Minnesota State Plan Review Level 2 Hazus-MH 2.1 County Model for Flooding Dakota County Evaluation

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1 Overview Minnesota State Plan Review Level 2 Hazus-MH 2.1 County Model for Flooding Dakota County Evaluation Minnesota Homeland Security and Emergency Management (HSEM) is responsible for supporting activities that can prevent or reduce the significant losses that result from disasters. Successful mitigation activities are based on careful assessment of what may occur in the event of a disaster. Such planning often requires considerable expertise in order to evaluate the full scope of potential loss. In recognition of the importance of planning in mitigation activities, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has created Hazus-MH (Hazus US - Multi-Hazard) a powerful geographic information system (GIS)-based disaster mitigation tool that is coupled with Esri ArcGIS Desktop. This tool enables communities of all sizes to predict the estimated losses from floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and other related phenomena and to measure the impact of various mitigation practices that might help reduce those losses. HSEM has determined that Hazus-MH (Hazus Flood module) should play a critical role in the risk assessments in Minnesota. Level 1 Hazus-MH flood analysis was completed for each county in 2010 for the Statewide Hazard Mitigation Plan. In a Level 1 analysis, national general building stock databases are used to generate economic risk. A 100-year return period flood analysis for each Minnesota County was performed using Hazus-MH MR4. The bundled aggregated general building stock was updated to Dun & Bradstreet Building valuations were updated to R.S. Means The essential facility inventory (specifically Schools, Hospitals, Fire Stations and Police Stations) was updated using the best available statewide information. This project developed a risk assessment of floods for Dakota County as an example of how a Level 2 HAZUS-MH model will benefit the state plan review and the county that is being modeled. In a Level 2 analysis, the general building stock and essential facility data are updated with County level data. Dakota County was chosen for this analysis because of the County s complete and current parcel data and high resolution digital elevation models in addition to the County s willingness to partner with HSEM and provide in-kind support for this project. In addition to updating Dakota County flood risk assessment using the level 2 analysis, this project was an opportunity to evaluate the Level 1 vs. Level 2 analysis and explore Hazus-MH tools for extending the number of flood return periods analyzed. The objectives met in this project were the following: Test the methodology for incorporating parcel level data into the HAZUS-MH building stock for economic analysis in County flood risk analysis (Dakota parcel points) Use of POLIS Center, University of Indiana for technology transfer of HAZUS-MH level 2 analyses in Minnesota (CDMS and FME workshops) Test the ability of HAZUS-MH-FL to handle 10 meter DEM data for an entire county Evaluate the results of Hazus-MH 2.x to 1.x Compare results to DFIRM Level 1 results Evaluate DFIRM vs. HH results Page 1 of 20 July, 2012

2 Level 2 Essential Facilities We considered 3 sources for the Essential Facilities (schools, police stations, health care, and fire stations) in Hazus-MH. In the protocol established for the State Plan, the Care Facility (hzcareflty) will include nursing homes plus hospitals only. Dakota data included many more clinic type facilities. The three sources evaluated were: Essential Facilities (EF) resulting from the state data import to Hazus-MH in Statewide Plan, 2009, Essential Facilities packaged with Hazus- MH 2.1, released in 2011 and Essential Facilities obtained from Dakota County, 2011 from Governor s Council on Geographic Information Emergency Preparedness Committee (GCGIEPC) data. An evaluation of EFs revealed that Hazus-MH 2.1 release is grossly under-reporting MN EFs. The GCGIEPC data and EFs compiled for the 2010 Statewide plan were very comparable. We did not find metadata for GCGIEPC data. We found at least one current facility in the updated Essential Facility 2010 data that was not included in the GCGIEPC data. Because we could not prove greater accuracy for the GCGIEPC data, our decision was to use the Essential Facilities data already compiled and used to update Hazus-MH for the 2010 Plan. This required that the EFs were exported from Hazus-MH 1.0 MR4 and imported to Hazus-MH 2.1 for the current project. Level 2 Building Inventory Building Inventory is the foundation schema for the aggregated data referred to as Hazus General Building Stock (GBS). Two parcel datasets were obtained from Dakota County: the parcel tax databases ( parcels_dako polygons) and building location point ( parcels_dako_points points). Point records appear to be at electricity-use meter locations on the building footprints (not parcel centroids). However, every parcel has at least one point record (whether there is an improvement there or not), so parcels_dako_points records that do not represent buildings of value needed to be removed. The advantage to using the parcels_dako_points records was that multi-buildings per parcel were captured. The County Assessor s data extracted for this analysis included structural information on the building stock as well as building valuations. A summary of the two datasets (Table 1) and visual inspection (Figure 1) suggests that the parcels_dako_points feature class may provide the best source for the building inventory for Dakota County. Table 1. Dakota County Parcel Feature Class Comparison Feature Class Count Market Value Parcels_dako_points 150,807 $28,487,918,900 Parcels_dako 136,497 $26,616,468,100 Page 2 of 20 July, 2012

