Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined
|
|
- Lee Goodman
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 February 2016 Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined In our view, the uncertainty in financial markets and rising risk of a systemic crisis is likely to keep the Fed from hiking before markets have settled down. We now expect the Fed to keep on hold until the September meeting, as we believe it will take some time before the current high uncertainty on the outlook will clear. Tighter financial conditions set to keep Fed on hold We anticipate the Fed will deliver three hikes in We think the Fed will use the upcoming March FOMC meeting to signal a lower trajectory for the Fed funds rate and state that it is on hold for now. No hike before the fog has cleared We believe the current financial market jitters will keep the Fed sidelined at the coming FOMC meetings. Although the US labour market is still in good shape, highlighted by the January employment report, the outlook is clouded by the recent tightening in financial conditions and the rising risk of a global systemic crisis (see also Market Turmoil, Policy Responses and Market Implications, 12 February). In the FOMC statement from the January policy meeting, the Fed chose to remove its risk bias and send a signal to the public that uncertainty on the outlook was unusually high. Since then, uncertainty has only risen. With core inflation running well below the Fed s 2% target, both survey-based and market inflation expectations trending lower and wage inflation only modestly higher, the Fed has room to be patient with the hiking cycle. We believe that the FOMC will use the coming FOMC meeting on 16 March to revise the dots lower, likely signalling two or three hikes this year, and state that it is on hold until the fog has cleared. Our base case is that the current panic in markets does not develop into a systemic financial crisis. However, risks have risen and we believe the current tightening of financial conditions will have negative spillover effects on global growth. Before moving along with the hiking cycle, we believe the Fed will need to be more confident that inflation is heading in the right direction and that GDP growth will run above potential. As a consequence and together with the subdued core inflation, inflation expectations trending down and weaker-than-expected data we have changed our Fed call and now expect only one hike this year, most likely in September (previously three hikes this year). In H2 16, when the headwind from tighter financial conditions is fading, we expect the Fed s focus to return to the fundamentals of the US economy and, in particular, the Phillips curve. We expect growth to pick up gradually, driven by solid private consumption growth and a turn in investments, which should give way to continued, although more moderate, job growth. The tighter labour market should lead to higher wage inflation supporting a continued hiking cycle with three additional in 2017 (previously four hikes next year). Source: Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg Survey based inflation expectations trending lower Source: NY Fed, Michigan, Federal Reserve Fed sees the world through the Phillips curve Senior Analyst Signe Roed-Frederiksen sroe@danskebank.dk Analyst Mikael Olai Milhøj milh@danskebank.dk Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 5 of this report.
2 Yellen did not want to jump to premature conclusions Fed Chair Janet Yellen was not as soft as expected yesterday when she testified before the Financial Services Committee and, in reality, we got only a little bit of news compared with the FOMC meeting statement from January. She confirmed that, although the Fed takes financial conditions into account, it sees the world mainly through the Phillips curve. She noticed that employment is increasing and wage growth has begun to pick up. On the financial market turmoil, she said that she does not want to jump to premature conclusions and that we will get more information when FOMC members update their projections in connection with the March meeting. Our interpretation of the January FOMC statement was that the Fed will skip March, as it will not risk tightening too much, too quickly. Since the January meeting, financial stress has increased and we expect the Fed to strike a much softer tone at the March FOMC meeting. Tighter financial conditions might do the job for the Fed As Yellen mentioned in her semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday, the Fed is not insulated from the rest of the world. Global central banks are generally easing monetary policy, with the Swedish Riksbank the latest to cut the repo rate, by 15bp today, which is affecting financial conditions in the US as well. Relative to the rest of the world being on hold is actually quite hawkish, as other central banks are on an easing bias. The main channel of impact is through a stronger US dollar, which is restraining growth through lower exports and is putting downward pressure on inflation. In contrast, easier monetary policy globally is also keeping longer term interest rates in the US down, thereby stimulating economic growth. However, recent Fed speak suggests the first of these effects is dominant. If global monetary policy easing leads to a significantly stronger effective US dollar, this is likely to slow the pace of the US hiking cycle below what we forecast. Strong USD restraining growth Source: Federal Reserve See the next two pages for the Fed s chart book February
