BUMP FOR TRUMP AS CARSON FADES IN REPUBLICAN RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; CLINTON, SANDERS SURGE IN MATCHUPS WITH GOP LEADERS

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1 Tim Malloy, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) FOR RELEASE: DECEMBER 2, 2015 BUMP FOR TRUMP AS CARSON FADES IN REPUBLICAN RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; CLINTON, SANDERS SURGE IN MATCHUPS WITH GOP LEADERS Eleven months before the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump is the undisputed leader in the Republican field, as Dr. Ben Carson, in a virtual tie with Trump four weeks ago, drops to third place, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton widens her lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont to percent, compared to percent in a November 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O Malley has 2 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Trump gets 27 percent of Republican voters today, with 17 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, 16 percent each for Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and 5 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Last month, Trump had 24 percent, with 23 percent for Carson. Among Republicans, 26 percent of voters say they would definitely not support Trump, with 21 percent who would not back Bush. It doesn t seem to matter what he says or who he offends, whether the facts are contested or the political correctness is challenged, Donald Trump seems to be wearing Kevlar, said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. Dr. Ben Carson, moving to center stage just one month ago, now needs some CPR. The Doctor sinks. The Donald soars. The GOP, 11 months from the election, has to be thinking, This could be the guy. GOP s guy. Secretary Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders have to be hoping Trump is the -more-

2 Quinnipiac University Poll/December 2, 2015 page 2 American voters shift to Clinton as the Democrat gains ground against Republicans: percent over Trump, compared to percent November 4; Clinton at 45 percent to Rubio s 44 percent, compared to a percent Rubio lead last month; Clinton tops Cruz percent, compared to Cruz at 46 percent to Clinton s 43 percent last month; Clinton at 46 percent to Carson s 43 percent compared to Carson s percent lead last month. Sanders does just as well, or even better, against top Republicans: Topping Trump percent; Getting 44 percent to Rubio s 43 percent; Beating Cruz percent; Leading Carson percent. Clinton has a negative percent favorability rating. Other favorability ratings are: Negative percent for Trump; percent for Carson; percent for Sanders; percent for Rubio; percent for Cruz. American voters say percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Trump is not honest and trustworthy, voters say percent. Sanders gets the best honesty grades among top candidates, percent, with Carson at percent, Rubio at percent and Cruz at percent. All American voters say percent, including percent among independent voters, that Clinton would have a good chance of beating the Republican nominee in a head-tohead matchup. Voters are divided percent on whether Trump would have a good chance of beating the Democratic nominee, with independent voters divided percent. From November 23 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,453 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 672 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 573 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit call (203) , or follow us on 2

3 1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 5% 1% 4% 6% 2% 7% 5% 5% Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Kasich Pataki Paul Rubio Santorum Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA MOST IMPORTANT FOR REP PRES NOMINEE Q70 Shares Strong Honest/ Values Leader Trustworthy Bush 2% 2% 3% Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Kasich Pataki Paul Rubio Santorum Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Cont d 3

4 1. (cont d)(if Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q72... Economy/ Foreign Jobs Terrorism Policy Bush 8% 5% 3% Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Kasich Pataki Paul Rubio Santorum Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1-2 DK/NA A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1... Tot Carson Cruz Rubio Trump Made up 32% 26% 33% 23% 46% Might change DK/NA

5 2. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Huckabee, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 21% 25% 17% 27% 20% 15% 23% 18% Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Kasich Pataki Paul Rubio Santorum Trump No/No one DK/NA (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Clinton 60% 48% 60% 62% 53% 65% O'Malley Sanders SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA MOST IMPORTANT FOR DEM PRES NOMINEE Q69... Shares Strong Honest/ Right Values Leader Trustworthy Cares Experience Clinton 58% 70% 44% 53% 81% O'Malley Sanders SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q71 Economy/ Foreign Jobs Policy Clinton 59% 64% O'Malley 3 1 Sanders SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - DK/NA

