Clinton Leads Sanders by 29%

Transcription

1 P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 8, Contact: Steve Mitchell Clinton Leads Sanders by 29% (Clinton 57% - Sanders 28%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has increased her lead over Senator Bernie Sanders among likely Democratic Party Presidential Primary voters. Clinton leads Sanders 57%-28%, a 29 point lead up from the 17 point lead she had on January 25th. Clinton is also more popular, with 74% of the voters saying they have a favorable impression of her compared to Sanders at 62%. The IVR (Interactive Voice Response) automated survey of 321 likely March Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications February 4,. The poll has a Margin of Error of + or 5.47% at the 95% level of confidence. Hillary Clinton has had a comfortable lead over Bernie Sanders, but it appeared that lead was closing when Martin O Malley was in the race. Now that he has dropped out, Clinton has taken a substantial lead over Sanders in Michigan. Although she was in a neck-in-neck race with Sanders in the Iowa Caucus and she is trailing by double digits in New Hampshire, she still seems to be on track to win the nomination. This poll, as well as polling results in states after New Hampshire, shows and has she is doing well. However, Sanders is proving more difficult to beat than most would have thought, Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said. Here are the results by key demographics: By age: Sanders and Clinton are in a dead tie at 43% with year olds. Clinton leads 72%-14% with voters Clinton leads 49%-37% with voters Clinton (62%) leads Sanders (18%) with voters 70 and older.

2 Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 2 of 2 By gender: Clinton leads with men 47%-36%. Clinton leads with women 63%-23%. By race: Clinton is ahead with white voters 52%-29%. Clinton has a huge 70%-23% lead with African-Americans. By area: In Detroit, Clinton leads 56%-30%. In Wayne County outside Detroit, Clinton leads 64%-15%. In Oakland, Clinton leads 66%-20%. In Macomb, Sanders leads 55%-36%. In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, Clinton leads 71%-21%. In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Clinton leads 50%-38%. In West Michigan, Sanders leads 44%-27%. In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Clinton leads 44%-44%. Despite difficulties in New Hampshire, Clinton looks very strong in Michigan at this time. She is especially strong with women where she leads by 40% compared t just 11% with men. She is tied with voters under 50, but has a strong lead with older voters. She is also very strong with African-Americans, Mitchell concluded. (The survey must be referred to as a Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll) -30-

3 Survey of the State of Michigan Likely March Democratic Primary Election Voters Conducted January 25, and February 4, (N= 573) (N=321) Hi, we are conducting a survey of Michigan voters for TV and radio stations on the Presidential Race and other issues. 1. If you are a registered voter at the household we are calling please press 1. If you re not, press % No 0 2. Thinking about the November General Election for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely voting 99% Probably Voting 0 Not Sure Yet 1 Definitely Not 0 3. Thinking about the upcoming March 8 Presidential Primary race for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely voting 91% Probably Voting 7 Not Sure Yet 3 Definitely Not 0 4. In a Presidential Primary you can only vote for candidates in one political party. Next month, will you be voting in the Democratic Party Presidential Primary, the Republican Party Presidential Primary, or are you not sure? Democratic Primary 100% Republican Primary 0 Not Sure 0

4 Before presidential and other questions, five quick questions for statistical purposes: 5. What is your age? If you are: press 21% press press or older press If you are a male press 1 or a female press 2. Male 40% Female If you are white/caucasian press 1, African-American press 2, Hispanic press 3, Asian or something else press 4. White 71% African-American 24 Other 5 8. If you are a: Democrat or lean Democrat press 93% Republican or lean Republican press 1 Another party press 1 Or, Independent press 5 9. What area do you live in? If you live in the: City of Detroit press 11% Wayne County outside of Detroit 14 Oakland County 13 `Macomb County 4 Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 15 Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Jackson, Mid-Michigan 19 West Michigan 17 Northern Michigan/U.P Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement: I m mad as hell and I won t take it anymore! If you Dem Dem. 2-4 Strongly agree press 29% 23% Agree 19 48% 16 39% Disagree 12 29% 20 40% Strongly disagree Not sure press 23 21

