Monthly Update. January 2014

Transcription

1 Monthly Update Politics On the 29 th of January, the President of the Republic of Serbia Mr. Tomislav Nikolic called for earlier Parliamentary elections for the 16 th of March 2014, in order to speed up economic reforms. After a positive evaluation of the European Commission that the Republic of Serbia has made a progress in political relations with Pristina, Serbian Head of team for negotiations with the EU, Tanja Miscevic said that the date for beginning of negotiations is not a Pyrrhic victory, but a great victory for the Republic of Serbia, which means a new credibility and a new understanding of Serbia. She pointed out that it is clear now that the first intergovernmental conference will be held on 21 First Deputy Prime Minister, Aleksandar Vucic, said that Serbia could reach full membership in the European Union in 2020 and that objective is hard but feasible. He pointed out that the Government have to speed up with economic reforms and fight against corruption. Fiscal Sector In December 2013, public debt of the Republic of Serbia increased from RSD 2,224.7bn (EUR 19.5bn) at the end of November 2013, to RSD 2,303.0bn (EUR 20.1bn) at the end of December, Central Government Public debt to GDP ratio was at the level of 61.2% at the end of December The major share of public debt is still in foreign currency out of which in EUR is 45.9%, USD 27.7%, RSD 20.3%, SDR 4.6%, CHF 0.9% and other 0.6% (GBP, JPY, DKK, SEC, NOK). Up to end of December 2013, Public Debt Administration of the Republic of Serbia managed to meet its obligations which amounted to RSD 499.6bn (EUR 4.4bn), out of which principal payments amounted to RSD 410.4bn (EUR 3.6bn), while interest and other costs were RSD 89.2bn (EUR 0.8bn). Vast majority of items repaid up to date belong to Government Securities issued on domestic market RSD 331.4bn (EUR 2.9bn) out of which principal payments were RSD 287.4bn (EUR 2.5bn) and interest payments were RSD 44.0bn (EUR 0.4bn). Obligations in respect of foreign creditors were repaid in amount of RSD 101.3bn (EUR 0.9bn), out of which principal RSD 65.3bn (EUR 0.6bn), while interest were RSD 36.0bn (EUR 0.3bn). Repayments in respect of London Club RSD 41.9bn (EUR 371.7mln) with principal payments RSD 38.3bn (EUR 339.4mln) and interest payments RSD 3.6bn (EUR 32.2mln), Paris Club RSD 12.2bn (EUR 108.2mln) with principal payments RSD 7.6bn (EUR 67.4mln) and interest payments RSD 4.6bn (EUR 40.8mln), Eurobond coupon payments RSD 19.0bn (USD 221.0mln), and International Bank for Research and Development RSD 10.3bn (EUR 89.5mln) with principal payments RSD 7.3bn (EUR 63.8mln) and interest payments RSD 3.0bn (EUR 25.7mln). Payments in respect of guarantees issued by the Government were RSD 29.2bn (EUR 255.1mln) out of which principal RSD 22.8bn (EUR 199.0mln), while interest were RSD 6.4bn (EUR 56.1mln). In order to service all obligations PDA received RSD 387.3bn (EUR 3.4bn) from domestic market out of which Government Securities issued in domestic currency amounted to RSD 299.2bn (EUR 2.6bn) while receiving from EUR denominated Economy Government Securities were RSD 88.1bn (EUR 0.8bn). Total receivings at the end of 2013, amounted to RSD 625.8bn. On 13 th of December, Parliament adopted Budget for the According to the Financing plan for 2014, total receivings will amount to RSD 662.3bn out of which receivings from Domestic Securities Market will amount to RSD 330.0bn. On 21 November 2013, the Republic of Serbia issued for the fifth time Eurobond on the international bond markets. Over 140 global investors expressed interest in new issuance of the Republic of Serbia. The demand was 5 times higher than initially planned amount that the Government offered, and over 2.5 times higher than the realized amount. The highest interest came from the investors from the US, UK, Denmark and other European countries. Eurobond Serbia 2018, maturing in 5 years, was issued in the amount of USD 1.0bn with the coupon of 5.875%. The investors realized yield of 6.125%. The Eurobond issue was conducted in accordance with the planned activities of the Government of the Republic of Serbia for financing state budget for 2013 and Fitch Ratings has downgraded Serbia s Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to B+ from BB-. The outlook is stable. The real GDP growth in the Q3 of 2013, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, amounted 3.7%. According to seasonally adjusted GDP data, the economic performance increased by 1.4% in the third quarter of 2013, as compared to the previous quarter. Observed by activities, in the third quarter of 2013, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, significant real growth in the gross value added was noted as follows: the section of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 20.5%, the section of information and communication 12.5%, the section of manufacturing 8.7% and the section of mining and quarrying 8.3%. Significant fall in the gross value added was recorded in the section of construction 26.0%, the section of transportation and storage 3.5% and the section of financial and insurance activities 2.7%. According to estimations, the overall economic activities in 2013, measured by GDP and presented in previous year prices, expressed real growth of 2.4% in relation to Chinese telecommunications equipment producer Huawei Technologies is interested in investing and expanding its operations in Serbia, local media reported. Foreign Direct Investments Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak during his official visit in Belgrade announced the new investment in the second phase of modernization of the NIS refineries. Novak said that the NIS has plans to invest EUR 1.5 bn in Serbia in following three years and added that the NIS Refinery in Pancevo is one of the best in Europe, which already has invested more than EUR 500 mln. NIS is majority owned by the Russian company Gazprom Neft - about 56 percent and the rest is owned by the Republic of Serbia and citizens. First Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, presented his expectation in interview for the Bloomberg News that the Mercedes Benz shall establish cooperation with at least one bus factory in Serbia in March Also, there are ongoing negotiations with the Italian chocolate manufacturer Ferrero related to investment in agriculture.

