Speech of Mr. Raoul Starmans, Vice President of Royal TenCate China at the ITMF Conference 2014 in Beijing, China

Transcription

1 Speech of Mr. Raoul Starmans, Vice President of Royal TenCate China at the ITMF Conference 2014 in Beijing, China Composites in China 1: Introduction Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen! It is my pleasure to represent TenCate for the first time at an ITMF conference, and an honor to speak for such a distinguished audience here in Beijing. As many of you know TenCate has actively participated in the ITMF platform for many years, but as we are in a new city it might be useful to start off with a quick review of who we are and what we do. TenCate is the world market leader in technical textiles. With strong roots in textile technology and a company history of over 300 years, TenCate combines textile technology with chemical process technology in the development and production of functional materials, modules and systems; it does this independently or in co-operation with third parties. TenCate operates principally in six end-markets reflecting the global trends of safety and sustainability. These markets are mobility, infrastructure, water management, defense, personal protection, sport and leisure. TenCate occupies leading positions in Protective Fabrics, Aerospace Composites, Anti-ballistics, Geosynthetics and Synthetic turf. 2: Advanced Functional Material Market for Low Carbon Applications Advanced Functional Materials have an especially high potential to resolve a wide number of today s material challenges in process industries, power generation, aerospace, transportation, and military applications. Such applications are vital to maintain global competitiveness, decreasing energy consumption, and the carbon footprint. Advanced functional composites are the largest category of advanced functional material by volume; TenCate is active in fiber reinforced plastics arena. Asia-Pacific with a CAGR of 9.2% is the fastest growing market for advanced functional composites. Major applications include aerospace, automotive, energy, pipes & tanks, electronics, and consumer durables. TenCate fiber reinforced plastics are applied in a variety of market segments that fit well into the global trends of safety and sustainability; segments that also have been identified by the Chinese government as key priority industries for sustainable economic development in China. I will come back to this later in my presentation. TenCate has identified Aerospace, Automotive and Industrial applications as main growth drivers for advanced composites; throughout this presentation examples from aerospace and automotive are used to illustrate technological advancements and their relevance to the composites market in China. Government Policy an important driver for advanced composites in China The Chinese economy is highly interventionist and central planning in many cases form the motive for provincial governments and businesses to develop in a certain direction. In the 12th Five-year Plan ( ) advanced materials has been identified as one of seven priority industries. Advanced polymers and high performance composites are two of the six major focus areas within advanced materials, which over the past decade have seen significant developments. Developments in these sectors are highly dependent on government support to create demand, and therefore are policy-led. Policy-led development often creates what I like to call a rush-economy ; government investment and incentives

2 attract high levels market activity. The rush triggers high speed development in a sector, but often leads to overcapacity, putting prices under pressure. Today China is the world s largest manufacturer of glass fiber and epoxy resin and holds increasingly strong positions in resin technology, such as PPS, and carbon fiber manufacturing. These make up the building blocks of a self-sustaining composites industry, with broad market prospects for example in aerospace, clean energy, and clean energy vehicles. The challenge for the next phase of development in composites will be the transition to application development. 3: Advanced Composites in China Developments in the advanced composites sector in China are central in today s presentation. I will present a market outlook for aerospace composites in China, describe how Government policy impacts this market, and review how TenCate is positioning itself in this market to maximize its potential in China. China Aerospace Market Outlook Aerospace as no other industry is focused on lightweight, as less weight directly impacts on the environment and the overall cost of flying. China s aerospace industry has advanced at an impressive rate over the past decade. The rapidly growing governmental support for China s aerospace sector has resulted in an extensive network of aircraft manufacturing and research facilities that work on an increasing number of aircraft and helicopter projects. The utilization of these assets for the commercial aircraft market is heavily dependent on offset programs from large aircraft OEMs across the globe. These offset programs tie players like Boeing and Airbus into cooperation agreements with Chinese aircraft manufacturers to in return share a piece of the action in the fast growing aerospace market. Composite usage in Chinese commercial aerospace currently mainly comes from these offset programs. Both Airbus and Boeing have invested in composite manufacturing facilities in China. Chinese aircraft manufacturers have also invested heavily to build composite manufacturing capacity to support these offset programs. As a result of these offset programs thermoset composites are the mainstream in China. The low-cost high-quality manufacturing alternative provided by China, and the huge market potential continuous to attract aircraft manufacturing companies from across the globe large and small. Let s take a further look at what is attracting all that attention to the Chinese aerospace industry. China air traffic growing rapidly According to the CAAC air traffic to, from and within China increased by 10.6% in 2012; of this growth 78% is domestic, 20% international and 2% with Hong Kong. The growth percentage for Chinese air traffic over the next 20 years is expected to be 6.8% for domestic, and 7.2% international air traffic. If we compare how this growth compares to the rest of the world it becomes apparent that in 20 years time domestic China domestic will have surpassed North America and Europe in terms of air traffic. Commercial Aircraft New deliveries To fuel this growth aircrafts are needed. Boeing predicts that over the next 20 years, China will need close to 6000 new Passenger and Freight aircraft deliveries. In terms of commercial aircraft sales this will represent more than 40% of the APAC region and about 16% of worldwide sales. The outlook for regional jets in China is also promising; according to Embraer over the next 20 years there will be around

3 1005 new deliveries in China accounting for 15% globally with an estimated value of 45Billion USD. Moving to the business jet segment, Bombardier expects 2225 new business jet deliveries over the next 20 years in China with a value of 65billion USD, about 10% of global business jet sales. Over the next 20 years, the total value of the Chinese commercial aircraft market will be around 890 Billion USD. General Aviation General Aviation is another important industry for use of advanced composites. China s general aviation (GA) industry to date remains underdeveloped, factors constraining the growth of General Aviation in China include a restrictive regulatory environment, restricted airspace access, high import duties and underdeveloped infrastructure and supply ecosystem. To illustrate the potential for growth, let s look at the gap with the US General Aviation industry in terms of aircraft volumes and infrastructure. By the end of 2013 there were 1,650 General Aviation Aircrafts in China compared to approximately 224,000 aircrafts in the US. In terms of infrastructure there are about 290 general aviation airports and landing points on the mainland, while the US has at least 21,000. General Aviation policy is high on China s development agenda and has been included as key development area in the five-year plans. The industry is undergoing a period of heavy infrastructure investment in general aviation airfield and facility expansion to fuel further growth, to illustrate this AVIC plans to build 50 general aviation airparks across the country and 82 new airports are planned. AVIC has also invested heavily to buy up aircraft designs and companies. The industry is forecast to reach an annual growth rate of 20% percent. The opportunity for composites in this area comes from new General Aviation aircraft programs, besides a strong helicopter and general aviation aircraft program led by AVIC, there are a number of private groups companies entering General Aviation, including a car manufacturer! In total there are now 18 fixed wing General Aviation programs and 5 helicopter programs under development in China. TenCate Aerospace opportunity China So what is the outlook for composites in the Chinese aerospace industry for TenCate? Offset programs moving to China can create market pull for our products, for TenCate this is for example currently underway with the Cirrus SR20 offset program at CAIGA a general aviation aircraft builder in south China. Cirrus aircrafts are extensively used in the training of pilots; the demand for pilots in China is estimated to be 77,000 over the next 20 years. New development programs in General and Commercial are targeted to expand market share and generate new sales, TenCate works on an increasing number of development projects with aircraft OEMs in China. There are a number of domestic aircraft programs running in China and currently these programs make limited use of composite material. The next generation aircrafts will however use more and more composites and volumes in the domestic aerospace market will grow rapidly when these aircrafts come to market. One promising new program is Comac s widebody aircraft, dubbed C929, for which currently material selection is underway. TenCate is participating in this with our Thermoplastic composites.

