Group Unweighted N Plus or minus Total sample 5, percentage points

Transcription

1 METHODOLOGY The NBC News Online Survey was conducted online by SurveyMonkey September 16-8, 2015 among a national sample of 5,113 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census Bureau s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. Polls conducted in one day may include additional error due to the limited time period that panelists have to respond to and complete the survey. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent of voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead." The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an even split in most groupings (such as gender): Group Unweighted N Plus or minus Total sample 5, percentage points Republican RVs 2, percentage points Democrat RVs 1, percentage points percentage points percentage points percentage points percentage points White percentage points Black percentage points Hispanic percentage points Other percentage points 1

2 TOPLINES Questions 1 2, 5, held for future releases. 3. Which one of the following issues matters MOST in your decision for whom you are supporting for president in 2016? [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES] Immigration 9 Terrorism 6 Jobs and the economy 28 Taxes and government spending 16 Economic inequality 10 Education 6 Climate change 3 Health care 8 Religious freedom 6 Foreign policy 5 Campaign finance 1 DK/NA 2 4. Which one of the following candidate qualities matters MOST in your decision for whom you are supporting for president in 2016? [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES] Shares my values 12 Right experience 4 Is honest and trustworthy 20 Cares about people like me 12 Can bring about needed change 32 Has the right temperament 2 Is a strong leader 16 Don t know 2 [SPLIT SAMPLE Q6 & Q7] 6. Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate for president supports cutting off federal government funding to Planned Parenthood, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, less likely, or wouldn t it make much difference to your vote? More likely to Less likely to vote for vote for Not much difference N/A Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, less likely, or wouldn t it make much difference to your vote? 2

3 More likely to Less likely to vote for vote for Not much difference N/A [SPLIT SAMPLE Q8 and Q9] 8. Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate for president wants to send ground troops to Iraq or Syria to fight ISIS (Islamic militants), would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, less likely, or wouldn t it make much difference to your vote? More likely to vote for Less likely to vote for Not much difference N/A Thinking about the 2016 election, if a candidate for president wants to withdraw from the recent multinational agreement with Iran (which lifts sanctions in exchange for Iran curtailing their nuclear program), would that make you more likely to vote for him or her, less likely, or wouldn t it make much difference to your vote? More likely to vote for Less likely to vote for Not much difference N/A In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? Republican Democrat Independent DK/No answer [ASK IF INDEPENDENT or SKIP] As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? Republican Democrat Neither DK/NA

4 [ASK OF REPUBLICANS AND LEAN REPUBLICANS] 12. Here is a list of possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in If the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-16] RV RV RV RV Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina NA Jim Gilmore * * NA NA Lindsey Graham * Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal * John Kasich George Pataki 1 * * NA Rand Paul Rick Perry NA Marco Rubio Rick Santorum * * 1 NA Donald Trump NA Scott Walker Someone else Wouldn t vote/ Don t know No answer Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you expect to win the Republican nomination for president in 2016? RV RV Jeb Bush Ben Carson 10 1 Chris Christie 1 4 Ted Cruz 4 8 Carly Fiorina 6 NA Jim Gilmore * NA Lindsey Graham * 1 Mike Huckabee 1 3 Bobby Jindal * 0 John Kasich 1 1 George Pataki * NA Rand Paul 1 6 Rick Perry NA 3 Marco Rubio 5 3 Rick Santorum * NA Donald Trump 32 NA Scott Walker 1 8 Don t know Someone else (please specify) 1 1 No answer 2 1 4

5 16. Did you happen to watch either of the debates among the Republican candidates for president that were held on Wednesday night, or not? * I watched both debates I watched the first debate that included four candidates 3 2 I watched the second debate that included eleven candidates I did not watch the debates live, but followed coverage of them in the news I did not watch the debates and haven t really followed news coverage about them No answer 2 2 *Slightly different wording was used to match previous debate dates and number of candidates in debates. [Ask if Q16=1-4] 17. From what you have heard and read, who do you think won or did the best job in the Republican debates? Among Republican & Republican Leaning RVs who watched or followed coverage * Jeb Bush 7 2 Ben Carson 7 8 Chris Christie 4 2 Ted Cruz 4 12 Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore NA * Lindsey Graham 1 * Mike Huckabee 1 5 Bobby Jindal * * John Kasich * 2 George Pataki * * Rand Paul 1 3 Rick Perry NA * Marco Rubio 8 13 Rick Santorum * * Donald Trump Scott Walker 1 3 None of them 8 11 No answer 2 1 *Answers were randomized. 5

6 18. From what you have heard and read, who do you think did the worst job in the Republican debates? Among Republican & Republican Leaning RVs who watched or followed coverage * Jeb Bush Ben Carson 2 1 Chris Christie 4 9 Ted Cruz 3 1 Carly Fiorina 2 2 Jim Gilmore NA 2 Lindsey Graham 5 8 Mike Huckabee 3 1 Bobby Jindal 2 1 John Kasich 4 2 George Pataki 5 2 Rand Paul Rick Perry NA 2 Marco Rubio * 1 Rick Santorum 2 1 Donald Trump Scott Walker 6 1 None of them No answer 4 1 *Answers were randomized. 19. From what you have heard and read, which candidate do you think appeared to be the most presidential in the Republican debates? Among Republican & Republican Leaning RVs who watched or followed coverage Jeb Bush 14 Ben Carson 13 Chris Christie 4 Ted Cruz 7 Carly Fiorina 14 Lindsey Graham 1 Mike Huckabee 3 Bobby Jindal * John Kasich 3 George Pataki * Rand Paul 1 Marco Rubio 11 Rick Santorum * Donald Trump 17 Scott Walker 2 None of them 7 No answer 3 6

7 20. In general, how would you describe your views on most political issues? Are you: Very conservative Conservative Moderate Liberal Very liberal DK/NA Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you registered to vote in the election district where you now live, or aren t you? Yes, registered to vote No, not registered to vote Don t know* N/A Are you: Male Female How old are you? and older DK/NA Some people think of themselves as evangelical or born again Christians. Do you ever think of yourself in either of these ways? Yes No DK/NA How often do you attend religious or worship services, not including weddings and funerals? More than once a week Once a week One or twice a month A few times a year Seldom Never DK/NA

8 26. What was the last grade of school you completed? Did not complete high school High school or G.E.D Associate degree Some College College Post graduate degree DK/NA Are you: White 66 Black 12 Hispanic 14 Asian 3 Other 5 DK/NA 28. My total family income last year was: Under $15,000 Between $15,000- $29,999 Between $30,000- $49,999 Between $50,000- $74,999 Between $75,000- $99,999 Between $100,000- $150,000 Over $150,000 DK/ NA

9 We have recalculated respondents who skipped the primary question or had no answer; we present the following tables to show how recalculating the no answers would change the percentages. No percentage category changed more than 1 point. The table highlighted in yellow is what we originally published; the green highlights indicate where a number shifted. We will use this new calculation going forward and publish only the recalculated trends. [ASK OF REPUBLICANS AND LEAN REPUBLICANS] Here is a list of possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in If the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-16] RV RV RV Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina 8 2 NA Jim Gilmore * NA NA Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki * * NA Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum * 1 NA Donald Trump NA Scott Walker Someone else Wouldn t vote/ Don t know No answer X 2 X RV RV RV Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina 8 2 NA Jim Gilmore * NA NA Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki * * NA Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum * 1 NA Donald Trump NA Scott Walker Someone else Wouldn t vote/ Don t know

10 No answer