2 Real GDP growth % * Industrial product. Nov'13/ Nov'12 % CPI Dec'13/ Nov'13 Ann. % Macroeconomic Data Unemployment rate % Oct 2013 Current acc. Balance Dec. last 12 months mlneur % of GDP on 31 Dec, Y gov. bonds on 31 Dec, Y gov.bonds on 31 Dec, Y gov.bonds Currency units/usd 31 Dec Dec Dec 2013 Currency units/eur , % 5.465% 5.821% * Estimated value 2012 December 2013 **Foreign Debt (% GDP) 85,9% **Foreign Debt as of 30 Nov (% GDP) 77,6% 31 Dec 2012 Unemployment rate Oct ,4% Unemployment rate October ,1% Ɨ Budget deficit (% GDP) 6,7% *Ɨ Budget deficit (% GDP) 4,8% Inflation rate Ann. (%) 12,2% Inflation rate Ann. Dec (%) 2,2% Real GDP growth (%) -1,7% *GDP growth for 2013 (%) 2,6% Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia; National Bank of Serbia; Bloomberg; Ministry of Finance and Economy * Estimated value; **According to NBS methodology Foreign Debt consist of Public and Private sector debt; Ɨ General Government; Based on the Statistical Office data, consumer prices went up by 0.2% in December. After falling for seven months, y-o-y inflation rose to 2.2% in December, but stayed below the lower bound of the target tolerance band (4±1.5%). The current undershooting of the target is largely attributable to the fall in food prices (2.5% in 2013). This is indicated by the fact that y-o-y core inflation (CPI excluding food, energy, alcohol and cigarettes) measured 4.2% in December. The strongest contribution to inflation in 2013 came from administered prices (2.1 pp) which rose 10.4%. According to the National Bank of Serbia's estimate, in the coming period y-o-y inflation is likely to rise moderately and trend steadily closer towards the target (4%), driven by the growth in administered prices and the one-off effect of the forthcoming increase of the special VAT rate. Low food production costs and weak aggregate demand will continue to produce disinflationary pressures. The overall external trade in the Republic of Serbia for the period January November 2013 amounted to: - USD 32,017.9 million - which was a 16.8% increase compared to the same period 2012; - EUR 24,167.7 million - which was a 13.1% increase compared to the same period The value of exports amounted to USD 13,386.0 million, which was 30.6% increase when compared to the same period last year, while the value of imports amounted to USD 18,631.9 million, which was 8.5% increase relative to the same period last year. Expressed in Euros, the value of exports amounted to EUR 10,100.3 million, which was the increase of 26.4%, compared to the same period last year. The value of imports amounted to EUR 14,067.4 million, which was 5.2% increase when compared to the same period last year. The deficit amounted to USD 5,245.9 million, which was a decrease of 24.2% in relation to the same period last year. The deficit expressed in Euros amounted to 3,967.1 million, which was a decrease of 26.3% compared to the same period last year. The export - import ratio equaled 71.9% and was higher if compared to the same period last year when it was 58.6%. Expressed in Euros, the value of exports amounted to EUR 1,004.1 million, which was an increase of 21.6%, compared to the same month last year. The value of imports amounted to EUR 1,370.0 million, which was 8.3% increase when compared to the same month last year. Belgrade OverNight Index Average Belgrade Stock Exchange Indices % , ,0 850,0 650,0 450,0 250,0 Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Belex 15 index Belex line index

