Singing the housing. Christopher Thornberg Principal
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1 Singing the housing blues Christopher Thornberg Principal Beacon Economics is an independent consulting firm providing a variety of economic support services to clients across the Western US. Our Services Include Custom Presentations for Public and Private Events Litigation Support and Damage Estimation Regional Economic Outlooks and Conferences Market Analysis and Forecasts Cost-Benefit Analyses Public Policy and Development Studies For more information Go to: Chris@BeaconEcon.com Call: Jon Haveman and Chris Thornberg are 1
2 Growth Decent, Labor Markets Solid GDP Growth SAAR Smoothed 300 New Payroll Jobs SA Smoothed 5.0% % 4.0% % 3.0% 2.5% Average M1 2004M3 2004M5 2004M7 2004M9 2004M M1 2005M3 2005M5 2005M7 2005M9 2005M M1 2006M3 2006M5 2006M7 2006M9 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2000Q1 2000Q3 US Unemployment Rate SA 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 Income / Spending stable Real Income Growth, SAAR Real Consumer Spending, SAAR 9.0% 7.0% 8.0% 6.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% Nov-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 2
3 3 California: Employment up, but slowing 16,000 16,200 16,400 16,600 16,800 17,000 17,200 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 May-06 Sep-06 14,700 14,900 15,100 15,300 15,500 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 May-06 Sep-06 Payroll Household California: still positive California Unemployment Rate Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nominal Income Growth 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% California Balance US
4 Other good indicators Hotel Occupancy Rates Office Vacancy Rates 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% 21.0% 19.0% 17.0% 15.0% 13.0% 11.0% Bay So-Cal 60.0% 55.0% Bay So-Cal 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 Wither California Manufacturing? Real Manufacturing Output (1997=100) CA US Share 2005 Manufacturing Employment Share by State 20% 15% 10% 5% y = x $32 $28 $24 $20 0% 97Q4 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Share Q4 California Exports ($Bil) 99Q4 00Q4 01Q4 02Q4 03Q4 04Q4 05Q4 4
5 Local Population Growth Slow, with low natural increases and net migration Est July 1 06 Ch Ann % Sacramento 1,394,074 91, % San Joaquin 673,954 65, % Santa Clara 1,784,390 63, % Contra Costa 1,033,992 44, % Stanislaus 518,596 39, % Alameda 1,515,859 27, % Solano 423,951 12, % Yolo 191,776 11, % Sonoma 481,078 11, % San Francisco 801,883 11, % San Mateo 726,516 10, % Napa 135,241 5, % Marin 254,234 3, % Mendocino 90,488 2, % San Francisco $759, San Mateo $760, Marin $795, Alameda $595, Napa $615, Sonoma $535, Santa Clara $677, Merced $350, San Joaquin $429, Yolo $405, Contra Costa $559, Stanislaus $368, Solano $458, Fresno $299, Kern $285, Sacramento $359, Placer $430, Tulare $260, Madera $290, Local Job Growth: Tepid Sonoma Payroll Employment Sep-Mar Mar-Sep Total 1,575-2,975-4, Government -2,000 1,350 3,350 Agriculture Education Healthcare Durables Financial Activities Other Wholesale Information Transport Utilities Retail Total Manufacturing Non-Durables ,000 Trade Transport ,300 Professional Serv ,450 Leisure 400-1,300-1,700 Construction ,750 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Household Employment -1,900-3,550-1,650 Civilian Labor Force -3,450-3,
6 A bit of perspective Index of Payroll Jobs: 2000 = East Bay San Francisco San Jose Santa Rosa 80.0 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Other solid signs Sonoma Unemployment Rate Sonoma Taxable Sales 5.9 2,100, ,000, ,900,000 1,800, ,700, ,600, Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 1,500, Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 6
7 Good news: Energy and Inflation Oil Prices Core Inflation SAAR $80 $70 $60 $50 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% $40 $30 2.0% $20 1.5% $10 $0 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan % Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 May-06 Sep-06 Equity markets hot 12, , , ,500.0 Dow Jones Industrials S&P 500 P/E Ratio 10, , Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 9,000.0 US Corporate Profits 8, , , , , , , , Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 7