3 FOMC chart book Employment growth slowed in January but trend growth still seems solid Unemployment rate slightly below NAIRU Wage inflation is trending up but still subdued Fed puts much weight on the Phillips curve Unit labour costs indicate higher inflation Low market inflation expectations a reason to stay on hold Source: Federal Reserve of Philadelphia, Macrobond Financial, University of Michigan, Danske Bank Source: Federal Reserve of Philadelphia, Macrobond Financial, University of Michigan, Danske Bank Fed set to take the financial turmoil into account Strong USD puts a dampener on growth Source: Macrobond Financial Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Danske Bank 3 11 February
4 Large increase in high-yield bond spreads Financial conditions have tightened significantly Source: Bloomberg Source: Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve, Danske Bank Historically, the Fed has not increased the target range when the ISM composite is at the current level Private consumption main growth driver Note: Dark (light) shading indicates periods of tightening (easing) Source: ISM, Danske Bank Source: BEA 4 11 February
5 Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). The authors of the research report are Signe Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Analyst and Mikael Olai Milhøj, Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors on request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including a sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Date of first publication See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication. General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report February
6 The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission February
FOMC preview Fed set to keep door open for a June hike
Investment Research General Market Conditions 14 March 2016 FOMC preview Fed set to keep door open for a June hike We expect the Fed to keep the Fed funds target rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50% at this week
More informationFOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well
Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 January 2016 FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well As expected, the Fed funds target rate was unchanged at 0.25%-0.50%.
More informationUS Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016
Investment Research General Market Conditions 02 August 2016 US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016 Jobs report preview We
More informationRussia: Where to find new growth drivers?
Russia: Where to find new growth drivers? Sanna Kurronen Economist +38 4 68 369 sanna.kurronen@danskebank.com 14 February 213 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page of this report.
More informationEuropean Freight Forwarding Index
European Freight Forwarding Index 14 January 13 Erik Bergöö erbe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Søren Toft stof@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 53 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 12
More informationEuropean Freight Forwarding Index
European Freight Forwarding Index Volume development in January 14 Erik Bergöö erbe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Philip Levin phle@danskebank.dk +45 26 19 26 17 Important disclosures and certifications are
More informationResearch Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk
Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 May 2015 Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Meteorologists now agree that El Niño has arrived and project that it
More informationStrategy German engine in headwind
Investment Research General Market Conditions 9 October 2015 Strategy German engine in headwind German economic data have started to show weakness and, in our view, more softness is looming. This is because
More informationResearch Commodities Four key factors to drive the aluminium market
Investment Research 22 May 2014 Research Commodities Four key factors to drive the aluminium market Aluminium price to edge higher in the second half of the year The aluminium price seems to have landed
More informationAfrica in context. Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009, Area: World Bank 2008 GDP. Share ($Bn) (% of Total)
The Untold Story of the African Growth Miracle Lars Christensen Chief Analyst, Head of Emerging Markets Research +45 45 12 85 30 (direct) + 45 40 74 49 51 (mobile) larch@danskebank.dk March 2012 Africa
More informationStrategy Chinese FX policy confusion
Investment Research General Market Conditions 8 January 2016 Strategy Chinese FX policy confusion This year kicked off with global risk-off sentiment led by Chinese equities but also in Europe and the
More informationCIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering
CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering 19 December 2013 The art of tapering without spoiling markets (I) Final decision and first reaction Taper light, with strengthened forward guidance The Federal Open Market Committee
More informationNorges Bank Dilemma Too early to rule out monetary policy easing
Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 August 2016 Norges Bank Dilemma Too early to rule out monetary policy easing Inflation has returned as a key factor for Norges Bank s rate setting which
More informationHeimstaden Q1 16: Stable quarter with continued transactions
Investment Research 29 April 2016 Heimstaden 16: Stable quarter with continued transactions Heimstaden showed a stable operating performance in despite continued intense transaction activity. Leverage
More informationJernhusen Q1 16: Continued strong development
Investment Research 28 April 2016 Jernhusen Q1 16: Continued strong development In Q1 16, Jernhusen continued to demonstrate stable operating performance, with good growth in rental income and strong cost
More informationHeimstaden Q3 15: steady performance with moderate leverage
Investment Research 13 November 2015 Heimstaden Q3 15: steady performance with moderate leverage Heimstaden delivered a stable performance in Q3, with continued good growth thanks to earlier made acquisitions
More informationWeekly Credit Update
Investment Research General Market Conditions 24 July 2009 Weekly Credit Update Summary Another week of significant spread tightening Moody s set to downgrade a large number of Nordic banks Headlines from
More informationFX Forecast Update 15 July 2015
FX Forecast Update 15 July 2015 Calm after the storm Thomas Harr Global Head of FICC Research Stefan Mellin Jens Nærvig Pedersen Kristoffer Lomholt Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Analyst Morten Helt Christin
More informationA Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off
A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted
More informationYield Forecast Update Long bond yields bottoming out
Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 August 2014 Yield Forecast Update Long bond yields bottoming out Review Quick links The trend for lower long bond yields has continued among rising geopolitical
More informationInvestment Research General Market Conditions 08 October 2015
Investment Research General Market Conditions 08 October 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers German trade balance for August could attract some attention after weak numbers for both factory orders and industrial
More informationS&P 500 outlook: Close to peak for 2015
S&P 500 outlook: Close to peak for 2015 August 12, 2015 Markets and Products Analysis INVESTMENT PORTOFOLIO ANALYSIS DIVISION Important Disclaimer in page 2 1 Disclaimer Disclaimer: The information herein
More informationWhy ECB QE is Negative for Commodities. Investment Research & Advisory. Deltec International Group
Atul Lele alele@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4135 David Munoz dmunoz@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4106 David Frazer dfrazer@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4156 Why ECB QE is Negative for Commodities Recent ECB Quantitative
More informationInvestment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2015
Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers US retail sales is the main market mover today. We expect another solid increase in the core retail sales measure
More informationTIMING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES USING BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK SECTORS. Developed by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc.
TIMING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES USING BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK SECTORS Developed by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc. 5 4 6 7 3 8 3 1 2 Fig. 1 Introduction The business cycle goes through 4 major growth
More informationHousehold debt levels now higher than before the financial crisis 20 April 2016
Household debt levels now higher than before the financial crisis 2 April 216 Household debt is rising fast. Relative to incomes, household debt levels are now higher than the peaks reached prior to the
More informationCommodities not finding much traction despite USD weakness
Commodities not finding much traction despite USD weakness Commodities continued to show weakness into the second week of 2013 despite rising stock markets and a falling US dollar. Investors are generally
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of
More informationMonthly Economic Dashboard
RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves
More informationStatement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services
For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives
More informationFixed Income Asset Allocation
Fixed Income Asset Allocation j a n n e y fixed income strat e g y Our three-pronged approach to 2015 portfolio construction has run its course, with value today found in securitized products and preferreds.
