Analysis of through-chain pricing of food products (Summary version) Freshlogic 24 August 2012

Transcription

1 Analysis of through-chain pricing of food products (Summary version) Freshlogic August 0

2 Introduction Objective This document has been prepared by Freshlogic as an internal briefing paper for Coles on a strictly confidential basis. It provides the following: An analysis of the share of retail sales prices available to primary producers, processors and the retailer on products sourced and sold by Coles A profile of average retail selling prices over time in some cases compared to average buying prices to illustrate the consistency of the relationships between those prices Coles share of sales of produce taking account of the total volumes available within the Australian market. Where applicable, this takes account of product exported as well as imported volumes. Sources of information The information used in this document has been derived from several sources: Coles internal retail sales and category costings data Freshlogic s THRUChain analysis model to determine Coles share of sales of food categories Industry information and data on yields from cattle and sugar production, as well as product conversion relationships that apply to dairy products Information from wholesalers and producers as to costs incurred in the early stages of fresh produce supply chains. Summary The Analysis shows:. In most fresh produce categories, the primary producer receives over 50% of the retail selling price.. In processed products the farm gate share is lower but there are additional processing and supply chain costs between the farm and the consumer.. There is significant price fluctuation in many fresh produce categories which flow from the farm gate through to consumer pricing as part of regular seasonal cycles.. In every category analysed, Coles has a relatively small proportion of total sales in the market. Page

3 Notes on these analyses This has been based on Freshlogic s analysis for the nominated financial period in each case, which has relied upon: Coles dissections of direct store and other operating costs in the relevant financial period associated with handling the products Coles data on average buying and selling prices, promotional costs, discounts and other costs attributed to the products Freshlogic s estimate of wholesale margins based on the typical nature of sourcing and broking arrangements for supply to Coles Freshlogic s estimate of other handling costs associated with the movement and preparation of product from producer to wholesaler The selection has used the most appropriate data to reflect the level of retail prices over time. Shares of sales Coles share of product sales in the case of fresh produce and selected other lines has been calculated taking account of the total available supplies of produce sold in domestic and export markets by Australian producers. This excludes the volumes of produce sold into processing uses. The estimates of total available product is each category is based on Freshlogic s THRUChain model which reconciles total supply chain supply and distribution across all agrifood categories and major product groups. Coles volumes of sales includes the estimated allowances for losses through product handling. Definitions Items disclosed in the share of retail price charts are defined as follows: Farmgate is the apparent gross return available to the primary producer/grower for the sale of product at the farmgate, calculated as the wholesale price less a wholesaler s margin, less Logistics costs. Beyond farm includes the following elements: Logistics are costs associated with transport from farm to market, packing, packaging materials, storage and any ripening. Wholesale is the available wholesale margin deducted by a wholesaler or broker from the wholesale price. This has been set at 7.5% for fresh produce categories. Distribution are costs associated with transport from wholesale market to the retailer, incurred prior to the retailer point of purchase Retail costs are direct costs associated with products which include Freight and logistics In-store handling costs Discounts Direct store labour Allocation of store and company overheads Retail margin is the amount of margin available, being net retail price (after markdowns) less retail costs and retailer s net buying price. Retail margins calculated in each category vary, as they reflect individual product gross margins in each case less direct product and store department costs Coles overall supermarket margins EBIT margin Cost of goods sold Gross margin CODB (.6% for FY 0) Page

4 Bananas The banana producer earned an average of 57% of the average retail price in the 0 financial year. Costs between producer and wholesaler include packaging and transport, which are assigned to the beyond farm share of prices. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the 0 financial year. Prices are subject to seasonal variation due to variation in the availability of produce. The spike in prices in 0 was due to extreme weather. Coles sold about 0% of fresh bananas available in the Australian market in 0/, excluding processed bananas. There are negligible export volumes. Total sales include sales into food service channels. Bananas are sourced from various growing regions but over 90% are grown in Queensland 5. Bananas - share of the retail price in FY 0 5 Annual tonnes by state WA,.0% NSW,.0% NT,.0% QLD, 9.0% The spike in pricing was due to the impact of Cyclone Yasi on production and supply Page

5 Granny Smith Apples The growers of Granny Smith Apples earned an average of 5% of the average retail price in the 0 financial year. Costs between producer and wholesaler include packaging, storage and transport, which are assigned to the beyond farm share of prices. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the 0 financial year. Prices are subject to seasonal variation due to variation in the availability of produce. Coles sold about 8% of fresh apples available in the Australian market in 0/, excluding the effect of export sales and the significant volumes of apples processed to pulp and juice. Total sales include sales into food service channels. Apples are sourced from various growing regions with Victoria the largest supplying state. Granny Smith Apples - share of the retail price in FY 0 Annual tonnes by state TAS,.% WA,.9% VIC, 9.% SA, 7.% QLD,.% NSW, 6.9% Page 5

