PMA traders share of wholesale fruit and vegetable market Final

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1 Perth Market Authority: Assess and define the Perth Market traders share of the wholesale fruit and vegetable market Assessment for the year ending 30 June 2012 March 2013 Final Prepared by Freshlogic Martin Kneebone, Director Phone: ; Mobile: Level 3, 192B Burwood Road Hawthorn, VIC Melbourne, Australia Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority www. freshlogic.com.au

2 Contents 1.0 Executive summary Project overview Market model methodology profile Volume market sizes and shares for year ending 30 June WA wholesale fruit and vegetable market size & PMA traders share Apparent Wholesale Market Share Impacts Consumption and shopping influences and trends Appendixes Adding Value Trading Methodology to replicate future share calculations Supply Profile Demand profile Modelling design to arrive at PMA Market share Page 1 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

3 1.0 Executive summary This project has collated the best available information to map and define the wholesale market share held by tenants operating on the Market City site operated by the Perth Market Authority (PMA). The analysis was undertaken for the year ending 30 June The wholesale market was quantified as $943.5m in value and 492,939 tonnes of externally traded product. The PMA trader share was 62% of the value and 46% of the volume, which represented declines in value share 4.1% and volumes of 2.8%. Lower exposure to the high growth channels of full service supermarkets and international exports were major drivers of the market share decline. There are also indications that operators in the PMA facility are being drawn into more trade in lower value products. The dynamics of the market services by PMA tenants remains dominated by retail competitive intensity and a positive food service sector. Below is a summary of key findings of relevance to the PMA, resulting from the analysis outputs outlined in the following pages. Key Findings The market volumes increased over the previous year by 6.0%, which is greater than market value increase of 3.8%. This indicates that fruit and vegetable values were lower for the year in review. The PMA traders share has declined due to lower exposure to the distribution channels that generated growth. There are indications that PMA tenants are being drawn in to trading in lower value fruit and vegetable categories. The WA market for fresh fruit and vegetables has enjoyed population based demand growth beyond the levels of other states. This positive growth climate is likely to stimulate investments in market share. Page The drivers of more frequent food shopping patterns are firm, and when combined with the scheduled changes to retail trading hours seem likely to favour some channels and impact wholesale market share. Some consumers are willing to pay a premium for product attributes that deliver convenience. This demand has been met in part by processing at pack-house and in some instances processing in and around the wholesale market. The appeal of supporting the local farmer has worked because it satisfies a number of needs, but could be vulnerable due to widespread and varied use and interpretation. Patronage for fresh food specialists is set in long-term influences and positioning advantages, but will now be tested by the convenience of full service supermarkets with like trading hours. These more positive WA food service market conditions appear likely to draw more investment into the sector and with that, more demand for wholesale fruit and vegetables into food service channels. Solving the logistical challenges is a tipping point for online food growth and if resolved the PMA central market facility can service this channel and pick up market share Page 2 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

4 2.0 Project overview 3.0 Market model methodology profile The project assesses the share of the wholesale fruit and vegetable market held by Perth Market Authority, within the state-wide market of Western Australia. The components of our approach include: Quantify the volumes and values of product supplied into the Perth region and define the volumes consumed by all distribution channels in all forms. Confer with the PMA and key stakeholders on the data they have available that can be used to quantify their product volumes. Overview To arrive at market share, there is a need to define the market in which PMA operates. This is defined in Figure 1 below as the products sold and the distribution channels serviced. The diagram below profiles how the model has collated and reconciled data from both ends of the supply chain. Model framework - A reconciliation of supply & demand Reconcile total market size with Mealpulse household and foodservice consumption and THRUchain market model benchmarks. Calculate the PMA wholesale market share with a method that can be replicated at a later point in time. Identify key changes/trends in overall value chain operations. WA production Imports International Imports Interstate Total supply PMA data PMA share Wholesale demand Exports international Retail Food Service Exports interstate Products sold: = higher data accuracy Figure 1 - Analysis Model Framework Fresh whole fruit and vegetables in their harvested from. Minimally processed fruit and vegetables that maintain a fresh chilled shelf life. Distribution channels serviced (F&V products = product sold as defined above): WA-based retailers of fruit and vegetable products. WA-based foodservice buyers of fresh or minimally processed fruit and vegetables. WA-based wholesalers of fresh fruit and vegetable products who operate as further processors or in a break-to-sell mode, where they buy in large Page 3 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

