CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN September 12-16, 2004 q1 How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2004 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Total Rep Dem Ind 9/6-8/04 A lot 52 55 50 52 51 Some 35 36 34 34 37 Not much 10 8 12 11 11 No attention so far 3 2 4 2 2 DK/NA 0 0 0 1 0 q2 Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about John Kerry yet to have an opinion? Favorable 31 7 61 27 32 Unfavorable 42 75 10 38 41 Undecided 22 15 24 26 19 Haven't heard enough 5 4 4 9 7 Refused 0 0 1 0 1 q3 Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about George W. Bush yet to have an opinion? Favorable 47 85 9 42 47 Unfavorable 38 8 72 36 39 Undecided 14 7 17 19 12 Haven't heard enough 1 0 1 3 1 Refused 0 0 1 0 1 q4 How likely is it that you will vote in the 2004 election for President this November -- would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the election for President? Definitely vote 89 93 89 83 Probably vote 9 6 10 12 Probably not vote 2 1 1 3 Definitely not vote 0 0 0 0 DK/NA 0 0 0 2 q5 If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice-President, the Democrats, and George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice-President, the Republicans, would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney? [CANDIDATES' NAMES AND ANSWER CODES WILL ROTATE] John Kerry 42 9 83 39 42 George W.Bush 50 87 11 47 50 Other (Vol.) 1 0 0 2 0 Won't vote (Vol.) 1 0 0 1 0 Depends (Vol.) 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 4 2 5 9 7
q7 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Kerry Bush Total Supporters Supporters 9/6-8/04 % % % % Mind made up 77 81 86 78 Too early to say for sure 15 19 14 14 DK/NA 1 0 0 0 No choice in q5 7 0 0 8 q8 Would you describe your support for George W. Bush as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates? BUSH SUPPORTERS Strongly favor 63 74 46 45 63 Like but with reservations 27 20 29 39 28 Dislike other candidates 9 5 21 14 7 DK/NA 1 1 4 2 2 q9 Would you describe your support for John Kerry as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates? KERRY SUPPORTERS Strongly favor 40 7 52 24 45 Like but with reservations 27 29 25 30 24 Dislike other candidates 31 62 22 43 29 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 2 q10 If the 2004 Presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice-President, the Democrats; George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice-President, the Republicans, and Ralph Nader for President and Peter Camejo for Vice-President, would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards; George W. Bush and Dick Cheney; or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo? John Kerry 41 7 83 37 42 George W. Bush 50 87 11 45 49 Ralph Nader 3 2 2 6 1 Other (vol.) 0 0 0 1 0 Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1 1 1 2 1 Depends (vol.) 1 1 0 1 1 DK/NA 4 2 3 8 6
q11 Regardless of how you intend to vote for President in 2004, who do you expect to finally win the 2004 Presidential election -- John Kerry or George W. Bush? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Total Rep Dem Ind Mar04a John Kerry 27 7 52 23 35 George W. Bush 61 86 36 59 44 Depends (vol.) 2 1 3 2 3 DK/NA 10 6 9 16 18 q12 If the 2004 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? Aug04a Republican 39 80 6 28 35 Democratic 41 6 86 35 43 Other (vol.) 0 0 0 1 0 Won't vote (vol.) 0 0 0 1 11 Depends (vol.) 8 7 4 13 11 DK/NA 12 7 4 22 q13 So far, would you be more likely to describe the 2004 Presidential campaign as interesting or dull? Oct00l Interesting 67 70 74 58 56 Dull 29 26 23 38 39 DK/NA 4 4 3 4 5 q14 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** 9/6-8/04 Approve 50 87 16 46 50 Disapprove 42 11 77 40 43 DK/NA 8 2 6 14 7 q15 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right direction 41 74 13 35 44 Wrong track 51 20 83 53 52 DK/NA 8 6 4 12 4
