Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14 th, 2011

Transcription

1 LNG terminal Montoir, France Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14 th, 2011 Jean - Marie DAUGER Executive Vice-President, in charge of the Global Gas & LNG Business line

2 DISCLAIMER Forward-Looking statements This communication contains forward-looking information and statements. These statements include financial projections, synergies, cost-savings and estimates, statements regarding plans, objectives, savings, expectations and benefits from the transactions and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Although the management of GDF SUEZ believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of GDF SUEZ securities are cautioned that forwardlooking information and statements are not guarantees of future performances and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of GDF SUEZ, that could cause actual results, developments, synergies, savings and benefits to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the public filings made by GDF SUEZ with the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), including those listed under Facteurs de Risque (Risk factors) section in the Document de Référence filed by GDF SUEZ with the AMF on 28 March 2011 (under no: D ). Investors and holders of GDF SUEZ securities should consider that the occurrence of some or all of these risks may have a material adverse effect on GDF SUEZ. Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

3 NATURAL GAS MARKETS: LONG TERM TRENDS AND SHORT TERM CONTEXT

4 Natural gas pricing structure UK and Netherlands Liquid market model Reference markets: TTF (NL); NBP (UK) Markets mainly with oil-indexed prices USA - Canada Liquid market gas to gas competition Reference market: Henry Hub South West Europe Market with an important part of oil-indexation Japan-South Korea- Taiwan Importing countries scheme (costs transferred to customers) Large majority of oil-indexation China - India - Base-load electricity production -Natural gas in competition with naphta, oil and mainly coal Natural gas liquid markets South America - Competition with all other energies Source : GDF SUEZ, 2011 Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

5 LNG prices: history and forwards Rising Japanese imports prices due to high oil prices and reliance on LNG spot market Fukushima In 2011, NBP prices increased due to the tightening LNG spot market post- Fukushima and the decreasing production of the gas fields in the North Sea region Significant spreads between Asia and Europe should remain on the ST Source: GDF SUEZ LNG Analysis, PFC Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

6 Oil gas prices disconnection in European markets Economic crisis inducing a decline in global gas demand (industry and power generation) -2,1% worldwide and -5,9% in EU for 2009 vs 2008 (1), same order of magnitude as for oil Additional gas production capacity New LNG projects on stream (Qatar, Yemen, ) over the period Unconventional gas in the US Consequences on European markets : decline of gas market prices in 2009 Increased liquidity of spot gas markets Price decoupling of European gas markets with oil indexed contracts (1) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

7 Ongoing negotiations to adapt our long term contracts to market conditions OBJECTIVES DYNAMIC MANAGEMENT OF OUR GAS BALANCE Maintain long term contracts as a core part of our supply portfolio Focus on contract competitiveness: price more in line with market conditions Adapt frequency of contract revision: shorter price review cycles Maximum use of LT contract flexibility to lower off-take Residual spread exposure for 2012: reduced to 70 TWh from 100 TWh in March adaptation of our hedging policy Europe to Asia diversions: 10 cargoes in H vs 4 in H MORE FLEXIBLE PRICING STRUCTURE TO ENSURE SUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVENESS OF GAS Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

8 Ongoing rebalancing of global gas market GLOBAL GAS & LNG BUSINESS LINE MARKET TIGHTENING DRIVEN BY FAST GROWING COUNTRIES AND FUKUSHIMA AFTERMATH Booming demand in Asia additional LNG demand in Japan to reach 8-11 bcm in 2011, bcm afterwards sharp increase in gas demand in China and India: ~x2 by 2015 (1) Latin America to become a significant player: gas demand in Brazil to increase by 76% by 2015 (1) IMPACT ON EUROPEAN MARKET TO BE PROGRESSIVE 2011: LNG imports to Europe still significant ; diversions to Asia increasing gas/oil spread sustained by high oil prices: 5-6/MWh over H1 price recovery: NBP +17% (2) gas demand in Europe returning to pre-crisis level Increase in gas demand by region in bcm (1) World gas demand: +12% by 2015 (1) Asia Middle East Latin America Rest of the world Increasing share of gas in power generation mix: earlier nuclear decommissioning (Germany) RETURN TO BALANCE EXPECTED BETWEEN 2013 AND 2014 (1) IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 New Policies Scenario, evolution of natural gas demand 2015 vs 2008 (2) NBP month ahead, change 7/1/11 vs 7/2/10 Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

9 FOCUS ON LNG

10 Recent evolution of LNG imports mtpa Asian LNG markets demand increasing in 2011 Global LNG Imports 109 mtpa in Jan-Jun mtpa in Jan-Jun 2011 (+13%) LNG Imports to liquid market remain important (almost doubled in the UK) Increased LNG imports from new markets Source: PFC Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

11 Mid-term LNG outlook: a market tightening in Global LNG Supply and demand Global LNG Supply and demand : major increase in LNG production from Qatar and impact of 2009 crisis The global LNG market is expected to tighten around , as global LNG demand recovers (particularly in Asia) Source: GDF SUEZ Analysis, CERA, Poten and PFC Energy, September 2011 Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

12 Regional Natural Gas Trade: strong domination of LNG over pipe gas in the coming years 2030: Asia, the first gas importer (+170 bcm market), followed by Europe (+80 bcm of which a great part in ) (1) 2030: Asia, the first LNG producer (1) Inter-regional pipe and LNG trade in the World (bcm) Pipe import LNG import CAGR 2% CAGR 4.4% Importing Europe increasingly in competition with Asia on the access to Russian & Caspian resources Source: GDF SUEZ Analysis (1) Source: GDF SUEZ Analysis Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

