Measuring the Giant. (or, How Big is the Big One?) - Managing Natural Hazard Risk Before, During, & After Claims

Transcription

1 Measuring the Giant (or, How Big is the Big One?) - Managing Natural Hazard Risk Before, During, & After Claims Keith Porter, PE PhD Principal SPA Risk LLC Research Professor University of Colorado, Boulder May 14th 2015 The British Library Conference Centre British Library Conference Center 14 May SPA Risk

2 You already live with the giant 1 Exceedance rate, yr /250-year loss Loss, fraction of portfolio value 2 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

3 So let s start quantifying him... PROPERTY VULNERABILITY & THE IP VALUE OF LOSS DATA 5 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

4 Vulnerability Relationship between environmental input (like shaking) and loss (like repair cost) Damage factor Y f Y S =1g (y ) E[Y S a =s ] Vulnerability data can be valuable IP S a (1.0 sec, 5%) 6 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

5 Empirical vulnerability functions x = ground motion (windspeed,...) at property i y = loss at property i c = attributes of property i (age, material, height...) Wesson et al. (2004) 7 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

6 Empirical method: data to get Address or lat & lon (for shaking, windspeed,...) Replacement cost new by coverage Repair costs by coverage (better: Xactimate est.) Structural material Structural system (frame, shearwall,...) Number of stories Year built Occupancy (residential, etc.) Plans, photos of damage,... 8 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

7 Mean damage factor or COV Analytical vulnerability functions sample COV 0.75 Poor MDF 0.50 Typical Z Y X 0.25 Superior Z X Y MODE- 1 : (sec) Design several realistic specimens Estimate structural response, damage, & repair cost at many levels of shaking Combine them probabilistically Sa gm (1 sec, 5%), g 9 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

8 Analytical method: data to get Shaking (windspeed...) instrumental records Structural and architectural drawings Detailed costs (e.g., Xactimate) 10 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

9 Aside: analytical (multi-site) BI modeling 11 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

10 Sa (g) (Multi-site) red tagging X direction capacity spectrum Sd (in) Red tagging often doesn t contribute much to BI risk 12 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

11 Failure probability (Multi-site) equipment failure No battery restraints No spacers No bracing Best conditions Base acceleration, units of gravity 13 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

12 (Multi-site) operational failure Operations Fail Legend Event: something undesirable occurs Primary Facility Fails Backup Facility Fails 1 Basic event: an event whose probability is quantified without lower events Or gate: the event connected above occurs if any event connected below occurs And gate: the event connected above occurs if all events connected below occur Transfer symbol: tree continues elsewhere Red tagged Equipment Systems Fail Building Fire Data Processing Equipment Fails Building Support Systems Fail British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

13 Failure probability Failure probability (Multi-site) system failure Red tag probability Current conditions, correlated Current conditions, uncorrelated Mitigate generator equipment Mitigate all Current conditions, uncorrelated Current conditions, perfect correlation Mitigate tape silos Mitigate all Red tag probability (a) Peak ground acceleration (g) (c) Peak ground acceleration (g) Primary Backup 15 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

14 (Multi-site) BI risk As-is Fix these weak links* Get (5 yr) (5 yr) Operations 0.8% Generator equipment 0.3% Backup site 3.2% Generator equipment, fans, EQSL, computers, raised access floors, tape silos 0.1% Ops & backup 0.1% With periodic evaluation ~ British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

15 Probability of Collapse Expert opinion vulnerability Experts judge vulnerability We treat experts like data Useful when we lack data Inexpensive Long tradition of use EXP2 EXP3 EXP7 EXP9 EXP11 EXP12 EXP Second Spectral Acceleration (g) But: Underestimates uncertainty Least credible, verifiable 17 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

16 HOW BIG IS THE BIG ONE? SHAKEOUT 18 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

17 ShakeOut M7.8 hypothetical SoCal earthquake imagined in granular detail A science-based, communityoriented earthquake exercise 300 scientists, engineers, operators, and others created it 25 million people in 26 states, regions, countries participated in 2014 Pamphlets, reports, journal articles, reports, games, YouTube vids, etc. Google USGS SAFRR 19 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

18 To answer two questions 1. What could happen in a large earthquake near me? 2. How can I prepare for it? 20 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

19 Stakeholders wanted a scenario 1 outcome No probability An earthquake everyone should be ready for 21 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