8 The bond markets think maybe not Rates Stable The Yield Curve 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 10 Year T-Bill Fed Funds Rates 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 0.0% -3.0% Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-54 Jul-59 Jul-64 Jul-69 Jul-74 Jul-79 Jul-84 Jul-89 Jul-94 Jul-99 Jul-04 Forget about oil prices Real Oil Prices (Core CPI Deflated) 20.0% Gasoline / Average Hourly Earnings % % 14.0% % % % 0.0 Jan-75 Jan-77 Jan-79 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan % Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 8
9 Economic Fundamentals Trade Balance as % GDP US Private Savings Rates 2% 7% 1% 6% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -7% 59Q4 63Q4 67Q4 71Q4 75Q4 79Q4 83Q4 87Q4 91Q4 95Q4 99Q4 03Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 What has caused the recent surge in spending? Housing Prices and Jobs New US Housing Wealth as % of GDP 12.0% 8.0% Growth in Real Housing Prices (OHFEO) 20.0% 16.0% 4.0% 12.0% 8.0% 0.0% Growth in Jobs 4.0% -4.0% 0.0% 1969Q1 1972Q1 1975Q1 1978Q1 1981Q1 1984Q1 1987Q1 1990Q1 1993Q1 1996Q1 1999Q1 2002Q1 2005Q1 1969Q1 1972Q1 1975Q1 1978Q1 1981Q1 1984Q1 1987Q1 1990Q1 1993Q1 1996Q1 1999Q1 2002Q1 2005Q1 9
10 Its not just the size Real Price Appreciation by Region 70's 80's Current Pacific (California) 52.4% 43.0% 64.5% South Atlantic (Florida) 5.6% 11.0% 43.9% Middle Atlantic (New York) 3.2% 29.3% 42.9% New England (Massachusettes) 10.9% 24.4% 35.5% Mountain (Colorado) 32.0% -10.2% 34.2% West North Central (Minnesota) 15.5% -2.0% 15.8% East South Central (Tennessee) 6.5% 0.9% 11.0% East North Central (Illinois) 17.3% 13.7% 10.9% West South Central (Texas) 25.2% -20.5% 10.5% USA 17.2% 12.9% 33.8% And we have overbuilt. Real Residential Spending per US Household ($2000) Housing Starts per New Household $6,000 2 $5, $4, $3,000 $2, $1, Residential spending has added.5% growth annually to US GDP Construction, real estate and mortgage finance contributed 1/3 rd of all new US jobs between 2001 and
11 The old debate is it a bubble? US NAR Sales US New Housing Sales Q1 the proof of the Q1 pudding is in Q Q Q Q Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 the eating Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 California Real Estate So-Cal Unit Sales Bay Area Unit Sales Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-02 Jan-04 Prices: Existing Single Family Homes Price off Peak Current Alameda -$6,038 $618,139 Contra Costa -$14,693 $566,574 Marin -$46,205 $896,140 Napa -$17,846 $598,014 San Francisco -$1,936 $802,383 San Mateo -$22,263 $785,581 Sonoma -$36,425 $553,622 11
12 The spin continues 2,500 US Housing Permits SAAR US New Homes for Sale SA 75Q1 78Q1 81Q1 84Q1 87Q1 90Q1 93Q1 96Q1 99Q1 02Q1 05Q1 2,000 1,500 1, Q1 73Q1 76Q1 79Q1 82Q1 85Q1 88Q1 91Q1 94Q1 97Q1 00Q1 03Q1 06Q1 1.2 Is California Different? New Housing Starts / New Adults Rest of US California Rest of US Average California Average
13 Multifamily as % of New Residential Units Apartment Stocks Percent growth in the quantity of rental units (SAAR) 60% 50% 40% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Bay SoCal 30% 20% 10% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0% % 82Q2 84Q2 86Q2 88Q2 90Q2 92Q2 94Q2 96Q2 98Q2 00Q2 02Q2 04Q2 Over-Crowded Housing 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Los Angeles Orange County Fresno Riverside Honolulu New York San Diego Miami Ventura San Jose Houston Oakland San Francisco Dallas Sacramento San Antonio Fort Worth Bergen Salt Lake City Tucson Austin Chicago Fort Lauderdale Middlesex Raleigh Seattle Newark Greenville Orlando Grand Rapids Atlanta Percent of Occupied Housing with > 1 person per room 13
14 So-Cal Residential Permits Riverside Los Angeles Orange County Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 North Bay Res Permits: Slowing Residential Permits: Marin, Sonoma, Napa Non-Residential Permits: Marin, Sonoma, Napa Q3 1994Q1 1995Q3 1997Q1 1998Q3 2000Q1 2001Q3 2003Q1 2004Q3 2006Q Q3 1994Q2 1996Q1 1997Q4 1999Q3 2001Q2 2003Q1 2004Q4 2006Q3 14
15 Non-Res to pick up the slack? Investment, SAAR $Billions, Real $650 $600 Non-Res + Gov Residential $550 $500 $450 $ Which pop will it be? 1970's 1980's Real Housing Prices Real Housing Prices Employment Employment
