Nivesh Daily Currency

Transcription

1 Nivesh Daily Currency February 3, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Foreign Currency Update. Currency Pair Close % Change Dollar Index EURUSD GBPUSD JPYUSD * R= Resistance. S = Support USDINR February Expiry Option Update Closing. Options Close % Chg OI % OI Prev. OI % CE CE CE CE PE PE PE PE Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is positive move in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate ( 2 February 2016) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022)

2 Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR ( February Future) The Indian rupee extended fall against the dollar as overseas investors sold the local currency after selling stocks while yield on the new 10-year bond was set to post its biggest single-day gain in a month after the Reserve Bank of India said it will stay on disinflationary path. Technical Review USDINR witnessed 0.19% recovery and settled at In near term any rise towards is could attract selling pressure following to the double top formation on EOD chart which is yet favoring for weakness on every rise unless it gives a closing above levels. On the other hand, USDINR would need to trade above 68.60, in order to test and Recommendation : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss Important Factor: U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change EURINR ( February Future) Euro rose for the second straight trading day Tuesday tracking dollar weakness following the release of dismal US economic data. Euro's strength, the German unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in January, data released by the Federal Labour Agency showed Tuesday. The rate dropped to 6.2% in January from 6.3% the previous month, better than the 6.3% expected by economists. Technical Review: Daily Important Factor from Europe: German Final Services PMI EURINR witnessed 0.66% gain and after hitting a high of settled at Today, EURINR may show recovery rally towards and above following to the long bullish candle stick and favorable unemployment data. Recommendation/ View : LTP Buy around Target Stop loss

3 GBP ( February Future) Pound traded down Tuesday after a survey on United Kingdom's construction sector showed growth slipping to a 9-month low in January amid concerns over falling crude prices. UK construction sector experiences growth slowdown at the start of January data pointed to a renewed slowdown in output growth across the UK construction sector. Construction PMI dropped to 55.0, down from 57.8 in December. Construction firms report lowest business confidence since December Technical Review: GBPINR remained below the near term resistance of and after hitting a low of settled at A formation of Doji candle stick on EOD chart is yet indicating for bearishness in GBPINR, and any rise towards is expect to attract huge selling pressure. Important factor/data from U.K.: Services PMI Recommendation : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss JPYINR (February Future) Japanese Yen traded up for second straight day Tuesday as demand for safe-haven yen increased after oil prices tumbled on fear of lower demand following weak manufacturing data from US and China. Technical Review After witnessing a recovery rally towards 56.66, JPYINR tested and settled at levels. Near term trend is expect to remain negative and any rise towards could attract huge selling pressure for the target and bleow. Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell around Stop loss Target Important factor/data from Japan : BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

4 Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier U.K. Index for manufacturing rose to 52.9 in January from 52.1 in December. Economists had expected the index to fall to Euro zone s unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 10.4% from 10.5% in November. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since September Analysts had expected the jobless rate to hold steady at 10.5% in December. Euro zone PPI fell to a seasonally adjusted -0.8%, from -0.2% in the preceding month. Eurostat rate of unemployment fell to a seasonally adjusted 10.4%, from 10.5% in the preceding month. U.K. construction purchasing managers' index fell to a seasonally adjusted 55.0 last month from a reading of 57.8 in December. Economists had expected the index to decline to 57.5 in January. Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 11.4%, from 11.4% in the preceding quarter whose figure was revised up from 11.3%. Germany unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 6.2% in January from 6.3% a month earlier. Analysts had expected the jobless rate to hold steady at 6.3% last month. RBI kept CRR unchanged at 4% of NDTL, Repo rate under LAF unchanged at 6.75%; Reverse repo rate at 5.75%; MSF and bank rate at 7.75% The central bank kept its growth forecast unchanged at 7.4% for the fiscal year ending Mar 31, with a downside bias while expecting growth to pick up to 7.6% by the end of fiscal year ending March Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Wednesday said expectations of lower prices among firms and households are "slightly concerning" but the bank's mission to achieve 2% inflation is "unshaken. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact 8:00am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks :30am JPY Consumer Confidence Positive 1:45pm EUR Spanish Services PMI Negative 2:15pm EUR Italian Services PMI Negative 2:20pm EUR French Final Services PMI Neutral 2:25pm EUR German Final Services PMI Neutral 2:30pm EUR Final Services PMI Neutral 3:00pm GBP Services PMI Negative 3:30pm EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m -0.10% 0.00% Negative EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.40% -0.30% Positive 6:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 193K 257K Negative 8:15pm USD Final Services PMI Neutral 8:30pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Negative Impact: High Low Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Ticker News Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com *Dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com & ticker news. IndiaNivesh Research Nivesh Daily Currency

5 IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) / Fax: (022) research@indianivesh.in Website: Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to mail@indianivesh.in