3 Currency, Interest Rates and FDI Key Policy Rates of National Bank of Serbia Current value Last change Date of last meeting Next board meeting Key policy rate - 2w repo 9.50% Deposit facility interest rate 7.00% Lending facility interest rate 12.00% Source: National bank of Serbia % National Bank of Serbia Interest Rates -0.50% In RSD Exchange Rates Key policy rate - 2w repo Lending facility interest rate Deposit facility interest rate EUR/RSD USD/RSD Source: National bank of Serbia NBS FX reserves amounted to EUR 10,444.5 million at end-september, covering M1 by 333 percent and more than seven months of imports of goods and services. The largest inflow to FX reserves during the month originated from the drawdown of an EIB loan (EUR 54.7 million). Other inflows came from the sale of euro-denominated RS securities in the domestic financial market (EUR 37.2 million) and bank allocations under FX reserve requirements (EUR 26.5 million, net). The largest outflow from FX reserves was due to the settlement of liabilities to foreign creditors (EUR million). Other outflows were registered on account of repayment of debt to the IMF (EUR 52.0 million) and payment of maturing euro-denominated RS securities (EUR 42.2 million). Net FX reserves, defined as FX reserves less banks required reserves and drawings from the IMF, came at EUR 6,779.0 million. Trading volume in the IFEM reached EUR 687 million, up by EUR 71.9 million on the month before. In the year to September, trading volumes in the IFEM amounted to EUR 7,243.9 million. The dinar depreciated against the euro in September by 0.2% in nominal terms and the NBS sold EUR 90 million in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) in order to ease excessive daily volatility of the exchange rate. The industrial production in the Republic of Serbia in November 2013, when compared to November 2012, increased by 4.2% and in relation to 2012 average, it increased by 13.9%. The industrial production in the period January November 2013, compared to the same period 2012, increased by 6.0% ,6% Foreign Direct Investments in Serbia in period 2008 December ,7% 3,1% 5,0% Source: National bank of Serbia 0,8% 2,0% December 2013 FDI (net), EUR million FDI (net), %GDP 642 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0%

4 In million EUR Public Debt Report Stock and Structure of Public Debt External debt - indirect liabilities Internal debt - indirect liabilities Currency structure External debt - direct liabilities Internal debt - direct liabilities Currency Amount in original currency Amount in RSD RSD 466,366,568, ,366,568,867 EUR 9,226,188,571 1,057,709,632,730 USD 7,675,557, ,055,271,110 CHF 225,687,200 21,112,405,643 SDR 832,888, ,624,179,794 Other * 13,142,829,705 Total 2,303,010,887,849 RSD 20,3% EUR 45,9% USD 27,7% * GBP, JPY, DKK, SEK, NOK Other * 0,6% SDR 4,6% CHF 0,9% DYNAMICS OF PUBLIC DEBT Date Internal Public Debt External Public Debt Monthly Change of Public Direct Liabilities Indirect Liabilities Direct Liabilities Indirect Liabilities Debt 31/12/ /01/ /02/ , , /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ In millions of EUR

