FOREX WEEKLY REPORT. 22 April - 28 April Dieter Merz, Chief Investment Officer. Luciano Jannelli, Ph.D. Chief Economist

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "FOREX WEEKLY REPORT. 22 April - 28 April 2013. Dieter Merz, Chief Investment Officer. Luciano Jannelli, Ph.D. Chief Economist"

Transcription

1 Dieter Merz, Chief Investment Officer FOREX WEEKLY REPORT Luciano Jannelli, Ph.D. Chief Economist Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT Senior Analyst DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

2 FOREX WEEKLY REPORT - An overview p.3 Economics Global slowdown concerns mount as stocks and gold correct p.4 Economics European Central Bank will soon be forced to act p.5 FX Markets No rates hike in sight for Canada p.6 FX Markets Monetary stimulus from Bank of England is getting nearer p.7 FX Markets Gold has lost some of its shine p.8 FX Markets Potential delayed US QE's exit favours EUR/USD p.9 Disclaimer Page 2 9

3 Economics Global slowdown concerns mount as stocks and gold correct Philadelphia Fed Outlook and Conference Board Leading indicators add to growing gloom As payroll tax hikes continue to kick in, firms deplete existing inventories and postpone hiring plans. After the deterioration of the outlook for the New York area, the greater Philadelphia area followed a similar pattern. Not surprisingly the Conference Board Leading indicator fell 0.1%, from a plus 0.5% in the earlier month. Gold and stocks indicate growing fear? Growth concerns probably overdone A reversal to recession fears is bad for stocks, and through the channels of deflation and emerging markets, also for gold. Yet, contained spreads and a resilient euro against the US dollar are still reminiscent of a moderately risk-on environment. If one recognizes that post-lehman US trend growth is lower than pre-lehman US trend growth, then a cooling of activity was inevitable. Indeed, job creation in excess of an average of 200'000 units per month, observed from over the last two quarters, is consistent with a 3% annual growth rate. Since the financial crisis, the United States' economy has not been able to "escape" from a more modest 2% annual growth rate. Yet, while also the housing markets is showing a bit more signs of fatigue, it is too early to call an end of the US real estate pickup (today's true engine of the US business cycle). Indeed, housing data is necessarily volatile and, while new building permit requests were down, housing construction starts were up. Page 3 9

4 Economics European Central Bank will soon be forced to act Inflation remains no concern It is true that in March headline inflation remained stable and that even core inflation had a more than expected uptick (from 1.3% YoY to 1.5% YoY, against 1.4% YoY). Yet, at 1.7% headline inflation remains well below the 2% target. More importantly, with labor costs under continuing pressure and oil prices receding, there are little upward pressures on the horizon. Weakness is extending beyond countries with financial fragmentation problems A conventional interest rate level is of little help in countries such as Spain and Italy that suffer from the Euro-zone's financial fragmentation. Financial fragmentation essentially means that the monetary transmission mechanism does not work such that Spanish and Italian companies have to pay high interest rates, in spite of the ECB's low reference rate. Yet, Mr. Draghi has pointed out that weakness is now also extending to countries that do not have these problems. The concern is that relatively large economies, such as The Netherlands and France, also get trapped in continuing recession. Thus, while Frankfurt is also studying "nonconventional" measures to break the specific consequences of financial fragmentation, it looks likely to reduce its reference rate too. Fed QE exit might be delayed Since the sequester might create additional uncertainty through November, we expect the Fed to stick to QE through most of the year. This explains while the rebound of the US dollar might be postponed for some while. We still believe it to occur sooner rather than later, as the ECB will, in one way or another, engage expanding its monetary basis, while the Fed will be the first major central bank to exit QE. Page 4 9