q16 Which ONE issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2004 presidential campaign? Total Rep Dem Ind 9/6-8/04 Economy and jobs 24 19 25 25 30 War in Iraq 17 11 25 16 15 Health care/medicare/rx 16 11 19 17 14 Terrorism (general) 6 9 2 5 7 Defense/foreign policy 6 8 3 5 5 Education 5 5 6 4 4 Abortion 2 5 1 1 2 Social Security 2 2 1 2 1 Taxes/IRS 2 3 0 3 3 Security/Safety 2 3 1 2 2 Other 11 17 12 12 7 DK/NA 7 7 5 8 10 q17 From what you have seen or heard, do you think either candidate is talking about that issue? IF YES, ASK: Which candidate? Yes, Kerry 16 7 27 17 Yes, Bush 16 27 3 14 Yes, Both 24 27 23 23 No 35 30 38 36 DK/NA 3 3 5 2 No issue in q16 6 6 4 8 q18 How about the economy? Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Approve 43 74 14 39 44 Disapprove 50 19 81 51 48 DK/NA 7 7 5 10 8 q19 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? Approve 46 79 17 40 45 Disapprove 49 18 79 53 48 DK/NA 5 3 4 7 7 q20 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the campaign against terrorism? Approve 59 88 30 56 62 Disapprove 35 9 62 36 31 DK/NA 6 3 8 8 7
q21 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Total Rep Dem Ind 9/6-8/04 Very good 3 7 2 1 6 Fairly good 51 74 26 52 50 Fairly bad 31 13 51 31 30 Very bad 12 4 21 12 13 DK/NA 3 2 0 4 1 q22 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better 26 48 7 22 28 Worse 27 10 46 27 27 Same 45 41 46 48 44 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 1 q23 In the last four years, has the number of jobs in your community increased, decreased, or stayed about the same? Increased 18 29 6 17 21 Decreased 45 28 66 42 43 Stayed about the same 31 36 23 34 30 DK/NA 6 7 5 7 6 q24 Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about John Edwards yet to have an opinion? Favorable 28 11 52 24 34 Unfavorable 22 43 2 19 20 Undecided 16 17 13 20 14 Haven't heard enough 33 29 33 36 31 Refused 1 0 0 1 1 q25 Is your opinion of Dick Cheney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Dick Cheney yet to have an opinion? Favorable 32 62 7 24 36 Unfavorable 33 8 60 34 33 Undecided 16 14 15 21 14 Haven't heard enough 18 16 17 20 16 Refused 1 0 1 1 1 q26 Compared to past presidential campaigns, do you think the campaign this year has been more positive, more negative, or about the same as past campaigns? More positive 9 14 7 7 More negative 45 42 49 44 About the same 44 43 42 47 DK/NA 2 1 2 2
q27 Do you think the policies of the Bush Administration have increased the number of jobs in the United States, decreased the number of jobs, or have the policies of the Bush Administration not affected the number of jobs? Total Rep Dem Ind Jun04a Increased 20 36 5 18 24 Decreased 46 21 75 43 45 No effect 26 32 15 29 23 DK/NA 8 11 5 10 7 q28 Do you think the policies of the Bush Administration have made the United States safer from terrorism, less safe from terrorism, or have the policies of the Bush Administration not affected the U.S.' safety from terrorism? 9/6-8/04 Safer 55 85 26 51 57 Less safe 24 6 46 22 22 No effect 17 6 23 22 17 DK/NA 4 3 5 5 4 q29 Do you think the policies of the Bush Administration have increased the cost of prescription drugs for the elderly, decreased the cost or have the policies of the Administration not affected the cost of prescription drugs for the elderly? Mar04a Increased 41 19 66 39 34 Decreased 11 15 8 9 8 Not affected 27 36 13 29 27 DK/NA 21 30 13 23 31 q30 How much do you think George W. Bush cares about the needs and problems of people like you -- a lot, some, not much, or none at all? Jul04d A lot 29 57 5 22 29 Some 29 31 24 32 30 Not much 22 8 35 26 19 None at all 19 4 35 20 20 DK/NA 1 0 1 0 2 q31 Do you think George W. Bush has the same priorities for the country as you have, or not? 9/6-8/04 Has 47 81 14 43 47 Does not have 51 17 85 55 47 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 6
