Tendenze e mercati oil & gas Le nuove opportunità

Transcription

1 Tendenze e mercati oil & gas Le nuove opportunità Daslav Brkic Saipem S.p.A. Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 1

2 Some heavy pounding, Sir Wellington at Waterloo

3 The energy markets today are transformative and uncertain Sputtering global economic growth Political and geopolitical turmoils Uncertain investment climate and access to financing - Particularly for new mega -projects Complex permitting and stakeholders involvement procedures Numerous structural changes in the industry Rising costs IHC/CERA UCCI +4.3% Q vs. Q Fear of future oil & gas price collapse - Overcapacity, overproduction Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 3

4 but they offer great new opportunities The end of cheap oil and higher oil & gas prices open the economical exploitation of new reserves Impressive new discoveries: Brazil, Turkmenistan, E. Africa, Angola New technologies and new scenarios bring into play new types of reserves - Shale gas, but also tight oil, coal seam gas - Offshore deepwater, ultra deepwater, Arctic But oil & gas price stabilization or reduction could make investments in some reserves unprofitable (e.g. Shtokman) Golden prospects for natural gas The shale gas revolution Rapidly gowing demand in Asia Dramatic upheaval in global trade patterns Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 4

5 Growing primary energy demand will require significant new investments IEA continues to issue optimistic growth forecasts, inspite of some economies slowdowns Mtoe 18,000 15, % 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 EU 27 Rest of OECD 0 Non - OECD Source: IEA Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas (July 2012) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 5

6 Oil & gas industry s investments are expected to grow significantly Particularly in upstream and midstream E&P Capital Spending, Bln Source: Barclays Capital estimates (May 2012) Source: Les Echos, IFP Energies nouvelles (October 2012) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 6

7 Higher investment forecasts than a few years ago Source: Survey of the Upstream Industry by Transmar (September 2012) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 7

8 Substantial investments will be made in new unconventional settings Incremental Capex - to 2015* Bln US $ Source: Goldman Sachs - March 2012; * From GS Top 330 projects Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 8

9 Whereas the traditional GCC and MENA markets have plateaued GCC Rest of MENA M$ M$ Source: MEED Projects Forecast & Review (2012) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 9

10 But even in traditional markets, noteworthy shifts of market relevance Value of contract awards B$ 125 B$ GCC Kuwait Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman UAE Bahrain B$ 85 B$ MENA Algeria Egypt Iran Iraq Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen Source: MEED Insight, MENA Projects and Contractors Review (Sept.2012) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 10

11 But no pattern lasts too long WOOD OIL COAL GAS Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 11

12 Unprecedented challenges, transformations, opportunities Conventional Unconventional Markets Reserves Easy oil, e.g. M.East Oil sands Offshore Deepwater, Arctic Demand from OECD countries Traditional Oil&Gas producers New Oil&Gas producers IOC, NOC Independents, international NOCs Sourcing from industrial countries From Emerging economies Mandatory Local content Gas Shale gas, coal seam gas, Pre-salt USA: Gas importer Gas exporter E&C Companies Technologies and Construction Approaches Stick built Modularized Onshore Deepwater, subsea, floating US, W.European and Japanese S. Korean, M. Eastern, Brasilian, Turkish, Indian, Chinese Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 12

13 The Gas Revolution Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 13

14 Natural Gas might become the leading energy source Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 14

15 Shale Gas A new technology made it possible Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 15

16 With these new finds of shale gas and tight oil, the USA could/will become self sufficient Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 16

17 and perhaps a leading exporter US Export Capacity LNG Source: Eni Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 17

18 LNG from Canada and Alaska - Beyond Shale Gas Also conventional reserves can be exported via LNG to Japan, Korea, China Most likely very expensive projects in very remote locations Complexities: Export licenses, permitting, First Nation relationships Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 18

19 Shale Gas is not only in the USA Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 19

20 Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 20

21 Significant part of current gas reserves is non-conventional Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 21

22 Most new gas production to come from unconventional sources bcm Natural gas supply growth in the Golden Rules Case, Rest of world Rest of world Russia Indonesia Canada European Union India Australia United States Middle East & North Africa China Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, Special Report on Unconventional Gas (July 2012) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 22

23 Natural Gas Consumption and Production - by Some Macro-Regions (MTOE) Source: IEA Medium Term Market Report (2012) North America Europe & Eurasia Asia-Pacific From importer to net exporter Consumption growth from developing economies (incl. Russia and Caspian) to emphasize pipelines To balance spot pricing vs. security of supply Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 23

24 Major new markets, major new opportunities Russian and Caspian Gas for China, Japan and Europe New LNG Oil Sands Exploitation Norwegian North sea New LNG Venezuela Still a bet? Major potential, waiting for resumption Pre-salt gas export Nigerian investments revival? Deepwater projects Iraq GCC programs to continue East African new gas finds South East Asian and Oceanian gas for Japan, China, Korea LNG imports and energy investments Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 24