6 Kensington Mango The Kensington mango producer earned an average of 5% of the average retail price in the 0 financial year, which is lower than other fresh categories due to packing, handling and ripening costs. Costs between producer and wholesaler include packaging and transport, which are assigned to the beyond farm share of prices. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the 0 financial year. Prices are subject to seasonal variation due to variation in the availability of produce. Coles sold about 8% of mango available in the Australian market in 0/, excluding processed mangoes. Imports account for % of local fresh product supply on average. Total sales include sales into food service channels. Mangoes are sourced from various growing regions but close to 70% are grown in Queensland. Kensington Mango - share of the retail price in FY 0 Annual tonnes by state WA, 8.0% NT,.0% QLD, 69.0% Page 6

7 Strawberries The strawberry producer earned an average of 55% of the average retail price in the 0 financial year. Costs between producer and wholesaler include packaging and transport, which are assigned to the beyond farm share of prices. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the 0 financial year. Prices are subject to seasonal variation due to variation in the availability of produce. Coles sold about 7% of strawberries available in the Australian market in 0/, excluding the volumes of processed mangoes. Total strawberry sales include sales into food service channels. Strawberries are sourced from various growing regions with Queensland and Victoria the largest supplying states. Strawberries - share of the retail price in FY 0 Strawberry Annual production tonnes by tonnes state by state TAS,.% WA,.0% SA, 0.0% VIC,.0% QLD,.6% NSW,.0% Page 7

8 Haas Avocado The avocado producer earned an average of 5% of the average retail price in the 0 financial year, which is lower than other fresh lines due to packing and ripening costs. Costs between producer and wholesaler include packaging and transport, which are assigned to the beyond farm share of prices. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the 0 financial year. Prices are subject to seasonal variation due to variation in the availability of produce. Coles sold about % of avocadoes available in the Australian market in 0/, which excludes a small volume of exports, but includes fresh imported product to take account of seasonal gaps, which accounted for about 0% of available product in the Australian market. Total sales include sales into food service channels. Avocados are sourced from various growing regions but close to 80% are grown in Queensland 5. Haas avocado - share of the retail price in FY 0 5 Annual tonnes by state WA, 7.8% SA,.% NSW,.% The spike in pricing was due to the effect of poor weather shortening supply QLD, 79.7% Page 8

9 Broccoli The broccoli producer earned an average of % of the average retail price in the 0 financial year. Costs between producer and wholesaler include packaging and transport, which are assigned to the beyond farm share of prices. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the 0 financial year. Prices are subject to seasonal variation due to variation in the availability of produce. Coles sold about % of fresh broccoli volumes available in the Australian market in 0/, which excludes a small volume of fresh exports and processed broccoli. Total sales include sales into food service channels. Broccoli is sourced from various growing regions but more than half is grown in Victoria. Broccoli - share of the retail price in FY 0 Annual tonnes by state SA,.0% WA, 8.0% TAS, 9.0% VIC, 5.0% QLD, 0.0% NSW, 8.0% Page 9

10 Field Gourmet Tomatoes The tomato producer earned an average of 50% of the average retail price in the 0 financial year. Costs between producer and wholesaler include packaging and transport, which are assigned to the beyond farm share of prices. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the 0 financial year. Prices are subject to seasonal variation due to variation in the availability of produce. Coles sold about 5% of fresh tomato volumes available in the Australian market in 0/, which excludes fresh exports and significant volumes of processed tomatoes which are canned and juiced; but includes fresh imported product. Total sales include sales into food service channels. Tomatoes are sourced from various growing regions with Queensland and Victoria the largest supplying states. Field Gourmet tomatoes - share of the retail price in FY 0 Annual tonnes by state WA,.7% TAS, 0.% SA,.5% QLD, 0.8% VIC,.8% NSW,.% Page 0

11 Pre-packed Carrots The carrot producer earned an average of 8% of the average retail price in the 0 financial year. Costs between producer and wholesaler include packaging and transport, which are assigned to the beyond farm share of prices. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the 0 financial year. Coles sold about 7% of fresh carrots available in the Australian market in 0/, which excludes a large portion of production which is exported; and carrots used in processing. Total sales include sales into food service channels. Carrots are sourced from various growing regions with Western Australia and Tasmania the largest supplying states. Pre-packed carrots - share of the retail price in FY 0 Annual tonnes by state VIC, 0.0% TAS, 8.0% NSW, 8.5% QLD, 6.5% SA, 6.0% WA,.0% Page

12 Mushrooms The mushroom producer earned an average of 57% of the average retail price in the 0 financial year. Costs between producer and wholesaler include packaging and transport, which are assigned to the beyond farm share of prices. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the 0 financial year Coles sold about % of fresh mushrooms available in the Australian market in 0/, which excludes a small portion of production which is used in processing. Total sales include sales into food service channels. Mushrooms are sourced from various growing facilities located close to major metropolitan centres with New South Wales and Victoria the largest supplying states. Mushrooms - share of the retail price in FY 0 Annual tonnes by state WA,.0% TAS,.0% VIC, 7.0% SA,.0% Page QLD, 8.0% NSW, 0.0%

