NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll January 2016 New Hampshire Questionnaire. Screener <Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
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1 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Questionnaire Screener <Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older? Do you consider your permanent home address to be in New Hampshire? HH SELECTION LANDLINE FRAME ONLY GENDER GUESS : Registered Voters: n=1888, MOE +/- 2.3%; Residents: n=2059, MOE +/- 2.2%; October 2015: Registered Voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Registered Voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Registered Voters: n=910, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? REGISTERED October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Approve Disapprove Unsure October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Approve Disapprove Unsure : Registered Independents n=838, MOE +/- 3.4%; October 2015: Registered Independents n=451, MOE +/- 4.6%; September 2015: Registered Independents n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; July 2015: Registered Independents n=395, MOE +/- 4.9% Now, thinking about the 2016 presidential primary in New Hampshire are you more likely to vote in the New Hampshire: REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Republican primary Democratic primary Wait to vote in the general election in November : Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=569, MOE +/-4.1; Potential Republican Electorate: n=887, MOE +/ -3.3%; October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/ -4.6%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=401, MOE +/- 4.9 If the 2016 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate): Donald Trump 30 Marco Rubio 14 Chris Christie 12 Ted Cruz 10 John Kasich 9 Jeb Bush 9 Rand Paul 5 Ben Carson 4 Carly Fiorina 3 Mike Huckabee <1 Other <1 Undecided 5 POTENTIAL ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Donald Trump Marco Rubio Chris Christie Ted Cruz John Kasich Jeb Bush Rand Paul Ben Carson Carly Fiorina Mike Huckabee < Other <1 < Undecided NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire ; Page 1
2 : Likely Republican Primary Voters with a Candidate Preference: n=514, MOE +/-4.3; Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=796, MOE +/- 3.5%; October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=412, MOE +/- 4.8%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3% Who is your second choice for the 2016 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate): WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE Marco Rubio 17 Chris Christie 14 Ted Cruz 13 Jeb Bush 11 John Kasich 9 Donald Trump 8 Carly Fiorina 8 Ben Carson 7 Rand Paul 5 Mike Huckabee 1 Other 1 Undecided 6 POTENTIAL ELECTORATE WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE October 2015 September 2015 Marco Rubio Chris Christie Ted Cruz Jeb Bush Donald Trump John Kasich Carly Fiorina Ben Carson Rand Paul Mike Huckabee Other Undecided : Likely Republican Primary Voters with a Candidate Preference: n=514, MOE +/-4.3; Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=796, MOE +/- 3.5% Would you say you strongly support <candidate> somewhat support <candidate>, or do you think you might vote differently on primary day? WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE Strongly support 55 Somewhat support 28 Might vote differently 16 Unsure 1 POTENTIAL ELECTORATE WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE Strongly support 54 Somewhat support 29 Might vote differently 16 Unsure 1 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire ; Page 2
3 : Likely Democratic Primary Voters: n=425, MOE +/- 4.8%; Potential Democratic Electorate: n=690, MOE +/- 3.7%; October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4% If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate): Bernie Sanders 50 Hillary Clinton 46 Martin O'Malley 1 Other <1 Undecided 3 POTENTIAL ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Other Undecided : Likely Democratic Primary Voters with a Candidate Preference: n=396, MOE +/- 4.9%; Potential Democratic Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=636, MOE +/- 3.9% Would you say you strongly support <candidate> somewhat support <candidate>, or do you think you might vote differently on primary day? WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE Strongly support 76 Somewhat support 17 Might vote differently 6 Unsure <1 POTENTIAL ELECTORATE WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE Strongly support 73 Somewhat support 20 Might vote differently 7 Unsure <1 : Registered Voters Split Sample: n=957, MOE +/- 3.2%; October 2015: Registered Voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; September 2015: Registered Voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2% REGISTERED October 2015 September 2015 Hillary Clinton, the Democrat Donald Trump, the Republican Undecided : Registered Voters Split Sample: n=957, MOE +/- 3.2% REGISTERED Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 44 Ted Cruz, the Republican 48 : Registered Voters Split Sample: n=957, MOE +/- 3.2% REGISTERED Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 40 Marco Rubio, the Republican 52 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire ; Page 3