20 150 year return period; 300 yr since last rupture Northridge 1994 over in 30 sec s ShakeOut rupture unzips SE to NW, taking 90 seconds; Shaking lasts >3 min. s in LA & Ventura 22 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

21 Fault offset Landers, California M earthquake; ~1 meter (3 feet) offset Wairarapa fault, New Zealand earthquake; ~18 meter (54 feet) right-lateral offset 23 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

22 Shaking Compare with Northridge Chino Hills earthquake: 50x 5000x smaller! Magnitude deaths $40 Minimal billion damage Bakersfield Los Angeles Palm Springs 24 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

23 Damage to the building stock 300,000 significantly damaged (1 in 16) Significant: repairs cost at least 10% of replacement cost 45,000 complete losses (1%) Most dangerous: Brick Older concrete Most numerous: Older wood Less dangerous: Steel buildings built before Long Beach, CA British Library Conference Center 14 May Northridge CA 25

24 Older reinforced concrete ShakeOut study by UCLA: 50 collapses 5,000 10,000 people in collapsed buildings 100 red tagged buildings 1994 Northridge British Library Conference Center 14 May Kobe 26

25 Woodframe buildings Most California housing is wood Extensive damage in past earthquakes Scenario: 175,000 wood buildings significantly damaged (1 in 25) 1992 Mendocino 1989 M7.1 Loma Prieta 5/2/83 M6.5 Coalinga 27 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

26 Highrise steelframe buildings Connections fractured in Northridge (1994) In Kobe (1995), 10s of steel buildings collapsed No US buildings have collapsed, but ShakeOut is longer, stronger, and richer in damaging motion than Northridge such buildings in study area 28 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

27 Highrise steelframe buildings Rupture-to-rafters analyses 5 collapses, stories, 200, ,000 sq ft, 1,000 occupants each 10 red tags, 20 yellow Expert panel: The possibility of some collapses is quite credible. Kobe, Japan 1995 Mexico City, British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

28 Electric power 10 experts from 5 agencies find: Immediate loss of power throughout region Collapse of some high-tension towers, damage to transformers on poles Generators offline for inspection Transmission lines & power plants LA, Riverside, & San Bernardino Counties: 30-50% of service restored in 24 hrs 75-90% restored in 3 days ~100% restored within 1-4 months British Library Conference Center 14 May San Fernando Earthquake 30

29 Water & sewer Older pipe susceptible to shaking, liquefaction,... Some LA pipe 100+ yr old Aqueducts, tunnels cross the fault several places Groundwater supply needs power, pumps, tanks, and other damageable equipment 1971 San Fernando Earthquake British Library Conference Center 14 May Northridge Earthquake 31

30 Water supply 19 reps from 8 agencies: Within 10 miles of fault & isolated areas: damage impairs supply for up to 6 months Throughout much of study area, 1/2 of customers lose service for up to 1 week Loss of power, damage to pumps, tanks, etc. In LA, Riverside, San Bernardino Counties, 5% of customers lose service 1-8 weeks 32 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

31 Deaths & injuries Study by UCLA: 50,000 injured (to ERs) 1,800 killed 900 from fires, 900 from shakerelated building and transportation damage Vs. 8,300 injured, 33 killed in 1994 Northridge Earthquake Up to 2/3 of hospital beds unavailable in some counties Evacuation of Sherra Cox, 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake Olive View Medical Center 1971 San Fernando earthquake 33 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

32 Fire following earthquake 2 largest peacetime conflagrations: 1906 SF, 1923 Tokyo because: Numerous ignitions Degraded fire-resistive building features Damaged water mains Saturated communications Traffic impacts More fires than firefighting capabilities 34 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

33 Fire following earthquake 1,600 ignitions requiring a fire engine 1,200 exceed capability of 1st engine Orange County & LA basin: dozens of large fires merge into conflagrations destroying 100s of blocks 200 million square feet burnt 133,000 single family dwellings Property loss: $65 billion No Santa Ana winds, not worst case 1989 Loma Prieta British Library Conference Center 14 May Northridge 35

34 Monetary bottom line Property Damage: $113 billion Business Interruption: $96 billion Pipeline (water, sewer, gas; $1.1b) Highway ($0.4b) Shake- Damaged Buildings ($32.7 billion) Shake- Damaged Contents ($10.6b) High-Rise ($2.2b) High-Rise Content ($0.7b) Ports ($1b) Gas ($0.8b) Non-High-Rise Buildings ($8 billion) High-Rise Buildings ($3.2b) Fire ($22.4b) Fire-Damaged Contents ($25b) Fire-Damaged Buildings ($40b) Water ($53b) Transportation ($0.5b) Power ($7.3b) 36 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