3 Figure 1. Parcels_dako polygons and parcels_dako_points for Dakota County MN Building counts were aggregated from the individual parcel records to the relevant census administrative boundaries to replace the bundled aggregated GBS in Hazus-MH 2.1 because it was assumed is that the assessor data is more accurate than the default Hazus-MH GBS. The building characteristic values shown in Table 2 are required to populate in the Hazus-MH GBS. Queries, calculations, and field mapping based on existing fields in the Dakota parcels data were made using tools in ArcGIS Data Interoperability (FME). The POLIS Center (UI) facilitated the mapping decisions and played a key role in the tool development in this step. Once the Dakota data were in the building inventory structure, they were then loaded into Hazus to replace the default aggregate data using FEMA CDMS. Table 2. Parcel data field mapping for Hazus-MH Analysis Field value in Hazus Field or mapping in dako_parcels_point Improvement value (market, appraised, sales, taxes EMV_BLDG (only use EMV_BLDG > 1000) ) Occupancy code (RES1, COM5, REL1 etc. ) USE1_DESC and USE2_DESC mapped to appropriate Hazus Occupancy Code (e.g. RESDIENTIAL = RES1) Area (usually in square feet) FIN_SQ_FT (if null, Occupancy Code multiplier is used to estimate) Foundation Type (Basement, Slab, Crawl ) DWELL TYPE mapped (e.g. S.FAM.RES = Crawl) Building Type (Wood, Steel, Concrete ) DWELL TYPE mapped (e.g. OFFICE = Masonry, WHSE = Steel) Building Quality (Code, Sub-Code, Poor, Good ) All default to MC meets code Year Built (1966, 1953, 2010 YEAR_BUILT, default to 1970 if null Number of Stories (1,2,3 ) HOME_STYLE Page 3 of 20 July, 2012

4 Further details on the replacement of the bundled aggregated GBS in Hazus-MH with Dakota County parcel and assessor data can be reviewed in the workflow corresponding to the Level 2 analysis (Appendix A). This entire document was not used in this project, but the workflow serves as a best practice that was consulted frequently. Level 2 Hazus-MH Hazard Analysis Flood analysis for Dakota County was performed using Hazus-MH 2.1, Flood Module released in Hazus-MH was used to generate the flood depth grid for a 100-year and 500-year return period calculated by clipping the USGS 10m DEM to the final DFIRM boundary (MN DNR 2011). Figure 1 depicts the flood boundary from the Hazus-MH analysis for the 100 and 500 year floods using the final DFIRMs clipped to the 10-meter DEM. A close-up of 100 and 500 year DFIRM sourced flood plain is shown in Figure 2. The DFIRM Database is derived from Flood Insurance Studies (FISs), previously published Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), flood hazard analyses performed in support of the FISs and FIRMs, and new mapping data, where available. The FISs and FIRMs are published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The specifications for the horizontal control of DFIRM data files are consistent with those required for mapping at a scale of 1:12,000 (per MN DNR metadata). Page 4 of 20 July, 2012