5 quantities (pallets lots) and sell in smaller quantities (cartons or individual pieces). International or interstate sellers of fruit and vegetable products into the WA market. International or interstate export market buyers of WA-produced fresh fruit and vegetable products. Volume supplied and purchased: The project has been based on a THRUchain analysis of the WA fruit and vegetable supply chain, identifying the value and volume flows, from source through the wholesale channels to the retail and foodservice channels to the household. WA production volumes were defined using best available data. The primary sources of data used were Ag Produce Commission, DFAT import export data, and ABS/ABARE data. Wholesale demand was modelled based on market intelligence of retail outlet sales of supermarkets, specialist greengrocers/markets, and other retailers. The value of the annual of sales in the retail channel reconciles with the Mealpulse panel data household spend on fruit and vegetables. Market intelligence was gathered from industry sources for foodservice purchase volumes and values. All volumes are reconciled through the WA supply chain from production through to the distribution channel at a product level. Where the WA production plus imports was above WA wholesale volumes, it led to assumptions on interstate exports. Similarly, where WA production less international exports was lower than WA wholesale volumes, it led to assumptions on interstate imports. Where these assumptions were formed, activity in these categories was confirmed through wholesale market data that revealed product origin. All PMA-based tenant sales are included in the PMA traders share. Distribution Channel outlet numbers: Figure 2 profiles the outlet numbers by retail and food service subchannel. Page 4 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final Outlet Numbers for Western Australia by Sub-Channel For the year ending June 2012 Retail Foodservice Master channel Grocery Specialised Takeaway Dining out Event/leisure Institutional Sub-channel Full-service supermarkets Independent supermarkets Greengrocer & markets Sandwich bars Independent takeaway Quick-serve restaurants (QSR) Restaurants & cafes Pubs, clubs & function centres Event, leisure & travel Accommodation Hospitals Aged care Defence Correctional Corporate (workplace) Education Figure 2 - Number of Fruit & Vegetable Outlets in WA 4.0 Volume market sizes and shares for year ending 30 June 12 Total supply of 492,939 tonnes, which is 5.2% or 24,523 greater than Total WA consumption, being retail and foodservice, of 401,553 tonnes, which is 4.8% or 18,265 tonnes greater than Total international exports were 74,400 tonnes, which was 16.7% or 10,659 tonnes greater than The PMA external traded wholesale volume was 224,562 and 2.3% or 5,208 tonnes less than This flowed through to a PMA wholesale volume market share of 46% which is 2.8% lower than , , ,070

6 5.0 WA wholesale fruit and vegetable market size & PMA traders share This section defines the supply chain in which the Perth Market Authority (PMA) operates and the distribution channels that acquire fresh fruit and vegetables. It profiles the volumes that flow from supply into these distribution channels and the PMA tenant share of the wholesale market interface. Figure 3 quantifies these volumes and the PMA wholesale market share based on external trade. For the year ending 30 June 2012 the PMA wholesale fruit and vegetable market share was 46% of volume and 62% of market value, which reflects market share reductions of 2.8% in volume and 4.1% in value. The apparent reasons for this market share change are summarised in section 6.0 Figure 3 - PMA Wholesale Market Share - External Trade Page 5 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

7 Figure 4 repeats profile of Figure 3 with the addition of identifying both external and internal (value added) trade volumes. The PMA added value volume is 39,500 tonnes, which is 2,000 tonnes up on the previous year. A more detailed explanation of the nature and circumstances in and around the value added trade is described in more detail the report appendices that commence page 11. Figure 4 - PMA Wholesale Market Share - External Trade & Value Added Trade Identified Page 6 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