More informationInterest Only Expiry. July 2013
Interest Only Expiry July 213 Regulation on Interest Only Regulation requires residential borrowers to amortise within 3 years even if the loan to value ratio is below the regulatory maximum of 8 percent
More informationTRADING GERMAN POWER BY USING A CLIMATE SPREAD SIGNAL
DATE 19/01/2012 TRADING GERMAN POWER BY USING A CLIMATE SPREAD SIGNAL Research Seminar THE BEHAVIOR OF CARBON PRICES HEC Energy & Finance Chair and CDC Climat Paris, 27 January 2012 Carine Hemery (33)
More informationScandi Markets. Fixed Income Markets. FX Markets
Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 January 2016 Danske Daily Market Movers Following the Fed meeting yesterday (see below) focus today will be on the weekly jobless claims. These have edged
More informationBond markets vote for global recovery
Bond markets vote for global recovery Weekly Market View 11 May 2015 1 % Euro area recovery, oil rebound lead to bond sell-off German bund yields recovered from record low levels, leading a surge in global
More informationFixed Income Market Comments
Strategy Fixed Income Weekly Fixed Income Market Comments Weaker economic data and comments from a couple of Federal Reserve Board Governors, who tend to not to speak often as the Federal Reserve District
More informationYield Forecast Update No bond sell-off this year
Investment Research General Market Conditions 16 September 216 Yield Forecast Update No bond sell-off this year The ECB disappointed the market last week. Many market participants had expected further
More informationInvestment Research General Market Conditions 09 October 2015
Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 October 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers It's a very thin calendar today with only tier-2 data. French industrial production is expected to rebound 0.6%
More informationBUY Target: 215p. Strategic impact: cross-selling. Financial impact: good value
UK Daily Letter 1 K3 Business Technology Group KBT : AIM : 144p BUY Target: 215p Bob Liao, CFA 44.20.7050.6654 bliao@canaccordgenuity.com COMPANY STATISTICS: 52-week Range: 0.82-1.50 Avg. Daily Vol. (000s):
More informationInvestment Research General Market Conditions 18 December 2015
Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 December 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers Following the recent very intense days with a rate hike in the US (Wednesday) and monetary policy meetings in Norway
More informationSecurities Finance: Fixed Income & Repo Market Update
MARKETS GROUP Securities Finance: Fixed Income & Repo Market Update Key Highlights from a Panel Discussion Fixed income and repo market participants are adapting to new regulations and fiscal realities
More informationHow Smaller Stocks May Offer Larger Returns
Strategic Advisory Solutions April 2015 How Smaller Stocks May Offer Larger Returns In an environment where the US continues to be the growth engine of the developed world, investors may find opportunity
More informationInvestment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2015
Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers With the US market closed due to Thanksgiving, today is set to be a relatively quiet day on the data front. At
More informationScandi Markets Ahead Inflation, positive flow factors for 10Y SGBs and new 11Y NGB
Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 March 2014 Scandi Markets Ahead Inflation, positive flow factors for 10Y SGBs and new 11Y NGB Factors such as index extension, pension flows and redemptions
More informationINVESTMENT CASE FULLY INTACT
Leifheit AG Q2 results due out on 12/08/2015 07/08/2015 INVESTMENT CASE FULLY INTACT Buy 60.00 EUR Close (06/08/2015) 47.68 EUR Bloomberg: LEI WKN: 646450 Sector Share price performance Consumer 52 week
More informationFIXED INCOME STRATEGY HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER, 2015
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER, 2015 IN BRIEF: The U.S. Fixed Income Markets During the third quarter, the U.S. economy showed continued progress coupled with a decline in the U.S. unemployment
More informationFixed Income Market Comments
Strategy Fixed Income Weekly Fixed Income Market Comments Yields moved higher last week as the final reading of second quarter economic growth (GDP) was higher than expected at 3.9% (forecast at 3.7%)
More informationSberbank Group s IFRS Results for 6 Months 2013. August 2013
Sberbank Group s IFRS Results for 6 Months 2013 August 2013 Summary of 6 Months 2013 performance: Income Statement Net profit reached RUB 174.5 bn (or RUB 7.95 per ordinary share), a 0.5% decrease on RUB
More informationThe U.S. Outlook and Monetary Policy. Esther L. George President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
The U.S. Outlook and Monetary Policy Esther L. George President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City February 2, 2016 Central Exchange Kansas City, Mo. The views expressed by
More informationCrafting a Forward Looking Investment Portfolio
BOURSE SECURITIES LIMITED February 15th, 2016 Crafting a Forward Looking Investment Portfolio This week, we at Bourse evaluate the investment considerations and opportunities having looked previously at
More informationBond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks
Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 1 christian@harbourasset.co.nz + 89 Global bond yields stabilised in July, as markets weighed up two opposing
More informationMBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow
More informationCountry trade view Italy. Trends in global trade
Country trade view Italy Trends in global trade Summary Italy is a significant player in world trade. In 2014, it was the eleventh-largest importer and the ninth-largest exporter in the world. Italy comprises
More informationEconomic Outlook for Europe and Finland
Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international
More informationFOMC FAQS COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC. December 14 2015. John Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS The Fed holds its eighth and final FOMC meeting of 2015 this Tuesday and Wednesday, December 15 16, 2015. As of Monday, December 14, 2015, the fed
More informationBond Market Insights October 10, 2014
Bond Market Insights October 10, 2014 by John Simms, CFA and Jerry Wiesner, CFA General Bond Market Treasury yields rose in September as prices fell. Yields in the belly of the curve (5- to 7-year maturities)
More informationPerspectives September
Perspectives September 2013 Quantitative Research Option Modeling for Leveraged Finance Part I Bjorn Flesaker Managing Director and Head of Quantitative Research Prudential Fixed Income Juan Suris Vice
More informationDO WE NEED MORE STORAGE IN EUROPE?