5 FX Markets No rates hike in sight for Canada The tightening cycle is fading along Canada's growth outlook. As widely expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its target unchanged for the overnight rate at 1%. The BoC kept a tightening bias by saying that "some modest withdrawal will likely be required after a period of time". But given the lower growth forecast, coupled with CPI inflation lower than 1% (the official target is 2%), it is very unlikely to see any rate hike in the foreseeable future. Indeed, tightening would be intended to prevent further household credit growth. However, the overall strong Canadian dollar, which is hurting exports, and the weakening business cycle outlook would rather call for rate cuts. The weak growth outlook favours a stronger USD/CAD. This gradual shift away from a tightening cycle to a prolonged period of low interest rates (with potential rate cuts along the way) is also shifting our bias towards the USD/CAD. Indeed, we do not see anymore many factors calling for a stronger Canadian dollar versus the US dollar, except an extreme reading in net short CAD positions. However, these indicators are always secondary to price action and, currently, the USD/CAD is not showing any bearish reversal pattern. Moreover, the IMF, which tends to be quite successful in forecasting Canada's growth, warned that a worsening European debt crisis, a fading U.S. recovery or a decline in the global demand for commodities are all factors that could aggravate the economic outlook. The recent economic developments in the U.S. and in China do not bode well for Canada. Looking at the chart, medium to long-term upside potential for USD/CAD are given by the resistances at (June 2012 peak) and (November 2011 peak). Page 5 9

6 FX Markets Monetary stimulus from Bank of England is getting nearer Recent economic data suggest a less rosy phase of global cooling. On Wednesday, the United Kingdom had its share of weak economic releases by publishing a rise in unemployment and a modest increase in the general regular pay (while inflation remains at 2.8% YoY). It is true that an increase in the assets purchase programme of the Bank of England would likely support higher inflation, but given the fiscal austerity and the squeeze on consumers coming from high inflation and low wages, the burden of supporting growth lies in the BoE's hands. However, we still believe that any big change is unlikely to occur before Mr Carney's arrival in July. Indeed, barring a dismal Q1 GDP figure (to be released on 25 April), the BoE should only consider an extension of the Funding for Lending scheme during its next meeting on 9 May. Meanwhile, the decline in oil prices and in other commodities should tame inflation in the short-term. From a technical point of view, the break to the downside of the large multi-months horizontal range between and coupled with the recent short-term rebound suggest that it could already be the time to build short positions in the GBP/USD. Even though a longer rebound could not ruled out, as the main BoE monetary stimulus should occur in August, we continue to believe that the medium-term trend favour a move towards the support at (May 2010 trough). Page 6 9

7 FX Markets Gold has lost some of its shine Gold suffered its sharpest fall on 15 April since the 1980s, losing more than 9% at the closing bell and breaking the long-term key support at 1523 that was holding since end of Basically, gold demand can be divided in four categories: jewellery, investment, technology and central bank net purchases. The demand coming from technology and jewellery tends to remain fairly constant, with the difference that technology's percentage of total demand is small while the one from jewellery is large. On the other hand, demand from central banks and investment is more volatile, with the latter having increased regularly since 2011, along with the rise of gold, so as to reach roughly the same size of jewellery demand. Therefore, the behaviour of these last two categories is key to understand what lies ahead for gold. Central banks have been net buyers since However, the decision of the Cyprus National Bank to sell its gold as part of refinancing measures could be followed by other central banks. Overall, we do not expect central bank net purchase to have a positive impact on gold. Investors, on the other hand, have invested in gold throughout the last ten years as an inflationary hedge, a financial crisis hedge and because of its stellar performance since the start of However, recent economic data indicate that no inflation is in sight as the global recovery is still struggling. Thus gold is becoming relatively less interesting as a safehaven asset, as the recent Cyprus crisis has shown. The resulting decline in price is expected to have left scars among investors, so a pickup in investment demand is unlikely in the next months, which favours further decline towards at least 1290 USD. However, long-term investors and jewellery demand are likely to put a floor in gold's decline and lead to a new range for wide sideways moves. Page 7 9

