Housing Price Forecasts, Illinois and Chicago MSA

Transcription

1 Housing Price Forecasts, 2015 Illinois and Chicago MSA Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University of Illinois November, 2015 Contact: Geoffrey Hewings ([email protected]) Xian Fang ([email protected])

2 Housing Price Forecasts, Introduction: The State of the Economy Since the end of 2013, the job market has enjoyed a strong, consistent recovery. By October 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate declined to a six-year low of 5.8% (from 7.2% a year ago). Nonfarm payroll jobs experienced annual gains of 2,643,000 jobs. Statewide, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES), by October 2014 the Illinois unemployment rate fell to 6.6% from 9.1% a year ago and 39,400 non-farm payroll jobs were created. Along with the positive signals from the job market, consumer confidence has increased to an historic high level. In October, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 86.9 the highest level in the last seven years, largely due to the positive consumers sentiment on job growth. Similarly, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased to 94.5 the highest since November Moreover, the Federal Reserve announced to end its bond-buying program this October. As the latest quantitative, begun in late 2012, it is recognized by most analysts that it has been successful in achieving the goal of keeping long-term interest rates low accompanied by strong hiring, while others are more conservative about its effects. According to Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, the bond purchasing will be completed at least for now although more bond-buying could be resumed if necessary. Furthermore, the Fed has announced that it will not hike the short-term rates in the short-term. While the stock market responded positively to the change of the policy, the mortgage interest rates tied with the housing market are still relatively intact. It will definitely influence people s plans on buying and selling due to the change of their expectations on the interest rates, but it is uncertain when and how much these effects would translate into more robust housing sales.

3 Housing Price Forecasts, The Housing Market Conditions and Forecasts Current Conditions In the last twelve months, median prices still grew with continuing strong momentum while sales slowed. Median prices showed robust positive growth in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA. In Illinois, annual growth rates of each month varied between 4.4% and 13.4%. The comparative range for the Chicago PMSA was slightly higher, between 5.4% and 17.7%. As for sales, the strong momentum of growth in 2013 disappeared in In 2013, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA experienced solid two-digit annual gains varying between 15.3% and 39.1% in each month. Not surprisingly, the year-over-year growth of sales achieved in 2013 would be hard to match. Given the high level of sales in 2013 the highest since 2008 the growth of sales in 2014 was far more modest. In 2014, the growth rates of sales were between - 9.2% and 9.9% for Illinois and between -12.0% and 10.1% for the Chicago PMSA. Furthermore, when total sales are distinguished between those of foreclosed properties as opposed to regular property sales, it becomes clear that there has been a significant drop in foreclosed property sales and this drop accounts for a large percentage of the annual decrease in total sales in In the Chicago PMSA, the monthly regular sales changed by -7.7% to 5.6% from a year ago, while foreclosed sales decreased by 14.3% to 30.3%. As for the median sales prices, both groups contributed to the robust gains in overall median prices. Foreclosed properties and regular properties respectively experienced year-over-year gains by 5.0%-14.2% and 2.8%-18.8% respectively since the beginning of Forecasts and Future Condition Median prices are forecast to continuously grow in 2015 but at a slower pace compared with On a year-over-year basis, these gains will range from 5.5% to 10.1% for Illinois and 3.7% to 8.7% for the Chicago PMSA. By December 2015, the median price of homes is forecast to be $169,878 in Illinois and $199,021 in Chicago PMSA, 8.4% and 8.6% respectively higher on an annual basis. As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 1 forecast indicate more mixed growth trends in the months ahead. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to experience a growth rate between -3.5% and 6.9% for Illinois and -4.5% 1 REAL HPI was developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for further details.

