Vision of Jämtland and Trøndelag A living laboratory as a fossil free region

Transcription

1 Vision of Jämtland and Trøndelag A living laboratory as a fossil free region Jiehong Kong SINTEF Energy Research Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 1

2 Introduction SINTEF Energy Research Electric Power Systems Electric Power Technology Energy Efficiency Energy Systems Gas Technology Thermal Energy Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 2

3 Introduction PhD, NHH Norwegian school of Economics PhD thesis is about modeling an integrated market for roundwood and forest biomass Cooperated with the Forestry Research Institute of Sweden (Skogforsk) Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 3

4 Outline NORSTRAT project A carbon neutral power system in the Nordic region in 2050 Integration of forestry value chains Forest biomass for district heating and impact on traditional forest industries Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 4

5 NORSTRAT Nordic Energy Road Map for 2050 Objective: To build knowledge about possible carbon neutral futures for an integrated Nordic power system in a time perspective up to 2050 based on qualitative scenario analysis of impacts on the electricity, the transport and the heating system combined with the necessary governance aspects to enable the transformation. Project period: August Reference group : Enova, Energi Norge, Vattenfall, Dong Energy, Statnett, Fingrid, Energinet.dk, Svenska Kraftnät, Fortum, Dansk Energi, Vestas, Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 5

6 A carbon neutral power system in the Nordic region in 2050 A part of NORSTRAT project Focus on: The Nordic power system Expansion of transmission girds The role of Nordic power system in a European system A scenario methodology is used to analyse the future system A 26 node EMPS model for the Nordic region is used 41 years with statistical data about inflow to the hydropower system, wind and solar resources are used Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 6

7 Volume of new RES in the Nordic region NORSTRAT scenarios Purely RES TWh/y of new production from RES Nuclear phased out Connection to Europe mainly as today European Hub TWh/y of new production from RES Up to 20 GW increased capacity in the Norwegian hydro power Increased integration with Europe Carbon Neutral Nordic TWh/y of new production from RES Connection to Europe mainly as today European Battery TWh/y of new production from RES Up to 20 GW increased capacity in the Norwegian hydro power Increased integration with Europe RES Renewable Energy Sources Integration between the Nordic region and the rest of Europe Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 7

8 Demand in the Nordic region population Increase in population to 2050 in each Nordic country (1000 persons) Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 8

9 Demand in the Nordic region Estimated demand increase due to expected increase in population TWh/y Denmark 3,5 Finland 7,5 Norway 26,0 Sweden 21,0 Total 58,0 Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 9

10 New production from RES - Wind Identified onshore wind power production projects Sweden 2012 (Source: Svensk Vindenergi 2012) Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 10

11 New production from RES - Wind Identified wind power production projects Midt-Norge September 2013 (Source: NVE) Nord-Trøndelag Sør-Trøndelag Effekt [MW] Energi [GWh] Effekt [MW] Energi [GWh] Under behandling Gitt konsesjon Planlegging avsluttet TOTALT Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 11

12 New production from RES - Hydro Identified hydropower production Norway 2012 (Source: NVE) Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 12

13 New production from RES - Bioenergy Techno-economical biomass resources in 20 European countries (Alkangas 2007) 180 TWh/y 45 TWh/y 110 TWh/y Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 13

14 New production from RES - Bioenergy Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 14

15 Power balance for each of the nodes in the Nordic region in 2050 in Scenario "Carbon Neutral" Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 15

16 Outline NORSTRAT project A carbon neutral power system in the Nordic region in 2050 Integration of forestry value chains Forest biomass for district heating and impact on traditional forest industries Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 16

17 Background Forest bioenergy Several reasons for the development of forest bioenergy Energy crisis in 1970 s Soaring prices of fossil fuel Near zero net release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Safe, stable and renewable energy Many counties have established sustainable energy goals to encourage energy generation from forest biomass Austria (Gronalt and Rauch 2007) Belgium (Van Belle et al. 2003) Finland (Palander, 2011) Ireland (Murphy et al. 2010) Sweden (Gunnarsson et al. 2004) USA (Galik et al., 2009) Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 17

18 Background Swedish situation (Demand) 'Oil crises' from mid 1970's made it clear the Sweden needed to secure a domestic supply of fuels. The use of renewable energy resources (hydropower, forest biomass, wind and sun) contribute to more than 47% of the total energy use in District heating accounts for providing heating and electricity for more than 50% of the households. Of Sweden's 290 municipalities 270 are using district heating. District heating has been a major 'product' based on forest biomass. TWh coal 3% waste heat - heatpumps 7% cogeneration 5% peat 4% other fossil fuel 1% oil 7% waste 16% Industry Residential and service Forest biomass 45 % waste heat - industry 6% natural gas 5% waste gas 1% Production Proportion of energy in of district fuel for heating district between heating in and 2005 Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 18

19 Background Swedish situation (Supply) How we use the wood ~5-6 % Forest residues tops and branches Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 19

20 Supply range Research questions What is the impact of integration on market prices for raw materials? Integration VS Separation What is the impact of price mechanism on the entire wood flows? Free price VS Fixed price Unit purchasing cost range Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 20

21 Case study Geographical distribution Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 21

22 Main results Integration combined with price mechanism result in 3% total cost savings Market prices for pulpwood in an integrated market increase Resources can be effectively allocated by the price mechanism Find equilibrium prices for raw materials in each harvest area Integrated market Separated market Free price ,573 million MWh SEK Total cost: 3% Fixed price 595,631 MWh million SEK Energy value of biomass: 23% Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 22

23 Thanks for your attention! SINTEF Energy Research Jiehong Kong