25 LNG - A huge market Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 25

26 Australia Australia to overshadow Qatar as world leading LNG producer Design and construction of mega - projects continues Remote locations, major shortage of resources, rising costs, implementation complexities Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 26

27 Mozambique Golfinho Atum Mamba North Mamba Northeast Huge new oil & gas discoveries in m w.d. - more to come Exploitation plans: Floaters, LNG, GTL?, Pipelines (local and regional) Huge infrastuctural needs: roads, ports, power, Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 27

28 Iraq (1/2) So far, most play is rehabilitation of old capacity Civil strife, security concerns, lack of financing, Iraqi Constitution, Petroleum Law still only a draft - all limit new investments Kurdistan a major opportunity: world class reserves, local unity of purpose, easy access to Mediterranean - but, still major uncertainties in relationships with Baghdad Source: "Oil The Next Revolution" L. Maugeri, Harvard Kennedy School (June 2012) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 28

29 Iraq (2/2) Meeting initial growth targets might have interesting geopolitical implications Source: MEES, October 2012 Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 29

30 BRAZIL: LEADERSHIP IN NEW DISCOVERIES IN DEEP WATERS New Discoveries ,989 million bbl 19% 49% 32% Bra zil Bra sil Deep Waters Other Discoveries 63% of last 5 years deepwater discoveries Only Petrobras E&P to invest >140 Bln $ during (40% of world deepwater capex) Petrobras: Proven Reserves in Brazil (billion boe) +3% % offshore projects, mostly FPSOs, plus connections, onshore Rigid definition of Local Content requirements Angola: analogous geology, new finds, mirroring Pre -Salt Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 30

31 Arctic Huge Potential, 5 countries Map of Upstream Activity in the Arctic Circle So far, mostly a Russian play But geography could be a handicap in Russian LNG exploitation Oil production expected to grow M b/d = Existing Project = Recent Activity Also gas - LNG, pipelines Major new finds off Norwegian shores Alaska, Canada next Source: Petroleum Economist (2012) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 31

32 Some gas supply projects to EU27 might be difficult Consumi gas EU27 ( ) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 32

33 Solid performance of the Italian industry (1/3) Reference ANIMP Associates 2012 Survey B/Euro Revenues, B /Y Italy International Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 33

34 Solid performance of the Italian industry (2/3) Reference ANIMP Associates 2012 Survey 11% 3% 3% 2% 5% 15% 14% North Africa Middle East South and Central Africa China and Indian Subcontinent Others - Asia Pacific North America South and Central America 20% 16% 11% Italy Europe CIS 14% 4% 2% 3% Oil & Gas Petrochemicals 8% Power Iron and steel 69% Transportation Infrastructures Others Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 34

35 Solid Performance of the Italian Industry (3/3) Data: Federprogetti, Oct. 5, Civil, Enviromental Logistics Other Manufacturing Transportation Industry Plants for Electric Industries Energy Oil&Gas, Petrochemical Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 35

36 So the market is there and growing but also the competition! Top EPC Process Contractors in the GCC Based on work under execution (Aug. 2012)? Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction 5% Samsung Corporation 6% SK Engineering & Construction 8% Saipem 12% Tecnimont 3% Technip 4% Tecnicas Reunidas 4% Petrofac 5% Punj Lloyd 2 % GS Engineering & Construction 8% JGC Corporation 7% Daelim Industrial Company 10% Hyundai Engineering & Construction 12% J Ray McDermott 2% Samsung Engineering 13% Source: MEED Insight, MENA Projects and Contractors Review (Sept.2012) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 36

37 Our Competitive Landscape Traditional Bechtel, Fluor, JGC, Chiyoda Today s Tecnicas Reunidas, Samsung, Petrofac, Oderbrecht Tomorrow s Also Chinese, Turkish, Indian, Local Projects increasingly complex and challenging, competitors ever more aggressive and risk-taking Often bidding w/o contingency, below cost then hope to recapture Very fast in penetrating new markets Sometimes relying on Gov. t aid, on home country financing or offtake agreements Consolidating by acquisitions We need: Perfect "operating machines " Aligment with all parties clients, suppliers, subcontractors A "fast-on-our-feet " aggressive stance Clear differentiation Lowest pricing " The winners will be not the strongest, nor the most intelligent, but the most adaptable " (Sir Frank Chapman, CEO BG, at Gastech 2012) Tendenze e mercati oil & gas - Le nuove opportunità 37

38 All dressed up: Papua New Guinea wants investment but problems remain (Petroleum Economist 2012) 38