The Golden Age of Gas Supply Considerations

Transcription

1 The Golden Age of Gas Supply Considerations A golden age of gas requires plentiful supplies of gas (at the right price) This presentation looks at the volumes of gas likely to be available in the future Gas prices dealt with in a later presentation 1

2 Introduction Huge gas resource base identified Much of the easy gas developed Converting gas resources to reserves dependent on: Technology, logistics, leverage from liquids Midstream and downstream partner & investors/finance Presentation looks at: Where the gas is? Key suppliers and challenges for converting resources to reserves The impact of unconventionals Will future gas supplies be more complicated and/or difficult to develop? 2

3 WHERE IS THE GAS? 3

4 EIA View of Global Oil Base - (Gas as Bi-product) 4

5 EIA View of Global Gas Base 5

6 KEY GAS SUPPLIERS Which countries do you think have gained the most production in the last 10 years? Expect new winners in the next 10 years Which country has seen the sharpest fall? 6

7 Australia TCF Offshore, 10s TCF Onshore Prelude Ichthys Browse NWS Pilbara Wheatstone Gorgon Pluto Bonaparte Sunrise Darwin Timor Sea CBM gas in Queensland is dry, linked to wet Cooper Basin tight/shale gas & domestic market 7 Majority of offshore gas is liquids-rich, yet was stranded for 20+ years Some has high Carbon Dioxide content

8 CHINA GAS Largest Future Gas Market SUPPLY OPTIONS Domestic and unconventional CBM/Shale Gas Turkmen, Kazkahstan piped gas Russian piped gas via Manchuria, Altai? LNG imports Coal gasification still being studied 8

9 China Balancing Gas Resource Options Gas Consumption Forecast Profile, Target gas demand up to 337 Bcm p.a. 42 in China needs a diverse range of energy supplies Target of 10% of energy needs met from gas by 2020 Ambitious shale gas targets? LNG imports increase up to 26 Bcm p.a. in 2018 LNG Russia Imports 50 Myanmar Imports 170 Domestic Production Central Asia Imports Central Asian gas imports from Stans vital, Future Russian gas pipelines capable of supplying up to 40+ Bcm, price still an issue LNG imports mismatch to price level 9

10 Gazprom/Russia s Eastern Gas Promise 10+ TCM (350 TCF) Resource Base High cost (remote gas) (1), Krasnoyarsk (2) Kovytka Lower cost (less remote) (3) Chayanda, (4) Sakhalin I, III Source: Gazprom 10

11 Power of Siberia Pipeline or Pipedream? Power of Siberia Pipeline E. China export - Manchuria Vladivostok LNG Yakutsk, Irkutsk gas hubs (w. Helium) Sakhalin I & III LNG feed Competition Yamal LNG Rosneft/Exxon LNG plans FSU piped gas Source: Gazprom 11

12 Turkmenistan to Sell 6+ Bcf/day to China From Huge New Resource 12

13 Galkynysh World s 2 nd largest gas field (sour) Hydrocarbon Column 500m+, 100+ km long 500+ TCF GIIP No closure Mid-Case Area 2013 Evaluation Wells Currently Drilling Wells Already Drilled No closure 13

14 China s West- East Pipelines link foreign and domestic gas resources West-East I & II pipelines on stream III under construction Xinjiang to Fuzhou (Fujian) IV & V in design phase Imports underpin developing national gas grid Opportunities to monetize wide range of Chinese domestic gas resources Ordos, Xichuan tight gas Sour Sichuan gas CBM, Shale gas one day? 14

15 FPSO oil in Deep Water Source of low unit cost gas? Deep Water oil projects cost $5-7 Billion Pays for all wells, subsea systems, separation Gas is a bi-product, compressed and often re-injected Within 2-8 years, oil reservoirs need no more gas support Gas export solution frees up incremental oil production Potentially suited to FLNG option Relocate to other associated gas fields in time 15

16 Ghana - domestic and export gas? Jubilee on stream, gas to meet domestic market in 2014 TEN oil/condensate cycling project sanctioned However GNPC quotes reserves of 5 Tcf, plus as much as 15 Tcf of un-risked potential gas in deep water Tano Basin Gas master plan being formulated, will exports underwrite some of the investment? 16

17 Dry Gas in Deep Water E. Africa High rate, high pressure gas in deep water Dry gas can have its advantages. Scope for multi-phase flow to shore MMscfd big-bore wells, Minimal need for interventions, but only if no water ingress Proven Ormen Lange, D6, US Gulf, Nile Scope to meet domestic market obligations by simply opening chokes as demand materializes Option to use near shore compression platform for later life production 17

18 Anadarko Report TCF Resource (ENI Report a further 80 TCF) Source: Anadarko 18

19 THE IMPACT OF UNCONVENTIONALS 19

20 The North American Shale Gas Miracle Converted USA into a future gas exporter Already a net LPG exporter, with more to come 100 s TCF of gas resource, (? reserves) confirmed Production growing even at $3.50 Henry Hub! Similar technology reversing decades long oil production declines yields more Gas/LPG Canada set to follow, but as US gas market congested, need Pacific Coast exports Montney, Duvernay, Liard and more will become familiar names 20

21 Key Milestones in US Shale Gas Experience BCFD 30 Liquids-rich Marcellus Eagle Ford, W. Texas Rest of US Bakken (ND) Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) Haynesville (LA and TX) Woodford (OK) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Antrim (MI, IN, and OH) 0 01/01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/2013 Data sources EIA, GCA 21

22 The Marcellus ~10 Bcfd, Heading Toward 20 Bcfd Resource Includes Dry & Wet Gas, + Volatile Oil Vitrinite reflectance (Ro) isogradient map across the central Appalachian Basin (modified from Wrightstone, 2008) 22

23 Marcellus/Utica Wells & Locations Waiting on Wet Gas Processing Capacity Upstream investors not investing in NGL plant or trunk pipelines 23

24 US Rigs Moved to Oil Rich Plays 70%+ of US land rigs now targeting oil, or liquids rich gas plays Oil selling for 500% of Btu equiv. H. Hub gas price Spurring evaluation of many new tight oil targets Mature West Texas basins leading the way, best IRR Many oil wells will go to high GOR, becoming gas wells, but liquids can pay out well costs. Potential for international shale plays to skip dry gas option and go direct to tight oil 24

25 Drivers of Growth in US Shale Oil 25

26 Neuquen Tight Oil/Gas Source: Americas Petrogas 26

27 Key Source Rocks and the Conventional/Unconventional Plays Source: Americas Petrogas June

28 Neuquen Stacked Pay Targets Start with Oil, Wet Gas to Follow Source: Americas Petrogas - June

29 CONCLUSIONS Are Future Gas Supplies More Complex And Costly? 29

30 What are the Future Game Changing Gas Projects now that Cheap Gas has Gone? HIGH IOR/EOR projects Sour Gas with Cond Ultra deep HP HT Tight Dry Sour Gas MOSTLY DEVELOPED OR ALREADY DISCOVERED Offshore Sweet Non-assoc. Gas Liq. Rich Shale/Tight Gas (w/o LC)* With LC Deep water Dry Shale/Tight Gas (w/o LC)* With LC * LC = Learning Curve LOW Sweet associated Gas Sweet Non-assoc. Gas onshore CBM LOW Unit Cost How fast can we get up the learning curve? HIGH Source: GCA 30