4 Housing Price Forecasts, to 9.5% for the Chicago PMSA. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable baskets of homes for each month. As for sales, they are forecast to experience more positive gains in 2015 compared to the more sluggish growth experienced in The annual growth in monthly sales is forecast to be in the range from 1.94% to 15.81% for Illinois and -0.27% to 13.22% for the Chicago PMSA. Furthermore, if we exclude foreclosed sales from the total sales, regular property sales in the Chicago PMSA will grow in a lower range between 1.09% and 6.65%. According to the latest Freddie Mac MiMi index, the housing market activities of Illinois have recovered by 29.2% compared to the historic low recorded in November 2011 and ranks 46 th among all states. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA is a recovery rate of 42.3% and a ranking of 44 th out of 50 Metro areas. These improvements can be attributed to the change in the local employment situation in the past three months, while the other three perspectives measuring home purchase application, payment-to-income ratios and portion of on-time mortgage are still weaker than their historically stable levels. Furthermore, Illinois and Chicago are behind the national recovery rates by respectively 10.4% and 25.5%. The MiMi index is released by Freddie Mac intending to monitor the stability and recovery of the nation s housing market. They indicate each market s current condition as weak, in range or elevated, relative to their historic stable level before Sales growth in 2014 did not match the amazing numbers in 2013, but the growth in both sales and prices continued to be positive in both Chicago and Illinois, noted Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory of the University of Illinois. Robust job growth has resulted in more upbeat consumer sentiments about the economy. The forecasts suggest both positive growth for sales and prices in 2015 but with a moderation in the growth of prices and a slight acceleration of sales rates compared to 2014.

5 Housing Price Forecasts, Annual Sales Forecast (Nov 2014 to Dec 2015) Percentage Change for the Total Number of Sales ( Illinois and Chicago PMSA: Forecast range) Illinois Monthly Chicago Illinois Annually Chicago Nov % % % % 4.42% 5.98% 2.00% 2.71% Dec % 3.64% 3.19% 4.32% 2.89% 3.91% -0.20% -0.27% Jan % % % % 9.77% 13.21% 7.82% 10.58% Feb % -0.18% -2.58% -3.49% 11.57% 15.65% 8.86% 11.98% Mar % 30.06% 24.84% 33.61% 11.69% 15.81% 9.25% 12.51% Apr % 14.10% 13.26% 17.94% 6.11% 8.26% 8.48% 11.48% May % 19.68% 15.07% 20.38% 5.44% 7.35% 8.89% 12.03% Jun % 9.34% 7.61% 10.29% 1.94% 2.62% 4.09% 5.54% Jul % -1.49% 1.52% 2.05% 2.67% 3.61% 7.05% 9.53% Aug % -0.80% -3.35% -4.53% 6.31% 8.53% 9.77% 13.22% Sep % % % % 4.21% 5.69% 7.86% 10.64% Oct % 1.39% -1.23% -1.66% 5.50% 7.44% 7.30% 9.87% Nov % % % % 5.97% 8.08% 6.32% 8.55% Dec % 1.82% 3.88% 5.25% 4.58% 6.19% 7.03% 9.51% Negative variations are in red. Annual Sales Forecast (Nov 2013 to Dec 2014) Percentage Change for the Total Number of Sales (forecast range) Monthly Annually Illinois Chicago Illinois Chicago Nov % -8.21% -5.23% -7.08% 5.35% 7.24% 10.83% 14.65% Dec % 1.37% 0.74% 1.00% 9.88% 13.36% 14.60% 19.76% Jan % % % % 9.17% 12.41% 14.15% 19.15% Feb % 1.18% 0.18% 0.24% 13.04% 17.64% 18.96% 25.65% Mar % 32.38% 20.71% 28.02% 9.20% 12.45% 12.23% 16.55% Apr % 10.42% 6.70% 9.07% 4.62% 6.25% 5.94% 8.04% May % 19.92% 11.58% 15.66% 2.76% 3.74% 1.13% 1.53% Jun % 4.51% 5.65% 7.65% 4.77% 6.46% 5.24% 7.09% Jul % 0.10% -2.79% -3.77% 1.50% 2.03% -2.83% -3.83% Aug % 2.02% 1.17% 1.59% 4.05% 5.48% -0.73% -0.99% Sep % % % % 5.66% 7.66% 5.36% 7.25% Oct % 0.23% -0.65% -0.88% 11.29% 15.27% 8.47% 11.46% Nov % -8.05% -4.76% -6.44% 11.43% 15.47% 9.03% 12.22% Dec % -0.75% 0.67% 0.90% 9.67% 13.09% 8.95% 12.11% Negative variations are in red.