8 FX Markets Potential delayed US QE's exit favours EUR/USD The International Monetary Market (IMM) non-commercial positioning is used to visualise the flows of funds from one currency to another. It is usually viewed as a contrarian indicator when it reaches an extreme in positioning. Euro short positions have been reduced, which has led to some Euro strength. The recent weak economic data coming from the US, suggesting that the Fed could delay its QE exit, coupled with a significant short Euro positioning could lead to further short-term strength for the Euro. The British pound saw further increase in short positions. It is approaching the extreme levels seen in September 2008 (-48.37%) and March 2010 (-54.82%). Even though this increases the risks of GBP rebounds, we continue to believe that the weak growth, the fiscal tightening, the change of the BoE's remit and the arrival of Mr Carney will lead to a more aggressive BoE, which ultimately should weaken the British pound. The short positions in the Japanese yen have not increased despite the recent sharp JPY depreciation. It suggests that there are not only speculative flows pushing the yen lower but also some structural flows. We continue to believe that BoJ's bold measures will continue to put pressure on the yen, leading to further depreciation. The positioning in Australian dollar is still extremely long. Even though it suggests that risks are more biased to the downside, we would more focus on the price evolution or, in other words, a break of the horizontal range between roughly and to give the direction of the next medium-term trend. Page 8 9

9 DISCLAIMER No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG Bank for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG Bank makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG Bank believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG Bank makes no such claim. Limitation of liability MIG Bank disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages. Material Interests MIG Bank and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities. Copyright All material produced is copyright to MIG Bank and may not be copied, ed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG Bank. Page 9 9

FOREX WEEKLY REPORT. 4 March - 10 March 2013. Dieter Merz, Chief Investment Officer. Luciano Jannelli, Ph.D. Chief Economist

FOREX WEEKLY REPORT. 4 March - 10 March 2013. Dieter Merz, Chief Investment Officer. Luciano Jannelli, Ph.D. Chief Economist Dieter Merz, Chief Investment Officer FOREX WEEKLY REPORT Luciano Jannelli, Ph.D. Chief Economist Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT Senior Analyst www.migbank.com DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES FOREX WEEKLY REPORT - An overview

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Moving higher. EUR/USD has been range-bound

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Bouncing back. EUR/USD is now moving

More information

FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016)

FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016) 2750 14th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: 1.8.20.1740 FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-201) FOREX MAJORS (USD) 2015 201 SPOT Q1a Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Canadian Dollar USD/CAD 1.27

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Selling pressures are still strong. EUR/USD

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 2015 March 2015

Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 2015 March 2015 Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 5 March 5 PERSPECTIVES Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Gabriele Oriolo Analyst Global Asset Allocation Research While

More information

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK - An Overview p3 p4 p5 p6 p7 p8 p9 Disclaimer Waiting For GBP Rally - Peter Rosenstreich Canada Officially Enters Recession - Yann Quelenn

More information

FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well

FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 January 2016 FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well As expected, the Fed funds target rate was unchanged at 0.25%-0.50%.

More information

Nivesh Daily Currency

Nivesh Daily Currency Nivesh Daily Currency February 3, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 68.27 0.20 6.75-3.2 68.3550 68.2025 68.1175 EURINR 74.50 0.67 20.16-10.6

More information

FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016)

FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016) 2750 14th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: 1.8.20.1740 FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-201) FOREX MAJORS (USD) 2015 201 SPOT Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Canadian Dollar USD/CAD 1.27

More information

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

More information

FINANCIAL REPORT - MARCH 2015

FINANCIAL REPORT - MARCH 2015 FINANCIAL REPORT - MARCH 2015 SUMMARY OF THE MACROECONOMIC INFORMATION The macroeconomic scenario Deflation in Europe, the USA well. The passage of years is very positive for the United States: the positive

More information

Chapter 4.1. Intermarket Relationships

Chapter 4.1. Intermarket Relationships 1 Chapter 4.1 Intermarket Relationships 0 Contents INTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPS The forex market is the largest global financial market. While no other financial market can compare to the size of the forex

More information

Strategy German engine in headwind

Strategy German engine in headwind Investment Research General Market Conditions 9 October 2015 Strategy German engine in headwind German economic data have started to show weakness and, in our view, more softness is looming. This is because

More information

Daily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014

Daily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014 Australia FX Pick:AUD/USD Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of 0.8122-0.8203 levels. AUD/USD s short-term support is at 0.8070, and resistance is

