The Global Aviation Market: A Boeing Perspective Boeing International Relations January 19, 2006
Aviation is moving from being highly regulated to a more liberalized and competitive marketplace
Passengers drive airline strategies
Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops Index 1980=1.00 3.5 3.0 World Air Travel Growth 2.5 Frequency Growth 2.0 Nonstop Markets 1.5 1.0 Average Airplane Size 0.5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 August OAG
Since 1995, all air travel growth has been met by frequency growth and new nonstops Index 1995=1.00 1.6 1.5 1.4 World Frequency Growth Air Travel Growth Nonstop Markets 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 August OAG 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average Airplane Size
China domestic air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops Index 1990=1.00 13.0 11.0 9.0 Frequency Growth Air Travel Growth 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 Nonstop Markets Average Airplane Size August OAG -1.0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Includes Hong Kong and Macau
China domestic frequencies have increased more than twelve-fold since 1990 1990 2000 2005 Total ASK Total Frequencies Total Airport Pairs Airplane Size (Seats) 391 million 2,095 170 157 2,084 million 12,146 605 169 4,010 million 25,412 706 154 URC August OAG Includes Hong Kong and Macau CTU KMG XIY SIA < < WUH < SHE Cities served at least daily shown
Market evolution summary World markets are evolving Liberalization continues to create a more competitive environment Airline strategies are responding to passengers desires to save time Airlines have accommodated air travel growth by adding more frequencies and nonstops Boeing expects these trends to continue
20-year forecast: strong long-term growth 10 RPKs (trillions) 8 Historical Future 6 4 2 Forecast growth annual rate 4.8% (2005-2024) Long-Term Growth 2005-2024 GDP = 2.9% Passenger = 4.8% Cargo = 6.2% 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Long-term demand for new airplanes remains strong 40,000 Units 35,300 30,000 20,000 16,778 10,000 18,500 Growth Airplanes 7,200 Replacements 9,600 Retained Fleet 25,700 0 2004 2024
Airlines will need 25,700 new airplanes Regional jets Single-aisle Twin-aisle 747 and larger 3% 15% 11% 5% 22% 39% 60% 45% 25,700 airplanes 2.1 trillion delivery dollars* *In year 2004 dollars
Freighter fleet will double three-quarters will be modified airplanes Standard-body (<50 tons) Medium widebody (40-65 tons) Large (>65 tons) 2004 2024 26% 34% 36% 53% 21% 30% 1,760 freighters 3,530 freighters
Congestion is not driving large airplane use up NRT HKG HND JFK 747 Share of Departures 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Hong Kong Narita LHR 30% Haneda CDG FRA 20% 10% London Heathrow New York City - JFK LAX 0% 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 August OAG
Nonstop service continues to bypass mega-hubs, not consolidate Air Canada Emirates London Heathrow London-Heathrow London-Heathrow Passengers prefer more nonstops and frequency choices Toronto American Delhi New York (JFK) Continental Dubai London-Heathrow London-Heathrow Chicago Manchester New York (EWR) Geneva
New nonstop flights continue to grow, not consolidate Airport Pairs 11,000 Airbus claims the number of city pairs has stagnated since 1996 Airbus projects fewer airport pairs in 2022 than served today 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 ~2,200 Airport Pairs Added Since 1996 5,000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Data from August Schedules NOTE: Excludes regional jets
2005 current market outlook summary In a liberalized, more competitive environment, passengers desires will drive airline strategies and airplane selections Boeing and Airbus agree passenger travel will grow about 5 percent per year over the next 20 years Boeing believes the current trend of more frequencies and nonstop flights will continue to accommodate this growth Airbus is projecting a significant trend shift to larger airplanes Boeing forecasts airlines will need about 25,700 new airplanes valued at $2.1 trillion
Boeing Overview Boeing Commercial Airplanes: Offers a broad portfolio of airplanes and aviation services for its passenger and freighter airline customers worldwide Approximately seven out of every 10 BCA deliveries go to customers outside of the U.S. Boeing Capital Corp: Provides financing for our aircraft Connexion By Boeing: Formed in April of 2000 to develop technologies that can provide high-speed broadband data communications to air travelers Now branching into the maritime market Integrated Defense Systems: Formed in 2002 with the integration of Boeing s defense, space, intelligence and communications capabilities into one single unit Phantom Works: Enterprise-wide R&D function
Boeing s Vision 2016 People working together as a global enterprise for aerospace leadership
Boeing s Business Transformation 1998-2006 Commercial Airplane Manufacturer Product Focused Hardware & Platforms Exporter Balanced Aerospace Company Business Focused Systems & Solutions Global Becoming more global is is about growth and productivity
