Understanding Earthquakes: Science, Monitoring & Impacts

Transcription

1 NATURAL HAZARDS MISSION AREA SAFRR Project: Science Application for Risk Reduction Understanding Earthquakes: Science, Monitoring & Impacts Dr. Erin R. Burkett Geophysicist U. S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Project 1 Natural Hazards: Earthquake Volcanic Eruption Landslide Flood Geomagnetic Storm Wildfire Tsunami Coastal Erosion

2 Disclosure I have nothing to disclose. 1 Natural Hazards: Earthquake Volcanic Eruption Landslide Flood Geomagnetic Storm Wildfire Tsunami Coastal Erosion

3 The SAFRR Project SAFRR: Science Application for Risk Reduction The mission of SAFRR is to innovate the application of hazard science for the safety, security, and economic well-being of the nation. 1 Natural Hazards: Earthquake Volcanic Eruption Landslide Flood Geomagnetic Storm Wildfire Tsunami Coastal Erosion

4 Objectives Discuss the science of earthquakes and associated risk in Southern California. Describe the physical, social, and mental impacts of earthquakes. Outline technologies and resources for reducing risk from earthquakes. 1 Natural Hazards: Earthquake Volcanic Eruption Landslide Flood Geomagnetic Storm Wildfire Tsunami Coastal Erosion

5 Origins of Earthquakes: Big Picture Driving Forces Plate Tectonics: heat escaping earth = convection = tectonic plate motions = earthquakes, mountains, volcanoes

6 Faults of CA Pacific plate moves NW relative to North American plate San Andreas Fault: largest but not the only one 1906 M7.8 ~5 cm/yr 1857 M7.9

7 Earthquake Science & Monitoring Earthquake fault rupture generates seismic waves that cause shaking. Seismometers/sensors monitor seismic wave (ground motion) activity.

8 Earthquakes: Monitoring monitoring/anss/ Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) for U.S., ~7000 stations CISN: California Integrated Seismic Network (CA region of ANSS), ~450 stations

9 Earthquake Monitoring Equipment Sump Pump Battery Power Control Telecomm Accelerometer Seismometer Data Logger

10 Recording Earthquakes Accelerometer EpiSensor Seismic appliance Q330 Seismographs: now electronic; used to be Drum Recorders

11 EEW: Electronics vs. Seismic Waves

12 Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) Modern seismic networks are fast enough to gather and process earthquake data and send alerts to EEW users before shaking arrives.

13 Why Others Have Early Warning Systems Mexico - 10,153 dead in Mexico City 1985 Japan - 6,434 dead in Kobe 1995 Taiwan - 2,415 dead in Chi Chi 1999 Turkey - 17,127 dead in Izmit 1999 China - 87,587 dead in Wenchuan 2008

14 Why EEW Technology is Useful Imagine everyday situations

15 Why EEW Technology is Useful ((( EARTHQUAKE! ))) An earthquake can make everyday situations hazardous

16 Why EEW Technology is Useful But if alerted

17 EEW: ShakeAlert ShakeAlert User Display:

18 EEW Fact Sheet USGS Fact Sheet available online Search ShakeAlert Fact Sheet or see SAFRR webpage

19 Earthquake Geology & Paleoseismology Field geologists analyze a crosssection (trench) of a fault Dates of and relationships between layers/ offsets provide evidence of past fault movements

20 Earthquake Geology & Paleoseismology Geologic evidence = southern San Andreas quakes every ~100 yrs!

21 Since the last SoCal Big One 1857: Fort Tejon quake, M7.9, population ~4,000 Now more than 16 million in LA area; >22 million in SoCal, plus complicated infrastructure & internet interdependencies!

22 ShakeOut Simulation: The next Big One ShakeOut Simulation of Shaking Intensity

23 Scenarios: Disasters Made Real The ShakeOut Scenario: the future Big One made tangible lays out possible impacts motivates & informs planning, preparedness, and mitigation efforts The Great ShakeOut earthquake drill/exercise, Drop, Cover, & Hold On, developed as a successful scenario outcome

24 The ShakeOut Scenario The possible Big One: an earthquake on the southernmost San Andreas Fault 180 mile rupture Magnitude seconds of fault rupture Shaking for over 2 minutes in many places SAFRR led a group of scientists, engineers, and others to create a realistic scenario of what could happen.