More information

Chapter 1.1. The Forex Market

Chapter 1.1. The Forex Market Chapter 1.1 The Forex Market 0 THE FOREX MARKET The Forex market is the largest financial market in the world. Nearly $3.2 trillion worth of foreign currencies trade back and forth across the Forex market

More information

Wild Swings in Bonds, Currencies: Are Stocks Next? By: Bryan Rich Founder FXTraderProfessional.com

Wild Swings in Bonds, Currencies: Are Stocks Next? By: Bryan Rich Founder FXTraderProfessional.com Wild Swings in Bonds, Currencies: Are Stocks Next? By: Bryan Rich Founder FXTraderProfessional.com Copyright 2015 Logic Fund Management, Inc. - Do Not Distribute or Use Without Written Permission RISK

More information

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: 00:01 (UK), 14 July 2014 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Worldwide business confidence wanes Global optimism slips from two-year high Waning confidence centred on eurozone

More information

Statement to Parliamentary Committee

Statement to Parliamentary Committee Statement to Parliamentary Committee Opening Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor, in testimony to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Sydney, 14 August 2009. The Bank s Statement

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of

More information

October 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

October 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy October 2015 Market Volatility likely to Remain Elevated on China Growth Concerns & Fed Rate Uncertainty. Stocks

More information

AN INTRODUCTION TO THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

AN INTRODUCTION TO THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET DUKASCOPY BANK SA AN INTRODUCTION TO THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET DUKASCOPY BANK EDUCATIONAL GUIDE AN INTRODUCTION TO THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET www.dukascopy.com CONTENTS INTRODUCTION TO FOREX CURRENCY

More information

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK The AUD Still finding support Tuesday, 10 July 2012 Concerns regarding global economic growth have pushed commodity prices and the AUD lower since edging above $US1.08 in January.

More information

Strategy Chinese FX policy confusion

Strategy Chinese FX policy confusion Investment Research General Market Conditions 8 January 2016 Strategy Chinese FX policy confusion This year kicked off with global risk-off sentiment led by Chinese equities but also in Europe and the

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015

Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Moderate recovery continues in advanced economies, but a weakening of activity in emerging economies is adding to global deflationary pressures Further

More information

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

The U.S. Economy after September 11. 1. pushing us from sluggish growth to an outright contraction. b and there s a lot of uncertainty.

The U.S. Economy after September 11. 1. pushing us from sluggish growth to an outright contraction. b and there s a lot of uncertainty. Presentation to the University of Washington Business School For delivery November 15, 2001 at approximately 8:05 AM Pacific Standard Time (11:05 AM Eastern) By Robert T. Parry, President and CEO of the

More information

Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices

Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices Page 1 of 5 Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices June 16, 2015 (#2015-13) Douglas T. Breeden William W. Priest Professor of Finance, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University and Senior

More information

2013 2014e 2015f. www.economics.gov.nl.ca. Real GDP Growth (%)

2013 2014e 2015f. www.economics.gov.nl.ca. Real GDP Growth (%) The global economy recorded modest growth in 2014. Real GDP rose by 3.4%, however, economic performance varied by country and region (see table). Several regions turned in a lackluster performance. The

More information

Interest Rate Forecast

Interest Rate Forecast Interest Rate Forecast Economics December Highlights Fed normalization begins More policy moves in China Canada s uneven economy BoC on hold, lower CAD Per cent 6 4 3 2 1 U.S. Federal Funds Rate A continuation

More information

CIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016

CIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016 CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH The global macro picture:

More information

Daily Commodity Report

Daily Commodity Report Daily Commodity Report Daily Metals & Energy update Gold rose on Tuesday as the dollar receded slightly and stocks fell globally, though expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates

More information

Chapter 1.1. The Forex Market

Chapter 1.1. The Forex Market Chapter 1.1 The Forex Market 0 THE FOREX MARKET The Forex market is the largest financial market in the world. Nearly $3.2 trillion worth of foreign currencies trade back and forth across the Forex market

More information

FxPro Education. Introduction to FX markets

FxPro Education. Introduction to FX markets FxPro Education Within any economy, consumers and businesses use currency as a medium of exchange. In the UK, pound sterling is the national currency, while in the United States it is the US dollar. Modern