5 In million EUR In million EUR 41,5% 41,0% 40,5% 40,0% 39,5% INTERNAL DEBT ANALYSIS Internal Public Debt/Total Public Debt Ratio 63,0% 62,0% 61,0% 60,0% EXTERNAL DEBT ANALYSIS External Public Debt/Total Public Debt Ratio 60,9% 39,0% 38,5% 38,0% 37,5% 39,1% 59,0% 58,0% 57,0% Internal Public Debt Dynamics External Public Debt Dynamics Direct liabilities Indirect liabilities Direct liabilities Indirect liabilities Internal Debt Currency Structure Extrenal debt Currency Structure 0,5% 7,6% 0,9% 1,5% 47,7% 51,8% 44,8% 45,2% RSD EUR USD EUR USD CHF SDR Other

6 In percentage In percentage 13,3% 12,8% 12,3% 11,8% 11,3% 10,8% 10,3% 9,8% 9,3% 8,8% Government Securities DOMESTIC MARKET OVERVIEW Last Primary Auctions Accepted Rates Average Accepted Rates at Primary Auctions 12,99% 14,5% 14,0% 13,33% 13,5% 13,23% 12,95% 13,0% 12,5% 11,89% 10,70% 12,0% 12,49% 10,50% 11,5% 11,0% 10,5% 10,27% 9,40% 9,09% 8,98% 10,0% 9,17% 9,29% 9,5% 9,0% 3M 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 3M 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y EUROBOND OVERVIEW Republic of Serbia Eurobond Tap Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch) Maturity: Coupon: 7.25% semi-annual *Size: USD 2.0bn **Re-offer yield: 6.625% Re-offer price: Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: bps Announcement date: Listing: London Stock Exchange *Primary auction USD 1,0bn ; Tap Issuance USD 1,0bn. **Tap Issuance re-offer yield. Republic of Serbia Eurobond Price/Yield Date Closing Price Monthly price Monthly yield 31/12/ % -2.3% 30/11/ % -1.0% 31/10/ % -0.4% 30/09/ % -8.6% 31/08/ % 4.6% 31/07/ % 0.8% 30/06/ % 22.3% 31/05/ % 17.2% 30/04/ % -15.2% 31/03/ % 1.4% 28/02/ % 11.7% 31/01/ % -2.9% 120 $ 118 $ 116 $ 114 $ 112 $ 110 $ 108 $ 106 $ 104 $ 102 $ 100 $ 98 $ 96 $ Price/ Graph - Serbia Eurobond ,80 7,30 6,80 6,30 5,80 5,30 4,80 4, bps 650 bps 625 bps 600 bps 575 bps 550 bps 525 bps 500 bps 475 bps 450 bps 425 bps Spread to benchmark Closing price 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate Source: Bloomberg US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 10Y

7 In percentage In percentage Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2017 Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch) Maturity: Coupon: 5.250% semi-annual Size: USD 750.0mln Re-offer yield: 5.450% Re-offer price: Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: bps Announcement date: Listing: London Stock Exchange Republic of Serbia Eurobond Price/Yield Date Closing Price Monthly price Monthly yield 31/12/ % -3.8% 30/11/ % -0.2% 31/10/ % 0.2% 30/09/ % -9.5% 31/08/ % 1.0% 31/07/ % 0.7% 30/06/ % 22.7% 31/05/ % 18.9% 30/04/ % -13.3% 31/03/ % -1.8% 28/02/ % 13.4% 31/01/ % -6.8% Price/ Graph - Serbia Eurobond ,0 $ 107,0 $ 106,0 $ 105,0 $ 104,0 $ 103,0 $ 102,0 $ 101,0 $ 100,0 $ 99,0 $ 98,0 $ 97,0 $ 96,0 $ 95,0 $ 6,50 6,20 5,90 5,60 5,30 5,00 4,70 4,40 4,10 3,80 3,50 Closing price 510 bps 490 bps 470 bps 450 bps 430 bps 410 bps 390 bps 370 bps 350 bps 330 bps 310 bps 290 bps Spread to benchmark 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate 270 bps US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 3Y Source: Bloomberg

