Trends in Aviation & Impact on MROs. Khwaja M. (KM) Ali Director, Maintenance Economics

Transcription

1 Trends in Aviation & Impact on MROs Khwaja M. (KM) Ali Director, Maintenance Economics 7 th Maintenance Cost Conference Singapore, October 19-21, 2011

2 Seven Trends Are Shaping The Long-Term Structure Of The Air Transport MRO Industry All inventory: airplane, hanagr and mechanics, more utilization Mechanic on Call Skills harmonization 7 Increased Asset utilization 1 Market growthshift to Asia While MRO global market is expanding, growth is at much faster pace in Asia and India MRO opportunities 2 Increased Outsourcing Airframe OEMs becoming MRO integrators(boeing Goldcare, Airbus FHS/TSP,) New channels to market for some 6 Increased Leased Aircraft 3 Focus on Cost Reduction Return conditions require more work Transparency 5 Newer Generation Aircraft Less Time in Hangar 2 4 Fuel Burn Reduction Fleet replacement MRO activity and modification for fuel burn reduction New OEM-MRO relations Pressure from airlines to improve cost, structure and performance of supply chain IT KPIs System Transparency & Integration

3 1. Worldwide MRO market size growing: 3.8% Worldwide MRO Spend 10-Year Forecast 70 $64.39 Total CAGR* = 3.8% % World MRO Spend (US $, Billions) $ % Modifications Line Engine Component Airframe Heavy Mx 5.3% 3.8% MRO 3 Market size is increasing worldwide, but growth in Asia is double -0.1% *CAGR: Compunded Annual Growth Rate Data Source: Aerostrategy/OAG

4 Asia MRO market increasing at double the world rate Asia MRO Spend 10-Year Forecast 30 Asia MRO Spend (US $, Billions) $13.28 $24.83 Total CAGR* = 7.2% 14.2% 9.7% India Middle East China Asia Pacific 9.2% 4.3% Asia 4 MRO Market size increasing 7.2% annually, but growth in India is double *CAGR: Compunded Annual Growth Rate Data Source: AeroStrategy/OAG

5 India MRO market will triple in the next 10 yearsfrom $560 million to $1.8 billion India MRO Spend 10-Year Forecast (US $ Millions) 2,000 1,800 $1, Total CAGR* = 14.2% 19.7% India MRO Spend (US $, Millions) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, $ % 19.2% Modifications Line Engine Component Airframe Heavy Mx 10.2% % *CAGR: Compunded Annual Growth Rate India MRO Market size growth expected to be 14.2% per annum, double that of Asia Data Source: AeroStrategy/OAG

6 2. Increasing Longterm Outsourcing : ~53% Outsourcing is one of the ways to cut costs 6 Source: IATA MCTF 2011 Maintenance Cost Report

7 Outsourcing Will Increase Over the Decade The available market grows to about $65b by 2020 at 3.8% CAGR MRO Supply Structure by Market ($B) $24 $ In-House $ % Outsourced $12 $8 78% 85% 7 $4 $0 75% 25% 12% 53% Engine Line Component Airframe Heavy 70% Source: Aerostrategy / OAG Back * Excluded Modifications

8 MRO Market is shifting towards Asia Rapid growth of fleets in Asia and India Increasing Outsourcing - Increasing focus on cost controls in aviation. Efficient MRO and integrated services providers Lower Labor Cost India MRO market growth is at 14.2% annually (CAGR) and expected to triple to $1.9 billion per year by Outsourced work from ME, Europe and Americas will clearly outpace organic growth

9 Outsourcing Trends: Key things to observe Line Maintenance outsourcing is limited strategic decision, to control delays and airline image Engine and Component repair and overhaul will be largely outsourced 80-90% Heavy and Base Maintenance work will move to efficient and low labor cost areas Asia is one 9 MRO market size is expected double in Asia if outsourced work potential from ME, Europe and Americas is tapped

10 3. Operating Economics -- increasing focus Airlines are focusing on future Reducing Costs in all areas What does it cost to deliver a safe airplane and on-time 10

11 Airlines are focusing on the future Cost & networks Enter new markets Mergers, acquisitions & partnerships Differentiated value proposition Fleet Revenue Direct flight Passenger experience Ancillary revenues Cost Fuel, maintenance Training Technology & automation Older airplanes retired Fleets simplified Standardization 11

12 E&M Information systems more sophisticated, more mobile Efficient Information systems allow for easy and timely data analysis 20% of airlines have mobile user systems PDAs, ipads etc and others are considering (Source: SITA IT Survey, 2010) Accelerated switchover to enterprise MRO IT systems legacy systems are being dumped 12

13 4. Increasing Fuel Prices 120 World Passenger Traffic Grows with GDP So do fuel prices Airline profits impacted 100 $96/Barrel Forecast $100/Barrel 2011 Actual Average Oil Price _ Brent ($/Barrel) Oct 20 $88/Barrel Singapore Crude Oil Price 20 Source: IATA Financial Forecast, March 2011 Singapore Jet Fuel Price: Bloomberg F 13

14 Fuel Cost adds immense pressure on bottom line Airline Profit and Fuel Price Relationship Airline Profit/Loss ($ Billions) Airline Profit/Loss F 2011F 2011F Crude Oil Price Source: IATA Financial Forecast, March 2011 Increased focus on Lower Fuel Consumption Current Average $100/Bbl $96/Barrel $100/bbl $120bbl Crude Oil Price- Brent ($/Barrel)

