Global Real Estate Outlook

Transcription

1 Global Real Estate Outlook August 2014

2 The Hierarchy of Economic Performance, China Indonesia India Poland South Korea Turkey Australia Mexico United Kingdom Sweden United States Canada South Africa Germany Spain Brazil Japan Russia France Italy Americas EMEA Asia Pacific % pa GDP Change Source: Oxford Economics, July 2014

3 Property Clocks 3

4 Prime Offices City Capital Value Clock The Jones Lang LaSalle Property Clocks SM Hong Kong Sydney Toronto Boston, Chicago New York, Los Angeles, Stockholm San Francisco, Houston, Berlin Mexico City, Frankfurt Moscow Dallas, Singapore London Capital Value growth slowing Capital Value growth accelerating Q ` Toronto, Mexico City Washington DC, Amsterdam Moscow Sao Paulo, Paris Sydney, Singapore Berlin Shanghai New York, Los Angeles Boston, Chicago San Francisco Houston, Frankfurt Dallas Capital Values falling Capital Values bottoming out London Milan Seoul Beijing Tokyo Stockholm Capital Value growth slowing Capital Value growth accelerating Q Hong Kong Washington DC Capital Values falling Capital Values bottoming out Sao Paulo Seoul, Tokyo Mumbai Brussels Shanghai Madrid Mumbai, Beijing Brussels Madrid Amsterdam Paris Milan Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Based on notional capital values for Grade A space in CBD or equivalent.

5 Prime Offices City Rental Clock The Jones Lang LaSalle Property Clocks SM Stockholm Berlin, Moscow Houston San Francisco Toronto Amsterdam Rental Value growth slowing Mexico City Rental Value Dallas, Frankfurt growth accelerating London Mumbai, Boston Tokyo New York Istanbul, Dubai Los Angeles, Seoul, Shanghai Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Q Chicago Hong Kong Singapore Brussels Rental Values falling Rental Values bottoming out Sao Paulo Paris Johannesburg Milan Based on rents for Grade A space in CBD or equivalent. US positions relate to the overall market Mexico City Moscow Shanghai Berlin Frankfurt Houston San Francisco Dallas Rental Value growth slowing Beijing London New York, Stockholm Tokyo Sydney Boston Los Angeles, Mumbai Washington DC Singapore Istanbul, Beijing Madrid Chicago, Dubai Seoul Rental Value growth accelerating Q Washington DC Madrid, Milan Paris, Brussels Hong Kong Sydney Amsterdam Toronto Johannesburg Rental Values falling Rental Values bottoming out Sao Paulo 5

6 Global Office Property Clock Q The JLL Property Clocks SM Amsterdam Mexico City Moscow Shanghai Berlin Frankfurt Toronto Johannesburg Americas Asia Pacific EMEA San Francisco, Houston Dallas Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Sao Paulo London Stockholm, Tokyo, New York Boston Los Angeles, Delhi, Mumbai Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Warsaw Singapore Istanbul, Beijing Dubai, Chicago, Seoul Hong Kong Prague Brussels, Madrid, Paris CBD, Milan, Sydney, Washington DC Source: JLL, July 2014 Based on rents for Grade A space in CBD or equivalent. This data is based on material/sources that we believe to be reliable. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. Neither Jones Lang LaSalle nor any of its affiliates accept any liability or responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein

7 Prime Retail Rental Clock, Q Moscow Paris, Hong Kong, Singapore Berlin, Beijing Americas EMEA Asia Pacific London Rental Value growth slowing Rental Values falling Tokyo Miami Dubai, Mumbai, San Francisco, Houston Delhi Rental Value growth accelerating Rental Values bottoming out New York, Boston, Washington DC Shanghai Madrid, Milan, Los Angeles Chicago Sydney US positions relate to the overall market Source: JLL, July

8 Prime Industrial Rental Clock, Q Singapore Frankfurt Dallas, Shanghai Los Angeles Tokyo, Philadelphia Chicago, New York, San Francisco London Atlanta, Houston Rental Value growth slowing Rental Value growth accelerating Rental Values falling Rental Values bottoming out Boston Beijing, Hong Kong Amsterdam, Paris, Madrid Warsaw Sydney Americas EMEA Asia Pacific US positions relate to the overall market Source: JLL, July

9 Market Performance 9

10 Prime Offices Rental Change, Q Q Singapore Mexico City San Francisco Dubai London Boston Tokyo Los Angeles Toronto Chicago Shanghai New York Frankfurt Stockholm Sydney Madrid Hong Kong Beijing Mumbai Brussels Washington DC Seoul Paris Moscow Sao Paulo Americas EMEA Asia Pacific % change Based on rents for Grade A space in CBD or equivalent. In local currency. Source: JLL, July

11 Prime Offices Capital Value Change, Q Q San Francisco Dubai Boston Madrid New York Chicago Stockholm London Tokyo Los Angeles Sydney Paris Mexico City Washington DC Shanghai Frankfurt Seoul Singapore Toronto Brussels Hong Kong Mumbai Beijing Sao Paulo Moscow Americas EMEA Asia Pacific % change Notional capital values based on rents and yields for Grade A space in CBD or equivalent. In local currency. Source: JLL, July

