Economic Data. October 01, September 30, October 01, 2015

Transcription

1 Economic Data September 30, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -4.90% 20.40% GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.50% 1.10% -0.80% JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Aug 0.80% 1.30% 1.60% NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Sep AUD Building Approvals M/M Aug -6.90% -1.90% 4.20% JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Aug 8.80% 7.70% 7.40% CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Aug CHF KOF Leading Indicator Sep EUR German Unemployment Change Sep 2K -5K -7k EUR German Unemployment Rate Sep 6.40% 6.40% EUR Italian Unemployment Rate Aug P 11.90% 12.00% 12.00% GBP Current Account (GBP) Q2-16.8B -22.3B -26.5b GBP GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Jul 0.80% 0.80% 0.70% EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Aug 11.00% 10.90% 10.90% EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Sep -0.10% 0.00% 0.10% EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Sep A 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% USD ADP Employment Change Sep 200K 185k 190k CAD GDP M/M Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.50% USD Chicago PMI Sep USD Crude Oil Inventories 4M -0.5M -1.9M Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q JPY Tankan Small Mfg Index Q JPY Tankan Small Mfg Outlook Q JPY Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index Q JPY Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook Q JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q % 8.50% 9.30% CNY Manufacturing PMI Sep CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Sep CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Sep F CNY Caixin Services PMI Sep CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Aug -0.30% 0.30% -0.10% CHF SVME-PMI Sep EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Sep EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep F GBP UK PMI Manufacturing Sep USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Sep 2.90% USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 26) 273K 267K USD Construction Spending M/M Aug 0.60% 0.70% USD ISM Manufacturing Sep USD ISM Prices Paid Sep USD Natural Gas Storage 106B 1

2 International Market Recap Commodity Previous Close Open High Low Copper Nickel Aluminium Lead Zinc Comex Previous Close Open High Low Copper OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB Spread NOV5 DEC5 JAN6 FEB6 OCT NOV DEC JAN SHFE Previous Close Open High Low Copper OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB SHFE Previous Close Open High Low Nickel OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB

3 Indian Market Recap Copper Previous Close Open High Low % Vol. Volume NOV FEB APR Change = Spread FEB6 APR6 NOV FEB Nickel Previous Close Open High Low % Vol. Volume OCT NOV DEC JAN Change = 4503 Spread NOV5 DEC5 JAN6 OCT NOV DEC LME Copper climbed on Thursday as a gauge of China's factory activity showed the country's economy deteriorating in September, sparking short-covering in holiday-thinned trade. China's factory activity fell to a more-than-6-year low in September while growth in the onceresilient services sector came close to stalling, fueling fears that the economy may be slowing more sharply than expected. Factory activity shrank to 47.2 in September, the lowest reading since March 2009 and slightly weaker than 47.3 in August, the final Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed on Thursday. A similar survey for services fell for a second consecutive month to 50.5, its lowest since July 2014 and barely above the 50-mark which separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis. The August reading was The Shanghai Futures Exchange was closed on Thursday for a week of national holidays. Nickel was higher on Wednesday on Thursday. The Dollar Index pushed higher against the other major currencies on Wednesday, after data showed that U.S. non-farm private employment rose more than expected in September. Payroll processing firm ADP said U.S. non-farm private employment rose by 200,000 this month, above expectations for an increase of 194,000. The economy created 186,000 jobs in August, whose figure was downwardly revised from a previously reported increase of 190,000. 3

4 Investors now await the highly-anticipated national employment report due Friday, one which is expected to be closely watched by the Fed. The daily inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed a decline in the inventory levels of Aluminium, Lead and Copper, while Zinc and Nickel inventories rose on Wednesday. The weekly inventory data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showed an increase in the inventory levels of Copper and Lead, while the inventory levels of Aluminium, Nickel and Zinc declined last week. MCX Copper and Nickel ended in the green on Wednesday, tracking firm overseas prices. LME Official Stocks in MT Commodity 29-Sep Sep-15 Aluminium 3,187,000 3,179,225-7, Copper 323, ,400-3, Nickel 452, , Lead 163, , Zinc 588, ,025 7, SHFE Official Stocks in MT Commodity 25-Sep-15 1-Oct-15 Aluminium 289, ,443-1, Copper 150, ,551 2, Nickel 14,251 13, Lead 166, ,098 2, Zinc 25,837 25, Commitment of Traders - 9/15/2015-9/22/2015 Non-Commercial Commercial Non-Reportable Weekly Weekly Weekly Position Position Position Change Change Change Futures -13,250-9,209 19,219 8,766-5, and Options -13,244-9,101 19,158 8,568-5, and Options - Disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN LME COT - Market Report as of 2015/09/29 Metals Position Change Aluminium 300,977-1,132 Copper 60, Nickel 27, Lead 13, Zinc 45,917 2,685 4

5 LME Copper - (5212.5) MCX Copper November - (347.35) Trade Recommendations None. Outlook LME Copper could trade range bound to firm. Resistance is at 5235 and Supports are at 5135 and MCX Copper could remain range bound to firm, tracking firm overseas prices. A firm Rupee could limit upside. Intraday resistances are at and Intraday supports are at and

6 LME Nickel - ( ) MCX Nickel October - (694.50) Trade Recommendations None. Outlook LME Nickel could trade range bound to firm. Support is at and Key resistance level is at and MCX Nickel could remain range bound to firm, tracking firm overseas prices. A firm Rupee could limit upside. Support is at and Key resistance level is at and

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