8 In percentage In percentage Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2020 Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch) Maturity: Coupon: 4.875% semi-annual Size: USD 1.5bn Re-offer yield: 5.150% Re-offer price: Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: bps Announcement date: Listing: London Stock Exchange Republic of Serbia Eurobond Price/Yield Date Closing Price Monthly price Monthly yield 31/12/ % -3.8% 30/11/ % 2.5% 31/10/ % -3.2% 30/09/ % -8.8% 31/08/ % 5.3% 31/07/ % 1.5% 30/06/ % 22.9% 31/05/ % 17.3% 30/04/ % -14.3% 31/03/ % -2.8% 107,0 $ 105,0 $ 103,0 $ 101,0 $ 99,0 $ Price/ Graph - Serbia Eurobond ,50 7,00 6,50 6,00 97,0 $ 95,0 $ 93,0 $ 91,0 $ 89,0 $ 5,50 5,00 4,50 4,00 Closing price Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate 480 bps 450 bps 420 bps 390 bps 360 bps 330 bps 300 bps 270 bps 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 6Y Source: Bloomberg

9 In percentage In percentage Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2018 Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch); B1(Moody s) Maturity: Coupon: % semi-annual Size: USD 1.0bn Re-offer yield: 6.125% Re-offer price: Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: bps Announcement date: Listing: London Stock Exchange Republic of Serbia Eurobond Price/Yield Date Closing Price Monthly price Monthly yield 31/12/ % -2.6% 29/11/ Price/ Graph - Serbia Eurobond ,0 $ 103,5 $ 103,0 $ 5,80 5,60 102,5 $ 102,0 $ 101,5 $ 101,0 $ 100,5 $ 100,0 $ 99,5 $ 99,0 $ 5,40 5,20 5,00 4,80 4,60 Closing price 450 bps Spread to Benchmark 6,0 Spread to US Dollar Swap Interest rate 430 bps 5,5 5,0 410 bps 4,5 390 bps 370 bps 4,0 3,5 3,0 350 bps 330 bps 2,5 2,0 1,5 310 bps 290 bps 1,0 0,5 0,0 270 bps US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 5Y

10 In percentage In percentage AMORTIZING BOND LONDON CLUB 2024 OVERVIEW Amortizing bond - London Club 2024 Auction Date Maturity Date Par Value Market value Coupon % 01/10/ /11/2024 1,080,000, ,000, % Price/Yield Date Closing Price Monthly price Monthly yield 31/12/ % -0.3% 30/11/ % -0.7% 31/10/ % -0.9% 30/09/ % -2.1% 31/08/ % 2.6% 31/07/ % 2.9% 30/06/ % 3.4% 31/05/ % 0.9% 30/04/ % -2.5% 31/03/ % 0.2% 28/02/ % 1.1% 31/01/ % 1.8% Price/ Graph Amortizing Bond - Serbia London Club ,0 $ 102,0 $ 101,0 $ 100,0 $ 99,0 $ 98,0 $ 97,0 $ 96,0 $ 95,0 $ 94,0 $ 7,40 7,30 7,20 7,10 7,00 6,90 6,80 6,70 6,60 6,50 6,40 6,30 Spread to benchmark Closing price Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate 675 bps 650 bps 625 bps 600 bps 575 bps 550 bps 525 bps 500 bps 475 bps 450 bps 425 bps 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 Source: Bloomberg US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 10Y