6 3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q3... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q3 Tot Clinton Sanders Mind made up 57% 62% 50% Might change DK/NA (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president: Clinton, O'Malley, or Sanders? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Clinton 8% 2% 7% 11% 12% 6% O'Malley Sanders No/No one DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ben Carson the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 46% 8% 89% 41% 39% 53% 54% 42% Carson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Clinton 49% 51% 48% 38% 32% 43% 38% 82% 74% Carson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

7 6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 47% 7% 91% 45% 39% 56% 55% 44% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Clinton 52% 50% 49% 39% 31% 45% 38% 87% 76% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 45% 7% 87% 40% 36% 53% 51% 41% Rubio SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Clinton 45% 49% 47% 40% 30% 42% 36% 83% 69% Rubio SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 47% 8% 90% 43% 39% 55% 55% 43% Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Clinton 51% 50% 49% 39% 32% 45% 39% 84% 72% Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

8 9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ben Carson the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 47% 11% 84% 47% 41% 53% 52% 45% Carson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Sanders 60% 49% 46% 35% 35% 46% 40% 77% 72% Carson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 49% 11% 86% 52% 43% 55% 56% 46% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Sanders 62% 49% 48% 40% 36% 47% 42% 82% 78% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 44% 7% 81% 45% 39% 49% 48% 43% Rubio SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Sanders 59% 46% 43% 33% 33% 40% 37% 80% 68% Rubio SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

9 12. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 49% 9% 87% 51% 43% 54% 54% 46% Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Sanders 62% 50% 49% 34% 37% 45% 41% 86% 71% Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Q Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable). REGISTERED VOTERS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Sanders Rubio Carson Cruz Fiorina Kasich Clinton Huckabee Paul Christie Bush Trump REPUBLICANS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Rubio Cruz Carson Huckabee Trump Fiorina Bush Christie Kasich Paul DEMOCRATS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Clinton Sanders

10 13. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 44% 9% 85% 38% 36% 52% 50% 41% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 44% 45% 48% 39% 30% 41% 35% 84% 64% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 40% 67% 13% 44% 45% 36% 40% 41% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 31% 37% 42% 49% 49% 41% 45% 22% 20% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 35% 64% 10% 31% 41% 29% 27% 39% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 23% 36% 39% 39% 47% 36% 42% 9% 9% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

11 16. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 44% 15% 68% 47% 41% 46% 49% 41% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 59% 43% 43% 32% 39% 43% 41% 57% 60% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 37% 66% 15% 36% 42% 32% 43% 34% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 27% 34% 38% 48% 46% 38% 42% 21% 22% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 33% 65% 8% 30% 38% 28% 31% 34% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 25% 31% 33% 43% 42% 33% 38% 15% 25% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

12 19. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 32% 53% 19% 27% 33% 31% 38% 29% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED AGE IN YRS Favorable 24% 32% 32% 35% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 28% 43% 15% 28% 30% 26% 36% 24% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED AGE IN YRS Favorable 23% 21% 30% 36% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 28% 49% 11% 25% 31% 25% 31% 27% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED AGE IN YRS Favorable 21% 20% 33% 37% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

13 22. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 29% 56% 5% 29% 36% 23% 28% 29% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED AGE IN YRS Favorable 19% 32% 25% 40% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 19% 27% 16% 17% 23% 14% 21% 18% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED AGE IN YRS Favorable 5% 18% 24% 27% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 23% 32% 10% 26% 29% 17% 27% 20% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED AGE IN YRS Favorable 24% 25% 23% 19% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

14 33. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 36% 7% 73% 26% 30% 41% 37% 35% No DK/NA Yes 38% 29% 40% 37% 24% 32% 28% 65% 60% No DK/NA Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 35% 58% 12% 36% 40% 30% 29% 38% No DK/NA Yes 28% 33% 37% 41% 44% 38% 41% 10% 22% No DK/NA Would you say that - Bernie Sanders is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 59% 39% 78% 64% 62% 57% 68% 55% No DK/NA Yes 70% 58% 60% 48% 60% 54% 57% 69% 67% No DK/NA