13 Development towards Asia UNCONTRACTED LNG DEMAND in the Pacific basin Source: CERA Global Redesign June 2011, PFC, GDF SUEZ analysis REBALANCING DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS PACIFIC Commercial development: Over 7mt LNG contracts September 2010 Kogas: October 2010 CNOOC: May 2011 Petronas: Pursuing opportunities in Asia Integrated E&P/LNG projects: Australia, Cameroon 2.5mt 2.6mt 2.5mt Increase position in Asian power generation: +25% of additional capacity in 2013 GDF SUEZ GLOBAL FOOTPRINT: A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

14 Best positioned in a quickly changing environment INCREASING CHALLENGES FOR THE ENERGY INDUSTRY More security requirements and capex for existing and future nuclear power plants Renewed attention on global security of energy supply More competition among the continents Risks of not meeting CO₂ targets as planned Upcoming recovery in power prices Increasing energy demand in emerging countries IN WHICH GDF SUEZ IS WELL POSITIONNED To take advantage of rebalanced power generation mix in favor of gas and renewables To respond to the increase in LNG demand in Asia and from recovery in gas prices through its flexible gas portfolio To capitalize on its demonstrated expertise across the whole nuclear value chain (from design and operation to waste management) To respond to the increasing energy demand in fast growing countries Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

15 LNG terminal Montoir, France Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14 th, 2011 APPENDICES

16 GDF SUEZ developing its presence in Asia Pacific An established presence in the region Power generation: strong foothold in Thailand, Indonesia, Australia and Singapore Power Environment LNG delivery or regas terminal LNG / E&P Energy Services ~ 11,000 employees 12.8 GW of installed capacity (1) 3.2 GW under construction (1) LNG: first cargoes delivered to China in 2010, significant commercial achievements in Korea and Malaysia Heating and cooling: first projects launched in China Environmental services: water and waste management services provided to more than 14 million people in China and strong presence in Australia Ambitious growth targets Capitalize on existing strongholds and continue expansion into Environmental services Increase positions in power generation: +25% of additional capacity in 2013 Pursue commercial development in LNG GDF SUEZ ALREADY HAS A PLATFORM FOR FUTURE GROWTH IN THE REGION (1) As of 6/30/2011, at 100% Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

17 A landmark partnership with CIC opening strong growth prospects for all businesses in the Group GDF SUEZ and China Investment Corporation CIC have signed a Memorandum of Understanding across all businesses, in particular in Asia Pacific related to: Joint investments Financing cooperation Commercial sponsorship Organization and Governance Cooperation on a non-exclusive basis Steering Committee co-chaired by GDF SUEZ and CIC CEOs Monitoring of existing co-operations and frequent review of opportunities FIRST MILESTONE Investment (1) by CIC in a 30% stake in Exploration & Production (2) to accelerate its development & Acquisition (1) by CIC of GDF SUEZ 10% stake in Atlantic LNG (Trinidad & Tobago) (1) Advanced exclusive talks (2) Excluding Elgin Franklin Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

18 Partnership with CIC: significant opportunities already identified by the partners NATURAL GAS Development of natural gas imports and LNG sales Underground natural gas storage and other infrastructures Floating LNG terminal projects Provalys LNG carrier POWER GENERATION Attractive pipeline of quality projects in Asia Projects open to equity investments by CIC and by Chinese energy groups Gas power plant, Glow, Thailand ENERGY EFFICIENCY SERVICES Involvement in the development of sustainable cities in China Pipeline of existing projects in Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore Sustainable city, Tianjin, China ENVIRONMENT Management of global water cycle for municipalities and corporates Waste collection and treatment Water treatment plant, Shanghai, China Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

19 Partnership with CIC to accelerate the development of E&P, a core activity for GDF SUEZ E&P: 2010 KEY FIGURES Sales EBITDA Annual production 2P reserves 2.2bn 1.4bn 51 mboe 815 mboe 76% gas 24% oil WORLDWIDE DEVELOPMENT IN NEW MARKETS KEY TRANSACTION TERMS (1) Acquisition of a 30% minority stake in GDF SUEZ E&P International by CIC for 2.3bn Governance: Board member allocation proportional to equity stake 6-year lock-up period and pre-emption right for GDF SUEZ in case of an exit by CIC Historical focus on Europe and North Africa Recent development effort in other regions, such as the Caspian Sea and Australia Further expansion opportunities in Asia, a promising market representing 2/3 of worldwide LNG demand (1) Exclusivity granted on the basis of these principles and subject to usual conditions precedent and consultation of employee representative bodies Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

20 GDF SUEZ diversified and dynamic portfolio: an adequate tool in a tough environment 1,198 TWh (1) 1,198 TWh (1) 420 SHORT TERM 576 NON REGULATED (key accounts, non regulated retail ) Others 3% 64 E&P PRODUCTION Unspecified (2) 19% Norway 21% 170 GAS TO POWER (INTERNAL) Gas to power - merchant Yemen 3% Libya 3% UK 2% Egypt 6% Trinidad &Tobago 5% LNG share ~30% Russia 14% Algeria 13 % Netherlands 11% THIRD PARTY LONG-TERM CONTRACTS Others Gas to power- PPA REGULATED Regulated sales (French retail & European regulated retail ) Others Long term gas supply Diversified supply portfolio provides flexibility Balanced sales portfolio reduces volume risks GDF SUEZ gas balance in TWh, end 2010 (1) 2010 data (Group share) consistent with accounting consolidation methods used by the Group (2) Purchases from Gas supplier ; origin unspecified Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,

21 Geographic split of gas usage in FY 2010 Other MEEA 6% 6% North America 9% 34% France Latin America Other Europe Hungary Romania Slovakia 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% Italy 7% The Netherlands 1,198 TWh 7% 3% 4% Germany UK 12% Belgium Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14th,