4 : Registered Voters Split Sample: n=931, MOE +/- 3.2%; October 2015: Registered Voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0% REGISTERED October 2015 Bernie Sanders, the Democrat Donald Trump, the Republican Undecided : Registered Voters Split Sample: n=931, MOE +/- 3.2% REGISTERED Bernie Sanders, the Democrat 55 Ted Cruz, the Republican 36 : Registered Voters Split Sample: n=931, MOE +/- 3.2% REGISTERED Bernie Sanders, the Democrat 50 Marco Rubio, the Republican 41 : Residents: n=2059, MOE +/-2.2; Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=569, MOE +/- 4.1%; Likely Democratic Primary Voters: n=425, MOE +/- 4.8% Which one of the following issues is most important to you for the 2016 presidential election: National security and terrorism Job creation and economic growth Health Care The deficit and government spending Immigration Climate change Religious and moral values All of them equally None of these <1 <1 <1 Other Unsure NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire ; Page 4
5 : Residents Split Sample: n=1483, MOE +/-2.5; Likely Republican Primary Voters Split Sample: n=403, MOE +/- 4.9%; Likely Democratic Do you support or oppose making laws covering the sale of firearms more strict? Support Oppose Unsure : Residents Split Sample: n=1483, MOE +/-2.5; Likely Republican Primary Voters Split Sample: n=403, MOE +/- 4.9%; Likely Democratic Do you support or oppose free trade with foreign countries? Support Oppose Unsure : Residents Split Sample: n=1483, MOE +/-2.5; Likely Republican Primary Voters Split Sample: n=403, MOE +/- 4.9%; Likely Democratic Do you support or oppose immigration policies which include a pathway to citizenship for undocumented or illegal immigrants? Support Oppose Unsure : Residents Split Sample: n=1483, MOE +/-2.5; Likely Republican Primary Voters Split Sample: n=403, MOE +/- 4.9%; Likely Democratic Do you support or oppose sending U.S. combat troops to Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS? Support Oppose Unsure NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire ; Page 5
6 : Residents Split Sample: n=1476, MOE +/-2.6; Likely Republican Primary Voters Split Sample: n=402, MOE +/- 4.9%; Likely Democratic Primary Voters Split Sample: n=301, MOE +/- 5.6% Do you support or oppose same-sex marriage, that is, allowing gay or lesbian couples to legally marry? Support Oppose Unsure : Residents Split Sample: n=1476, MOE +/-2.6; Likely Republican Primary Voters Split Sample: n=402, MOE +/- 4.9%; Likely Democratic Primary Voters Split Sample: n=301, MOE +/- 5.6% Do you support or oppose the government taking action to combat climate change? Support Oppose Unsure : Residents Split Sample: n=1476, MOE +/-2.6; Likely Republican Primary Voters Split Sample: n=402, MOE +/- 4.9%; Likely Democratic Primary Voters Split Sample: n=301, MOE +/- 5.6% Do you support or oppose banning Muslims from entering the United States? Support Oppose Unsure : Residents: n=2059, MOE +/- 2.2%; Registered Voters: n=1888, MOE +/- 2.3%; Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=569, MOE +/- 4.1%; Likely Democratic Primary Voters: n=425, MOE +/- 4.8%; October 2015: Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; Registered Voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; September 2015: Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; Registered Voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%; July 2015: Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0%; Registered Voters: n=910, MOE +/- 3.2% Are you male or female? October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Male Female REGISTERED October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Male Female Male 55 Female 45 Male 40 Female 60 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire ; Page 6
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll. Indiana Questionnaire
Residents: n=2568, MOE +/- 1.9% Registered Voters: n=2149, MOE +/-2.1% NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Indiana Questionnaire Potential Republican Electorate: n=1110, MOE +/- 2.9% Likely Republican Primary Voters:
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