More information

Nivesh Daily Currency

Nivesh Daily Currency Nivesh Daily Currency February 10, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 68.13-0.08-5.44-6.96 68.3367 68.2183 67.9942 EURINR 76.35 0.62

More information

Chapter 1.1. The Forex Market

Chapter 1.1. The Forex Market Chapter 1.1 The Forex Market 0 THE FOREX MARKET The Forex market is the largest financial market in the world. Nearly $3.2 trillion worth of foreign currencies trade back and forth across the Forex market

More information

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

More information

Why ECB QE is Negative for Commodities. Investment Research & Advisory. Deltec International Group

Why ECB QE is Negative for Commodities. Investment Research & Advisory. Deltec International Group Atul Lele alele@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4135 David Munoz dmunoz@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4106 David Frazer dfrazer@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4156 Why ECB QE is Negative for Commodities Recent ECB Quantitative

More information

A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off

A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted

More information

FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES

FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES Along with globalization has come a high degree of interdependence. Central to this is a flexible exchange rate system, where exchange rates are determined each business day by

More information

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%

More information

Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Switzerland

Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Switzerland www.pwc.ch/swissfranc Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Introduction The Swiss economy is cooling down and we are currently experiencing unprecedented levels of uncertainty in

More information

Mackenzie Private Wealth Counsel

Mackenzie Private Wealth Counsel Mackenzie Private Wealth Counsel Q1 216 Review Opportunities in a Challenging Macro Environment Todd Mattina, Chief Economist and Strategist, Mackenzie Asset Allocation Team Following one of the rockiest

More information

Chapter 3.1. Capital and Trade Flow Drive Currency Values

Chapter 3.1. Capital and Trade Flow Drive Currency Values Chapter 3.1 Capital and Trade Flow Drive Currency Values 0 CAPITAL AND TRADE FLOW DRIVE CURRENCY VALUES Supply and demand are the simple concepts behind all price movement in the forex market, and no two

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

Economic Data. November 20, 2015. November 19, 2015

Economic Data. November 20, 2015. November 19, 2015 Economic Data November 19, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 1.60% 0.10% -0.30% NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 1.30% 0.20% -0.20% JPY Trade

More information

LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS APRIL 2014 LIST OF MAJOR LEADING & LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS Most economists talk about where the economy is headed it s what they do. Paying attention to economic indicators can give you an idea of

More information

Japan Economic Monthly

Japan Economic Monthly Japan Economic Monthly Sustained Strong Corporate Profits Point to Increasing Employment and Capital Expenditures REI TSURUTA TOORU KANAHORI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE 1 OCTOBER (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION

More information

EUR/USD Tips and Trading Strategies. Kathy Lien www.bkforex.com

EUR/USD Tips and Trading Strategies. Kathy Lien www.bkforex.com EUR/USD Tips and Trading Strategies Kathy Lien www.bkforex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.

More information

MORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

MORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Dec. 23 Jan. 2 ECONOMY AND STRATEGY 51.879.2529 Clément Gignac Strategist and Chief Economist Stéfane Marion Assistant Chief Economist Paul-André Pinsonnault Senior Fixed Income Economist Marc Pinsonneault

More information

April 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

April 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy April 2015 Stocks to Stabilize & Post Gains with Further Rate Cuts & Easing Measures, ECB s QE, Gradual, Modest

More information

Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks

Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 1 christian@harbourasset.co.nz + 89 Global bond yields stabilised in July, as markets weighed up two opposing

More information

March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1

March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1 March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1 1 Euro area outlook: overview and key features The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue, albeit with less momentum

More information

Economic Data. November 06, 2015. November 05, 2015

Economic Data. November 06, 2015. November 05, 2015 Economic Data November 05, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BOJ Minutes for Oct. 6-7 Meeting CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Oct -18-19 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Sep -1.70% 1.00%

More information

Monthly Economic Dashboard

Monthly Economic Dashboard RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves

More information

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016 Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global World GDP is forecast to grow only 2.4% in 2016, weighed down by emerging market weakness and increasing uncertainty. 3 Eurozone The modest eurozone