12 Rental Growth for Prime Office Assets % Rental change (y-o-y %) % 4.2% % 1.5% Prime Office Rental Growth, Unweighted average of 25 major markets. Source: JLL, July

13 Prime Offices Yield Shift, Q Q

14 Prime Offices Annual Capital Value Change 25 Major Office Locations 14

15 Prime Office Yields,

16 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Prime Office Yields - Global Cities Source: JLL, July 2014

17 Prime Offices Projected Change in Values, % % + 0-5% - 0-5% Singapore Rental Values Dubai, London*, Tokyo Beijing, San Francisco, New York* Boston, Mexico City Stockholm, Hong Kong, Seoul Paris*, Sydney, Frankfurt Chicago, Los Angeles, Toronto, Washington DC Shanghai, Madrid, Brussels, Mumbai Moscow Capital Values Tokyo, Boston, Chicago Madrid, New York*, Los Angeles San Francisco, Mexico City Dubai, London* Seoul, Sydney, Beijing Frankfurt, Singapore Stockholm, Paris*, Toronto Washington DC, Shanghai, Mumbai Brussels, Hong Kong % Sao Paulo Moscow, Sao Paulo *New York Midtown, London West End, Paris - CBD. Nominal rates in local currency. Source: JLL, July 2014

18 Supply-Demand Balance 18

19 Office Leasing Volumes, U.S. Europe Asia Pacific Global FY % -5% -11% +1% FY % ~ 5% 15-20% ~ 5%. Source: JLL, July

20 Corporate occupier demand strengthening 2014 Projections of Gross Leasing Volumes U.S. +0-5% Highest net absorption of current recovery cycle Europe +5% London and Paris lead recovery in Europe Asia Pacific % Gross leasing volumes rebounding Leasing volujme. Source: JLL, July 2014 but demand remains patchy and recovery in leasing volumes weaker than in previous cycles 20

21 Global Office Demand Net Absorption Trends,

22 Office Vacancy Rates - Major Markets, Q Global 13.1% % 25 Americas 15.5% Europe 9.7% Asia Pacific 11.5% Quarterly movement Increased Decreased 0 Stable Toronto New York San Francisco Mexico City Los Angeles Washington DC Chicago Boston Sao Paolo London Paris Stockholm Brussels Frankfurt Madrid Moscow Tokyo CBD Beijing Hong Kong Singapore Seoul Sydney Shanghai Mumbai Regional vacancy rates based on 49 markets in the Americas, 24 markets in Europe and 24 markets in Asia Pacific. Covers all office sub-markets in each city. All grades except Asia and Latin America (Grade A only). Tokyo relates to CBD 5 kus. Source: JLL, July

23 Office Supply Pipeline - Major Markets,

24 Global Office Development Completions,

25 Global Office Market Conditions Matrix*, Market Market Market MARKET Chicago Brussels Beijing Los Angeles Frankfurt Hong Kong New York London West End Mumbai San Francisco Madrid Shanghai (Pudong) Toronto Moscow Singapore Washington DC Paris Sydney Mexico City Stockholm Tokyo Sao Paulo Dubai Tenant Favourable Neutral Market Landlord Favourable * Relates to conditions in the overall office market of a city. Conditions for prime CBD space may differ from the above. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, July 2014

26 Investment Activity 26

27 Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment Quarterly 27

28 Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment - Largest Markets $US Billions Q1 14 Q2 14 % change Q1 14-Q2 14 Q2 13 % change Q2 13-Q2 14 H H % change H H USA % % % UK % % % France % % % Germany % % % Japan % % % Australia % 7.3 7% % China % % % Mexico % % % Sweden % % % Brazil % % % South Korea % % % Canada % % % Netherlands % % % Singapore % % % Norway % % % Hong Kong % % % Spain % % % Belgium % % % Italy % % % Ireland % % % Thailand % % % Source: JLL, Julyl

29 Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment Top 20 Cities, H

30 Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment Regional Trends $US Billions Q1 14 Q2 14 % change Q1 14-Q2 14 Q2 13 % change Q2 13-Q2 14 H H % change H H Americas % 52 30% % EMEA % 40 49% % Asia Pacific % 32-2% % TOTAL % % % Source: JLL, July

31 Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment,

32 Global Office Index 32

33 Global Office Index - Prime Rents,

34 Global Office Index Prime Rents,

35 Global Office Index Prime Rents Top 10 Global Performers during Q (quarter-on-quarter)

36 Global Office Index Prime Rents Top 10 Global Performers year to Q (year-on-year)

37 Hotels 37

38 Global Hotel Investment, Billions US$ F Source: JLL, July

39 U.S. Hotels CMBS Issuance

40 Contact Jeremy Kelly Global Research Tel: jeremy.kelly@eu.jll.com This presentation is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them. Jones Lang LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication. 40