4 Urbanization and Mobility Royal TenCate Due to mass-urbanization China s urban population will reach close to 1 billion people through Heavy polluted cities and traffic congestions directly impact the living quality and there is a dire need for smarter use of resources. In mobility this means that vehicles need cleaner engines and the means to optimize the use of these engines to minimize the CO2 emissions at TenCate we believe for vehicle fitness weight reduction is an important part of the answer. New Energy Vehicles As early as 2001 China has started national electric vehicles development projects (so-called 863- projects ), the 12 th five year plan included new energy vehicles as one of the seven priority industries with an aim to have 500,000 electric vehicles by Whereas China is far off reaching this target, government investment policy and a range of subsidies and tax incentives to increase demand for electric and hybrid vehicles are starting to pay off, sales are expected to reach 50,000 units in The government also set a minimum share of electric vehicles in the fleets of public institutions and government bodies; 15% of all new vehicle procurement by government bodies in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta should use electric or hybrid technology, this share would increase to 30% by BMW recently reported that China will be the biggest electric car market by Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers have put a strong focus on the development of battery technologies, further development of lightweight solutions are needed to optimize the use of electric batteries. As we have seen the China composites industry has developed rapidly with building blocks in place for further development of applications, these developments are well underway with glass and carbon fiber composites being used for body parts and interior. Nevertheless, there is a clear need for new materials, process control and product & process design to enable high-speed low cost manufacturing. For several years TenCate has been working with partners to develop Thermoplastic composites solutions for automotive; our materials, expertise and understanding of composite design and manufacturing technology are key competitive advantages. TenCate Thermoplastics are well positioned to drive this change towards lightweight sustainable mobility. 3: TenCate Advanced Composites positioning for future growth China Composites market: a Fast Pull TenCate Advanced Composites expansion into the Chinese market can be described as what our CEO Mr. de Vries calls a fast pull. As demand develops due to leap frog technological advancements, products and technology are pulled into the fast developing market. Initially TenCate will redeploy its product base in China, leveraging its existing product portfolio. Specific needs and requirements in the market may then call for modification or localization of our product portfolio. The final step may involve development of unique products entirely, this requires deep understanding of market needs which this can only be achieved when participating actively in the market. Successful redeployment of our product portfolio will be based on value chain management. The main focus for TenCate in China will be to cooperate directly with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the processing industry to develop applications in the various end-markets.

5 End-user Marketing Royal TenCate A good example of how TenCate cooperates with stakeholders in the value chain to promote solutions to end-users is D²Dragon. Together with the Dutch government, knowledge institutions and Dutch aerospace companies, D²Dragon aims promote Dutch Aerospace aircraft integration knowhow, capability and infrastructure to target customer COMAC. TenCate Cetex Thermoplastics will be main material used in proposed demonstrator projects. TenCate is the world leader in thermoplastic composites. As these composites are not yet widely introduced into the Chinese composites market, we expect good growth opportunities in our target markets in China. TenCate targets to become key material supplier to Comac, we intend to work directly with Comac but also with local innovation networks aimed at application development. Technological Innovation (TAPAS, etac) As mentioned earlier, thermoset composites form the mainstream in China and most of manufacturing facilities are built around this technology. However, there is a high level of interest in China to develop applications with thermoplastic composites. Next to renewed investment in thermoplastics equipment, the challenge for the industry is to develop manufacturing techniques, product- and process design and process control knowledge. This is where innovation networks can play an important role; these networks typically include knowledge institutes, industrial companies and OEMs and are often co-funded by governments. In aerospace, the Thermoplastics Affordable Primary Aircraft Structure Consortium (TAPAS) is a successful closed-open innovation network where Dutch aerospace companies and work closely with Airbus to develop technology for future Airbus-developed applications, including primary structural components as fuselage and wings. In automotive TenCate is founding partner of etac, the European Thermoplastic Automotive Composites consortium. TenCate is open for similar development partnerships with Chinese institutions, with a focus on application development. Cost leadership Heavy import duties and generally lower price levels in China are a challenge to TenCate s cost leadership strategy. Therefore the development of a local product portfolio and local manufacturing need to be considered in our China strategy. Due to its position in the value chain TenCate is well positioned to partner with local fiber producers and chemical companies to develop local products to complement its already strong offer with a low cost alternatives. Fiber and resin suppliers are actively looking to build new markets for their products, of interest are large chemical corporations with wellestablished networks within target industries, such as automotive and oil & gas. Partner networks and sales channels are vital when going to market, especially in industries that are dominated by state owned enterprises. Product Differentiation Due to the diversity in technologies TenCate applies, it has the opportunity to converge technologies to create new applications. A good example of where such convergence is taking place is the decoration of thermoplastic composites. Using digital inkjet printing technology, TenCate has developed a method to

6 decorate thermoplastic composites using sublimation printing technique to embed an image or pattern into the resin to form a long lasting, scratch resistant decorated surface. This is a promising application will allow for mass customization of aircraft and automotive interiors. 4. Conclusion Advanced materials play a significant role in the development of low carbon solutions for new energy, new energy vehicles and aerospace. Beijing has made it clear that development of industries support Beijing s long-term goals of sustainable growth, environmental protection, and energy efficiency. Although the composites market in China has developed rapidly over the past decade, it is still in early phases of development. TenCate has an opportunity to make use of its competitive advantages and leverage its strong position in the composites market. Success however is directly related to the level of China-readiness, which involves extensive local market participation through innovation networks and partnerships. With a companywide focus on composites and safety and sustainability, TenCate is well positioned to become a major player in China s composite industry; the time to invest is now. Thank you for your attention.