8 Analysis notes 6.0 Apparent Wholesale Market Share Impacts 1. Sales of non-fruit and vegetables, including eggs and honey etc., are valued at $12 million, and are excluded from PMA wholesaler sales. 2. Allowances have been made for wholesale sales not captured in the available wholesale trading data. 3. There is a level of added value trading where product is sold more than once before being sold to the final distributor. The nature of this activity is described in appendices on page 11. It is estimated at 79,500 tonnes in volume, which includes an estimated 2,000 tonne increase in this activity inside PMA over All international export sales are included in the definition of the wholesale market as PMA traders engage in some export activity. If these sales were excluded from this assessment for the year ending 30 June 2012 it would increase PMA traders volume market share by 8.0% to 54%. This is a decrease on the same market calculation for 2011 of 57% for the 2011 year. 5. There were substantial increases in the volumes of fruit and vegetable imported and exported internationally. In exports this was driven by an increase in carrots of 11,031 tonnes and in imports this was driven by increases in oranges of 936 tonnes, garlic 628 tonnes, other fruit 716 tonnes and cherries 628 tonnes. 6. This assessment is based on the year ending 30 June The market volumes increased over the previous year by 5.6%, which is greater than market value increase of 3.8%. This indicates that fruit and vegetable values were lower for the year in review. The PMA traders market share volume loss of 2.8% is reflected in the total wholesale market increasing by 5.2% or 24,523 tonnes and PMA traders volumes decreased by 2.3% or 5,208 tonnes. This was driven by varying growth levels across the distribution channels that impacted PMA traders share, due to varied exposure to these channels. The most significant impacts came from corporate supermarkets and international export, which between them generated over 80% of the total market growth. These are two channels that PMA does not hold high exposure and therefore their growth served to reduce share. Patterns of higher exposure to lower value fresh fruit and vegetables, which could be attributed to: The PMA tenants having more exposure to products in flush, which tend to be at lower values. This is a logical repercussion as the central markets are the most likely distribution options for unexpected or unplanned volumes. PMA tenants being less exposed to the higher prices that are typically paid by some major buyers, to secure the large quantities of consistent quality product. Lower overall weighted sales due to proportionately more sales of lower value lines than the total market. This drives the higher value loss of share. The PMA traders share has declined due to lower exposure to the distribution channels that generated growth. There are indications that PMA tenants are being drawn into trading in lower value fruit and vegetable categories. Page 7 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

9 7.0 Consumption and shopping influences and trends This analysis has identified a number of consumer trends that influence how households buy their food and how food is moving through the West Australian fresh produce value chain. These trends are anchored in the pressures felt by time-poor consumers, while being balanced by consumers drive to seek better value. These two almost opposing drivers set the scene for how the West Australian produce sector will be pushed to develop in coming years, and the opportunities and challenges for the industry will be determined by how these two motivations are exhibited by consumers. The practical implications of these are described below. WA population growth has exceeded national levels for the year in review, meaning the size of the retail and food service markets for fruit and vegetable has increased as these new residents fall into normal food buying behaviour. For the year in review, the population in WA increased by 3.3% or 78,000 to 2,430,300 million 1. This was a higher growth rate than national population growth of 1.6%, reflecting that WA population growth was higher than all other states. This higher growth level would have flowed through to increased demand for fresh fruit and vegetables at market and through food service providers. This positive growth climate is not enjoyed by other states. These more buoyant conditions are also reflected in the expansion into WA of several casual food service chains, including Grill'd Burgers, Mad Mex and Sumo Salads. All indications are that these new offers have been welcomed by consumers and generated good volumes. The WA market for fresh fruit and vegetables has enjoyed population based demand growth beyond the levels of other states. This positive growth climate is likely to stimulate investments in market share. Increased frequency of household food shopping remains one of the most significant and far reaching demand trends. Households are now shopping for 1 ABS Catalogue June 2012 Page 8 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final smaller quantities more often, and the smaller top-up shop is now the dominant mode of shopping. It is anchored in the long-term trend towards smaller households as well as meal decisions being made closer to meal time (by all household types). In addition, there are increasing numbers of urban consumers living in inner-city locations now using their supermarket as their fridge. The strength of the demand is reflected in how retailers have responded with substantial investments in the likes of self-service checkouts, to cater for these shopping patterns. The impact of this trend is poised to be magnified by recent changes in retail trading hours, which were introduced from August 2012 and therefore will impact in the year ending June These changes will allow the corporate supermarkets to open for extended hours and on Sundays. If these changes follow the patterns of other states they will enable the corporate supermarkets, with their one stop shop convenience, to gain market share. The drivers of more frequent food shopping patterns are firm, and when combined with the scheduled changes to retail trading hours seem likely to favour some channels and impact wholesale market share. A premium for making it easier is being generated for products that are more meal-ready, or are provided in smaller portions. The smaller portions suit the shorter meal planning timeframes and more frequent shopping patterns of many time poor households, who are accepting of the price premium. A contributing factor to this demand is the heightened consumer concerns about using all they buy and minimising home waste. Mealpulse panel responses for the year under review indicate that over 60% would buy a smaller portion if it reduced home waste. This willingness to pay for these attributes has contributed to the majority of the value added to retail fresh fruit and vegetable categories in the last 5 years. It is reflected in higher sales of the likes of punnets of berries and tomatoes, packaged salads, sliced mushrooms and sweet corn cobbettes. These products are typically