15 36. Would you say that - Ben Carson is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 53% 79% 31% 54% 59% 48% 52% 54% No DK/NA Yes 45% 49% 56% 63% 64% 52% 58% 39% 43% No DK/NA Would you say that - Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 49% 74% 32% 46% 54% 44% 54% 47% No DK/NA Yes 42% 43% 51% 59% 59% 50% 55% 31% 38% No DK/NA Would you say that - Ted Cruz is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 43% 74% 18% 42% 51% 36% 42% 44% No DK/NA Yes 35% 42% 43% 52% 56% 41% 49% 26% 28% No DK/NA

16 39. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 60% 26% 91% 62% 53% 67% 65% 57% No DK/NA Yes 68% 59% 62% 52% 47% 58% 52% 87% 77% No DK/NA Would you say that - Donald Trump has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 58% 80% 35% 61% 63% 54% 56% 60% No DK/NA Yes 60% 62% 58% 52% 67% 60% 64% 38% 38% No DK/NA Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 46% 22% 68% 47% 44% 48% 49% 44% No DK/NA Yes 61% 43% 43% 35% 39% 44% 41% 59% 62% No DK/NA

17 42. Would you say that - Ben Carson has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 40% 60% 20% 40% 43% 36% 33% 43% No DK/NA Yes 37% 38% 40% 44% 46% 38% 42% 34% 26% No DK/NA Would you say that - Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 47% 70% 32% 43% 48% 45% 54% 43% No DK/NA Yes 40% 44% 46% 54% 52% 49% 51% 28% 43% No DK/NA Would you say that - Ted Cruz has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 43% 69% 20% 42% 47% 38% 44% 42% No DK/NA Yes 40% 40% 41% 50% 51% 43% 47% 25% 31% No DK/NA

18 45. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 46% 14% 84% 40% 37% 55% 50% 44% No DK/NA Yes 50% 42% 52% 42% 31% 46% 38% 80% 65% No DK/NA Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 36% 66% 11% 33% 43% 30% 30% 39% No DK/NA Yes 25% 33% 40% 43% 46% 38% 42% 9% 14% No DK/NA Would you say that - Bernie Sanders cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 53% 26% 75% 59% 55% 51% 61% 49% No DK/NA Yes 68% 49% 57% 37% 52% 48% 50% 66% 61% No DK/NA

19 48. Would you say that - Ben Carson cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 50% 75% 25% 53% 56% 44% 47% 51% No DK/NA Yes 45% 46% 52% 56% 61% 48% 55% 33% 35% No DK/NA Would you say that - Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 46% 76% 25% 43% 52% 41% 51% 44% No DK/NA Yes 41% 42% 47% 54% 56% 48% 52% 26% 28% No DK/NA Would you say that - Ted Cruz cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 42% 75% 17% 39% 49% 36% 39% 44% No DK/NA Yes 38% 41% 42% 48% 54% 42% 48% 21% 24% No DK/NA

20 51. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 67% 34% 96% 70% 62% 71% 73% 64% No DK/NA Yes 77% 71% 67% 52% 55% 65% 60% 93% 86% No DK/NA Would you say that - Donald Trump has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 34% 60% 9% 32% 42% 26% 28% 37% No DK/NA Yes 27% 33% 36% 37% 47% 32% 40% 6% 17% No DK/NA Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 47% 24% 68% 50% 47% 48% 50% 46% No DK/NA Yes 68% 46% 46% 30% 44% 44% 44% 62% 59% No DK/NA