DO WE NEED MORE STORAGE IN EUROPE? 25-26 April 212 Dr Thierry Bros Phone: 33 ()1 58 98 11 7 Important Notice: The circumstances in which this publication has been produced are such that it is not appropriate
More informationMorgonmötet 16 augusti 2016
Trading Strategy Morgonmötet 16 augusti 2016 Claes Måhlén, +46 (0)8-46 345 35, clma02@handelsbanken.se Pierre Carlsson, +46 (0)8-46 346 17, pica01@handelsbanken.se Andreas Skogelid, +46 (0)8-701 56 80,
More informationTrading Strategy. 5 March, 2012. Eurosystem 101. Martin Enlund, +46 (0)8-46 346 33, maen12@handelsbanken.se
Trading Strategy 5 March, 2012 Eurosystem 101 Martin Enlund, +46 (0)8-46 346 33, maen12@handelsbanken.se Repos automatically boosts bank s deposits at the ECB 2 1) Normal times Before LTRO (interbank lending
More informationBrutal February hurts commodities.
Brutal February hurts commodities. After a solid January, most of the major commodities went into reverse during February, triggered by individual events within the different sectors but also some general
More informationPlease note the Weekly Market Commentary will be on hiatus until January 5, 2014.
Weekly Market Commentary: December 16, 2013 Will 2014 Bring An End to Central Bank Intervention? Please note the Weekly Market Commentary will be on hiatus until January 5, 2014. Economic Data - Previous
More informationDwelling prices, total. Apartment prices. House prices. Net wages
Macro Research Macro Research - The Estonian Economy 22 September, 215 The Estonian Economy Newsletter Risks at the housing market Growth of house prices one of the fastest in Europe House prices have
More informationMFA Economic Outlook. July 13, 2015. An analysis by McQueen Financial Advisors, Inc. July 13, 2015 HIGHLIGHTS
July 13, 2015 Charles N. McQueen charley@m-f-a.com Craig M. Sicilia craig@m-f-a.com Heather L. Ciurla heather@m-f-a.com MFA Economic Outlook July 13, 2015 Alicia M. Bradley alicia@m-f-a.com James G. Craven
More informationFixed Income Asset Allocation
Fixed Income Asset Allocation j a n n e y fixed income strat e g y While 2015 finished off with big spread widening in high yield, strong performance of our favorite sector, munis, overwhelmed losses in
More informationThe Merchant Securities FTSE 100. Hindsight II Note PRIVATE CLIENT ADVISORY
The Merchant Securities FTSE 100 Hindsight II Note Our first FTSE-100 Hindsight Note is now fully subscribed; however, as a result of exceptional investor demand we are launching the FTSE- 100 Hindsight
More informationEconomic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015
Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationNational Economic Indicators. September 28, 2015
National Economic Indicators September 8, Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Decomposition of Real
More informationYield Curve September 2004
Yield Curve Basics The yield curve, a graph that depicts the relationship between bond yields and maturities, is an important tool in fixed-income investing. Investors use the yield curve as a reference
More informationA strong year for retail bonds
A strong year for retail bonds The Orderbook for Retail Bonds (ORB) opened 1 February 2010, with the aim of promoting both a transparent secondary market in bonds for retail investors as well as developing
More informationMorgonmötet 20 mars 2015
Trading Strategy Morgonmötet 20 mars 2015 Claes Måhlén, +46 (0)8-46 345 35, clma02@handelsbanken.se Pierre Carlsson, +46 (0)8-46 346 17, pica01@handelsbanken.se Nyheter Grekland: Kommer att redovisa reformlista
More informationGlobal high yield: We believe it s still offering value December 2013
Global high yield: We believe it s still offering value December 2013 02 of 08 Global high yield: we believe it s still offering value Patrick Maldari, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager North American Fixed
More informationInvestment Research General Market Conditions 10 November 2015
Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 November 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers We do not expect any big changes to Norwegian CPI, see Scandi Markets. Market overview 07:30 1 day,% It s a quiet
More informationFOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016)
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: 1.8.20.1740 FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-201) FOREX MAJORS (USD) 2015 201 SPOT Q1a Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Canadian Dollar USD/CAD 1.27
More informationTrends and Technology A Capital Markets Perspective
EQUITY I RESEARCH Trends and Technology A Capital Markets Perspective RBC Capital Markets, LLC Jonathan Atkin (Analyst) (415) 633-8589 jonathan.atkin@rbccm.com January 2013 All values in U.S. dollars unless
More informationMonthly Economic Indicators And Charts
Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts September 15 Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Strategic and Corporate Planning Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized
More informationGreen Bonds presentation From Challenge to implementation. Christopher Flensborg January 2015
Green Bonds presentation From Challenge to implementation Christopher Flensborg January 2015 Contents 1 The Why s When it comes to value creation 2 The considerations when integrating 3 Who are active
More informationHigh yield bonds. US senior loans update. begin on page 4.
Chief Investment Office WM 20 March 2014 High yield bonds US senior loans update Barry McAlinden, CFA, strategist, UBS FS barry.mcalinden@ubs.com, +1 212 713 3261 Loan performance can best be characterized
More informationUpdate following the publication of the Bank of England Stress Test. 16 December 2014
Update following the publication of the Bank of England Stress Test 16 December 2014 Background Top 8 Banks Resilience Stress Tested by PRA following FPC recommendation in March 2013 Guidance for stress
More informationRenminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy
Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy If the recent weakness of the renminbi persists, it is likely to have a positive direct impact
More informationPNC Investment Perspective
The Inflation Debate Inflation can have a significant effect on the economy and the markets. Although inflation has not been an issue for some time, the rise in the Consumer Price Index earlier this year
More informationOptimizeRx OPRX. Buy. Platform Potential Continues to Grow $0.87 $4.00. Refer to the last two pages of this report for Disclosures
Nov 14, 2014 Healthcare OptimizeRx Platform Potential Continues to Grow Other OTC OPRX Buy Rating Unchanged Current Price $0.87 Target Price $4.00 Market Capitalization 20.32M Shares Outstanding 23.36M
More informationCEWE Stiftung & Co. KGaA
CEWE Stiftung & Co. KGaA Solid development - on track to reaching targets 12/05/2015 Hold 60.00 EUR Close (11/05/2015) 57.81 EUR Bloomberg: CWC WKN: 540390 Sector Share price performance Consumer 52 week
More informationeuromicron AG Corrections to financial statements Hold 14.00 EUR
euromicron AG Corrections to financial statements 24/03/2015 Hold 14.00 EUR Close (23/03/2015) Bloomberg: EUCA Sector Share price performance 14.15 EUR WKN: A1K030 Technology 52 week high 14.18 52 week
More informationU.S. Jobs Data Jumps Sharply After Earlier Downward Distortions: Can Markets Live With Good News?