35 Important variables Demand surge could add 20% Fatalities are highly uncertain Few are insured; vast outmigration & long-term economic malaise are possible Seismic retrofit can save up to $8 per $1 spent, prevent loss of operations in critical facilities Above-code design & accelerated replacement of obsolete infrastructure are the long-term fixes 37 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

36 HOW BIG IS THE BIG ONE? ARKSTORM 38 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

37 AR: Atmospheric River British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015 Courtesy of James Done, NCAR 39

38 Great Floods in Santa Barbara Channel Year British Library Conference Center 14 May

39 The Floods 24 Dec Jan 1862: nearly unbroken rains 300% to 500% of normal precipitation in San Diego, Sacramento, and SF Central Valley flooded 300 miles x miles wide LA basin generally inundated San Gabriel & San Diego Rivers cut new paths to sea K Street Sacramento, looking east K Street Sacramento, looking east 41 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

40 ARkStorm Precipitation 42 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

41 Estimating Flooding VIC DFIRM PRECIPITATION RUNOFF RETURN PERIODS Rough estimates of Flooding (drawing from FEMA Flood Insurance maps) British Library Conference Center 14 May

42 Flood Exercise Map 44 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

43 Los Angeles & Orange Counties British Library Conference Center 14 May

44 Maximum wind speeds Winds reach 125 mph 60 mph winds at Golden Gate, enough to close but not damage it Buildings & other structures do face damages. 46 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

45 Highway damage: 100s of landslides $100,000,000s in damage Road closures of days to weeks 47 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

46 24% of buildings flooded Silicon Valley; SF Bayshore Sacramento Orange & Los Angeles Counties Stockton 48 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

47 Economics of the ARkStorm Property loss:....$350b Property loss from flood: % Demand surge:... 20% Business interruption loss:...$375b Loss versus ShakeOut:...3x Probability versus ShakeOut:...1x CA sectors and counties affected:...100% Fraction insured:...12% Long-term hit to the CA economy:...? Cost to enhance urban levees:...$25b? 49 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

48 HOW BIG IS THE BIG ONE? THE HAYWIRED SCENARIO 69 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

49 Code s surprising life-safety objective The International Building Code does not aim to provide earthquake-proof buildings. Its goal for most buildings is life safety limiting collapse probability to 1% in 50 years with some damage reduction where practical. 70 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

50 After the Big One International Building Code aims to control the risk of this But not this Both get this 71 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

51 After the Big One IBC does not aim to control this Which gets this 72 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

52 After the Big One This, as scary as it might seem, gets this 73 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

53 To reduce BI, get fast inspections 74 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

54 To reduce BI, get good inspectors 75 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

55 To reduce BI, get efficient inspections Google FEMA ROVER or ROVER ATC British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

56 To reduce BI, preplan inspections 77 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

57 New buildings in the Big One Let s call this impairment 78 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

58 New buildings in the Big One at ½ x code-mapped shaking Code implication Fraction impaired 79 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

59 New buildings in the Big One 60% impairment rate over 3,300 km 2 x 411 people/km million people 140,000 businesses 80 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

60 New buildings in the Big One 3,300 km people/km million people 140,000 businesses 8,000 km people/km million people 160,000 businesses 81 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

61 New buildings in the Big One 82 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

62 Other lessons of HayWired Old water pipe is California s Achilles heel Some lifeline operators have not thought about aftershocks Power failure could trap up to 25,000 people in 5,000 elevators Some telecoms are well prepared 8hr + batteries; generators on 90% of towers 83 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

63 DEMAND SURGE MAKES THE GIANT BIGGER 84 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

64 Evidence of demand surge Great storm of 1703 Reed thatching price up % 1886 Charleston earthquake Construction labor prices doubled 1974 Darwin cyclone Building costs doubled 86 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015

65 Demand surge evidence: Xactimate Olsen & Porter collected prices of 6 baskets of goods: (residential or commercial) x (material, labor, both) 53 US cities, quarterly for Atlantic hurricane seasons Number of storms & peak windspeed in each city 87 British Library Conference Center 14 May 2015