Kjell Aleklett. Bergen Energiforum

Transcription

1 Bergen Energiforum Department of Earth Sciences Global Energy Systems Uppsala University, Sweden Blog: aleklett.wordpress.com

2 BBC November 9, 2011 Oil could hit $150 a barrel soon if investment in the Middle East and North Africa fails. "We are in the danger zone for the global economy at current levels," said IEA economist Fatih Birol. "Growth, prosperity and rising population will inevitably push up energy needs over the coming decades "But we cannot continue to rely on insecure and environmentally unsustainable uses of energy." One-month futures for Brent crude have averaged more than $100 a barrel for 2011 so far. In the longer term, the industry faces declining output from existing fields and rising demand from developing countries. "We have to find and develop two new Middle Easts, that's a tall order," said Mr Birol.

3 Fossil fuel and other energies Hydro, solar and wind as produces with 38% efficiency

4 Discovery of oil

5 Number and size of oilfields

6 Production of crude oil

7 World Energy Outlook 2008, WEO 2008 WEO 2008 was released on November 12 th. On page 51 the IEA states that the results of these analyses [prospects for oil and gas production] are intended to provide policy makers, investors and end users with a rigorous quantitative framework for assessing likely future trends in energy markets.

8 World Energy Outlook 2008

9 World Crude Oil Production from Fields in Production

10 World Energy Outlook 2008

11 New field developments in WEO 2008 Economical limits

12 Depletion rate of remaining recourses d δt = q t / (R 0 Q t ) where d δt = depletion rate of remaining recourses q t = production at time t R 0 = Initially present reserves or ultimate recoverable resources Q t = Cumulative up to time t

13 Depletion (d δ ) - fraction of production of remaining reserves The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour, Mikael Höök, Bengt Söderbergh, Kristofer Jakobsson,, Accepted by Natural Resources Research

14 Depletion (d δ ) North Sea

15 Production for fields to be developed with physical depletion (d δ ) limits

16 World Energy Outlook 2008

17 Production from Yet-to-find fields in WEO 2008, economical limits

18 World Energy Outlook 2010 crude oil Prediction for 2030 WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d WEO ? Mb/d Peak of the Oil Age K. Aleklett, M. Höök, K. Jakobsson, M. Lardelli, S. Snowden, B. Söderbergh Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 3, March 2010, Pages

19 The peak oil production in the North Sea was 6 Mb/d. 19 Mb/d is three North Seas

20 World Energy Outlook 2008

21 New future unconventional oil production

22 Summary of future oil production

23 WEO 2008 and Uppsala Oil Outlook 2008

24 The energy system The Planet

25 We need to extinguish the fossil fire!

26 IPCC

27

28 IPCC and Peak Oil

29 A peak in discoveries must give a peak in production!

30 UK Gas Production Peaked in 2000 The biggest gas producer of the EU. Became net importer of gas In The UK and the Netherlands produce 70% of EU gas output Sources: BP Statistical Review 2009, Söderbergh (2010) Bengt Söderbergh

31 Norway is becoming a mature gas producer 80% of Norway s initial reserves are concentrated in only 10 giant gas fields. All Norwegian giant gas fields have been put in to production. With the exception of Ormen Lange and Snøhvit, all giant fields have already reached their planned production level. The production from current reserves in the Norwegian North Sea peaked in 2006 at 73 bcm/year. Estimated peak in production from Norway s current reserves in 2010 at 115bcm/year. Source: Söderbergh, B., et al., European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas. Energy Policy (2009)

32 Declining discovery trend Norwegian Gas Discoveries No giant gas field discovered in Norway during the last 10 years. About 85 exploration wells drilled in the Barents Sea since Source: Söderbergh, B., et al., European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas. Energy Policy (2009) Only the Snohvit and Goliat fields discovered in the Barents Sea.

33 Limited Norwegian Potential for Increase Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and By 2030 Norwegian pipeline exports bcm/year. Source: Söderbergh, B., et al., European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas. Energy Policy (2009)

34 Norway A Bottom-up Analysis Norwegian Natural Gas Production Forecast Reference Scenario Field-by-field study of Norwegian gas production. Contingent and undiscovered resources included. Source: Söderbergh, B., et al., European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production, Energy Policy (2009)

35 Western Siberia, Europe s Energy Centre Nadym Pur Taz (NPT) Region is the world s largest gas production center. Over 90% of Russian production (about 20% of global production). NPT Region Source: Gazprom Source: Gazprom

36 The NPT Region is about to Peak Source: Söderbergh, B., (2010). Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security

37 Development of New Areas Tough Areas Left The Shtokman field, arctic offshore. The Yamal Peninsula harsh weather conditions. East Siberia and Sakhalin remote areas. Source: Google Earth Source: Gazprom

38 Yamal The Future Russian Gas Centre Yamal Peninsula Production Forecast Source: Söderbergh, B., (2010). Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security

39 Future Russian Gas Production and Demand Russian domestic gas demand Limited increase of export potential due to increasing Russian domestic demand. Source: Söderbergh, B., et al (2010). Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security

40 IPCC and oil + gas production

41 Peak Coal

42 IPCC and Peak Coal

43 IPCC and oil+gas+coal production

44 IPCC

45 Carbon dioxide Drug Lords

46 Time is running out

47 We Have to Build a Crash Mat

48 Oil fields in Iraq

49 Oil fields in Iraq Let us squeeze in 100 Gb of oil into one bottle of Champagne.

50 We are drinking oil! If 100 Gb of oil is squeezed into one bottle of Champagne we have consumed 11 bottles.

51 The global reserve of crude oil is 8 (9) bottles of Champagne

52 Where to find the crude oil or the 8 bottles of Champagne?

53 The global consumption per year is 30 billion barrels of oil One bottle of Champagne is equal to the consumption in three years and four months.

54 The USA is addicted to oil President Bush, Capitol Hill, 2006: We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil From the beginning the nature had put two bottles in the ground in USA. They are just now sipping on the last glass.

55 The global reserve of crude oil is 8 bottles of Champagne We will discover two more bottles of Champagne We also have three more bottles sparkling wine in Canada and Venezuela.

56 The global reserve of crude oil is 8 bottles of Champagne We have in total 11 bottles (8+3) to empty and 2 more to find, in total 13 bottles. If it takes 3 1/3 years to empty one bottle everyone should be aware of that the party is over and that we need to sobering up! + +

57 Springer has the copy right to the Kjell illustrations Aleklett