DUI: Long Ago, Far Away, No Effect

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS POLL: TRACKING #18 - EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 9 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 5, 2000 DUI: Long Ago, Far Away, No Effect When it comes to a 24-year-old drunken driving arrest, hardly anyone gives a hoot. Only seven percent of likely voters in the latest ABC News tracking poll say George W. Bush s arrest on that distant evening in Kennebunkport raises serious questions about his qualifications for the presidency. Only five percent say it makes them much less likely to support him. And in both cases, nearly all those who do care already support Al Gore. The revelation certainly got quick currency: By Friday night, 91 percent of likely voters had heard or read about it. But it didn t change a thing: Bush has 49 percent support, Gore 45 percent, Ralph Nader three and Pat Buchanan one essentially where the race has been, give or take a few points, since Labor Day. Bush has held a numerical lead one to five points in 18 of 22 ABC News polls dating to Sept. 6. (Three others were a tie and it was Gore +2 back on Oct. 1). While it s Bush s edge, that is a close race; turnout may make the difference, so can the battle in individual Bush 40 Gore The 2000 Election ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post Polls Results are among likely voters 10 Nader 0 Buchanan May July Aug Oct Nov states, and so can a late change among lightly committed voters. Consider the last time a race looked this close: The final Gallup poll on Nov. 2, 1980, had a slim three-point lead for Ronald Reagan, percent. But two days later it wasn t close at all: Reagan won by 10 points, percent, in an electoral landslide.

2 Of course the purpose of pre-election polls goes well beyond the horse race; fundamentally they re an effort to find out what issues voters care about, and why. They also show what issues people don t care about, and the Bush DUI of 1976 is one. Eighty-two percent of likely voters say the incident isn t relevant to the campaign; among the 17 percent who say it is relevant, virtually all are Gore supporters anyway. Among Bush supporters, exactly one person in this poll said the DUI raises serious concern. Similarly, just five percent of all likely voters say the arrest makes them much less likely to support him, including all of two Bush supporters. About as many likely voters, four percent, say it makes them much more likely to vote for him. These results are in line with past ABC News polling on misbehavior by political figures. Few people tend to be concerned with long-past misdeeds involving personal behavior; of far greater concern are current actions and allegations of professional malfeasance. Supporters of Arrest raises serious concerns All Bush Gore about Bush s qualifications 7% <1% 16 Much less likely to support Bush 5 <1 10 Think it s relevant to the campaign METHODOLOGY - This poll was conducted by telephone Nov. 1-3, 2000, among a random national sample of 1,495 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: Here are the full results (* is less than 0.5 percent.). Call for full trend. 3. The candidates in November's presidential election are (Al Gore and Joseph Lieberman, the Democrats,) (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke of the Green Party) and (Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster of the Reform Party). If the election were being held today, who would you vote for - (Gore), (Bush), (Nader) or (Buchanan)? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op * * * 2 11/2/ * * * 2 11/1/ * * 2 10/31/ * 3 * * * 2 10/30/ * 3 * * * 1 10/29/ * 3 * * * 2 10/28/ * * * 2 10/27/ * 1 * 2 10/26/ * * * 2 10/25/ * * * 2

3 10/24/ * 2 10/23/ * 0 * 2 10/22/ * * * 2 10/21/ * * * 2 10/20/ * * * 2 10/19/ * /18/ * /17/ * /15/ * * 3 10/9/ * 3 * 1 * 2 10/1/ * * 2 9/6/ * /20/ * * 1 8/10/ * * * 1 8/6/ * 0 * 2 7/29/ * 1 7/23/ * 1 1 6/11/ * * 2 5/10/ * 2 4. Do you support (Gore/Bush/Buchanan/Nader) strongly, or not strongly? Gore Bush Nader*----- Strng Not No op. Strng Not No op. Strng. Not No op. Likely Voters: /2/ /1/ /31/ /30/ /29/ /28/ /27/ /26/ /25/ /24/ /23/ /21/ /20/ /19/ /18/ /17/ *Includes aggregated data from all tracking waves to date. 5. Will you definitely vote for (Gore/Bush/Nader/Buchanan) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? Is there a good chance you'll change your mind or would you say it's pretty unlikely? Likely Voters: Change mind Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion Gore Bush Nader* *Includes aggregated data from all tracking waves to date. 6. If the only candidates were (Gore) and (Bush), who would you vote for? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin /2/ /1/ /31/ * /30/ * /29/ * 1 1

4 10/28/ * /27/ * /26/ * /25/ * /24/ * 1 10/23/ /22/ /21/ * /20/ /19/ /18/ /9/ * In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Satisfied Dissatisfied No opinion Likely Voters /2/ Have you read or heard anything about George W. Bush being arrested for drunken driving in 1976? Yes No No opin. All 91 9 * Gore supporters Bush supporters 91 8 * Democrats Republicans Independents Does knowing about this arrest raise questions in your mind about whether Bush is qualified to be president, or not? (IF YES) Is it a serious concern, or not serious? Yes Serious Not serious NET concern concern No No opin. All Gore supporters Bush supporters 5 * Democrats Republicans Independents * 10. As a result of the reports about Bush s drunken driving arrest in 1976, are you (more likely to vote for him), (less likely to vote for him), or won t it make any difference in your vote? ----More likely Less likely---- No No NET Much Somewhat NET Much Somewhat diff. opin. All Gore supporters Bush supporters * Democrats * Republicans Independents Do you think Bush s drunken driving arrest in 1976 is or is not relevant to the presidential race? Relevant Not relevant No opinion All

5 Gore supporters Bush supporters Democrats Republicans Independents ***END***