q32 Do you think George W. Bush shares the moral values most Americans try to live by, or doesn't he? Total Rep Dem Ind May04b Does 66 90 41 65 62 Does not 29 7 53 29 30 DK/NA 5 3 6 6 8 q33 Do you think George W. Bush says what he really believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear? 9/6-8/04 Says what he believes 55 83 24 53 56 What people want to hear 43 15 72 45 40 DK/NA 2 2 4 2 4 q34 Do you think George W. Bush has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Has 63 92 32 61 64 Does not have 35 7 65 37 34 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 2 q36 Whether or not you approve of his policies, do you think of George W. Bush as someone you would like personally? Jul04d Yes 60 90 31 55 53 No 34 8 61 37 39 DK/NA 6 2 8 8 8 q37 Do you think George W. Bush is the kind of person who is able to admit it when he makes a mistake or isn't he that kind of person? Jun04a Is that kind of person 47 76 16 46 45 Isn't that kind of person 48 18 80 50 51 DK/NA 5 6 4 4 4 q38 Do you think George W. Bush is the kind of person who listens to different points of view or isn't he that kind of person? Is that kind of person 62 84 36 63 54 Isn't that kind of person 34 13 61 32 42 DK/NA 4 3 3 5 4 q39 How much do you think John Kerry cares about the needs and problems of people like you -- a lot, some, not much or none at all? Jul04d A lot 25 11 47 18 32 Some 39 39 37 41 40 Not much 19 25 10 21 14 None at all 12 19 2 13 8 DK/NA 5 6 4 7 6
q40 Do you think John Kerry has the same priorities for the country as you have, or not? Total Rep Dem Ind 9/6-8/04 Has 44 19 75 42 38 Does not have 48 76 17 48 48 DK/NA 8 5 8 10 14 q41 Do you think John Kerry shares the moral values most Americans try to live by, or doesn't he? May04b Does 55 32 81 55 59 Does not 31 54 8 29 25 DK/NA 14 13 11 16 16 q42 Do you think John Kerry says what he really believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear? 9/6-8/04 Says what he believes 30 11 59 24 32 What people want to hear 63 84 34 70 59 DK/NA 7 5 7 6 9 q43 Do you think John Kerry has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Has 50 26 80 48 51 Does not have 42 67 13 42 40 DK/NA 8 7 7 10 9 q45 Whether or not you approve of his policies, do you think of John Kerry as someone you would like personally? Jul04d Yes 50 28 75 49 52 No 39 64 15 36 34 DK/NA 11 8 10 15 14 q46 Do you think John Kerry is the kind of person who is able to admit it when he makes a mistake or isn't he that kind of person? Jun04a Is that kind of person 47 25 72 46 46 Isn't that kind of person 39 61 15 38 32 DK/NA 14 14 13 16 22 q47 Do you think John Kerry is the kind of person who listens to different points of view or isn't he that kind of person? Is that kind of person 74 62 87 73 71 Isn't that kind of person 17 27 7 17 17 DK/NA 9 11 6 10 12
q50 Do you have confidence in George W. Bush's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, or are you uneasy about his approach? Total Rep Dem Ind 9/6-8/04 Confidence 51 82 18 48 51 Uneasy 48 17 81 49 47 DK/NA 1 1 1 3 2 q51 Do you have confidence in George W. Bush's ability to make the right decisions about the nation's economy, or are you uneasy about his approach? Confidence 42 76 10 34 41 Uneasy 56 23 89 61 56 DK/NA 2 1 1 5 3 q52 If George W. Bush is re-elected President in November, how much confidence do you have that he would make the right decisions when it comes to protecting the country from terrorist attack -- a lot, some, not much, or none at all? A lot 50 83 17 46 47 Some 26 13 37 29 26 Not much 12 1 21 16 12 None at all 12 2 25 9 14 DK/NA 0 1 0 0 1 q53 If George W. Bush is re-elected President in November, do you think your taxes will go up, go down or stay about the same? Aug04a Go up 36 14 59 39 36 Go down 5 9 2 3 5 Stay about the same 55 73 37 53 55 DK/NA 4 4 2 5 4 q54 If George W. Bush is re-elected President in November, do you think the threat of another terrorist attack in the United States will increase, decrease, or stay about the same? Increase 25 9 46 24 Decrease 12 24 4 8 stay about the same 60 66 49 65 DK/NA 3 1 1 3 q55 What do you think George W. Bush has been spending more time doing in his campaign -- explaining what he would do as president or attacking John Kerry? 9/6-8/04 Explaining 47 72 20 47 49 Attacking 45 20 72 45 41 Don't know/no answer 8 8 8 8 10