15 Maintenance for Fuel Consumption Reduction Engine washes Big MRO Opportunity Aerodynamic cleanliness Weight reduction Winglets & Modifications Limited APU use Operating at slower speeds Use Cost Index Fuel tankering Air traffic management Single Engine taxi Aging Fleet replacement 3-4% Fuel cost savings are possible 15 MRO work in fuel conservation will grow

16 5. Less time on the ground, more time in revenue service Longer intervals between routine checks Fewer tasks to accomplish within those checks Less unscheduled maintenance /A330 /A340 Line 1,000 FH 1000 FH 750 FH Base 12,000FH 36 mo 37 mo 6,000 FH 18 mo Heavy 12 yr 8 yr 6 yr Landing Gear 12 yr 10yr 10yr More pressure for MRO Efficiency 16

17 Newer generation airplanes cost less to maintain 0.20 Airframe Maintenance Cost per Seat Relative position of all airplanes reflects generation of EIS ER A A US Cents/ASM ER ER s 1990s Technology Improvements Source: - Boeing MaintCost2 Model (U.S. Domestic Rule) - Dual-Class configuration - Common Flight Time = 6.00 # of Seat 2010s

18 787 Designed for Lower Operating Cost and 30% lower airframe maintenance cost Low Fuel Burn Mixed Fleet Flying 18 Low Fees Standard Airplane Low Maintenance Cost Services Plan

19 What does new technology mean for airlines and MRO Composites repair facilities and composites expertise at base maintenance Move away from skill based training to common trade Effective IT Systems Growth in IFE, installation, refurbish and maintenance MRO work Stronger Maintenance Control Centers Less airplane in hangar faster hangar turn times 19 (787-8) Additional Day in service means $65,000 profit opportunity

20 6. The Leasing Market Continues to Grow. Lease demand is expected to grow from 36% today, to 50% by 2020 driven by increasing demand from airlines Leasing continue to evolve Realigning ownership and capitalization strategies (raised over $16B in 2010) More fragmentation / niche players Emerging new entrants ,722 Aircraft Operating Leases Are Playing a Larger Role ,037 Aircraft World Airline Fleet: 1970 to 2009* Forecast ,161 Aircraft ,033 Aircraft ,341 Aircraft 2020 Forecast Increased quantity of airplanes coming offlease and will require to fulfill lease return conditions (C-Checks, paintings and reconfiguration etc). Cross border movement of leases adds registration, records and administrative costs 17 Leased (.5%) 96 Leased (1.6%) 1,076 Leased (11.7%) 3,644 Leased (24.2%) 7,621 Leased (35.7%) 45% - 50% Leased By 2020 Lessors will control 50% of the worlds fleet Increasing Leased Airplanes Increased industry cost for compliance with return conditions and regulatory process 20

21 Global Share of Lease Market 29% 19% 50% 34% 39% 27% 55% 20% 49% 28% 37% 36% 38% 12% 43% 47% 25% 35% Single Aisle Twin Aisle 44% 24% 21 12/31/2010 (Ascend) All In-service/stored Jet Airplanes in Airline Operation

22 Lease return conditions will require more maintenance and more records validation 22 Premature inspection (usually C-Check as a return condition) Duplication of inspections Duplication of registrations Individual certificates: Maintenance checks Source: Aviation Working Group: Dissimilar Technical Regulatory Requirement. Economic Impact Assessment January 2011 Recertification of components Inspection of aircraft Export/import process Test flight requirements Impact: Increasing MRO work - $263,000 per transfer

23 7. Mechanic-on-call increasing trend on single aisle airplanes 80% of Flights (Single Aisle) have no reported defects Airlines increasingly implementing a system of mechanic-on-call Almost fully in practice in USA and Western Europe Being adapted slowly in other countries 23 30% Line labor saving estimated

24 Number of landings with no Defects Single Aisle 737Classic 50% 737Classic 40% 155,357 landings with defects(100%) No Defects 375,116 71% With Defects 155,357 29% Landings 30% 20% 10% 2% Total 530,473 landings Aug31,2005-July31,2006, 7 Airlines (Europe/North America/Asia/Oceania) 737NG 0% 50% 40% Number of Defects per Landing 737NG 149,660 landings with defects(100%) No Defects 686,445 82% With Defects 149,660 18% Landings 30% 20% 10% 1% 24 0% Total 836,105 landings >16 Aug31,2005-July31,2006, 8 Airlines (Europe/North America/Asia/Oceania) Number of Defects per Landing ~80% of Landings No Defects

25 Summary Aviation MRO Opportunities Fast growth in MRO size in Asia and India 7.2% and 14.2% growth Outsourced work from Europe, America and Middle East has big potential for being sourced to Asia infrastructure and marketing is lacking Fuel Burn reduction is potential MRO growth area IFE installation, refurbishment and maintenance huge opportunity Mechanics Licensing System needs to harmonized with international (EASA and FAA etc) systems for efficiency and transnational work movement Mechanics training systems and courses need to be harmonized - Training Enterprise MRO IT systems need to be deployed for effective control of costs production control and records and to use next generation airplane health monitoring systems 25