AMERICANS VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY AND THE STATE OF THE COUNTRY March 28- April 2, 2008

Transcription

1 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For Release: Thursday, April 3 rd, :30 PM (EDT) AMERICANS VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY AND THE STATE OF THE COUNTRY March 28- April 2, 2008 Americans views about the economy and the way things are going in this country in general -- are now the most negative ever recorded in the history of the CBS News/New York Times Poll. Just 14% say things in this country are on the right track; the lowest number in the twenty-five years since CBS News began asking the question. DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY Now 1/ /2007 Right direction 14% 19% 21% Wrong track When asked to compare things in the U.S. now to five years ago, 78% say things are worse today (the highest since CBS news began asking the question in 1986) and only 4% say things are better. Nearly four in 10 think things will be better in the next five years, while a third expect things to get worse. THE UNITED STATES TODAY VS. FIVE YEARS AGO FIVE YEARS FROM NOW Better 4% 39% Worse About the same THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY Just one in five believe the economy is in good shape - the lowest number recorded since October In addition, seven in 10 say the economy is getting worse. CONDITION OF THE ECONOMY Now 2 weeks ago 1/2008 3/ /1992 Good 21% 25% 38% 55% 19% Bad There are many causes for these concerns. In this poll, Americans express their worries about the impact of a bad economy on their ability to meet future college tuitions, pay their mortgages and even (for some) paying their regular bills. And while the Chairman of the Federal Reserve recently indicated that the U.S. economy may enter a recession during the first half of this

2 year, two-thirds of Americans think the country is already in one. Two-thirds thought so last month, and 53% did in January. IS THE U.S. IN A RECESSION? Now 2 weeks ago 1/2008 Yes 66% 66% 53% No So it is not surprising that the economy and jobs continues to be the top concern for Americans. The war in Iraq is second, followed by two other issues where people worry about cost: gas prices and health care. MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Economy and jobs 37% War in Iraq 15 Gas prices 7 Health care 6 As for which economic problem facing the country is most important, gas prices top the list. 21% volunteer gas and oil prices, 14% cite housing and the home mortgage crisis and 11% say jobs (Another 4% say jobs moving overseas and outsourcing). Personal finances and war and defense spending are each volunteered by 5%. MOST IMPORTANT ECONOMIC PROBLEM Gas/oil prices 21% Housing/home mortgages 14 Jobs/unemployment 11 Personal finances 5 War/defense spending 5 When it comes to jobs, nearly half of Americans say the country s best years are in the past. 43% say the best times for jobs are yet to come. THE HOME MORTGAGE CRISIS Most Americans are aware of the current home mortgage crisis and more than half think the federal government should provide financial help to homeowners who are having trouble repaying their mortgages. Significantly fewer, however, support this idea if it would cost taxpayers $30 billion. The public has less sympathy for banks and mortgage companies: A majority (62%) does not think the government should provide help to those institutions. IN THE MORTGAGE CRISIS, SHOULD GOV T PROVIDE FINANCIAL HELP TO? HOMEOWNERS BANKS & MORTGAGE COMPANIES Yes 53% 28% No 41 62

3 Americans mostly blame regulators of the industry for the home mortgage crisis, followed by lenders. Only 14% put the blame on the borrowers themselves. WHO DO YOU BLAME MOST FOR MORTGAGE CRISIS? Regulators 40% Lenders 28 Borrowers 14 It s not just other people that the public thinks about when it comes to the mortgage crisis. Many worry about themselves. Nearly three in four of those holding a mortgage have some concern about being able to pay their housing costs. A third are very concerned. CONCERNED ABOUT HOUSE COSTS? (Those holding a mortgage) Very 31% Somewhat 41 Not at all 28 AMERICANS AND THEIR PERSONAL FINANCES Despite many worries about their mortgage responsibility and their negative assessment of the national economy, Americans are relatively satisfied with their own financial situation. Seven in 10 Americans rate their financial situation as at least somewhat good though this number is down six points from February. But only 9% of Americans say their financial situation is very good down nine points in the last few weeks. FINANCIAL CONDITION OF YOUR HOUSEHOLD Now 2/2008 4/2007 Good 72% 78% 83% Bad Nearly half of all Americans say they are staying even financially, while 23% say they are getting ahead, and another 28% say they are falling behind. Most Americans say that wages are not keeping up with the cost of living in their communities. This is especially true of Americans who live in the Midwest. ARE WAGES KEEPING UP WITH THE COST OF LIVING IN YOUR COMMUNITY? Total Northeast Midwest South West Yes 32% 38% 24% 31% 34% No And 79% - say they have had to make cutbacks in their day-to-day spending in recent years, although only 28% admit those cutbacks have