q56 Do you think George W. Bush has been spending too much time talking about the past, or don't you think that? Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Yes, too much past 41 21 61 44 Balance about right 52 73 32 47 Too much about future (vol.) 4 4 3 4 DK/NA 3 2 4 5 q57 Do you think George W. Bush has made it clear what he wants to accomplish in the next four years as president? 9/6-8/04 Yes 50 71 34 44 54 No 44 24 61 51 40 DK/NA 6 5 5 5 6 q58 Do you have confidence in John Kerry's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, or are you uneasy about his approach? Confidence 32 8 65 26 35 Uneasy 60 86 28 63 57 DK/NA 8 6 7 11 8 q59 Do you have confidence in John Kerry's ability to make the right decisions about the nation's economy, or are you uneasy about his approach? Confidence 43 17 74 41 42 Uneasy 51 80 21 49 52 DK/NA 6 3 5 10 6 q60 If John Kerry is elected President in November, how much confidence do you have that he would make the right decisions when it comes to protecting the country from terrorist attack -- a lot, some, not much, or none at all? A lot 26 7 53 21 26 Some 37 34 35 43 34 Not much 19 28 7 20 20 None at all 16 29 4 14 17 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 3 q61 If John Kerry is elected President in November, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? Aug04a Go up 51 69 26 56 45 Go down 6 3 12 5 6 Stay about the same 38 24 57 33 42 DK/NA 5 4 5 6 7
q62 If John Kerry is elected President in November, do you think the threat of another terrorist attack in the United States will increase, decrease, or stay about the same? Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Increase 27 45 11 23 Decrease 13 5 26 9 Stay about the same 57 48 61 63 DK/NA 3 2 2 5 q63 What do you think John Kerry has been spending more time doing in his campaign -- explaining what he would do as president or attacking George W. Bush? 9/6-8/04 Explaining 37 17 59 35 42 Attacking 54 75 32 54 47 Don't know/no answer 9 8 9 11 11 q64 Do you think John Kerry has been spending too much time talking about the past, or don't you think that? Yes, too much past 52 70 31 53 Balance about right 39 24 57 37 Too much about future (vol.) 4 2 7 5 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 q65 Do you think John Kerry has made it clear what he wants to accomplish in the next four years as president? Yes 38 20 63 34 40 No 57 76 33 61 55 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 5 q66 In his statements about his service in the National Guard, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying? Entire truth 20 32 6 20 Hiding something 51 54 54 45 Mostly lying 20 5 34 23 Depends (vol.) 0 0 0 1 DK/NA 9 9 6 11 q67 In his statements about his service in Vietnam, do you think John Kerry is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying? Entire truth 29 11 52 25 Hiding something 49 53 41 51 Mostly lying 13 25 2 10 Depends (vol.) 0 0 0 1 DK/NA 9 11 5 13
q68 Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Total Rep Dem Ind 9/6-8/04 Right thing 54 79 29 53 52 Stay out 39 17 66 37 41 Don't know/no answer 7 4 5 10 7 q71 How likely do you think it is that there will be another terrorist attack on the United States within the next few months -- very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely? Aug04a Very likely 18 12 21 20 17 Somewhat likely 48 51 46 47 50 Not very likely 23 27 21 20 20 Not at all likely 8 9 7 9 8 Don't know/no answer 3 1 5 4 5 q72 How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq? Would you say things are going very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly? Aug04a Very well 4 7 2 3 5 Somewhat well 42 59 25 40 41 Somewhat badly 26 25 29 24 32 Very badly 25 7 42 28 19 Don't know/no answer 3 2 2 5 3 q73 Should the United States troops stay in Iraq as long as it takes to make sure Iraq is a stable democracy, even if that takes a long time, or should U.S. troops leave Iraq as soon as possible, even if Iraq is not completely stable? Jun04a Stay as long as it takes 54 77 32 53 54 Leave as soon as possible 39 18 61 40 40 Don't know/no answer 7 5 7 7 6 q74 Have there been more American military casualties in the war with Iraq than you expected, fewer than you expected, about as many as you expected, or aren't you sure yet how many American military casualties there have been? Apr03b More 45 32 62 42 12 Fewer 17 24 8 18 44 About as many as expected 22 32 12 23 17 Not sure how many 13 9 16 13 24 DK/NA 3 3 2 4 3