More information

2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK TTG WEALTH MANAGEMENT 2015Q1 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents 2015Q1 Core Asset Allocation Summary 1 2015Q1 Satellite Asset Allocation Summary 2 2014 Year-End Review 3 Investment Outlook for

More information

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September

More information

FUNDS TM. G10 Currencies: White Paper. A Monetary Policy Analysis FUNDS. The Authority on Currencies

FUNDS TM. G10 Currencies: White Paper. A Monetary Policy Analysis FUNDS. The Authority on Currencies FUNDS White Paper The Authority on Currencies Merk Investments LLC Research MAY 2012 G10 Currencies: A Monetary Policy Analysis Merk Monetary Score favors currencies of, and Canada; disfavors currencies

More information

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015 Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3

More information

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK WATCH

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK WATCH GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK WATCH How far will interest rates rise? The neutral level of interest rates in most economies is much lower than in the past However, we expect the US Fed funds rate to rise temporarily

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Autumn 2013 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

RECENT MORTGAGE RATE HIKES IN CANADA ANSWERS TO SOME COMMON QUESTIONS

RECENT MORTGAGE RATE HIKES IN CANADA ANSWERS TO SOME COMMON QUESTIONS OBSERVATION TD Economics RECENT MORTGAGE RATE HIKES IN CANADA ANSWERS TO SOME COMMON QUESTIONS With a continued decline in interest rates since the mid-199s, Canadians are used to low (and falling) mortgage

More information

Global Investing: The Importance of Currency Returns and Currency Hedging

Global Investing: The Importance of Currency Returns and Currency Hedging Global Investing: The Importance of Currency Returns and Currency Hedging There is a continuing trend for investors to reduce their home bias in equity allocation and increase the allocation to international

More information

Chapter 1.3. Fundamentals Make Currency Pairs Move

Chapter 1.3. Fundamentals Make Currency Pairs Move Chapter 1.3 Fundamentals Make Currency Pairs Move 0 FUNDAMENTALS MAKE CURRENCY PAIRS MOVE The key to making money in the Forex is understanding what makes currency pairs move. Ultimately, it is investors

More information

The Credit Crisis: A Monetary Explanation

The Credit Crisis: A Monetary Explanation M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Global Economics The Credit Crisis: A Monetary Explanation Joachim Fels Chief Global Fixed Income Economist & Co-Head of Global Economics 33 rd Annual IOSCO Conference

More information

Sterling Event Conference Call Tuesday, 08 September 2015

Sterling Event Conference Call Tuesday, 08 September 2015 0800 781 9706 Hamish Pepper: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the September Sterling conference call. Well, since we last spoke on 4 th August it s been anything but quiet over what is traditionally

More information

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: :1 (UK), 1 March 14 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Developed world set to lead strengthening global upturn in 14 Global business optimism hits two-year high Improved

More information

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA Economist Member, Asset Mix Committee Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy 2014 National Business Conference October 2014 1 October 23, 2014 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this

More information

18 ECB STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

18 ECB STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE Box 1 STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE Over the past three decades, the growth rates of MFI loans to the private sector and the narrow monetary aggregate M1 have displayed relatively

More information

Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today.

Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today. Remarks by David Dodge Governor of the Bank of Canada to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec 11 February 2004 Adjusting to a Changing Economic World Good afternoon, ladies and

More information

OVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds

OVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds OVERVIEW A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds whose strength underpins an upward revision to the growth forecast this year The outlook for economic growth in the EU has

More information

Global Markets Update Signature Global Advisors

Global Markets Update Signature Global Advisors SIGNATURE GLOBAL ADVISORS MARKETS UPDATE AUGUST 3, 2011 The following comments come from an internal interview with Chief Investment Officer, Eric Bushell. They represent Signature s current market views

More information

Global Financials Update April 13, 2012

Global Financials Update April 13, 2012 Global Financials Update April 13, 2012 Global Market Update After posting a fairly strong and consistent rally over much of the last six months, the global equity markets have changed course over the