4 been severe. One in five Americans have not had to make any cutbacks in their spending. A third of Americans making over $75,000 a year have not had to make cutbacks, compared to only 15% of those making less. HAVE YOU MADE CUTBACKS IN DAY-TO-DAY SPENDING? All Under $75K Over $75K Severe cutbacks 28% 37% 10% Not severe cutbacks No cutbacks Paying everyday bills is the biggest personal economic concern for most Americans, ahead of both saving for retirement and paying for health care. This changes, however, depending on one s household income. Americans making less than $75,000 a year are more concerned about their current situation and paying their bills, but those making more are more concerned about the future and saving for retirement. BIGGEST ECONOMIC CONCERN All Under $75K Over $75K Everyday bills 29% 36% 15% Retirement Health care Although it may come in third when ranked against paying for everyday bills and saving for retirement, 86% still say they are at least somewhat concerned about the health care costs their family might face in the coming years including 59% who say they are very concerned. Large majorities are also concerned about saving for retirement and paying their current health care and housing costs. Just over half are also at least somewhat concerned that someone in their household will lose their job in the next twelve months. HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT? Very Somewhat Not at all Future health care costs 59% Saving for retirement 43% Current health care costs 42% Housing costs 31% Losing a job in the household 28% However, it is paying for college tuition that seems to preoccupy most Americans with children under the age of 18. Nine out of 10 parents are concerned about paying for college; including seven in 10 who say they are very concerned. More worry about that than worry about any other specific economic concern.

5 HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT? (Among parents with children under 18) Very Somewhat Not at all Paying for college tuition 70% 24 6 Future health care costs 62% Saving for retirement 56% 38 7 Current health care costs 47% Losing a job in the household 35% Housing costs 33% Looking beyond those future college expenditures, parents are cautiously optimistic about their children s financial future. Nearly half of all Americans with children think their children s standard of living will be better than theirs the same who thought so as a year ago. But 28% think their standard of living will decline, and 24% think it will be about the same as their own. YOUR CHILDREN'S STANDARD OF LIVING WILL BE (Among all parents) Now 7/2006 3/2005(NYT) Better than yours 46% 48% 56% Worse than yours Same as yours And regardless of their personal financial struggles, 62% of Americans think their own standard of living is better than that of their parents when they were the same age a number which hasn t changed much over the past two years. THE STOCK MARKET STANDARD OF LIVING NOW VS. PARENTS Now 7/2006 3/2005(NYT) Better now 62% 63% 66% Worse now Same The recent fluctuations in the stock market haven t made Americans any more comfortable with the market. Only one in five Americans think that investment in the stock market is a generally safe investment. 73% think it is risky, including 65% of investors. IS INVESTING IN THE STOCK MARKET GENERALLY All Investors Safe 22% 33% Risky THE WAR IN IRAQ AND THE ECONOMY The war in Iraq ranks second behind the economy as the country s most pressing problem and most Americans think the cost of the war has

6 contributed to the country s economic woes, including two-thirds who think it has contributed a lot. HOW MUCH HAS THE IRAQ WAR CONTRIBUTED TO U.S. ECONOMIC PROBLEMS? A lot 67% Some 22 Not much/not at all 10 Americans who think going to war with Iraq was the right thing to do are less likely to think the war is responsible for the country s economic problems. THE PRESIDENT The public s downbeat views of the economy are taking a toll on evaluations of George W. Bush s handling of the issue. Only 21% of Americans now approve of his handling of the economy his lowest rating to date. 71% disapprove of how he s handling it, an all-time high. In 1992, George H.W. Bush, the president s father, suffered even lower economic approval ratings. BUSH S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY Now 2 weeks ago 2/2008 1/2008 Approve 21% 25% 27% 27% Disapprove Also, the President continues to experience low overall job ratings. Just 28% approve of the job he is doing a President similar to his rating two weeks ago. BUSH S OVERALL JOB RATING Now 2 weeks ago 2/2008 1/2008 Approve 28% 29% 30% 27% Disapprove This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1368 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone March 28- April 2, The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.