5 Figure yr and 500-yr Return Period DFIRMS in Dakota County, MN Page 5 of 20 July, 2012

6 Figure year and 500-yr Return Period DFIRM Boundary near Apple Valley Hazus-MH Hydrology and Hydraulics (H&H) methods were used to generate reaches and the 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500- year flood boundaries for comparison using the return period suite tools in Hazus-MH. The full suite of Hazus-MH generated flood depth grids were also calculated from the 10 meter DEM. The resulting suite of flood boundaries calculated using the Hazus-MH H&H tools on a 10-meter DEM are shown in Figure 3, with a close-up of the Hastings area in Figure 4. DFIRM boundaries are favorable to use if they are available because they consist of surveyed, calibrated flood boundaries. However, flood areas were generated, even for 100- and 500- year return periods using the H&H methods on 10 meter digital elevation models in Hazus-MH in order to make a consistent comparison of economic loss for all of the return periods. Figure 5 below compares a 100 year DFIRM boundary to the 100 year Hazus-MH H&H generated boundary. Hazus-MH generated flood areas tend to reach further up into the stream channel (often beyond a perennial stream course) and tend to be narrow than a field measured flood boundary. After our first attempts completing the suite of return periods, results were obtaining that did not reflect increasing damage at an increasing return period as expected. Hazus-MH technical support was consulted and a bug was detected and fixed in the suite tools. Our evaluation also revealed the importance of using the suite of return periods in order to compare multiple return periods because stream cross-sections are recalculated randomly with each new run (but not when a suite is selected). The comparisons between 100-yr DFIRM and 100-yr H&H, as well as between variable input grid resolutions, must also take this uncertainty into account. Page 6 of 20 July, 2012

7 Figure 4. Hazus-MH generated 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500- yr. Return Period Flood Boundaries Page 7 of 20 July, 2012

8 Figure 5. Hazus-MH generated 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500- yr. Return Period Flood Boundaries near Hastings, MN Figure 6. DFIRM and Hazus-MH Generated 100-yr Return Period Flood Boundaries Page 8 of 20 July, 2012

9 HAZUS-MH Aggregate Loss Analysis According to the Hazus-MH model data (2000 Census Bureau data), Dakota County is 570 square miles and contains 5,016 census blocks. The county contains over 131,000 households and has a total population of 355,904 people. The 2010 Census data was not integrated with Hazus-MH 2.1 at the time of this study. Using the building stock data available with Hazus-MH 2.1 (2011): There are an estimated 126,068 buildings in the region with a total building replacement value (excluding contents) of $32,013 million dollars (2006 dollars). Approximately 92.10% of the buildings (and 73.54% of the building value) are associated with residential housing. As explained earlier, the dako_parcel_points feature class is valuable to review the spatial relevance of the model outputs. However, Hazus-MH economic loss estimations are modeled for the data aggregated to the census block. Estimates using Dakota County specific data obtained from the parcel tax databases and building location point databases included structural information on the building stock, as well as building valuations. Building counts and structural information were aggregated from the individual parcel records to the relevant census administrative boundaries. The estimation of building numbers and building replacement value will vary with both the building stock used and the flood boundary source used. Table 3 shows the difference in building exposure and damages for the same flood boundary (100-yr return period DFIRM) using different building stock data. These results constitute the primary difference between the Level 1 and Level 2 analysis. The Level 2 results are expected to be more accurate and current, as they are based on actual building values supplied by the county. Table 3. Building Exposure and Estimated Economic Damages, Level 1 vs. Level 2 Analysis HAZUS-MH 1.4, Level 1 HAZUS-MH 2.1, Level 2 10 m DEM 10 m DEM 100-yr DFIRM Building stock Dun & Bradstreet yr DFIRM Dakota County Assessor s data and parcel points 2011 Building valuations R.S. Means 2006 Dakota County Assessor s data Total number of buildings 126, ,840 Flood Area (sq. meters) 143,326, ,525,919 Exposure region (Dakota County) $32,012,531,000 $30,381,418,000 Exposure scenario (100-yr RT flood area) $3,196,225,000 $3,766,931,000 Number of Buildings damaged Debris (tons) 4,718 10,728 Shelter (# people) 2,776 3,000 Total loss $139,330,000 $204,650,000 Page 9 of 20 July, 2012

10 Multiple Return Periods Hazus-MH was used to estimate the damages incurred for each return period. The total estimated number of damaged buildings, total building losses, and estimated total economic losses are shown in Tables 4 and 5. These comparisons were made for the 100 and 500 year return period floods to compare the DFIRM and the H&H generated flood areas (Table 4). Table 5 shows the suite of return periods which had to be calculated using the Hazus-MH Hydrology and Hydraulics methods. Table 4. Estimated Losses for 100- and 500-yr Return Period, H&H vs. DFIRM 10m DEM 100-yr DFIRM 100-yr H&H 500-yr DFIRM 500-yr H&H Number of Buildings damaged Debris (tons) Shelter (# people) Total loss Table 5. Estimated Losses for 10-, 25-, 50-, 100- and 500- yr. Return Periods, H&H Hazus-MH 2.1 Suite of Return Periods 10m DEM, H&H 500yr 100yr 50yr 25yr 10yr Number of Buildings damaged Debris (tons) Shelter (# people) Total loss $281,680,000 $239,660,000 $218,340,000 $197,610,000 $172,600,000 The reported building counts should be interpreted as degrees of loss rather than as exact numbers of buildings exposed to flooding. In the block aggregate depth model, buildings are assumed to be evenly distributed across the block, and losses are proportional to the proportion of the block inundated. The Hazus-MH model also incorporates the depth grid and structure information to estimate a degree of loss. Hazus-MH requires that a predetermined amount of square footage of a typical building sustain damage in order to produce a damaged building count. If only a minimal amount of damage to buildings is predicted, it is possible to see zero damaged building counts while also seeing economic losses. It is common that the losses estimated using the aggregate methods are overstated. Page 10 of 20 July, 2012