What is a Global Enterprise? Functions with the world as its operating unit Coordinates and integrates its activities and processes on worldwide basis Creates value -- and competitive advantage -- by discovering, mobilizing and leveraging resources and capabilities across borders Being global also means being strong locally Local presence allows greater responsiveness to local market conditions and customers as well as other stakeholders How we operate just as important as where Balance Between Global Coordination and Local Responsiveness
Boeing as a Global Enterprise Today R&D/Engineering (Define) Moscow and Madrid R&T Centers, Design Center International university and research agency partnerships Suppliers/Sourcing (Buy) Nearly 5,250 suppliers in close to 100 countries (including the US) Global partners for new products (787) Production manufacturing & services (Build) Subsidiaries in Canada, Australia, Germany via acquisitions Joint Ventures; e.g. China, Malaysia, Morocco Sales (Acquire): 2004 sales were $52.5B from customers in 145 countries International sales were nearly 30% International industry alliances to access new markets and customers After Market (Support) Field service reps, parts & distribution centers around world
Boeing Research and Technology Europe Employees from 8 European Countries Programs Won include: IMAGINE aircraft noise source modeling AERONEWS aircraft health monitoring CAATS coordination on ATM projects from FP6 E GB F B NL Leveraging the Best of of Europe D I G Collaborate with over 70 European Universities, Companies and Research Institutes ANOTEC, DEBAKOM, CSTB, DELTA, DLR, EEC, EMPA, ENEA, TNO Universidades de Leuven, Brussels, Bristol, Exeter, Naples, Torino y Nottingham. Fraunhofer Inst. Cranfield, VZLU, Inst. de Acústica CSIC, Masquito Aircraft, DAKEL, GIP ULTRASONS, ASCO Ind., NDT, Celsius Saab NLR, AENA, ECC, INECO, NATS
Lean Global Enterprise Legend: Top 20 partners, Global partners and IP suppliers Boeing Internal Top CAS suppliers Major Boeing Spares Centers Boeing Field Offices Aligning Global Operations
787 International Team at Work
Structures Partners Working Together Hawker de Havilland Moveable Trailing Edges KHI Fixed Trailing Edge Saab Cargo Doors, Access Doors Spirit Aerosystems Leading Edges MHI Wing Box Spirit Aerosystems Engine Pylons KHI FHI Fuselage, Center Wheel Well Wing Box Latecoere Passenger Doors Spirit Aerosystems Forward Fuselage Messier-Dowty GE Landing Gear Engines Boeing Fredrickson Vertical Tail Boeing Winnipeg Wing-to-Body Fairing Alenia/Vought Horizontal Stabilizer, Center Fuselage, Aft Fuselage Rolls-Royce Engines Goodrich Nacelles KAL-ASD Wingtips
We Deal with a Diverse Set of Globalization Policy & Regulatory Issues Trade policies towards an open and level playing field Subsidies Free Trade Agreements WTO Export licensing/technology transfer rules Regulatory issues that impact aviation/aerospace Open Skies Cape Town Convention Environmental rules Offshoring concerns Geopolitical: China, India, Middle East, Russia, EU, etc. Potential system shocks e.g. avian flu
Our Key Enabling Elements for Globalization People: The most important resource Develop, value and mobilize global intellect within Boeing Presence: Requires the right structure in the right markets Create local responsiveness via Country VPs and teams who know the local scene and can provide one company face to local stakeholders Processes: Linking People, Presence and Boeing business units through coordinated global processes Strategy, Communications, Business Management, and Community Relations processes that are globally scaled and coordinated -- yet locally responsive
Current International Relations Presence N. Europe Canada USA UK Germany Russia/CIS EU-NATO C. Europe France Italy Turkey China Korea Spain M. East Japan Israel S. Arabia India SE Asia Africa Australia Leveraging Boeing s current international operations and supporting development of of new opportunities
Boeing Globalization Roadmap Our Global Strengths Today Globalization 1.0 Sales Our Next Global Strengths 3-5 yrs: Globalization 2.0 Market Shaping Product Sourcing Airplane parts/ structures Product Support Airplanes Country VPs/Teams Intellectual Sourcing R&D Engineering IT/Software Aviation Services Solutions Business Unit leaders managing Global Businesses
Boeing Globalization Roadmap: Where Can We Go? Networked Global Operations Several business operations with nodes around the world, leveraging the core competencies of different countries Example: 747-400 Special Freighter program Engineering in Long Beach, Puget Sound and Moscow Digitization work in India (via Moscow BDC) Modification work in China at our TAECO joint venture International alliances that create business growth Access/development of new markets, products & services, technologies. Examples: Finmeccanica, MHI alliances International expansion into new types of markets Examples: New applications for network centric capabilities; aviation services (e.g. India, China)
In Closing We re launched on our way to becoming truly global Capabilities and processes are rapidly being put in place Leveraging those capabilities and processes and executing on strategy will make Boeing s Vision 2016 a reality
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