10 meal size portions and all sell at a higher price per kg than other like forms of the same product, which are often available in a loose self-select form. Some consumers are willing to pay a premium for product attributes that deliver convenience. This demand has been met in part by processing at pack-house and in some instances processing in and around the wholesale market. However, this analysis suggests that there is a risk that locally grown, if it remains relatively undefined, could drift into the sort of confused messaging that has enveloped the many versions of Australian Made. The appeal of supporting the local farmer has worked because it satisfies a number of needs, but could be vulnerable due to widespread and varied use and interpretation. Increased concerns about sustainability and environmental issues have fuelled a desire for consumers to do their bit and contribute to their community. However, not all are prepared to pay for it. However this interest has had to deal with the myriad of ethical food and provenance messages and the inherent complexity of the issue. The specialist greengrocers enjoy patronage from a good proportion of food shoppers, but it is of more relevance that these retailers are viewed as highly favoured providers by many of these consumers. The detail of this view is reflected in the reasons why 25-30% of supermarket shoppers regularly use these retailers, which are anchored on better quality, range and, in some categories, lower regular prices. Specialist fresh food retailers in Western Australia have also enjoyed extended trading hours compared to full service supermarkets in the state. Share by Channel - Fruit & Veg Purchases (% Chng FY 2011 vs FY 2012) The situation has been somewhat compounded by the tendency of the new media landscape to reduce attention spans and summarise issues into simple headlines. Then the support your local farmer movement arrived with an uncluttered message and a feel good benefit for consumers. All indications are that it has been embraced by the supply chain and consumers in most developed markets. The impact of this trend is elevated with West Australian consumers due to the existence of the series of Buy WA grown initiatives, which are currently lead by the buy west eat best program. Supporting local growers will resonate strongly with WA consumers. National WA -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% Greengrocer Supermarket Figure 5 - Changes in Channel Share It should also be remembered that Australian retail has evolved with a mediterranean influence, and in the last 30 years has enjoyed a similar cultural Page 9 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