6 Housing Price Forecasts, Annual Median Prices Forecast (Nov 2014 to Dec 2015) Summary of the Forecast for the Median Price (Illinois and Chicago PMSA) Illinois Chicago Illinois Chicago Nov-14 $157,215 $181,726 Nov-13 $145,000 $169,500 Dec-14 $156,696 $183,099 Dec-13 $148,500 $176,500 Jan-15 $147,586 $170,870 Jan-14 $135,800 $163,000 Feb-15 $145,287 $166,988 Feb-14 $132,000 $155,100 Mar-15 $158,500 $184,355 Mar-14 $148,000 $175,000 Apr-15 $167,215 $200,874 Apr-14 $155,000 $190,000 May-15 $178,375 $214,306 May-14 $167,500 $206,750 Jun-15 $192,169 $231,849 Jun-14 $179,900 $220,000 Jul-15 $190,143 $228,366 Jul-14 $179,000 $218,000 Aug-15 $187,215 $225,381 Aug-14 $175,000 $215,000 Sep-15 $175,706 $209,263 Sep-14 $161,750 $195,000 Oct-15 $171,751 $199,269 Oct-14 $159,000 $185,000 Nov-15 $168,243 $194,909 Dec-15 $169,878 $199,021 Annual Median Prices Forecast (Nov 2013 to Dec 2014) Summary of the Forecast for the Median Price (Illinois and Chicago) Illinois Chicago Illinois Chicago Nov-13 $152,756 $177,041 Nov-11 $135,000 $155,000 Dec-13 $149,444 $171,773 Dec-11 $132,000 $150,000 Jan-14 $145,742 $164,565 Jan-12 $125,000 $140,000 Feb-14 $142,699 $161,824 Feb-12 $124,850 $140,000 Mar-14 $154,000 $177,885 Mar-12 $135,000 $155,000 Apr-14 $161,267 $190,663 Apr-12 $146,000 $172,900 May-14 $170,267 $200,762 May-12 $155,000 $183,000 Jun-14 $182,155 $217,263 Jun-12 $170,000 $205,000 Jul-14 $177,743 $208,949 Jul-12 $169,900 $200,000 Aug-14 $176,355 $207,484 Aug-12 $167,000 $197,000 Sep-14 $168,226 $196,532 Sep-12 $158,000 $185,000 Oct-14 $162,666 $187,838 Oct-12 $153,000 $175,000 Nov-14 $163,196 $190,103 Dec-14 $160,079 $184,969

7 Housing Price Forecasts, Annual Forecasts for Regular Property Sales in Chicago PMSA (Nov 2014 to Dec 2015) Summary of the Forecasts for Regular Property Sales (Chicago PMSA) Sales Median Prices Forecasted Sales Annually Forecasted Price Annually Nov-14 6, % 14.60% $204, % Dec-14 6, % 9.98% $209, % Jan-15 5, % 29.51% $193, % Feb-15 5, % 34.38% $189, % Mar-15 6, % 25.99% $211, % Apr-15 7, % 15.60% $230, % May-15 8, % 9.33% $241, % Jun-15 9, % 1.60% $254, % Jul-15 9, % -1.90% $251, % Aug-15 9, % 4.87% $248, % Sep-15 7, % 5.76% $231, % Oct-15 7, % 7.13% $221, % Nov-15 7, % 7.91% $215, % Dec-15 7, % 7.88% $223, %

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