Metropolitan Washington Economic Outlook: Tears in Our Beer or Dancing in the Streets?

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1 Metropolitan Washington Economic Outlook: Tears in Our Beer or Dancing in the Streets? Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University March 18, 215

2 (s) Annual Job Change Washington MSA, Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

3 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jan 214 Jan 215 Washington MSA (s) Total = 46,3 3 4 (2.) (1.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

4 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Jan 214 Jan 215 Washington +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

5 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

6 s Federal Employment in the Washington Metro Area, Eisenhower - 5 Kennedy Johnson + 74 Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush Obama = Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

7 (s) Annual Data Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Dec Sep Jun Mar Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan-15 Total: 362.3

8 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, FY TOTAL = $1,164.9 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov

9 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 28-Feb 21 Feb 21-Jan (s) Total -181 Total Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

10 Average Wage and Job Change Washington Metro Area (s) /21-11/214 Job Change (left axis) $ Professional & Business Services 48.6 $51.4 Education & Health Services 213 Wage (right axis) 58.1 $24.1 Leisure & Hospitality (s of 213 $s $1 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

11 (s of 213 $s) 72. Average Wages in the Washington Metro Area, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

12 The GRP* Effects of Private Sector Job Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Aug 28-Nov 214 (in 214 $s) Job Change Total GRP Value - 177,7 - $28,467,35, ,4 + $27,483,8, ,7 - $983,55, Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product 1 $156,199 per job contribution to GRP 2 $113,382 per job contribution to GRP

13 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change District of Columbia, Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

14 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16 12 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 5.6 U.S. 4.6 SMD 4.5 MSA NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)

17 The Household Income Effects of Structural Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Jurisdiction Median HH Income 213* Change from 29* District (DC) $67,575 $2,919 Frederick Cty 84,38 - $5,856 Montgomery Cty 98,326 - $4,552 Prince George s Cty 72,52 - $4,6 Arlington County 12,51 - $1,675 Fairfax County 111,79 - $249 Loudoun County 116,768 - $7,283 Prince Wm County 95,268 - $2,234 Alexandria City 86,775 $2,985 Total Metro Area $9,149 - $2,287 Source: U.S. Census, ACS 1-Year; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 213 dollars

18 Housing Market Trends

19 Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 2 215, MSA Feb = +13.7% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.

20 14, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Feb , 1, 8, 12-Month Moving Average 6, 4, 2, Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

21 Total Listings Per Sale Feb Each Year DC PG LDN PW ARL MONT FFX Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

22 (s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $362.2K Feb 215 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

23 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

24 % Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

25 % 3 Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

26 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

27 Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Detached % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb % : DC = -5.8 SM = -3.3 NV = +3.

28 Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Attached % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb % : DC = +3.3 SM = +2.6, NV = +5.6

29 Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Condos % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb % : DC = +1.5 SM = -4.4, NV = +4.4

30 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Washington MSA Building Permits , 3-Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

31 Total Active Listings Per Sale Feb Each Year Metro Area Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

32 Office Vacancy Rates Area Q4 213 Q4 214 Change WDC Vacancy 14.4% 13.% -1.4pp Asking Rents $5.96 $ % YTD Leasing 3,348,559 4,746, % NVA Vacancy 19.7% 21.1% 1.4pp Asking Rents $33.99 $ % YTD Leasing 5,65,671 3,696, % SMD Vacancy 18.3% 21.% 2.7pp Asking Rents $26.6 $ % YTD Leasing 1,973,629 1,337, % Source: Cushman & Wakefield

33 Percent Change in Real Property Assessments, % 15% 1% 5% DC VA MD 15% 15% 11% 7% % -5% -6% -1% -1% -13% -1% -15% -17% -16% -18% -18% -2% -23% -25% DC Alex Arl Ffx Fauq Loud P.W. Staff Calv Char Fred Mont P.G.

34 Nonresidential Shares of Property Tax Base, 25 to District of Columbia Alexandria Arlington Fairfax Fauquier Loudoun Prince William Stafford Calvert Charles Frederick Montgomery Prince George's % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

35 Percent Change in Nonresidential Assessed Valuation by Property Type % Alexandria Arlington Fairfax Loudoun Montgomery Prince George's 4% 41% 42% 4% 3% 2% 1% 25% 17% 2% 19% % -1% -8% -1% -2% 7% 8% -2% Multi-Family Other Nonresidential

36 % 4 2 U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP (Annual % Change) U.S. -2 Washington -4 Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 215

37 Where do we need to go? Rethinking The Regional Economy s Future: Exports are key: Scientific and Technical Services Higher Ed and Health Services Manufacturing Agriculture and Natural Resources Leisure and Hospitality Foreign Direct Investment High-value added employment: Builds the residentially based economy Strengthens the tax base.

38 High-Value Added Economic Development Targets of Opportunities Redevelop Union Station into a 21 st Century transportation, employment and residential center; Grow Dulles Airport into a center for global business building on connectivity to regional, national and world economies; Develop the Washington region as a global medical complex; Implement the White Oak Science Gateway Plan centered on FDA; Market the Washington region as a world-class cultural and sports visitor destination; Capitalize on the region s federal labs and centers: Fort Belvoir, Fort Meade/NSA, NASA, Cybersecurity/FBI, NIH/FDA/BioTech; Accelerate Prince Wm Cty/GMU Innovation /Technology Center.

39 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu

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