HISTORICAL FLOODS:

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Aubrey Knight
10 years ago
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2 USGS Mission The USGS serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life. 2

loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water,

3 HISTORICAL FLOODS: Central Valley: flooding over about 300 miles long, miles wide LA Basin: reported as generally inundated San Gabriel & San Diego Rivers: cut new paths to sea Agua Mansa: the largest community between Los Angeles and New Mexico obliterated. Two Storms: 12 days separated the flood crest in Sacramento from the crest in Los Angeles. 3

new paths to sea Agua Mansa: the largest community between Los Angeles and New Mexico

4 PREHISTORIC MEGAFLOODS Varve dating in the Santa Barbara Basin by Arndt Schimmelmann, et. al., show the occurrence of megafloods around 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418 and A ~200-yr quasi-periodicity match the timing of supraregional climatic changes. The ~200-yr cycle of flooding was skipped only three times, and never twice in a row....we foresee the possibility for historically unprecedented flooding in southern California during the first half of this century. (Schimmelmann, 2003) 4

A ~200-yr quasi-periodicity match the timing of supraregional climatic changes.

5 CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS Climate Change Projections "Overall [in an evaluation of projections by three different Global Climate Models under a rapidly increasing greenhouse-gas emissions scenario], projections for California tend towards larger storm totals and more frequent extreme-precipitation events." - Das, T., Dettinger, M., Cayan, D., and Hidalgo, H., 2011, Potential increase in floods in California s Sierra Nevada under future climate projections: Climatic Change, 33 p. 5

larger storm totals and more frequent extreme-precipitation events." - Das, T., Dettinger, M., Cayan, D., and Hidalgo, H.

6 Atmospheric River = AR

7 Atmospheric River = AR

8 ARs as a Hazard and Resource Dots: illustrate ARs as sources of West Coast hazards, comparable in some ways to southeast hurricanes. Shading: shows the amount of overall water supply that they provide in California. Ralph & Dettinger, BAMS 2012

9 Dec 24, 1861 Jan 21, 1862: Almost unbroken intense rains struck California Jan 1862: 420% of normal-january precipitation fell in Sacramento Jan 1862: Major flood in NorCal (including Sacramento) Jan 1862: 300% of normal-january precipitation fell in San Diego Jan 1862: Major flood in SoCal (including Los Angeles and Orange County)

in NorCal (including Sacramento) Jan 1862: 300% of normal-january precipitation

11 <3 ft 3-10 ft ft <3 ft 11

12 $725 Billion in Damages Property Damage: Exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand Surge: Labor rates and repair costs could increase property losses by 20 percent. Damage and Losses: Agricultural losses and costs to repair lifelines, drain flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides brings total to $400 billion. Lifeline Damage: Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Business Interruption: Costs reach $325 billion in addition to the earlier $400 billion. Total: ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly three times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors.

Damage and Losses: Agricultural losses and costs to repair lifelines, drain flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides brings total to $400 billion.

13 POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS Agricultural fields Agricultural chemicals Animal feeding operations (dairies, cattle, swine, poultry feedlots) Waste water treatment Drinking water treatment Residential, urban, sources Oil refineries, other energy production facilities Oil / gas wells, pipelines Chemical /industrial facilities Hazardous waste storage, landfills Municipal landfills Mining, mineral processing sites Naturally hazardous rocks, soils (ie, asbestos-containing, acidgenerating, pathogen-containing) Infectious diseases

facilities Oil / gas wells, pipelines Chemical /industrial facilities Hazardous waste storage, landfills Municipal landfills Mining,

14 ARkStorm Exceeds California Earthquake Scenarios Region Last Major Earthquake Mean Recurrence Interval (yr) Southern California Northern California 1690 S San Andreas 1857 C-S San Andreas 1868 Hayward 1906 N San Andreas Economic Losses Insured Losses >$150 bn 3 $40 bn 3 >$200 bn1 $30 bn >200 6 >$150 bn 6 >$50 bn 7 >$165 bn4 <$30 bn5 1 Shakeout Scenario USGS, CatUpdate for Shakeout Earthquake Scenario Mw7.8 RMS, Fort Tejon Earthquake: 150-Year Retrospective RMS, Hayward Alliance, EERI, Hayward Earthquake: 140-year Retrospective RMS, Repeat of the 1906 Earthquake, EERI AIR Worldwide, 2006; RMS, 2006 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP

bn5 1 Shakeout Scenario USGS, 2008 2 CatUpdate for Shakeout Earthquake Scenario Mw7.

15 ARkStorm compared to Katrina Gross State Product Direct Damage (%GSP) Total Losses Katrina (Louisiana) $168.2 bn (2005) >$70 bn (42)% >$100 bn (60%) ARkStorm (California) $1,891.4 bn (2009) $400 bn (21%) $1000 bn (53%) Laurie Johnson PhD AICP

16 STEPS ON THE PATH TO RESILIENCE ShakeOut Exercise: 19 Million Globally in 2012 Storm Scaling: R-Cat (Ralph & Dettinger, 2012) USGS CoSMoS and CA Landslide Susceptibility Map Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project: SAFRR 21 st Century Western Observing System: WSWC #332 US Navy and NASA: 2011 ARkStorm: Ventura & San Diego County, 2012 CalEMA NorCal Cat Flood Plan & Exercise: Summer 2013 March 2014 ShakeOut Exercise: 10/17/2013

SAFRR 21 st Century Western Observing System: WSWC #332 US Navy and NASA: 2011 ARkStorm: Ventura & San Diego

ARkStorm: California s Other Big One!

ARkStorm: California s Other Big One! Understanding the Impacts of Massive Winter Storms Mark Jackson Meteorologist in Charge NOAA/National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard What is ARkStorm? Emergency-preparedness