5 Now I m going to read you a few names. For each, please tell me if you have heard of that name. If you have heard of that name let me know if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you don t know the name, or don t know enough about them to say favorable or unfavorable, you can give me that answer too. 11. Hillary Clinton. If you are not aware of Hillary Clinton Press 1. Aware with a favorable impression Press 2. Aware with an unfavorable impression Press 3. If you are aware, but don t know enough to say favorable or unfavorable Press 4, and if you are not sure Press 5. Dem 1-25 Dem. 2-4 Not Aware 4% 8% Favorable Unfavorable Aware/No Impression 2 3 Undecided Bernie Sanders. If you are not aware of Bernie Sanders Press 1. Aware with a favorable impression Press 2. Aware with an unfavorable impression Press 3. If you are aware, but don t know enough to say favorable or unfavorable Press 4, and if you are not sure Press 5. Dem.2-4 Not Aware 8% Favorable 62 Unfavorable 17 Aware/No Impression 9 Undecided Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? If you strongly approve press 1, somewhat approve press 2, somewhat disapprove press 3, strongly disapprove press 4, or if you are not sure press 5. Dem Dem. 2-4 Strongly Approve 51% 71% Approve 25 76% 24 95% Disapprove 8 23% 3 4% Strongly Disapprove 15 1 Not Sure If the Democratic Primary Election was being held today and the candidates were in alphabetical order Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders, who would you be voting for? If you would NOT be voting in the Democratic Primary press 1, if you would be voting for Hillary Clinton press 2, Bernie Sanders press 3, if you re not sure press 4. Dem.1-25 Dem. 2-4 NOT Voting N/A 5% Clinton O Malley 12 N/A Sanders Not sure N/A 11

6 N=321 Total Clinton vs Sanders NOT Voting Clinton Sanders Not Sure Total % 5.1% 56.6% 27.6% 10.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Age % 8.2% 42.9% 42.9% 6.1% 20.9% 28.6% 13.6% 28.0% 10.3% % 1.7% 72.4% 13.8% 12.1% 22.1% 7.1% 27.3% 10.7% 24.1% % 4.7% 48.8% 37.2% 9.3% 27.4% 28.6% 27.3% 42.7% 27.6% 70 or Older % 6.3% 62.0% 17.7% 13.9% 29.6% 35.7% 31.8% 18.7% 37.9% Total % 5.1% 56.6% 27.6% 10.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Gender Male % 5.8% 47.1% 35.6% 11.5% 39.9% 42.9% 31.8% 49.3% 41.4% Female % 4.8% 62.5% 22.6% 10.1% 60.1% 57.1% 68.2% 50.7% 58.6%

7 N=321 Total Clinton vs Sanders NOT Voting Clinton Sanders Not Sure Total % 5.1% 56.6% 27.6% 10.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Race White/Caucasian % 5.6% 52.0% 29.3% 13.1% 71.0% 78.6% 66.9% 77.3% 89.7% African-American % 3.3% 70.0% 23.3% 3.3% 24.3% 14.3% 27.3% 18.7% 6.9% Other % 7.1% 64.3% 21.4% 7.1% 4.7% 7.1% 5.8% 4.0% 3.4% Total % 5.1% 56.6% 27.6% 10.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Political Party Democrat or Lean Democrat % 4.7% 59.1% 25.6% 10.6% 92.8% 85.7% 97.4% 86.7% 93.1% Republican or Lean Republican 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Another Party % 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% Independent % 0.0% 30.8% 53.8% 15.4% 5.0% 0.0% 2.6% 9.3% 6.9%

8 N=321 Total Clinton vs Sanders NOT Voting Clinton Sanders Not Sure Total % 5.1% 56.6% 27.6% 10.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Area City of Detroit % 14.8% 55.6% 29.6% 0.0% 10.5% 28.6% 9.7% 10.7% 0.0% Wayne County Outside of Detroit 100.0% 10.3% 64.1% 15.4% 10.3% 14.0% 28.6% 16.2% 8.0% 13.8% Oakland County % 2.9% 65.7% 20.0% 11.4% 12.7% 7.1% 14.9% 9.3% 13.8% Macomb County % 0.0% 54.5% 36.4% 9.1% 3.5% 0.0% 3.9% 5.3% 3.4% Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 100.0% 2.3% 70.5% 20.5% 6.8% 14.6% 7.1% 20.1% 12.0% 10.3% Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Jackson, Mid % 2.0% 50.0% 38.0% 10.0% Michigan 19.4% 7.1% 16.2% 25.3% 17.2% West Michigan % 4.9% 43.9% 26.8% 24.4% 16.5% 14.3% 11.7% 14.7% 34.5% Northern Michigan/U.P % 4.0% 44.0% 44.0% 8.0% 8.9% 7.1% 7.1% 14.7% 6.9%

