Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist December

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1 New Environment for Refinancing in Russia Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist December

2 Excessive sterilization depressed liquidity Banking crisis stemmed from a decline in liquidity Accumulation of CBR reserves (+$36 bln) translated into $14 bln for stabilization fund Capital outflow seen at $12 bln for this year versus $2 bln in 2003 Free banking liquidity got squeezed, from $27 bln in February to $16 bln in May Russia s financial markets became much less liquid (ex. veksel market stagnated) Russia shows greater capital outflow in 2004 Banking liquidity down 3 in real terms in $ bln 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q $ bln Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Cash in circulation Liquidity in banks Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 2

3 Banks show slower growth in liabilities Rate of liabilities growth dropped by three times in 2004 CBR is implementing a tougher approach to banks 188 of 859 banks inspected were using fictitious capital schemes Some enterprises are experiencing refinancing problems Construction sector appears vulnerable to liquidity shortage Bad loans increased in 3Q04 to 1.7% of lending portfolio from 1.5% Deposits growth is one-third the level of 2003 Bad loans data showed an increase in summer Growth rate, % 1.8% % +19% +37% % 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.58% 1.51% 1.55% 1.62% % 1.71% 1.67% 1.71% 1.71% 1.72% 1.65% Retail deposits Corporate accounts 1.4% Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul M04 8M04 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 3

4 Competition for corporate money is rising Before the banking crisis (October 2003) After the banking crisis (October 2004) 12% %, R deposits 12% %, R deposits 8% 8% 4% 4% 1M 3M 6M 1Y 1M 3M 6M 1Y Corporate Retail Corporate Retail 8% %, $ deposits 8% %, $ deposits 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1M 3M 6M 1Y 1M 3M 6M 1Y Corporate Retail Corporate Retail Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 4

5 Better liquidity pushed interbank rate down Companies and banks borrowed $4 bln in September and $2.3 bln in October from abroad Banking liquidity went up to $18 bln, still below $30 bln fair level Corporate borrowing jumped in September-October Liquidity improved, rates went down $ mln Rate, % R bln 5, ,000 4, ,000 2, ,000 2,112 2, , , Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 0 Mar-03 May-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Nov Sources: CBR, Bloomberg, Alfa Bank estimates Interbank rate Liquidity (Cor.accounts+deposits in CBR) Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 5

6 Interbank market is now more segmented Foreign banks Corporate clients inflow +24% YTD Retail deposits +26% YTD State banks Corporate clients inflow +45% YTD Retail deposits +19% YTD Largest private banks Corporate clients inflow +8% YTD Retail deposits +2% YTD Medium private banks Corporate clients inflow +49% YTD Retail deposits +18% YTD Note: State banks include Sberbank, Vneshtorgbank, Gazprombank Foreign banks include Citibank, Raiffeisen and International Moscow Bank Largest private banks include Alfa Bank, Rosbank, MDM, UralSib, NIKoil, Avtobank-NIKoil, Petrcommerz, Menatep, Trust Medium private banks other banks among the top-40 in Russia All figures calculated as of October 1, 2004 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 6

7 Low FOR shifted focus to refinancing options $ bln Dec-01 Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Available refinancing options Sovereign Eurobonds ($40 bln) Efficiency Around $3-5 bln is held by Sberbank and $30 bln by foreign participants OFZs, CBR bonds ($20 bln) Around 6 of OFZs are held by Sberbank, 3 by the State Pension Fund Private banks are no longer active holders Ruble bonds of city of Moscow ($2 bln) Around 5 held by Sberbank Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 7

8 Greater refinancing opportunities discussed Corporate ruble bonds Regional and municipal bonds $7 bln market, of which 3 could be used for refinancing purposes $4 bln market, of which $3 bln could be used for refinancing purposes Refinancing guaranteed by FOR reserves Represents around $2 bln for non-state banks Securitization of loans Primary dealers on the interbank market Good measure in a situation of systemic crisis Crucial way to provide the banking sector with liquidity Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 8

9 Banking sector moving towards mature stage Assets concentration in banking sector 10 Consolidation of banking assets will help the interbank market 8 Consolidation of NIKoil-UralSib group into $6 bln bank % 6.1% VTB announced interest in $3 bln assets of Promstroibank-St. Petersburg Deposit insurance should favor deposit inflow to banks % 40.2% Due to a lack of long-term funding some banks used the interbank market on a regular basis Deposits to GDP ratio has stagnated at around 12%; highlights issue of confidence 4Q03 3Q04 State banks Foreign Others Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 9

10 Clauses This publication has been approved for distribution in the United Kingdom by Alfa Securities Limited, which is regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom. It has not been approved for distribution to, or for the use of, private customers as defined by the rules of the SFA and may not be distributed to such persons. Although the information herein has been obtained from and is based upon sources the Firm believes to be reliable, no representation or warranty express or implied is made nor responsibility of any kind is accepted by Alfa Securities Limited, its directors or employees either as to the accuracy or completeness of any information stated herein or that material facts have not been omitted. All information and opinions stated herein are subject to change without notice. Alfa Securities Limited makes no warranty or representation that the securities and/or recommendations referred to herein are appropriate for all recipients. This document is for information purpose only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Alfa Bank, Alfa Securities and their associated companies may issue this publication in other countries. Alfa Bank, Alfa Securities and their associated companies and their respective officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation of issuance of this document may have or may from time to time deal in, hold or act as market makers or advisors, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to securities, financial instruments or companies mentioned in this document or be represented on the board of such companies. Foreigncurrency-denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or the price of, or income derived from, the investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies, effectively assume currency risk. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of United States securities laws or the laws of any such other jurisdiction. Investing in Russia and Russian securities involves a high degree of risk and investors should perform their own due diligence before investing Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 10

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