Economic Data. November 20, November 19, 2015

Transcription

1 Economic Data November 19, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 1.60% 0.10% -0.30% NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 1.30% 0.20% -0.20% JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Oct -0.20T -0.38T -0.36T JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Sep -0.20% 0.20% -0.20% CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Oct 4.16B 3.18B 3.05B EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Sep 29.4B 18.3B 17.7B GBP Retail Sales M/M Oct -0.60% -0.40% 1.90% GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Nov EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Sep -0.10% 0.20% -0.10% USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 14) 271K 272K 276K USD Philly Fed Survey Nov USD Leading Indicators Oct 0.60% 0.50% -0.20% USD Natural Gas Storage 15B 23B 49B Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous EUR German PPI M/M Oct -0.40% -0.20% -0.40% EUR German PPI Y/Y Oct -2.30% -2.00% -2.10% GBP Public Sector Borrowing (GBP) Oct 5.5B 8.6B CAD Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.20% 0.50% CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Sep -0.20% 0.00% CAD CPI M/M Oct 0.10% -0.20% CAD CPI Y/Y Oct 1.00% 1.00% CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Oct 0.20% 0.20% CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Oct 2.00% 2.10% EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov A

2 International Market Recap COMEX % Previous Close Open High Low Copper NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR Spread DEC5 JAN6 FEB6 MAR6 NOV DEC JAN FEB Indian Market Recap Copper Previous Close Open High Low % % Vol. Volume NOV FEB APR Change = -230 Spread FEB6 APR6 NOV FEB Nickel Previous Close Open High Low % % Vol. Volume NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR Change = 1421 Spread DEC5 JAN6 FEB6 MAR6 NOV DEC JAN FEB

3 London Copper started moving towards fresh six-year lows on Friday as traders and consumers continue to short metals that are linked to China's "old" manufacturing-led economy. Metals that supply China's worsening steel industry - Zinc and Nickel - have been worst hit as China transitions to a service led economy and away from heavy industry. London Nickel slumped to its weakest level in more than a decade on Friday, as traders shorted the metal used by China's struggling stainless steel industry, gripped by a wider downturn across industrial metals demand. In China, data on Tuesday showed October home prices edged up 0.1% from a year earlier, the first rise in 14 months, but most investors remain worried over the economy's overall health following several weak readings. Meanwhile, China's economy is moving in a reasonable range and will be kept running smoothly, Premier Li Keqiang said, according to the country's official government website. China will actively promote structural reforms and restructuring and strive to realise the economy's sustained, healthy long-term development, Li said. U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said commodity prices could drop sharply again as an adjustment in supplies from energy, metals and agricultural producers remains insufficient in the face of weaker demand from key consumers such as China. The Dollar weakened across the board on Thursday after rising for four straight sessions, as investors cashed in recent gains driven by widespread expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate increase next month. However, losses were limited after data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. fell in line with expectations last week. The Euro rallied considerably on Thursday to move above near seven month lows, as the timing of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and weak inflation projections from the European Central Bank remained in focus. Data from LME warehouse showed that Tin inventory were unchanged, while Copper, Aluminium, Lead, Nickel and Zinc inventories declined on Thursday. Data from SHFE warehouse showed that Copper, Aluminium and Nickel inventories rose last week, while Lead and Zinc inventories declined this week. MCX Copper and Nickel slumped on Thursday, tracking weak overseas prices. 3

4 LME Warehouse Stocks as on 19-Nov-2015 Metals Closing On Cancelled Delivered Delivered Stock Change Warrant In Out Copper 255, ,800 53,250 3,175 3,400 Aluminium 2,953,800-7,100 1,633,525 1,320,275-7,100 Lead 133, ,600 29, Nickel 415, , , ,092 Tin 5,295-4, Zinc 552,425-1, ,575 96,850-1,325 SHFE Official Stocks in MT Commodity 13-Nov Nov-15 % Aluminium 278, ,001 4, Copper 197, ,288 1, Lead 14,006 13, Zinc 177, ,433-2, Nickel 34,324 37,641 3, Commitment of Traders - 11/3/ /10/2015 Non-Commercial Commercial Non-Reportable Weekly Weekly Weekly Position Position Position Change Change Change Futures -27,428-15,650 31,569 13,595-4,141 2,055 and Options -27,412-15,690 31,480 13,578-4,068 2,112 and Options - Disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 4

5 LME Copper - (4635.5) MCX Copper November - (304.40) Trade Recommendations None. Outlook LME Copper prices could continue to trade lower. However, LME prices are oversold and could witness some short covering. Key support now is at A close below today could pull prices to Key resistance is at MCX Copper prices trade weak, tracking weak overseas prices. Support remains at A close below today could pull prices to 280. Resistance is at and However, MCX prices are oversold and could witness some short covering. 5

6 LME Nickel - ( ) MCX Nickel November - (589.50) Trade Recommendations None. Outlook LME Nickel prices could continue to trade lower. However, LME prices are oversold and could witness some short covering. Key support now is at Key resistance is at MCX Nickel prices trade weak, tracking weak overseas prices. Support is at A close below today could pull prices to 550 levels. Resistance is at However, MCX prices are oversold and could witness some short covering. 6

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