Renewables International. www.renewablesinternational.net Analysis of electricity production in EU-28 up to 2014 with a focus on renewables Bernard CHABOT BCCONSULT, Garbejaire B107, 06560 VALBONNE, France Consulting and training on Sustainable Energy Email: Bernard_Chabot@yahoo.fr 1
Content Scope, main findings and conclusions: 3 Sources and References: 4 Electricity production and consumption up to 2014: 5-10 Monthly electricity production in 2014: 11-18 Shares of renewables production by countries: 19-27 Renewables, fossils and nuclear capacities in EU: 28-31 Average annual full load hours in EU-28 in 2013: 32-33 2
Scope, Main Findings and Conclusions This document presents data and analysis related to the electricity production in the European Union up to 2014 from the last data provided by ENTSO-E, EUROSTAT and BP. Provisional data give a total of electricity production in EU of 3,100 TWh in 2013 from EUROSTAT and 3,013 TWh in 2014 from ENTSO-E (excluding Malta in this last case). Final electricity consumption was 2,778 TWh in 2013. Both production and final consumption are now lower than their maximum that occurred before the 2008 economic crisis. According to the ENTSO provisional data for 2014, with 848 TWh renewables provided 28.1 % of the 3,013 TWh production (of which 13 % and 455 TWh from non-hydro renewables) compared to 27.7 % from nuclear and 42.2 % from fossil fuels. The growth of electricity production from renewables (mainly from wind, bioenergy and now solar PV and a consequence of the 2001 and the 2009 Directives on renewables) has allowed a sharp decrease of electricity production from fossil fuels, even in the context of a decreasing nuclear electricity production since 2004, which is now lower than renewables. The monthly combination of wind production (more than 235 TWh in 2014 and 7.8 % of total according to ENTSO data) and the solar PV production (more than 95 TWh and 3% of total) results in a total of more than 326 TWh and 10.8 % of total EU electricity production, with a profile well adapted to the monthly EU-28 demand (see slides 17 and 18). EU-28 Renewable electricity production is still concentrated in a small number of Member States, which gives the opportunity for a larger potential growth up to 2020 and to 2030. All renewables installed capacities are increasing, compared to a decrease for nuclear since 2003 and for fossil fuels from 2012, but fossil fuels have still the highest installed capacity. Recent decreases in renewables net annual changes of capacity should be reversed in order to ensure (in combination with energy efficiency and demand change management) a success for EU energy security and climate change policies and in order to reach the 2020 and 2030 RE targets in EU. 3
Sources of data and main references ENTSO-E data: www.entsoe.eu/data/data-portal/pages/default.aspx Data for 2014 are provisional ENTSO-E data include all EU-28 countries except Malta Data for new renewables may not be provided explicitly for some countries. For example data for PV are not provided for UK and data for wind are not provided for Austria. In such cases, relevant data may be included in the renewables total or in the subtotal «non-hydro renewables» EUROSTAT: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ Data for 2014 are provisional BP Statistical Review 2014 www.bp.com Refer to author s preceding analysis and conclusions on electricity, renewables and nuclear: «Analysis of nuclear market and electricity production up to 2014 and 2040 with some strategic comparisons with renewables», on line April 1 st, 2015 and downloadable as PDF at ; http://www.renewablesinternational.net/nuclearand-renewables-past-present-and-future/150/537/86653/ Analysis of the Global Electricity Production up to 2013 With a Focus On the Contribution From Renewables, on line July 14,2014 and downloadable at: www.renewablesinternational.net/world-electricity-production-in- 2013/150/537/80167/ «Analysis of Electricity Production in USA up to 2014 with a Focus on Renewables And on Wind Power», on line March 19, 2015, and downloadable as PDF at : http://www.renewablesinternational.net/us-renewable-energy-data- 2014/150/537/86312/ «Electricity in Germany up to 2014 with a focus on the production and the share from renewables», on line January 22, 2015, and downloadable as PDF at: www.renewablesinternational.net/germanys-largely-unsung-success-withefficiency/150/537/84829/ Analysis of Recent Electricity Production and Consumption in France, online January 21, 2014 and downloadable as PDF at: www.renewablesinternational.net/overview-of-french-power-data-for-2013/150/537/76134/ 4