9 N=321 Total Clinton vs Sanders NOT Voting Clinton Sanders Not Sure Total % 5.1% 56.6% 27.6% 10.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Clinton vs Sanders NOT Voting % 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Clinton % 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sanders % 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 27.6% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Not Sure % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

10 N=321 Total Clinton Name ID Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 7.9% 74.4% 13.4% 2.9% 1.4% Age % 6.0% 60.0% 30.0% 2.0% 2.0% 20.9% 13.6% 14.6% 40.5% 12.5% 25.0% % 3.3% 96.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 9.1% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% % 0.0% 76.7% 17.4% 4.7% 1.2% 27.4% 0.0% 32.0% 40.5% 50.0% 25.0% 70 or Older % 21.3% 63.8% 8.8% 3.8% 2.5% 29.6% 77.3% 24.8% 18.9% 37.5% 50.0% Total % 7.9% 74.4% 13.4% 2.9% 1.4% Gender Male % 9.3% 71.0% 15.9% 2.8% 0.9% 39.9% 45.5% 36.9% 45.9% 37.5% 25.0% Female % 7.1% 76.5% 11.8% 2.9% 1.8% 60.1% 54.5% 63.1% 54.1% 62.5% 75.0%

11 N=321 Total Clinton Name ID Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 7.9% 74.4% 13.4% 2.9% 1.4% Race White/Caucasian % 8.0% 71.6% 14.9% 4.0% 1.5% 71.0% 72.7% 69.9% 81.1% 100.0% 75.0% African-American % 9.7% 80.6% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 24.3% 27.3% 24.3% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% Other % 0.0% 85.7% 7.1% 0.0% 7.1% 4.7% 0.0% 5.8% 2.7% 0.0% 25.0% Total % 7.9% 74.4% 13.4% 2.9% 1.4% Political Party Democrat or Lean Democrat % 8.1% 76.4% 10.8% 3.1% 1.5% 92.8% 95.5% 96.1% 75.7% 100.0% 100.0% Republican or Lean Republican 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 4.5% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% Another Party % 0.0% 33.3% 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% Independent % 0.0% 53.8% 46.2% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 3.4% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0%

12 N=321 Total Clinton Name ID Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 7.9% 74.4% 13.4% 2.9% 1.4% Area City of Detroit % 14.8% 70.4% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 18.2% 9.2% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% Wayne County Outside of Detroit 100.0% 10.3% 76.9% 10.3% 2.6% 0.0% 14.0% 18.2% 14.6% 10.8% 12.5% 0.0% Oakland County % 5.4% 78.4% 13.5% 2.7% 0.0% 12.7% 9.1% 14.1% 13.5% 12.5% 0.0% Macomb County % 18.2% 81.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 9.1% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 100.0% 9.1% 77.3% 11.4% 0.0% 2.3% 14.6% 18.2% 16.5% 13.5% 0.0% 25.0% Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Jackson, Mid % 7.8% 64.7% 21.6% 2.0% 3.9% Michigan 19.4% 18.2% 16.0% 29.7% 12.5% 50.0% West Michigan % 0.0% 83.7% 11.6% 4.7% 0.0% 16.5% 0.0% 17.5% 13.5% 25.0% 0.0% Northern Michigan/U.P % 8.0% 64.0% 12.0% 12.0% 4.0% 8.9% 9.1% 7.8% 8.1% 37.5% 25.0%

13 N=321 Total Clinton Name ID Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 7.9% 74.4% 13.4% 2.9% 1.4% Clinton vs Sanders NOT Voting % 28.6% 50.0% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 19.0% 3.5% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Clinton % 7.1% 90.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.3% 56.6% 52.4% 68.8% 2.7% 12.5% 50.0% Sanders % 5.3% 45.3% 42.7% 5.3% 1.3% 27.6% 19.0% 16.8% 86.5% 50.0% 25.0% Not Sure % 6.9% 75.9% 3.4% 10.3% 3.4% 10.7% 9.5% 10.9% 2.7% 37.5% 25.0%