11 injection of influence from SE Asia. Both these cultures aspire to buy their food at smaller specialist outlets or markets. While these reasons amount to a defendable set of advantages, and have provided the basis for these specialists to survive, it is also significant that by default, consumers also position the supermarket fresh food offers on these attributes. Over the year to June 2012, specialist retailers lost share, while supermarkets have gained marginal share. It has been the households most sensitive to cost that have reduced spending at specialists. Patronage for fresh food specialists is set in long-term influences and positioning advantages, but will now be tested by the convenience of full service supermarkets with like trading hours. The food service channel nationally has been significantly reshaped with value seeking consumers trading down to lower cost options and the accompanying expansion of new styles of casual dining, as well as improved, healthier and higher-value product ranges in QSR outlets. Changes in consumer behaviour have impacted some eating out occasions. For example, lunch which was once an occasion for a social or business meeting has transitioned towards a catch up for a coffee, reducing the sales of sit down food for those who cater for lunch. In addition, the strong growth in breakfast in recent years is now being challenged by a new range of breakfast to go beverage protein products that are well suited to eating on the run. These more positive WA food service market conditions appear likely to draw more investment into the sector and with that, more demand for wholesale fruit and vegetables into food service channels. E-tailing of food is poised for expansion. If solutions are found to the problem of getting deliveries to the consumer, they could prove to be a game changer for grocery and meal offers. The adverse impacts of these trends in Western Australia have been significantly softened by greater population growth, higher apparent consumer affluence and servicing the growth in the resource sector. In these conditions however, the state s market has seen growth in high-end restaurant numbers as well as strong growth in servicing the in-house catering requirements of the mining camps, while pressure on the mid-range restaurants remains. The key hurdle is centred on delivery to the household or workplace, and the difficulties of aligning that delivery with customers being home. This challenge has stimulated an array of solutions that include click n collect, a number of third party providers of refrigerated letterboxes, as well as a domestic sized refrigerated letterbox that are available for any household to purchase. Page 10 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

12 Of those shoppers who currently purchase online food ingredients for preparation at home, the most popular categories as outlined in Figure 6 include: groceries followed by fruit and vegetables, and dairy products. Fruit and vegetables are clearly in the frame of products on line. % of shoppers that buy in each category Groceries 70% Fruit or vegs Dairy 40% 37% Meat Bakery Prepared meals Other 27% 21% 19% 13% Figure 6 - Food Categories Purchased Online All indications are that online food operations globally are struggling to generate profit. This is widely attributed to the fact that they are competing with the supermarket business model which is the least cost option to distribute food, enjoy buying scale and offers a model that harnesses shopper labour, together with the challenges of home delivery. The central market facility, that operates as the focal point for distribution of fruit and vegetables are the obvious solution for emerging online retailers to source product, consolidate orders and then on distribute fruit and vegetables. Solving the logistical challenges is a tipping point for online food growth and if resolved the PMA central market facility can service this channel and pick up market share. Page 11 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

13 8.0 Appendixes Adding Value Trading This value adding occurs in a number of circumstances and is essentially driven by the efficiency of wholesalers, buyers and sellers specialising in what they do and employing the services of others to support their needs. These activities are assessed as market efficiencies, and reflect that PMA tenants and other wholesalers are selling services as well as products. In these instances product is traded more than once in the wholesale market before it is sold to the last distributor. The situations where this added value trading occurs include: A buyer organising for a selected wholesaler to buy, consolidate and deliver all their requirements. In this instance the wholesaler will need to source product of other wholesalers. A wholesaler importing a large freight efficient semi load quantities and once it is delivered, selling pallet or carton quantities to other wholesalers. A wholesaler specialising in the sourcing and or conditioning/ripening of a product, which leaves that wholesaler with unique investments and product expertise. Other wholesalers have not made that investment or hold that level of expertise, will buy product from the specialist wholesaler to meet their buyer s needs. A grower appointing a wholesaler to manage the marketing of a complete crop. This creates situations where some of the crop is sold to other wholesalers for the likes of prepacking and or sale in broken carton quantities to smaller buyers. These types of trades are common and efficient ways of distributing fruit and vegetable products, as it is not feasible for all wholesalers to be primary sourcing agents, for all types of fruit & vegetable products. Equally it is not efficient for every buyer to trade with every wholesaler to buy what they need. Methodology to replicate future share calculations This section details methodology used and the process required to replicate the market model outputs for future market share calculations. WA production Imports International Imports Interstate Model framework - A reconciliation of supply & demand Total supply PMA data PMA share = higher data accuracy Wholesale demand The process developed and used was based on the principle of reconciling volumes and values through WA fresh fruit and vegetable supply chain. It was anchored by collating data that enabled profiling from both demand and supply ends of the supply chain. Supply Profile To build the supply profile, the following data sources were used: Exports international Retail Food Service Exports interstate 1. WA DPI, Agricultural Produce Commission (APCWA) 2. ABS and ABARE production data 3. DFAT international import and export trade statistics 4. Wholesale market trading data from Ausmarket services 5. Conferring with key industry participants on interstate imported volumes 6. Category profiles prepared by Freshlogic that had quantified state-based production volumes. Page 12 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