7 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Americans Views of the Economy March 28 April 2, 2008 q1 I'd like you to compare the way things are going in the United States to the way they were going five years ago. Generally, would you say things are going better today, worse today, or about the same today as they were going five years ago? Total Rep Dem Ind Sep06a % % % % % Better Worse Same DK/NA q2 And what is your best guess about the United States five years from now? Generally, if things go pretty much as you now expect, do you think things will be better, worse, or about the same as they are today? Better Worse Same DK/NA q3 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Mar08a Approve Disapprove DK/NA q4 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Jan08c Right direction Wrong track DK/NA q5 What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today? Feb08a Economy / jobs War in Iraq Gas/Heating Oil Crisis Health Care Immigration Environment Foreign Policy The President/G.W. Bush Budget Deficit /Nat l Debt Housing Terrorism (general) Other DK/NA

8 q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy? Total Rep Dem Ind Mar08c % % % % % Approve Disapprove DK/NA q7 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Is it very Mar08a Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA q8 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse Same DK/NA q9 Right now, do you think the United States is in an economic recession, or not? Yes No DK/NA q10 What do you think is the most important ECONOMIC problem facing the country today? Gas/fuel costs / heating oil Home/housing mortgage crisis Jobs and Unemployment Personal finances Defense spending /spending Jobs going overseas Budget / National Debt Health care / health ins Value of the dollar Taxes / IRS / cut taxes Foreign Trade / NAFTA Too much government/govt Income gap/ Inflation Education / school loans Poverty / Homelessness Welfare / AFDC / Interest rates Immigration Food prices Other Don't know/no answer

9 q11 When it comes to the availability of good jobs for American workers, some say that America's best years are behind us. Others say the best times are yet to come. What do you think? NYT Total Rep Dem Ind Dec96b % % % % % Best behind Yet to come Don't know/no answer q12 What is your biggest personal economic concern right now? paying everyday bills, OR paying for healthcare OR saving for retirement OR something else? IF ELSE, ASK: What is that? Everyday bills Retirement Healthcare College tuition (vol.) Paying for gas (vol.) Other, specify (vol.) All of the above (vol.) No concern/nothing DK/NA q13 How would you rate the financial situation in your household these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Feb08a Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad Don't know/no answer q14 In the past couple of years would you say you have been getting ahead financially, just staying even financially, or falling behind financially? Apr07a Getting ahead Staying even Falling behind Don't know/no answer q15 In general, how concerned are you about not having enough money to pay for your current health care costs--very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Feb07b Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not at all concerned Don't know/no answer

10 q16 How concerned are you about the health care costs you and your family might face in the coming years--very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Total Rep Dem Ind Feb07b % % % % % Very Somewhat Not at all Don't know/no answer q17 How concerned are you about being able to pay your housing costs --very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not at all concerned DK/NA q18 How concerned are you about being able to afford your children's college tuition -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? ** PARENTS WITH CHILDREN UNDER AGE 18 ** Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not at all concerned q19 How concerned are you about not having enough money for retirement --very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Feb07b Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not at all concerned DK/NA q20 How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work or looking for a job -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? Feb08a Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not at all concerned DK/NA

11 q21 In recent years, have you made cutbacks in your day-to-day spending? IF YES, ASK: Would you call those cutbacks severe, or not so severe? Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Yes, severe Yes, but not severe No DK/NA q22 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE q23 If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services? Nov03a % Smaller Bigger Depends(vol.) DK/NA q24-67 RELEASED SEPARATELY q68 Do you think the future of the next generation of Americans will be better, worse, or about the same as life today? Jun07c Will be better Worse About the same as life today Don't know/no answer q69 Compared to your parents when they were the age you are now, do you think your own standard of living now is much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse than theirs was? Jul06a Much better Somewhat better About the same Somewhat worse Much worse DK/NA

