Daily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014

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1 Australia FX Pick:AUD/USD Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of levels. AUD/USD s short-term support is at , and resistance is at Currency This Week Comment AUD/USD Australia Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of levels. AUD/USD s short-term support is at , and resistance is at EUR/USD EUR/USD was hovering in a range of levels. The market is waiting for the release of Germany retail sales data. EUR/USD s short-term resistance is at , and support is at 43. GBP/USD UK Dec house price index rose 7.2% YoY, lower than last month. GBP/USD once dropped to level. GBP/USD s short-term resistance is at , and support is at NZD/USD NEUTRAL NZD was supported by lowered US bond yields. NZD/USD once rose to level. NZD/USD's short-term support level is at and resistance is at USD/RMB USD/CAD BULLISH China Nov leading index arrived at 99.17, lower than last month. USD/CNH once rose to level. USD/CNH's short-term support is at 6.17, and the resistance level remains at USD/CAD once rose to as oil prices continued to fall. The market is waiting for Friday s manufacturing PMI data. USD/CAD's support level is at 1.15 and resistance level is at USD/JPY JPY was supported by pre-holiday s profit taking positions. USD/JPY once retraced to level. USD/JPY's short-term support level is at and resistance at 122. USD/CHF BULLISH USD/SGD BULLISH USD/SGD was hovering in a range of The market is waiting for Friday s GDP data. AUD Australia Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of levels. AUD/USD s short-term support is at , and resistance is at Dec vs SGD vs USD Daily change: 0.52% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (~) RBA kept its interest rate unchanged in Dec at 2.5%, in line with market expectation (~) Australia Q3 CPI rose 2.3% YoY, as expected, in line with market expectation (+) Australia employment increased by 42.7k in Nov, better than market expectation (-) Australia Q3 GDP rose 2.7% YoY, worse than market expectation AUD/SGD 6-month

2 EUR EUR/USD was hovering in a range of levels. The market is waiting for the release of Germany retail sales data. EUR/USD s short-term resistance is at , and support is at Dec vs SGD vs USD Daily change: -0.06% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (+) Eurozone 3Q GDP (Seasonally Adjusted) rose 0.2% QoQ, better than expected (~) Eurozone Nov CPI final reading came in at 0.3% YoY, in line with market expectation (+) Germany Nov unemployment rate arrived at 6.6%, better than expected (+) Eurozone Dec manufacturing PMI arrived at 50.8, better than expected GBP EUR/SGD 6-month UK Dec house price index rose 7.2% YoY, lower than last month. GBP/USD once dropped to level. GBP/USD s short-term resistance is at , and support is at Dec vs SGD vs USD Daily change: 0.18% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (-) UK Q3 GDP rose 2.6% YoY, worse than expectation (-) UK Nov CPI rose 1% YoY, worse than expectation (~) Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged in Dec (-) UK Oct 3-month unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6%, worse than market expectations GBP/SGD 6-month NZD NEUTRAL NZD was supported by lowered US bond yields. NZD/USD once rose to level. NZD/USD's shortterm support level is at and resistance is at Dec vs SGD vs USD Daily change: 0.41% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (~) RBNZ kept interest rate unchanged at 3.5% in Dec (- ) New Zealand Q3 CPI rose 1% YoY, below market expectations (-) New Zealand Oct trade deficit was NZD 908 million, worse than expected (+) New Zealand Q3 GDP(S.A) rose 1% QoQ, better than expected NZD/SGD 6-month 0.90

3 RMB China Nov leading index arrived at 99.17, lower than last month. USD/CNH once rose to level. USD/CNH's short-term support is at 6.17, and the resistance level remains at Dec vs SGD vs USD Daily change: 0.24% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (-) China Nov industrial production rose 7.2% YoY, lower than expected (-) HSBC China Manufacturing PMI flash reading for Dec arrived at 49.5, worse than expected (+) China Q3 GDP rose 7.3% YoY, higher than expected (+) China Nov exports rose 4.7% YoY, better than expected CAD RMB/SGD 6-month USD/CAD once rose to as oil prices continued to fall. The market is waiting for Friday s manufacturing PMI data. USD/CAD's support level is at 1.15 and resistance level is at Dec vs SGD vs USD Daily change: 0.10% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (+) Canada Q3 annualised GDP rose 2.3%, better than expected (-) Canada Nov CPI rose 2% YoY, lower than market expectation (~) Canada Nov unemployment rate was 6.6%, in line with market expectation (+) Canada Oct retail sales held steady MoM, better than expected 1.15 CAD/SGD 6-month 1.05 JPY JPY was supported by pre-holiday s profit taking positions. USD/JPY once retraced to level. USD/JPY's short-term support level is at and resistance at Dec vs SGD 60 vs USD Daily change: 0.89% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (+) Japan Dec Manufacturing PMI flash reading arrived at 52.1, better than last month (~) Japan Nov nationwide CPI ex fresh food (VAT included) arrived at 2.7% YoY, in line with market expectation (-) Japan Nov industrial production dropped 0.6% MoM, worse than market expectation (-) Japan Q3 annualised GDP fell by 1.9%, worse than market expectation 1.40 JPY/SGD 6-month

4 CHF 31-Dec vs SGD vs USD Daily change: -0.04% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD 21 (~) Switzerland Nov CPI fell 0.1% YoY, in line with market expectation (+) Switzerland Oct trade balance at 3.26B, higher than market expectation (-) SNB lowered interest rate to -0.25% in Dec, out of market expectation (~) Switzerland Oct unemployment rate at 3.1%, in line with market expectation CHF/SGD 6-month SGD USD/SGD was hovering in a range of The market is waiting for Friday s GDP data. 31-Dec vs USD Daily change: -0.11% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (-) Singapore Q3 unemployment rate arrived at 2% YoY, worse than expected (-) Singapore Nov industrail production dropped 2.8% YoY, worse than expected (+) Singapore Oct retail sales rose 8.1% YoY, better than market expectation (+) Singapore Q3 GDP final read up 2.8% YoY, better than market expectation USD/SGD 6-month

5 HSBC forecasts 5-Dec-14 Current rate Q Q Q Q Q North America US Canada Asia-pacific Japan Australia New Zealand Western Europe EMU UK *Support Levels are normally defined as where market participants see good value and start to push prices higher again. *Resistance Levels are normally regarded as a ceiling, as the price levels prevent the market from moving prices upward. Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided. Customer should not rely on the views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person s reliance upon this information. Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance. ^ Time deposit rates are for reference only and quoted as of RMB and exchange rate offers are available at any HSBC branches and through 24-hour manned phonebanking services only. Terms and Conditions apply. Risk Disclosure: Currency conversion risk the value of your RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favorable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. RMB is currently not freely convertible and subject to regulatory restrictions. This document is issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC). The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but which we have not independently verified. HSBC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any nature nor is any responsibility of any kind accepted with respect to the completeness or accuracy of any information, projection, representation or warranty (expressed or implied) in, or omission from, this document. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this document. Any examples given are for the purposes of illustration only. The opinions in this document constitute our present judgement, which is subject to change without notice. The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. Copyright. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited.