IFA Press Conference Digital World Europe. GfK 2013 IFA Press Conference Digital World

Transcription

1 IFA Press Conference Digital World Europe 1

2 The Damokles Sword4 Mache ich 2

3 In 2013, again DE and AT supposed to show the best development. Slight recovery in GB, while Southern Europe is still weak. Change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in % ,3-1,0 +0,4-0,3 +0,8 +0,9-2,9-1,4 +0,2 +0,8-2,0-1,5-1,7 +0,3 +1,0-0,4-6,5-4,0 Source: DIW (Stand: ) P, A, GR: Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst (Stand: ) 3

4 Expectations on Macro Environment 2012/2013 Germany with best preconditions GDP Growth in % tolast year Inflation in % tolast year Unemployment rate (in % 2013) GDP per Capita Constant Prices Consumer Confidence Germany France Great Britain Spain Italy Netherlands +0,9 +0,4 +1,1-1,3-0,7 +0,4 +1,9 +0,9 +1,9 +2,4 +1,8 + 1,8 5,3 10,5 8,7 25,7 11,1 5, Willingness to buy Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database 2012 Business GfK 2013 cycle IFA Press and Conference willingness Digital World to buy: Consumer survey of EU commission, GfK Marktforschung,

5 Expectations on Macro Environment 2012/2013 Germany with best preconditions GDP Growth in % tolast year Inflation in % tolast year Unemployment rate (in % 2013) GDP per Capita Constant Prices Consumer Confidence Turkey Poland Lithuania Croatia Hungary Russia +3,5 +2,1 +3,0 +1,0 +0,8 +3,8 +6,5 +2,7 +2,4 +3,0 +3,5 + 6,6 9,9 10,2 12,5 13,3 10,5 6, TRY PLN LTL HRK HTL RUB6 Willingness to buy Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database 2012 Business GfK 2013 cycle IFA Press and Conference willingness Digital World to buy: Consumer survey of EU commission, GfK Marktforschung,

6 Massive deterioration of the personal economic situation for the Southern European as well as French consumers. % of all peopleas of the age of 14 years I E F GB D A NL can afford almost everything. 4can hardly afford anything any more. 4can generally cope with their situation. 6

7 Having a look to the Digital World A fascinating world of innovation Home Entertainment Mobile Entertainment Communication Computing 7

8 Global Digital Market will notbe positive in 2013 in all regions forecast vs Small growth in Europe Europe North America 1,5% 3,1% Decline in developed Asia South America 2,7% Developed Asia Emerging Asia -0,3% 10,0% High growth in emerging Middle East / Africa 13,7% regions World 4,1% Global Sales development estimation in value % (based on ) GfK Jan

9 Europe Total is ¼ of the digital World Market. 25% 22% 21% 19% 19% 18% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 25% 24% 24% 24% 23% 23% 14% 14% 13% 12% 12% 11% 17% 19% 21% 23% 24% 25% 6,8% 7,6% 8,1% 7,4% 7,3% 7,5% 7,5% 7,2% 7,0% 7,7% 8,4% 9,1% FC 2014 FC Western Europe Eastern Europe North America Developed Asia Emerging Asia South America Middle East & Africa Total Europe slightly higher share than North America. However both regions as well as developed Asia are loosing shares. Global Sales Value % GfK estimated IFA Press Conference Digital World GfK Jan

10 In Western Europe Consumer mostly Smartphones or Tablet PC are prefered. SmartPhone Tablet PC LCD TV Notebook PC FC2013 FC2014 Sales Mio Units Western Europe Sales Mio units 10

11 In Eastern Europe LCD-TV is still growing. West SmartPhone 130 East SmartPhone 115 West Tablet 99 Share of Eastern Europe (units%) SmartPhone 18% 18% 22% 25% 28% TabletPC 3% 11% 18% 21% LCD TV 17% 20% 26% 31% 36% Notebook PC 21% 25% 30% 34% 36% Sales Mio Units Western Europe East Tablet West LCD TV East LCD TV West Notebook PC East Notebook PC FC2013 FC2014 Sales Mio units 11

12 Preference of digital World Products is different in Western and Eastern Europe. LCD-TV Share in Eastern Europe higher than in Western Europe Highest Share for Tablets in North America OTHERS LCD TV MOBILE PC TABLETS SMARTPHONE Western Europe Eastern Europe North America Global Sales Value %