14 N=321 Total Sanders Name ID Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 7.6% 62.3% 17.4% 9.4% 3.3% Age % 10.2% 77.6% 8.2% 2.0% 2.0% 20.9% 23.8% 22.1% 8.3% 3.8% 11.1% % 11.5% 54.1% 19.7% 11.5% 3.3% 22.1% 33.3% 19.2% 25.0% 26.9% 22.2% % 2.3% 70.9% 17.4% 9.3% 0.0% 27.4% 9.5% 35.5% 31.3% 30.8% 0.0% 70 or Older % 8.8% 50.0% 21.3% 12.5% 7.5% 29.6% 33.3% 23.3% 35.4% 38.5% 66.7% Total % 7.6% 62.3% 17.4% 9.4% 3.3% Gender Male % 8.5% 68.9% 12.3% 8.5% 1.9% 39.9% 42.9% 42.4% 27.1% 34.6% 22.2% Female % 7.1% 58.2% 20.6% 10.0% 4.1% 60.1% 57.1% 57.6% 72.9% 65.4% 77.8%

15 N=321 Total Sanders Name ID Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 7.6% 62.3% 17.4% 9.4% 3.3% Race White/Caucasian % 6.5% 68.5% 13.5% 8.5% 3.0% 71.0% 61.9% 79.7% 56.3% 65.4% 66.7% African-American % 12.9% 41.9% 29.0% 12.9% 3.2% 24.3% 38.1% 15.1% 37.5% 30.8% 22.2% Other % 0.0% 64.3% 21.4% 7.1% 7.1% 4.7% 0.0% 5.2% 6.3% 3.8% 11.1% Total % 7.6% 62.3% 17.4% 9.4% 3.3% Political Party Democrat or Lean Democrat % 7.8% 61.6% 17.1% 10.1% 3.5% 92.8% 95.2% 92.4% 91.7% 100.0% 100.0% Republican or Lean Republican 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 4.8% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% Another Party % 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Independent % 0.0% 76.9% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.8% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0%

16 N=321 Total Sanders Name ID Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 7.6% 62.3% 17.4% 9.4% 3.3% Area City of Detroit % 14.8% 40.7% 22.2% 14.8% 7.4% 10.5% 19.0% 6.4% 12.5% 15.4% 22.2% Wayne County Outside of Detroit 100.0% 7.7% 61.5% 17.9% 12.8% 0.0% 14.0% 14.3% 14.0% 14.6% 19.2% 0.0% Oakland County % 5.4% 67.6% 10.8% 13.5% 2.7% 12.7% 9.5% 14.5% 8.3% 19.2% 11.1% Macomb County % 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 100.0% 9.1% 50.0% 29.5% 11.4% 0.0% 14.6% 19.0% 12.8% 27.1% 19.2% 0.0% Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Jackson, Mid % 3.9% 70.6% 13.7% 5.9% 5.9% Michigan 19.4% 9.5% 20.9% 14.6% 11.5% 33.3% West Michigan % 4.8% 71.4% 16.7% 7.1% 0.0% 16.5% 9.5% 17.4% 14.6% 11.5% 0.0% Northern Michigan/U.P % 16.0% 52.0% 16.0% 4.0% 12.0% 8.9% 19.0% 7.6% 8.3% 3.8% 33.3%

17 N=321 Total Sanders Name ID Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware/ No Impression Undecided Total % 7.6% 62.3% 17.4% 9.4% 3.3% Clinton vs Sanders NOT Voting % 21.4% 28.6% 28.6% 7.1% 14.3% 5.1% 15.8% 2.3% 8.3% 4.0% 22.2% Clinton % 7.1% 48.7% 26.6% 13.6% 3.9% 56.6% 57.9% 43.9% 85.4% 84.0% 66.7% Sanders % 6.7% 93.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.6% 26.3% 40.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Not Sure % 0.0% 75.9% 10.3% 10.3% 3.4% 10.7% 0.0% 12.9% 6.3% 12.0% 11.1%