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

EPIC RESEARCH REPORT DAILY INTERNATIONAL FOREX

EPIC RESEARCH REPORT DAILY INTERNATIONAL FOREX 25-July-2016 EPIC RESEARCH REPORT DAILY INTERNATIONAL FOREX INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ Forex - EUR/USD little changed after string of PMI reports Forex - GBP/USD moves lower as U.K. PMIs add to post-brexit

More information

Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined

Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 February 2016 Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined In our view, the uncertainty in financial markets and rising risk of a systemic

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities January U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities As we enter 2015, the U.S. economy and housing markets are prepared for a robust start. Unlike one year ago,

More information

Global bond investing

Global bond investing Global bond investing Todd Schlanger, CFA Investment Strategy Group Vanguard Asset Management, Limited This document is directed at professional investors and should not be distributed to, or relied upon

More information

Foreign Exchange Trading Managers

Foreign Exchange Trading Managers Foreign Exchange Trading Managers Quantum Leap Capital (abbreviated as QLC ) is a Forex Trading Manager which focuses on trading worldwide foreign currencies on behalf of institutions, corporates and individual

More information

Chapter 1.1. The Forex Market

Chapter 1.1. The Forex Market Chapter 1.1 The Forex Market 0 THE FOREX MARKET The Forex market is the largest financial market in the world. Nearly $3.2 trillion worth of foreign currencies trade back and forth across the Forex market

More information

Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon?

Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? September 015 MONTHLY MARKET INSIGHT Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? The fear of rising interest rates, which has clouded investors psyches for years, has

More information

CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering

CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering 19 December 2013 The art of tapering without spoiling markets (I) Final decision and first reaction Taper light, with strengthened forward guidance The Federal Open Market Committee

More information

Markets Roundup. Research. US data show that deflation risks are rising

Markets Roundup. Research. US data show that deflation risks are rising Markets Roundup August 24 t h, 29 C O N T E N T S Market Movers 2 Economics Weekly Calendar 5 Central Bank Policies 6 US data show that deflation risks are rising Research Although Chinese equities have

More information

CENTRAL BANKS, EUR & GEOPOLITICS Camilla Sutton l Chief Currency Strategist (416)866 5470 l camilla.sutton@scotiabank.com

CENTRAL BANKS, EUR & GEOPOLITICS Camilla Sutton l Chief Currency Strategist (416)866 5470 l camilla.sutton@scotiabank.com DIAL IN: 905 694 9451 (local to Toronto) PASSCODE: 942 044 097# CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS Press 1 Skip backward 5 seconds Press 3 Skip forward 5 Press 4 Skip backward 5 minutes Press 6 Skip forward 5 minutes

More information

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

Assignment 10 (Chapter 11)

Assignment 10 (Chapter 11) Assignment 10 (Chapter 11) 1. Which of the following tends to cause the U.S. dollar to appreciate in value? a) An increase in U.S. prices above foreign prices b) Rapid economic growth in foreign countries

More information

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment Chartbook Contact: Sebastian Becker +49 69 91-3664 Global Risk Analysis The unwinding of Yen carry trades Some empirical evidence 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 October 31, 28 Many years before the sub-prime crisis hit

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Summer 2013 1 About the European Forecasting Network The European Forecasting Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions,

More information

Sprott Enhanced Equity Strategy December 2015 Commentary

Sprott Enhanced Equity Strategy December 2015 Commentary Major North American indices finished December in the red after a volatile trading month with the S&P TSX and S&P 00 Total Return Index down.% and.6%, respectively. As we start 06, major market indices

More information

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate

More information

Markets Roundup. Yellen mildly hawkish at this week s FOMC? 14 March 2016 Research

Markets Roundup. Yellen mildly hawkish at this week s FOMC? 14 March 2016 Research Markets Roundup Research CONTENTS Market Movers 2 Economics Weekly Calendar 5 Yellen mildly hawkish at this week s FOMC? After the ECB surprised the markets last Thursday, financial market participants

More information

US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016

US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016 Investment Research General Market Conditions 02 August 2016 US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016 Jobs report preview We

More information

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial

More information