14 In consolidating the supply data, the following approach was adopted. The analysis was undertaken at a product category level in volumes and then converted to dollar values at the total level. The product categories used are listed below. Preference was given to APC data for fruit, which was available in total tonnes and viewed as more complete. APC data for vegetables was processed into tonnes for further analysis by adopting the wholesale market common pack sizes. In the absence of all other data, ABS data was used, but only in a minority of products. Market value was established by a using the CFVIWA total $ per kg, except for export and import data, where sufficient data was available to calculate these inputs separately. Demand profile To build the demand profile, the following data sources were used: 1. Mealpulse panel household expenditure data for fruit and vegetables. Vegetables Fruit Asian Vegetables Apple Asparagus Apricot Beetroot Avocado Broccoli Banana Cabbage Bean Capsicum Berry (Not strawberry) Carrot Cherry Cauliflower Coconut Celery Custard Apple Chilli Grape Corn Grapefruit Cucumber Kiwifruit Eggfruit Lemon Garlic Lime Ginger Mandarin Herbs Mango Leek Nectarine Lettuce Orange Melon Other Fruit Mushroom Passionfruit Onion Peach Other Veg Pear Peas Pineapple Potato Plum Pumpkin Strawberry Radish Rhubarb Salad Mix Soup Packs Spinach Sprouts Sweetpotato Squash Tomato Zucchini 2. ABS Household expenditure for fruit and vegetables for WA and proportion of food dollars spend on food eaten away from home. 3. ABS data on number of households in WA. 4. Freshlogic data sources for the retail channels captured detail of: 4.1. The number of outlets by the following types of retail channels Corporate Supermarkets Independent Supermarkets Greengrocer and Markets Other retail (i.e. Direct to home etc.) 4.2. The average fruit and vegetable sales per outlet 4.3. The sales contribution by product category 4.4. Assumed retail margins, waste levels, and cost of distribution were identified and discounted from retail sales values to arrive at wholesale purchase values. 5. Freshlogic data sources for the food service channel captured detail of: 5.1. The number of outlets operating in food service distribution channels. These were collated by type and grouped into: Takeaway Dining Out Event and Leisure Institutional Information on the proportion of purchases that fruit and vegetables represent in food service channels. It is not possible to define the value of what consumers pay for fruit and vegetables eaten out of home as these purchases are typically made for meals The total food service wholesale sales were gathered through discussions with those servicing this sector The sales contribution by product category. 6. Export volumes and value data was drawn from DFAT captured export sales. Modelling design to arrive at PMA Market share A. Wholesale demand volume confirmed based on calculated retail, food service, and export volumes. Page 13 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

15 B. Wholesale supply volumes confirmed by calculation of total supply volumes. C. Gaps and misalignments identified and reconciled. If required, adjustments were made to the volumes of interstate imports into WA and exports out of WA. In instances where there was no evidence to support import and export volumes, overriding preference was given to demand volumes and production was adjusted. It is should be noted that all imports contributed 20% of total supply into the wholesale market and exports distributed took 19% of the wholesale volume. Total Wholesale market volumes and values calculated. D. PMA traders volume and value market calculated based on CFVIWA data. E. PMA traders share of external trade is calculated as an output of A plus B divided by total external trade. The results are on page 5. Page 14 Commercial and in confidence for Perth Market Authority Report - Final

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