U.S. Jobs Data Jumps Sharply After Earlier Downward Distortions: Can Markets Live With Good News? The U.S. reported 271,000 net new jobs in October, well above consensus expectations. This followed a much
More informationReal estate market outlook Asia Pacific
July 1 Real estate market outlook Asia Pacific Part of the M&G Group Executive summary Economic recovery continues to strengthen across the region, with export-led economies set to benefit the most Office
More informationInterest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices
Page 1 of 5 Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices June 16, 2015 (#2015-13) Douglas T. Breeden William W. Priest Professor of Finance, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University and Senior
More informationEUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the
More informationCANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth
93619 CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014 Canadian and U.S. auto sales have strengthened significantly from recession lows. Canadian new motor vehicle sales have surprised
More informationRating Action: Moody's places MBIA Insurance Corporation's B3 IFS rating on review for upgrade Global Credit Research - 14 Feb 2014
Rating Action: Moody's places MBIA Insurance Corporation's B3 IFS rating on review for upgrade Global Credit Research - 14 Feb 2014 New York, February 14, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has placed the
More informationPhillipCapital. Currency Report DAILY REPORT. Page 1 of 6. November 5, 2015. Open High Low Close % Cng OI USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR
PhillipCapital Currency Report Open High Low Close % Cng OI USDINR Nov 2015 65.8625 65.9100 65.7400 65.7775-0.24 1317085 Dec 2015 66.1950 66.2650 66.1000 66.1375-0.23 195040 Jan 2016 66.5200 66.6075 66.4500
More informationNew Issue: MOODY'S: CITY OF SAN DIEGO'S SUBORDINATED WATER REVENUE REFUNDING BONDS RATED Aa3
New Issue: MOODY'S: CITY OF SAN DIEGO'S SUBORDINATED WATER REVENUE REFUNDING BONDS RATED Aa3 Global Credit Research - 27 Mar 2012 SENIOR LIEN BONDS' Aa2 RATING AFFIRMED SAN DIEGO PUBLIC FACILITIES FINANCING
More informationPalangana expansion fully permitted; Burke Hollow receives disposal well permit. Associate: Michael Wichterle, MBA,
Equity Research Price (C$) Volume (M) May 27, 2015 Research Update URANIUM ENERGY CORP. Palangana expansion fully permitted; Burke Hollow receives disposal well permit EVENT Uranium Energy Corp. announced
More informationING International Trade Study Developments in global trade: from 1995 to 2017. United Kingdom
ING International Trade Study Developments in global trade: from 1995 to 2017 United Kingdom Executive summary The United Kingdom is expected to grow on average 1% in the coming years. This is relatively
More informationThrough the Snow, Job Market Plows Ahead
Through the Snow, Job Market Plows Ahead Douglas Porter Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets The Conference Board s consumer confidence report revealed that those reporting jobs hard to get fell yet again
More informationwww.standardandpoors.com/ratingsdirect 1
December 9, 2009 Research Update: Spain Outlook Revised To Negative On Rising Fiscal Deficits And Risks Posed By Macroeconomic Adjustment Primary Credit Analyst: Trevor Cullinan, London (44) 20-7176-7110;trevor_cullinan@standardandpoors.com
More informationFUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT THOMSON REUTERS LIPPER RESEARCH SERIES FIXED INCOME SUMMARY QUARTER-END ANALYSIS
FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT THOMSON REUTERS LIPPER RESEARCH SERIES FIXED INCOME SUMMARY QUARTER-END ANALYSIS MARCH 2016 Dovish Fed Sends Bond Funds Flying Higher EXECUTIVE SUMMARY When the Federal Reserve
More informationFX & MIFID ECB FX Contact Group
FX & MIFID ECB FX Contact Group Richard Haynes Fixed Income Sales & Trading Compliance Department Citigroup 21 November 2007 FX & MIFID Introduction MiFID Overview What FX instruments are within scope
More information