13 Milk Private label The analysis has been based on the pricing of Coles -litre fresh white fullcream milk for the 0 financial year. The milk producer earned an estimated 5% of the average retail price at farmgate in the final quarter of the 0 financial year. This is based on the expected full year milk price that will be achieved on average in 0 calendar year by milk producers supplying milk processors across Australia. This takes account of different prices in each region. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the th quarter of the 0 financial year Coles sold about 7% of fresh milk available in the Australian market in 0/. This excludes sales of UHT milk. Fresh drinking milk (tier milk) represents some -5% of milk production and is produced in most States, proportionate with State populations Packaged milk is processed in plants located close to major metropolitan centres with New South Wales and Victoria the largest supplying states. Coles litre milk - share of the retail price in FY 0 Major milk processing sites % of drinking milk sales by state TAS,.5% WA,.% VIC,.% SA, 9.% QLD,.7% NSW, 0.9% Page

14 Cheese - Brand Cheese products The analysis deals with cheddar cheese which is the major variety of cheese sold in the Australian market. Cheese is analysed on this and the following page and these pages should be read together. Share of the branded retail price The analysis is based on the weighted average per kilogram prices achieved in major selling branded mature cheddar products in 50g, 500g, and kg pack sizes in the 0 financial year. The milk producer earned an average of 9% of the average retail price in the 0 financial year, based on an average farmgate prices paid at farmgate. The costs of storage for maturation of cheese have been assigned to the processing sector within these workings. A significant volume of cheese produced in the Australian market is packed on a toll-manufacturing basis, the costs of which are reflected beyond farm. Cheddar cheese is manufactured in a number of major plants across southern Australian regions, with Victoria supplying 7% of output. Branded cheddar blocks (average of main selling lines) - share of the retail price in FY 0 Major cheese manufacturing sites Annual tonnes by state WA,.% SA,.% TAS,.% NSW, 8.% VIC, 7.% Page

15 Cheese - Private Label Share of the private label retail price The analysis is based on the weighted average per kilogram prices achieved in major selling mature cheddar products in 50g, 500g, and kg pack sizes in the 0 financial year. The milk producer earned an average equivalent of 8% of the average retail price of the cheese product in the 0 financial year, based on an average farmgate price paid in the industry at farmgate. The costs of storage for maturation of cheese have been assigned to the processing sector within these workings. A significant volume of cheese produced in the Australian market is packed on a toll-manufacturing basis, the costs of which are reflected beyond farm. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the th quarter of the 0 financial year. Prices are shown for Coles and a main selling supplier brand for kg and 500g product. Coles sold about % of cheddar cheese available in the Australian market in 0/, which included imports representing about 6% of product available in the Australian market. Cheddar is imported for use in the packing of natural cheese products as well as for processed cheese. Total sales include sales into food service channels. Coles private label cheddar blocks (average of main selling lines) - share of the retail price in FY 0 Page 5

16 Bread Private label The analysis is based on a 680g Coles value loaf (priced at $ per loaf in much of 0 financial year), and analysis of the processing stages involved in the production of a loaf. The wheat producer earned an average equivalent of % of the average retail price of the Coles value product in the 0 financial year, based on an average farmgate price paid in the industry at farmgate. The grain component of the loaf is based on the average usage of wheat in bread flour, using the average hard wheat pool return projected by AWB Limited for 0/. The chart of average prices over time, which compares Coles value white bread with Coles private label branded product and a major selling branded product, covers the quarter period to the end of the 0 financial year. Coles made about % of retail packet bread sales in the Australian market. In addition, it sold about % of the in-store baked bread sales in the Australian market. Total sales exclude sales into food service channels where bakeries sell to takeaway, restaurants and other outlets. Packet bread is manufactured in a number of major plants located close to major metropolitan centres. Coles 650g white loaf - share of the retail price in FY 0 Major bread making sites Source: Nielsen Page 6

17 Sugar The sugar cane grower earned an average of 0% of the average retail price for sugar products in the 0 financial year, which is based on the Queensland Sugar declared 0 season pool price for sugar. The greatest use of sugar in the food industry is as an ingredient in the manufacture of a wide range of food products which are also sold through grocery stores. It was estimated that in the 0 financial year, total grocery sales of packaged sugar were 0,000 tonnes (per RetailWorld), of which Coles sold 0,900 tonnes (0% of retail sales) and less than % of production. These compare to an average total sugar industry bulk sugar production of. million tonnes. The chart of average prices over time covers the quarters to the end of the th quarter of the 0 financial year Sugar is manufactured in a number of major plants in north eastern Australian regions, with Queensland supplying about 9% of output. Coles raw sugar - share of the retail price in FY 0 Major sugar growing regions Page 7