16 The good news Housing is not that big a component of the economy Still a return to normalcy is a large drag The dollar is down, and will likely to continue to soften Demand for exports is up California is an export oriented state both for goods and services. A falling dollar will drive rates up, though Corporations are sitting on large war-chests Cash in the bank will help them weather future slowness Cyclical employment limited by lack of build-up Weak job growth in retail and manufacturing may mean less job growth Without a potential for large job losses, the slowdown in real estate may be gradual enough The Bad News For the Real Estate Industry 700, , , , , , ,000 0 Sales of Units in California
17 The wild card: wealth and debt $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $- New Housing Wealth $Billion % of PI % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19.0% Debt Payments as % of D isposable Incom e 18.5% 18.0% 17.5% 17.0% 16.5% 16.0% 92q1 93q1 94q1 95q1 96q1 97q1 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 Sales and Revenues Growth Strong $100,000 $95,000 $90,000 GF Revenues and Jobs Real General Fund Revenues 17,000 16,800 16,600 16,400 Current General Fund Budget Reserves $9,634 $7,031 Revenues $87,691 $91, % Expenditure $90,294 $97, % Remaining $7,031 $674 16,200 $85,000 16,000 15,800 $80,000 15,600 $75,000 State Employment 15,400 15,200 $70,000 15, Q2 1999Q1 1999Q4 2000Q3 2001Q2 2002Q1 2002Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2005Q4 Source: LAO 17
18 Where is it going? K-12 Education $ 37,855 $ 40, % Health and Human Services $ 26,965 $ 29, % Higher Education $ 10,395 $ 11, % Corrections and Rehabilitation $ 7,838 $ 8, % Legislative, Judicial, Executive $ 3,093 $ 3, % Business, Transportation & Housing $ 1,723 $ 3, % General Government $ 2,238 $ 2, % Resources $ 1,885 $ 1, % State and Consumer Services $ 576 $ % Labor and Workforce Development $ 89 $ % Environmental Protection $ 73 $ % Total $92,730 $101,261 General Fund Revenues ONLY The economy in the short run Positives Short run inflation forces are moderating / long run forces not an issue The Fed will continue to hold Employment / Income on track Negatives Fundamentals still out of whack The real estate bubble continues to pop, we have not hit the bottom yet! Overall, 2007 overall economic outlook remains very shaky 18
19 California Faces This Challenge and More Investment is not keeping up! 19
20 Bond Initiatives 1A Gas Sales Tax Security 1B - Transportation 1C-Housing 1D-Education 1E - Flood Protection Related: Prop 84, 87, 90 Initiatives by the Numbers: $37.2B 1A: restricts the use of ~$2B/yr 1B: $19.9B Transportation $11.3B congestion relief/road improvements $ 4.0B public transportation $ 3.1B trade infrastructure $ 1.5B safety and security 1C: $2.85B Housing $1.35B development programs $625M home ownership programs $590M multifamily housing programs 1D: $10.4B Education $7.3B K-12 $3.1B higher education 1E: $4.1 Flood Control $3.0B central valley 20
21 Budget Implications of the Nov. Bond Initiatives Alternative funding sources Pay as you go Allocate funds from general revenues Quite the opposite of common practice Revenue bonds Whatever happened to public/private partnerships? SB 760? User fees Tolls, gas taxes 21
22 Gas Taxes: Rates and Revenues - Inflation Adjusted - Real Revenue Real Tax Rate 5 24 Billions of 04 Dollars Cents per gallon California: A high tax state? California Rank US Avg Taxes and Fees Per Capita $5,267 9 $4,706 Taxes and Fees % Income 15.6% % Property Taxes 17.0% % Sales Taxes 23.3% % Income Taxes 21.5% % Other Taxes and Fees 38.2% % We aren t a high tax state, we are a dumb tax state. 22
23 Summary of Ballot Propositions Bonds are not a free lunch! Implicitly tax health and education spending They are temporary fixes for a long term problem This is not the end of infrastructure projects in CA This appears to be the only way to address the problem The political will to do the right thing is not there Beacon Economics is an independent consulting firm providing a variety of economic support services to clients across the Western US. Our Services Include Custom Presentations for Public and Private Events Litigation Support and Damage Estimation Regional Economic Outlooks and Conferences Market Analysis and Forecasts Cost-Benefit Analyses Public Policy and Development Studies For more information Go to: Chris@BeaconEcon.com Call: Jon Haveman and Chris Thornberg are 23
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