Economic Data. November 06, November 05, 2015

Transcription

1 Economic Data November 05, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BOJ Minutes for Oct. 6-7 Meeting CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Oct EUR German Factory Orders M/M Sep -1.70% 1.00% -1.80% CHF CPI M/M Oct 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% CHF CPI Y/Y Oct -1.40% -1.40% -1.40% EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin EUR Eurozone Retail PMI Oct EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep -0.10% 0.20% 0.00% EUR European Commission Economic Forecasts GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 375b 375b 375b GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes GBP BoE Quarterly Inflation Report USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Oct -1.30% 93.20% USD Initial Jobless Claims 276K 262k 260k USD Non-Farm Productivity Q3 P 1.60% 0.50% 3.30% USD Unit Labor Costs Q3 P 1.40% 2.00% -1.40% CAD Ivey PMI Oct USD Natural Gas Storage 52B 60B 63B Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY Leading Index Sep P EUR German Industrial Production M/M Sep 0.50% -1.20% CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Oct 541.5b GBP Industrial Production M/M Sep -0.10% 1.00% GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Sep 1.30% 1.90% GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Sep 0.50% 0.50% GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Sep -0.70% -0.80% GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Sep -10.7B -11.1B USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Oct 180k 142k USD Unemployment Rate Oct 5.10% 5.10% USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Oct 0.20% 0.00% CAD Building Permits M/M Sep 0.50% -3.70% CAD Change in Employment Oct -2.5k 12.1k CAD Unemployment Rate Oct 7.10% 7.10% GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Oct 0.50% 1

2 Gold Recap Comex Gold NOV DEC JAN FEB APR Spread DEC5 JAN6 FEB6 APR6 NOV DEC JAN FEB6-0.7 DGCX % Vol. Volume Gold DEC FEB Spread FEB6 DEC5-0.8 MCX % Vol. Volume Gold DEC FEB APR JUN Change = 136 Spread FEB6 APR6 JUN6 DEC FEB APR

3 Silver Recap Comex Silver NOV DEC JAN MAR MAY Spread DEC5 JAN6 MAR6 MAY6 NOV DEC JAN MAR DGCX % Vol. Volume Silver DEC MCX % Vol. Volume Silver DEC MAR MAY Change = -1 Spread MAR6 MAY6 DEC MAR

4 Gold prices ended the U.S. day session slightly lower and fell to a seven-week low Thursday. Traders and investors are awaiting Friday s U.S. employment report from the Labor Department, which is arguably the most important data point of the week. The marketplace on Thursday was still digesting some more hawkish Fed speak, as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday told U.S. lawmakers that a U.S. interest rate hike in December is a live possibility. December silver futures prices closed near mid-range and hit another four-week low on Thursday. In overnight news, the European Union said Euro zone economic growth in 2015 will be 1.6% versus a forecast of up 1.5% last spring. Inflation in the Euro zone is forecast at up 0.1% in 2015, which is unchanged from the spring forecast. SPDR Gold Trust said its holdings fell 1.23% to MT on Thursday from MT on Wednesday. In terms of ounces, holdings fell to 21,598, ounces from 21,866, ounces. Holdings of ishares Silver Trust remained unchanged during the same period. The Euro rose moderately against the Dollar on Thursday one day after crashing to three-month low, as traders look ahead to Friday's key U.S. jobs report for hints on whether the Federal Open Market Committee could hike interest rates before the end of The Dollar Index remained near three-month highs against the other major currencies on Thursday, as hopes for a December rate hike in the U.S. continued to support the greenback and investors awaited the release of U.S. jobs data on Friday. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending October 31 increased by 16,000 to 276,000 from the previous week s total of 260,000. Investors now await the key payrolls data due today. COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total MT in Trust: MT: No change from yesterday s data. Silver Trust (SLV) Total MT in Trust: 9, MT: No change from yesterday s data. Indian Gold ended with gains, while Silver prices remained range bound on Thursday. Rupee depreciated on Thursday and limited downside in metal prices. Gold spot rate in India was quoted at Rs. 26,250/10 Grams for 24 carat purity, down by 160, while Silver spot rate was quoted at Rs. 35,820/Kg, down by 465 from previous close. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday launched three programmes aimed at reducing physical gold demand and luring tonnes of gold from households into the banking system. The three schemes that Modi launched are Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS), Gold Sovereign Bond Scheme and the Gold Coin and Bullion Scheme. Modi also unveiled the first ever national gold coin minted in India with the national emblem of Ashok Chakra engraved on it. The Gold Monetisation Scheme will replace the existing Gold Deposit Scheme, However, deposits outstanding under the Gold Deposit Scheme will be allowed to run till maturity unless the depositors prematurely withdraw them. The Gold Sovereign Bond will be issued by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on behalf of the government with an interest rate of 2.75%. The bonds will be sold through banks and designated post offices. 4

5 Exchange deliverable stock position of Gold and Silver at MCX approved warehouses Commodity 4-Nov-15 5-Nov-15 Gold Silver 12,149 12,149 Quantity Delivered in Kgs in November 2015 on MCX platform Commodity Total Gold 577 Silver - LBMA Gold AM and PM Fix Date AM PM 05-Nov Nov Commitment of Traders - 10/20/ /27/2015 Non-Commercial Commercial Non-Reportable Weekly Weekly Weekly Position Position Position Change Change Change Gold Futures 157,434 6, ,848-2,548 8,414-3,585 and Options 162, ,480 3,472 8,752-3,400 and Options - Disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN Silver Futures 62,445 5,147-69,373-2,573 6, and Options 57,902 6,736-64,987-4,300 7, and Options - Disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 5

6 COMEX Gold December (1109.2) MCX Gold December (25822) Trade Recommendations None. OUTLOOK Comex Gold could remain under pressure. Firm Dollar could continue drive prices lower. Investors will await payrolls data today for further cues. Key intraday support is at A close below could pull prices to 1075 levels. Resistance is at A close above could push prices to 1120 levels. MCX Gold could also remain range bound to weak, tracking weak overseas prices. Key intraday support is at A close below could pull prices to levels. Key intraday resistance is at

7 COMEX Silver December (15.00) MCX Silver December (35431) Trade Recommendations None. OUTLOOK Comex Silver could continue range bound to weak. Key intraday support is at A close below could pull prices to Key intraday resistance is at MCX Silver could trade range bound to weak, tracking weak overseas prices. Key intraday support is at Key intraday resistance is at

8 MCX Forward Curve MCX and INR futures Correlation The 60-day correlation chart shows that the correlation between MCX Gold December and NSE INR December is -5%. 8

9 Gold Silver Ratio The Gold Silver ratio rose Wednesday. The ratio still remains in a small range and either side breakouts could give us further cues. DISCLAIMER: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of ADMISI Commodities Private Limited. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), ADM Investor Services International Limited (U.K) nor ADMISI Commodities Private Limited, nor any person/entity connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a commodity s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without ADMISI Commodities Private Limited prior written consent. 9