11 Figure 7. Dakota County Total Economic Loss Year Flood, H&H Page 11 of 20 July, 2012

12 Figure 8. Dakota County Total Economic Loss Year Flood, DFIRM Page 12 of 20 July, 2012

13 Table 6 below identifies census blocks at highest risk for economic loss based on the 100-year return period. Census blocks of concern should be reviewed in more detail to determine the actual percentage of facilities that fall within the flood hazard areas. For comparison, the total values of buildings actually in the flood boundary were summed. This value will always overestimate losses because total loss is assumed without depth of flood considerations. Table 6. Census Blocks reporting high loss value using H&H methods Census Block Number Loss value based on block aggregate - depth model Total building value based on parcel points $10,732,000 $3,977, $10,360,000 $7,020, $7,711,000 $4,063, $6,236,000 $7,601, $5,925,000 $8,278, $5,536,000 $11,339, $5,025,000 $12,554,900 Figures 9-13 below are examples of census blocks where some of the highest damages were reported using the suite of return periods with the Hazus-MH H&H model. Please note some of these are different areas than identified as highest loss areas using the DFIRMs. Figure 9. Census Block in Apple Valley. Page 13 of 20 July, 2012

14 Figure 10. Census Blocks and in South Hastings Figure 11. Census Block in Lakeville Page 14 of 20 July, 2012

15 Figure 12. Census Block in Burnsville Figure 13. Census Block in Rosemount Page 15 of 20 July, 2012

16 Figure 14. Census Block , Yankee Place, Blue Cross Blue Shield Building in Eagan Page 16 of 20 July, 2012

17 Hazus-MH Essential Facility Loss Analysis Essential facilities encounter the same impacts as other buildings within the flood boundary: structural failure, extensive water damage to the facility, and loss of facility functionality (i.e. a damaged police station will no longer be able to serve the community). The Hazus-MH analysis did not identify any essential facilities within Dakota County that may experience damages using the 100-year DFIRM. Using the Hazus-MH H&H model, the analysis identified 2 fire stations, and 15 schools that may be subject to flooding. A list of the essential facilities within Dakota County that may experience damages is included in Tables 7 and 8. Maps of the essential facilities potentially at risk to flooding are shown in Figures Table 7. Dakota County Essential Facility Loss Year Flood* Class Building Count At Least Moderate Damage At Least Substantial Damage Loss of Use Care Facilities Fire Stations Police Stations Schools Total *Multiple schools may be at one location Table 8. Dakota County Damaged Essential Facilities Name Type Flood Return Period (Yr.) Apple Valley Fire Department Station 2 Fire Station x x x x x McGuire Middle Grade Schools (Primary and High Schools) x x x x x TEA Alternative Default for School x x x x x Lakeville ECP Grade Schools (Primary and High Schools) x x x x Lakeville ESY Default for School x x x x Dakota Ridge Grade Schools (Primary and High Schools) x x x x School District Office Default for School x x x x Hastings Fire Department and Emergency Fire Station x x Rahncliff ALP Grade Schools (Primary and High Schools) x x Journey Montessori Academy Default for School x Lakeville TS Default for School x Lakeville ALC Grade Schools (Primary and High Schools) x Lakeville Careers Online Default for School x Page 17 of 20 July, 2012

18 Figure 15. Essential Facilities in H&H Calculated Flood Area, Apple Valley Figure 16. Essential Facilities in H&H Calculated Flood Area, Rosemount Page 18 of 20 July, 2012

19 Figure 17. Essential Facilities in H&H Calculated Flood Area, Lakeville Figure 18. Essential Facilities in H&H Calculated Flood Area, Eagan Page 19 of 20 July, 2012

20 Figure 19. Essential Facilities in H&H Calculated Flood Area, Hastings Page 20 of 20 July, 2012

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