July Figure 1. 1 The index is set to 100 in House prices are deflated by country CPIs in most cases.

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1 July 2015 Globally, house prices continue a slow recovery. The Global House Price Index, an equally weighted average of real house prices in nearly 60 countries, inched up slowly during the past two years but has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels (Figure 1). 1 Figure 1 1 The index is set to 100 in House prices are deflated by country CPIs in most cases.

2 Cyprus Russia China Slovenia Latvia Singapore Italy Morocco France Japan Greece Finland Romania Vietnam Indonesia Slovak Republic Kazakhstan Brazil Mexico Taiwan Austria Korea Croatia Belgium Trinidad and Tobago Netherlands Spain Portugal Serbia Switzerland Macedonia United States Czech Republic South Africa Thailand Philippines Poland Bulgaria Canada Germany Malaysia Malta Australia Norway Israel New Zealand Denmark Luxembourg Hong Kong SAR Chile Lithuania Hungary Iceland India Colombia Peru United Kingdom Sweden Turkey Estonia United Arab Emirates Ireland Ukraine Latvia Greece Lithuania Spain Ireland Croatia Bulgaria Russia Hungary Poland Slovenia Estonia Cyprus Netherlands Iceland Kazakhstan Italy Denmark Slovak Republic Portugal United States South Africa France Malta Serbia Czech Republic United Kingdom Indonesia Japan Korea Macedonia Morocco Finland Belgium Mexico New Zealand Thailand Singapore Germany Luxembourg China Australia Chile Philippines Norway Canada United Arab Emirates Austria Sweden Switzerland Malaysia India Israel Colombia Taiwan Brazil Hong Kong SAR Peru 2 As noted in previous quarterly reports, the overall index conceals divergent patterns: since 2007:Q3 house prices rose in a third of the countries included in the index and fell in the other two-thirds (Figure 2). However, the picture may be changing: over the past year, real house prices increased in two-thirds of the countries and fell in the other third (Figure 3). Cumulative Real House Price Growth Since 2007:Q Sources: Bank of International Settlements, Colliers International, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Savills, and national sources Real House Price Growth Over the Past Year Figure 2 Sources: Bank of International Settlements, Colliers International, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Savills, Sinyi Real Estate Planning and Research, and national sources. Figure 3

3 3 A closer look at Figure 2 and 3 shows that many countries in which house prices had been falling (such as Spain and the United Arab Emirates) have seen increases over the past year. Conversely, some countries where prices had been rising rapidly (as Brazil, China and Peru) have seen moderation in the rate of increase or a fall over the past year. 2 As has been the case historically, house price growth and credit growth have gone hand-in-hand over the past five years (Figure 4). Clearly, however, credit growth is not the only predictor for the extent of house price growth; several other factors appear to be at play. House Prices and Credit Growth Figure 4 For OECD countries, house prices have grown faster than incomes and rents in almost half of the countries (Figures 5 and 6). These house price-to income and house price-to-rent ratios are highly correlated (Figure 7). 2 Two outliers, Qatar and Ukraine, were excluded from Figure 3 so changes in other countries could be seen clearly.

4 4 Figure 5 Figure 6

5 price-to-income ratio 5 House Price-to-Income vs. House Price-to-Rent Ratio, OECD Countries AUT DEU PRT ITA IRL SVN GBR EST BEL CZE AUS JPN SWE DNK USA FRA FIN KOR CHE LUX NZL CAN NOR NLD SVK 80 ESP HUN GRC Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development price-to-rent ratio Figure 7 This update was produced by Hites Ahir (IMF), Philippe Bracke (Bank of England), Ambrogio Cesa- Bianchi (Bank of England), Prakash Loungani (IMF) and Alessandro Rebucci (Johns Hopkins University, Carey Business School, Edward St. John Real Estate Program). Views expressed are those of the authors and should not be ascribed to any of the institutions with which they are affiliated.

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