25 ShakeOut Scenario: Impacts Significant injuries (50,000), deaths (1800), damages ($213 billion, 300,000 buildings) Transportation: roads impassable due to damage, debris, landslides, fault rupture, gridlock, stranded commuters Full Report details Resources: Lifeline disruptions: critical water system damage (no water weeks to months), electricity & gas outages, phone systems overwhelmed Fires following earthquake Damaging aftershock sequences may occur for decades

26 Secondary Earthquake Phenomena Tsunamis Landslides Fires Liquefaction Aftershocks Flooding Tsunami: Underwater, Subduction Earthquake Liquefaction Christchurch, M

27 Photo: Arnold Genthe Photo: Edwin L. Harp Secondary Earthquake Phenomena Tsunamis Landslides Fires Liquefaction Aftershocks Flooding 1906 San Francisco earthquake-induced fires (Sacramento Street) 2001 El Salvador earthquake-induced landslide

28 ShakeOut Impacts: Fire Following San Bruno explosion (September 2010) Gas pipelines break => Fire, explosion

29 ShakeOut Impacts: Water Earthquakes => Flooding, supply disruption NBCNews.com: Water Main Break Floods UCLA Campus

30 Building Damage & Destruction FEMA Guidelines for code: 90% probability that the building will not collapse = 10% Collapse rate in code-compliant stock Red Tags without Collapse Northridge: about 230 collapses LA County: 2,290 Red Tags SF Marina in 1989: Red Tags, 4 collapses Yellow Tags Northridge LA County: 9,445 Yellow Tags Northridge LA County: 2,290 Red Tags 10 RED TAGS PER COLLAPSE 4 YELLOW TAGS PER RED TAG Analysis for ShakeOut Scenario courtesy of Keith Porter (UC Boulder, Engineering)

31 Impacts to Hospitals Hospitals: The ShakeOut Scenario Supplemental Study In the 1994 Northridge quake, several hospitals lost functionality: - building failure: non-ductile reinforced concrete - equipment failures - power outages; emergency power intermittently lost - water damage from rupture of interior water lines & rooftop tanks - patients evacuated; health care in parking lots - facility closure for months Damaged non-ductile reinforced concrete frame building at St. John s Hospital, Santa Monica Unrestrained patient records shelves. Unanchored nurse s station.

32 Environmental Health Impacts Environmental Contamination: Smoke, gases, other combustion products Releases of raw sewage Landslides & dusts containing the soil fungus C. Immitis. Hazardous chemicals released from damaged industrial facilities Toxicants in dusts and debris from building collapse Kobe, Japan (1995) Environmental Health Impacts: Short term increase in heart attacks, strokes, asthma likely Gastrointenstinal illnesses, skin infections Area not considered endemic for Valley Fever outbreak (e.g., 1994 Northridge) Long term impacts of chemical and toxicant exposures not well studied Concepcion, Chile (2010)

33 Transportation Disruption (ShakeOut) All railroads and freeways into Los Angeles cross the San Andreas Fault

34 Mental Health Challenges Fear of injury or death Separation from family; worry during loss of communication Horror of witnessing injury/death/damage Post-traumatic stress & grief Separation-anxiety in children Depression Loss of trust in safety & security of the world continued during aftershocks Research suggests that the long-term emotional consequences of a disaster are related to feelings of powerlessness and lack of control over forces bigger than oneself. The Risk

35 Earthquake Psychology Why Earthquakes Incite Fear: Unpredictable Uncontrollable (powerlessness) Dreadedness of outcome Not understood (origins or impacts) e.g., Risk Perception Paul Slovik Countermeasure: EEW; culture of readiness Acceptance & understanding: We live in earthquake country. Damage is controllable Death is rare; damage preventable Education & awareness The Risk

36 Earthquake Risk Many do not comprehend risk (fear > risk) Skiing accident (1 in 10,000) Lightning strike (1 in 83,930) Earthquake (~1 in 125,000) it s NOT just about dying

37 Earthquake Risk It s not the earthquake that kills It s objects & structures around us that are (preventable) threats.

38 Earthquake Risk Perception What risks are we comfortable living with?

39 Earthquake Risk Perception We often ignore risks we cannot see.

40 Earthquake Risk Perception Living with earth quakes means: understanding the science using technology & engineering to be prepared for one ANYtime... by accepting them as part of our culture

41 Earthquake Preparedness Consider what could happen in a big earthquake and what you can do now to reduce damage and recover quickly. Secure Your Space - Top heavy furniture - Water heaters - TVs & electronics - Vulnerable structures Store More Water - 1 gallon per person per day for at least 3 days and ideally for 2 weeks Whether at home, work, or school Have a Fire Extinguisher - Everyone must know proper use Establish a family or work emergency plan - Know contacts, where to meet Learn more at:

42 Disaster vs. Catastrophe When can an economy recover and when does it falter? The system fails when too many pieces of the system fail. Efforts must prevent the disaster from becoming a catastrophe.

43 Science(ShakeOut)-Informed Policy ShakeOut Scenario guided the development of a plan to increase City of LA s seismic resilience Addresses areas of seismic vulnerability: Pre-1980 buildings presenting unacceptable risk to lives of residents non-ductile reinforced concrete buildings Soft-first-story buildings Water system infrastructure Water for fire fighters Seismic resistant pipes Protected fault crossings for aqueducts Less dependence on imported water California aqueduct Communications infrastructure City of Los Angeles Mayor s Report Resilience By Design, informed through USGS collaboration.

44 USGS Earthquake Resources

45 Accessibility of Earthquake Resources Consideration of cultural and language barrier issues important in increasing earthquake awareness and preparedness. Earthquake information available in a number of languages through resources such as: ts/

46 Questions? Contact: or Resources (scenarios, videos, reports): Mountains courtesy of Earthquakes