Electricity production and consumption in EU-28 up to 2014 5
Both EU-28 production and consumption of electricity are now decreasing due to the economic crisis and to progress in energy efficiency and demand side management 6
According to the 2015 EUROSTAT data, the growth of electricity production from renewables (mainly a consequence of the 2001 and the 2009 Directives on renewables) has allowed a sharp decrease of electricity production from fossil fuels, even in the context of a decreasing nuclear electricity production since 2004 7
Increases of power from wind, from bioenergy and now also from solar PV are the main drivers of the growth of electricity from renewables in the EU 8
Renewables are now the second source of electricity in EU-28 2014. Data (p) from ENTSO-E. B. CHABOT - BCCONSULT 4/2015 EU 28 less Malta GWh/year % of 2014 production Hydropower 393 142 13,0% Wind power 235 322 7,8% 10,8% Solar power 90 668 3,0% 15,1% 28,1% Bioenergy 101 721 3,4% Other RE/non allocated 26 924 0,9% Fossil fuels 1 270 090 42,2% Nuclear 833 286 27,7% Other/non allocated 61 803 2,1% TOTAL production 3 012 956 100% 9
Renewable electricity production in EU-28 is now higher than nuclear 10
Monthly electricity production in 2014 11
Electricity demand (including T&D losses) is higher in winter in EU-28 12
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RE and non-hydro renewables production profiles are well adapted to the monthly demand profile in EU 28 14
Hard coal and lignite are still major electricity production sources in EU-28 15
Monthly non-hydro renewables production is stable along the year 16
Wind and solar (mainly PV) production are complementary along the year and deliver a combined production well adapted to the monthly demand in EU 17
Wind delivered 72 % of the 326 TWh from [Wind + Solar] in 2014 (10.8 % of the 2014 EU-28 electricity production (7.8 % from wind and 3 % from solar) 18
Share of electricity production by countries 19
Electricity demand in EU-28 in 2014 (including T & D losses) 20
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Half of the 2014 EU-28 nuclear production was from France 22
¾ of the 848 TWh of renewable electricity in 2014 was from 7 countries 23
More than ¾ of the 455 TWh of non-hydro renewables in 2014 was from 7 countries and Germany covered near 28 % with 127 TWh 24
¾ of the 393 TWh of 2014 hydropower was from 6 countries 25
Near ¾ of the 235 TWh of 2014 EU-28 wind power was from 6 countries, and 45 % from only Germany and Spain 26
More than ¾ of solar production (mainly PV) in 2014 was concentrated in Germany, Italy and Spain. The total of more than 91 TWh is already higher than the total of 85 TWh in 2020 proposed for solar PV in the 28 NREAPs published in 2011 27
Renewables, fossils and nuclear installed capacity in EU-28 on 1990-2013 28
All renewables capacities are increasing, compared to a decrease for nuclear since 2003 and for fossil fuels from 2012, but fossil fuels have still the highest capacity 29
Higher net annual changes in installed capacities were from renewables since 2000 (except in 2006), with a maximum of + 34.7 GW in 2011, but then decreasing along with recent and hopefully temporary solar decrease. Nuclear changes were null or negative since 2000, except in 2002 and recent net changes for fossils are negative 30
In 2014, net changes in capacity were positive for wind, solar PV, biomass and hydro compared to zero net change for nuclear and very negative changes for fossil fuels Source: EWEA, Wind in Power, 2014 European Statistics, February 2015 31
Average annual equivalent full load hours in EU-28 in 2013 32
Mean capacity factor of geothermal power is higher in the EU than for nuclear. Increase of the RE share in electricity production has decreased both production and capacity factors of conventional fossil fuels based power plants, a very positive and encouraging result for energy security and climate policies in EU and Member States 33