21 54. Would you say that - Ben Carson has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 28% 42% 14% 30% 32% 24% 21% 31% No DK/NA Yes 31% 23% 26% 34% 34% 25% 30% 23% 21% No DK/NA Would you say that - Marco Rubio has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 43% 67% 22% 46% 48% 39% 48% 41% No DK/NA Yes 40% 43% 40% 49% 52% 44% 48% 29% 27% No DK/NA Would you say that - Ted Cruz has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 44% 70% 21% 44% 51% 38% 44% 45% No DK/NA Yes 47% 44% 41% 47% 55% 44% 50% 30% 24% No DK/NA

22 57. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton shares your values or not? Yes 42% 8% 84% 33% 34% 51% 47% 40% No DK/NA Yes 45% 40% 46% 38% 27% 41% 34% 79% 65% No DK/NA Would you say that - Donald Trump shares your values or not? Yes 35% 65% 8% 32% 42% 28% 27% 39% No DK/NA Yes 25% 34% 39% 40% 46% 35% 41% 13% 15% No DK/NA Would you say that - Bernie Sanders shares your values or not? Yes 44% 13% 73% 47% 42% 46% 50% 41% No DK/NA Yes 59% 43% 45% 30% 39% 44% 42% 56% 59% No DK/NA

23 60. Would you say that - Ben Carson shares your values or not? Yes 46% 75% 17% 50% 53% 40% 41% 49% No DK/NA Yes 44% 39% 49% 53% 57% 44% 51% 32% 32% No DK/NA Would you say that - Marco Rubio shares your values or not? Yes 40% 71% 15% 39% 46% 35% 44% 39% No DK/NA Yes 32% 35% 41% 51% 50% 42% 46% 18% 25% No DK/NA Would you say that - Ted Cruz shares your values or not? Yes 35% 68% 8% 34% 44% 27% 33% 37% No DK/NA Yes 27% 32% 36% 46% 49% 33% 41% 15% 21% No DK/NA

24 63. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton would have a good chance of defeating the Republican nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 63% 34% 87% 69% 62% 64% 69% 60% No DK/NA Yes 68% 66% 66% 52% 56% 56% 56% 95% 73% No DK/NA Would you say that - Donald Trump would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 46% 73% 20% 47% 50% 43% 36% 51% No DK/NA Yes 45% 45% 46% 47% 55% 50% 53% 21% 18% No DK/NA Would you say that - Bernie Sanders would have a good chance of defeating the Republican nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 34% 17% 49% 39% 34% 34% 31% 35% No DK/NA Yes 54% 33% 29% 23% 30% 30% 30% 48% 53% No DK/NA

25 66. Would you say that - Ben Carson would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 31% 55% 11% 30% 35% 28% 31% 32% No DK/NA Yes 28% 27% 35% 35% 39% 31% 35% 16% 20% No DK/NA Would you say that - Marco Rubio would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 39% 63% 23% 37% 43% 35% 44% 37% No DK/NA Yes 30% 40% 39% 48% 48% 42% 45% 19% 20% No DK/NA Would you say that - Ted Cruz would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 31% 59% 10% 28% 34% 29% 27% 33% No DK/NA Yes 21% 33% 31% 41% 38% 34% 36% 11% 19% No DK/NA

26 69. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Thinking about the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Shares values 15% 16% 13% 15% 15% 15% Cares needs/problems Strong leadership Honest/trustworthy Right experience Best chance/winning DK/NA (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Thinking about the Republican nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Shares values 22% 28% 28% 28% 22% 15% 27% 15% Cares needs/problems Strong leadership Honest/trustworthy Right experience Best chance/winning DK/NA (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Democratic nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, gun policy or taxes? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Economy and jobs 43% 40% 44% 45% 48% 40% Terrorism Immigration Federal deficit Health care Foreign policy Climate change Race relations Abortion Gun policy Taxes DK/NA

27 72. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, gun policy or taxes? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Economy and jobs 26% 21% 24% 23% 26% 28% 30% 20% Terrorism Immigration Federal deficit Health care Foreign policy Climate change Race relations Abortion Gun policy Taxes DK/NA