12 q70 When your children are the age you are now, do you think their standard of living will be much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse than yours is now? ** AMONG PARENTS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Jul06a % % % % % Much better Somewhat better About the same Somewhat worse Much worse DK/NA q71 From what you know, how much do you think the cost of the war in Iraq has contributed to the U.S. economic problems -- a lot, some, not much or not at all? A lot Some Not much Not at all Don't know/no answer q72 Currently the federal government taxes the estates -- that is, the property and money -- people leave when they die. In a few years, that tax will only apply to estates worth more than $3.5 million, and by 2010 there would be no tax on any estate, no matter what it is worth. Which comes closer to your view? There should be no tax on any estate, OR The estate tax should be eliminated for most people, but kept in place for the very largest estates. Nov02d No tax on any estate Tax only on large estates Neither/tax all estates (vol.) Don't know/no answer q73 Some members of Congress have proposed increasing federal income taxes for households making more than $250,000 a year. Under this plan, Congress would use the money raised by these new taxes to pay for new government programs and for tax cuts for households making less money. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea? Good idea Bad idea DK/NA q74 On balance, do you think trade with other countries -- both buying and selling products -- is good for the U.S. economy, or is it bad for the U.S. economy, or does it have no effect? Feb07b Good Bad No effect DK/NA

13 q75 Which of the following statements comes closer to your opinion? Trade restrictions are necessary to protect domestic industries, Or Free trade must be allowed, even if domestic industries are hurt by foreign competition? Total Rep Dem Ind Jan06b % % % % % Restriction necessary Free trade must be allowed Don't know/no answer q76 Do you think of investment in the stock market as generally a safe investment or generally a risky investment? Dec06a Safe Risky DK/NA q77 & q78 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE q79 How much have you heard or read about the home mortgage crisis -- that is, problems concerning mortgages repayments and the banking and home-loan industry? Have you heard a lot, some, not much or nothing at all? A lot Some Not much Nothing at all DK/NA q80 Do you think the federal government should provide financial help to homeowners who are having trouble repaying their mortgages because their rates went up or shouldn't the federal government do this? Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Should Should not Don't know/no answer q81 What if assisting these homeowners could cost the government and taxpayers at least $30 billion? Then, do you think the federal government should help homeowners who took out mortgage loans that they are now having trouble paying or shouldn't the federal government do this? Should Should not in q Should not/dk in q Don't know/no answer

14 q82 What if assisting these homeowners would prevent them from losing their homes, then, do you think the federal government should help homeowners who took out mortgage loans that they are now having trouble paying or shouldn't the federal government do this? Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Should Should /DK in q Should not Don't know/no answer q83 Do you think the federal government should provide financial help to banks and mortgage companies that made loans that people can no longer afford to pay back or shouldn't the federal government do this? Should Should not Don't know/no answer q84 Some people say having the federal government help out banks and mortgage companies could limit any possible recession. Other people say having the federal government help out banks and mortgage companies would encourage the companies to rely too much on government assistance. What do you think? Do you think the federal government should help out banks and mortgage companies or shouldn't the federal government do this? Help banks - Limit recession Don't help banks - Rely to Don't know/no answer q85 Who do you think is mostly to blame for the home mortgage crisis: 1. The borrowers who should not have taken out loans they might have trouble paying if interest rates went up, OR 2. The mortgage lenders who approved mortgages to people who might not be able to afford higher interest rates, OR 3. The regulators who were supposed to supervise the mortgage lending business and protect consumers? Borrowers Lenders Regulators Other (vol) All three (vol) Comb (vol) DK/NA q86 Are you currently employed, or are you temporarily out of work, or are you not in the market for work at all? Currently employed Temporarily out of work Not in the market for work Retired (vol) DK/NA

15 q87 In the past couple of years would you say you have felt MORE secure and confident that you can continue in your job as long as you want, or LESS secure and confident, or has there been NO change? ** AMONG THOSE CURRENTLY EMPLOYED ** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % More Less No change DK/NA q88 Do you think what you are currently paying for housing is more than you can afford, about as much as you can afford, or could you afford more if you wanted? Apr91a More than can afford As much as can afford Could afford more Don't know/no answer q89 In your community, are wages generally keeping up with the cost of living, or not? Yes No Don't know/no answer q90 Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out? Mar08a Right thing Stayed out Don't know/no answer UNWEIGHTED Total Respondents 1368 WEIGHTED Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents