Commercial Update. John Leahy Chief Operating Officer Customers Airbus. Global Investor Forum 2009, Broughton, 1 st & 2 nd April 2009

Transcription

1 Commercial Update John Leahy Chief Operating Officer Customers Airbus Global Investor Forum 2009, Broughton, 1 st & 2 nd April

2 Safe Harbour Statement Disclaimer This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Words such as anticipates, believes, estimates, expects, intends, plans, projects, may and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include statements made about strategy, ramp-up and delivery schedules, introduction of new products and services and market expectations, as well as statements regarding future performance and outlook. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances and there are many factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. These factors include but are not limited to: Changes in general economic, political or market conditions, including the cyclical nature of some of EADS businesses; Significant disruptions in air travel (including as a result of terrorist attacks); Currency exchange rate fluctuations, in particular between the Euro and the U.S. dollar; The successful execution of internal performance plans, including cost reduction and productivity efforts; Product performance risks, as well as programme development and management risks; Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations, including financing issues; Competition and consolidation in the aerospace and defence industry; Significant collective bargaining labour disputes; The outcome of political and legal processes, including the availability of government financing for certain programmes and the size of defence and space procurement budgets; Research and development costs in connection with new products; Legal, financial and governmental risks related to international transactions; Legal and investigatory proceedings and other economic, political and technological risks and uncertainties. As a result, EADS actual results may differ materially from the plans, goals and expectations set forth in such forwardlooking statements. For a discussion of factors that could cause future results to differ from such forward-looking statements, see EADS Registration Document dated 24th April Any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation speaks as of the date of this presentation. EADS undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements in light of new information, future events or otherwise. 2 2

3 2008 in review Delivered 483 aircraft highest ever for Airbus Gross orders of 900 aircraft third highest ever for Airbus Ended year with a backlog of 3,715 aircraft an industry record Some key events in 2H 2008 July 2008: first A380 delivery to Emirates Sep 2008: first A380 delivery to Qantas Sep 2008: 1,000th A330 order Sep 2008: opened A320 assembly line in Tianjin, China Dec 2008: on-time detailed definition freeze on the A350 XWB A strong year for Airbus in difficult market conditions 3 3

4 Over 10 years of parity Year end gross order share Boeing 81% Airbus 57% Airbus 19% Boeing 43%

5 Over 10 years of parity Year end net order share Boeing 83% Airbus 54% Airbus 17% Boeing 46%

6 Market share by category - net 2008 net orders 472 A320 Family 49% 51% % 34% seater 956 orders A310 A A seater 207 orders A A A A340 61% 39% % 25% seater 264 orders A seater 12 orders ACJ 9 47% BBJ 10 53% A % % 6 6

7 2009 market share 2009 gross orders Units Revenues Airbus 22 a/c 49% 50% Boeing 23 a/c Airbus $2.9bn 54% 46% Boeing $2.5bn 45 orders industry $5.4 bn industry Data as of 30 March

8 2009 market share 2009 net orders Units Revenues Airbus 8 a/c 100% Boeing -9 a/c Airbus $1.8bn 100% Boeing $-3.1bn -1 orders industry $-1.3 bn industry Data as of 30 March

9 Market Outlook 9 9

10 Freight traffic trends Freight traffic (IATA international + domestic ATA + domestic AEA FTKs year over year change) 30% 20% 9/11 SARS 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 17 months peak to trough Source: IATA-MIS (March 2009), ATA, AEA 8 months peak to trough * 13 months from peak * * * Cargo traffic down 19%, but capacity reduced by only 7% * leap year adjusted Capacity reduction 10 10

11 Passenger traffic trends Passenger traffic (IATA international + domestic ATA + domestic AEA RPKs year over year change) 30% 20% 9/11 SARS 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 10 months peak to trough months peak to trough * months from peak * * * Passenger traffic down 8% and capacity already reduced by 6% Source: IATA-MIS (March 2009), ATA, AEA * leap year adjusted Capacity reduction 11 11

12 Economists anticipate recession bottoms in 3Q 2009 Real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% World USA Western Europe Japan Other adv economies Emerging economies We are here Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Strong growth since 2004 Source: Global Insight (March 2009), Airbus Slowdown Deep crisis Recovery Complete recovery 12 12

13 Still a two-speed World 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Real GDP growth (%) Emerging economies Advanced economies 0% -2% % Source: Global Insight (March 2009), Airbus 13 13

14 Previous downturns & recoveries World air traffic growth (%RPKs) 14% % % % % 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year (Estimate) 2009 (Forecast*) 2010 (Forecast*) 2011 (Forecast) Source: ICAO, Airbus Market Research and Forecast 14 14

15 Traffic recovery anticipated for % World air traffic growth (%RPKs) 12% 10% % 6% 4% 2% Best case Worst case 0% -2% -4% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year (Estimate) 2009 (Forecast*) 2010 (Forecast*) 2011 (Forecast) Source: ICAO, Airbus Market Research and Forecast 15 15

16 4 significant down cycles in the last 40 years 1000 Deliveries (>100 seats) Boeing/MDC deliveries Airbus deliveries -7% -50% Conservative production planning helps against downturns 16 16

17 A strong, well-managed order book Airbus order backlog vs order cancellations 4000 Backlog Cancellations % 4% 2% 6% 4% 2% 0 3% 1% 3% 3% Order cancellations are rare, even in 2001 and 2002 Data at end December

18 Airbus backlog is well balanced Airbus Boeing North America 8% / 17% Europe 19% / 19% Middle East 13% / 7% China 11% / 8% Lessors 18% / 20% Corporate Jet 3% / 2% Latin America 6% / 5% Africa 2% / 2% Asia* / Pacific 21% / 21% *Includes Indian sub-continent Data March

19 Customer backlog Top ten customers backlog 1 US Airways Emirates Air Asia DAE Capital EasyJet 89 6 Qatar Airways 85 7 CIT Leasing 82 8= TAM 76 8= IndiGo AWAS 75 Total

20 Air travel remains a strong growth market World annual traffic (RPK trillions) 10 ICAO total traffic Airbus 8 6 Air traffic has doubled every 15 years Air traffic will double in the next 15 years Source: ICAO, Airbus 4.7% annual growth 20 20

21 A320 Family 6,311 firm orders 3,789 delivered 219 customers (February 2009) 472 A320 Family 2008 net unit share 49% 51%

22 The best keeps getting better Systems Enhanced Braking and Steering Control System (2000) New Cabin Intercommunication Data System (2003) Integrated Stand-by Instrument System (2003) Cabin New Cabin (2007) Structure Laser beam welding (2003) A319 double over-wing exit (2003) Weight savings (2005 on) Aerodynamic Improvements (2007/8) Engines Noise Improvement Package (2003) CFM Tech Insertion (2007) IAE Select Programme (2008),,, Performance & Operations Narrow (30m) runway ops. (2000) Lift Improvement Package (2004) A318 steep approach (2006) FANS A and B (2006) Head-up display (2007) Microwave landing system (2007) GPS landing systems (2007) Over 100 million spent per year on development engineering 22 22

23 In the downturn, airlines continue to use the A320 Aircraft in storage % of fleet 500 A320 Family 737 Classic + MD80/ % of fleet 0 Dec 2000 Dec 2001 Dec 2002 Source CASE (24 March 09) A320 Family = 3, Classic + MD80/MD90 = 3,002 Dec 2003 Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Feb 2009 Older, less efficient aircraft are grounded, many will not return to service Mar

24 A330/A340 Family 1,397 firm orders 958 delivered 100 customers (February 2009) 133 A330 A net unit share 62% 38%

25 A330 orders now total over 1,000 Firm orders recent orders include: - Full service airlines - Low cost airlines - Leasing companies - Freighters - Tankers Data to end December 2008 Over 500 A330s sold since 787 launch 2007, 2008 best years ever 25 25

26 A330 appraiser valuations Average valuations of 5 U.S. and European appraisers New A , $ millions New A , $ millions New aircraft values 1H each year 26 26

27 2008 AirFinance Journal poll A highest ranked widebody A scores above direct competitors 27 27

28 A350 XWB 478 orders 29 customers (February 2009) 163 A net unit share 64% 36%

29 A350 XWB development on-track Design Development to maturity Ramp-up Manufacturing & assembly 3 years Flight test 15 months Design freeze Detailed definition freeze Start of final assembly First flight EIS -900 EIS -800 EIS A realistic development program leading to on-time EIS 29 29

30 A380 New generation New experience 200 firm orders 16 customers (February 2009) 9 A net unit share 75% 25%

31 A380 - the new flagship for international airlines 200 Top international airlines (International RPKs - millions) A380 customers The top five international carriers are all A380 customers 31 31

32 25 th October 2008 a year in service The A380 has exceeded all expectations, delivered on its promise of reliability and fuel efficiency and is a favourite with customers. Singapore Airlines Press Release October 25 th,

33 Providing more capacity, more comfort Upper deck - true widebody comfort business class, common product with Airbus long range family Main deck - the widest cabin ever wider seats in every class Large innovation potential 33 33

34 A380 attracting passengers Singapore to Sydney Average monthly traffic change 2007 to % 10 5 Introduced October % +0% 34 Source : Airbus DEMAX IATA PAXis 34

35 The A380 network is growing Toronto London * Paris Seoul New York * Tokyo * Bangkok Los Angeles Dubai * Singapore * Sydney * Data to March 2009 Melbourne 13 A380s in service 3,500 revenue flights Over 1,300,000 passengers Auckland 35 35

36 A380 new generation, new experience Best cabin Lowest cost Designed for world growth It takes an A380 to compete with an A380! 36 36

37 Air travel is resilient to shocks World annual traffic (RPK trillions) 10 ICAO total traffic Airbus 8 6 Air traffic has doubled every 15 years Air traffic will double in the next 15 years Source: ICAO, Airbus Air travel remains a strong growth market 37 37