q77 When he talks about how things are going for the U.S. in Iraq today, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying? HALF SAMPLE Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Entire truth 20 38 4 19 Truth, but hiding something 51 53 52 49 Mostly lying 24 4 40 28 Depends (vol.) 0 1 0 0 DK/NA 5 4 4 4 q78 Do you think Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Jun04a % Yes 39 49 31 36 41 No 50 38 58 53 46 DK/NA 11 13 11 11 13 q79 Do you think the U.S. will be able to capture or kill Osama bin Laden before the November election, sometime after the November election, or will the U.S. probably never capture or kill Osama bin Laden? Before November 9 10 9 9 After November 39 52 29 35 Never capture 38 23 47 44 Already captured/killed (v 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 12 13 13 10 q80 How much have you heard or read about the advertisements sponsored by a group of Swift Boat Veterans who have questioned John Kerry's war record -- a lot, some, not much, or nothing so far? A lot 28 28 29 29 Some 34 36 35 33 Not much 17 16 19 17 Nothing so far 20 20 18 20 DK/NA 1 0 0 1
q81 From what you know, are the charges in the ads against John Kerry mostly true or mostly false? VOTERS WHO KNOW ABOUT ADS Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Mostly true 33 58 12 27 Mostly false 47 16 75 52 DK/NA 20 26 13 21 q82 From what you know, do you think there has been coordination between the Bush campaign and the people running the Swift Boat ads, or hasn't there been? Yes, coordination 42 18 65 46 No, not coordination 41 65 18 38 DK/NA 17 17 17 16 q83 From what you've heard or read about the Swift boat ads, do you think the veterans in the ads represent the views of most Vietnam war veterans, or are they speaking only for themselves? Most Vietnam veterans 23 37 6 24 Speaking for themselves 64 47 82 64 DK/NA 13 16 12 12 q84 How much have you heard or read about testimony John Kerry gave to a Congressional committee when he returned from Vietnam -- a lot, some, not much, or nothing so far? A lot 14 17 14 13 Some 31 32 28 32 Not much 27 26 27 27 Nothing so far 27 25 29 28 DK/NA 1 0 2 0 q85 How does John Kerry's testimony affect what kind of president he might be? Would it make him a more effective president, a less effective president, or does his testimony not affect the kind of president he would be? VOTERS WHO KNOW ABOUT KERRY S TESTIMONY More effective 22 6 40 22 Less effective 33 58 7 27 Doesn't affect 39 29 48 41 DK/NA 6 7 5 10 q87 Have you yourself ever served in the U.S. armed forces or the U.S. reserves? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Yes 16 18 15 17 No 84 82 85 83
q88 Do you or does any member of your immediate family now serve in the armed forces or in the U.S. reserves? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % No 78 76 82 77 Yes, self 2 2 1 3 Yes, other 19 21 16 19 Yes, self and other 0 1 0 0 DK/NA 1 0 1 1 q89 How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Jun04a % Very concerned 30 17 43 31 28 Somewhat concerned 26 22 31 27 27 Not at all concerned 44 61 26 42 45 DK/NA 0 0 0 0 0 q90 Do you or does someone in your household belong to a labor union? No 80 85 73 80 Yes, self 10 8 15 9 Yes, other 8 6 11 9 Yes, self and other 1 0 1 1 DK/NA 1 1 0 1 q91 Some people think of themselves as evangelical or born again Christians. Do you ever think of yourself in either of these ways? Yes 31 40 26 27 No 68 59 74 72 DK/NA 1 1 0 1 q92 How much confidence do you have that the votes in your state will be counted properly this November -- a lot, some, not much, or no confidence at all? Jul04c A lot 65 79 57 60 63 Some 24 16 30 25 25 Not much 5 3 6 4 6 No confidence at all 4 1 4 7 4 DK/NA 2 1 3 4 2
q93 Regardless of what you think of George W. Bush now, looking back to 2000, would you say George W. Bush legitimately won the 2000 presidential election, or not? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Jul04c Legitimately won 51 85 19 47 49 Did not win legitimately 44 12 77 45 46 DK/NA 5 3 4 8 5 UNWEIGHTED Total Respondents 1287 WEIGHTED Total Republicans 462 426 Total Democrats 394 399 Total Independents 431 462 Half Sample 640 649 Registered Voters 1088 1048