13 Home and Mobile Entertainment: weak in Western Europe / Central Europe But positive in Eastern Europe TV / Video / Audio Value LC +/-% -18,1-10,6-10,6-9,2-18,2 5,4-13,2 22,3 25,8-18,9-16,7-17,9-2,7 7,1-15,2-14,9-10,0-21,5-8,1-5,5-15,8-6,3-4,3 7,7-14,9 12,3-1,7 7,2 25,0-9, < -15 GfK 2013 IFA Press Conference Digital < -10 World < -5 < -3-3 < -1-1 < 1 1 < 3 3 < 5 5 < < n.a. 13

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15 The Digital & Connected Europe Percentage of Population with Internet Access High Penetration Rates 97% 94% 92% 85% 76% 43% 48% 62% 65% 82% 70% 78% 88% 81% 80% 86% 49% 58% 66% 74% 75% 62% 65% 50% 31% 56% 51% 43% 46% 68% 60% 36% 48% 46% 31% 34% 44% 28% 47% 44% less than 40% 40% to 49% 50% to 59% 60% to 69% 70% to 79% 80% to 89% 90% and more Source: Internet World Stats 15

16 INTERNET ACCESS IS A FEATURE FOR ALL DIGITAL DEVICES. MP3 STB DVD DSC CAM NAVI Radio Game Console TV Smartphone PC (Desk Top Notebook Tablett) 16

17 Life has its own hidden forces, which you can only discover by living. SorenKierkegaard 17

18 LCD TV still big potential for growth. Europe Mio. LCD TV Smart TV: 46% Growth:+ 52% 3D: 52% Growth:+ 61% 50 In +: 4,3% Growth:+ 39% 18

19 OLED as wellas 4K the answergivenby manufacturers excellent colours Perfect black level Extremely thin Excellent 3D due to fast panels Large screen sizes available at start Brands: Samsung, LG, Panasonic, Sony 4x better resolution than FullHD First products already in stores Some models with Glass-less 3D Extreme panel screen sizes up to 84 Brands: Toshiba, Samsung, LG, Panasonic, Sony, etc. No 4k content in Europe Price: 84 =20k, 55 =4k Very limited availability of panels Price: 55 FHD: less than 10k 19

20 Buying a TV beside the price - consumer are mostly interested in 4 20

21 How to learn from mobile internet devices? Software solutions might generate more benefits for consumers and will help manufacturers to differentiate. Mobile with - blood pressure meter - Sleep and movement tracker - reminder for intake of pills - calorie counter - scale - Glucometers Mobile with - thermometer - humidity display - air-pressure measurement - weather forecast - wind speed display Mobile with - heart rate monitor - personal Trainer program - distance and time measurement - altitude difference measurement - speed tracker - Fish Finder - Golf GPS + guide - different form factor, e.g. watch Mobile with - shopping list management - locator for brands, shops 4 - bar code reader - NFC reader - Avatar Special focuson - Gaming: joystick connectable - Keyboard or e-guitar - Music/Movies Weather Sports Health Astrology Shopping MY INTERESTS: more than communication Mobile with - celestial chart - star constellations - daily updated horoscope - partner horoscope - Chinese horoscope Body& Soul Travel/ Outdoor Archeology/ Architecture 4 Mobile with - Weight Watchers functions (e.g. recipes, points value per food...) - ovulation calendar+accessories - Styling Studio for make-up, hairstyles, clothes, accessories Water/Shockproof Mobile with - GPS mapping for logbook, hiking, cycling, sight seeing, geocaching - compass - city maps with points of interests - solar charging - emergency call function Mobile with - water levels - laser distance measurement - digital detector - cross and line laser levels - building plans - Historical guides - Archeological insights - Home Control functions 21

22 Same for Smart TV: Usage of TV might be more than only entertainment. Health Shopping Education Body& Soul Assisted living Travel/ Outdoor Sports MY INTERESTS: more than Entertainment Archeology/ Architecture However Is Internet on TV as fast as Mobile Internet? 22

23 I find television very educating. Every time somebody turns on the set, I go into the other room and read a book. Groucho Marx e-readers in Europe sales Million units 11,2 9,5 5,5 0,

24 New product segments are coming up listen to your music. Europe Mio Smartphones will besold Headsets sales: 48 Mio Growth:+/-0% Headphone sales: 77 Mio Growth:+7% Docking Speakers sales: 5 Mio. Growth:+ 78% 24

25 Listening Music home and mobile growth Soundbars represent the largest growth segment at the time. Mini-/Micro Systems Docking Function needed Home Theatre Blu Ray development Streaming is growing by + 44% in value +7% 25

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27 ThankYou JUERGEN BOYNY GLOBAL DIRECTOR CONSUMER ELECTRONICS GFK RETAIL AND TECHNOLOGY GMBH NORDWESTRING 101 I D NUREMBERG I GERMANY T I M juergen.boyny@gfk.com 27