Perth Market Authority: Assess and define the Perth Market traders share of the wholesale fruit and vegetable market

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1 Perth Market Authority: Assess and define the Perth Market traders share of the wholesale fruit and vegetable market Assessment for the year ending 30 June 2014 February 2015 Martin Kneebone, Managing Director Level 3, 192B Burwood Road Hawthorn, Victoria 3122 Australia Phone: Fax:

2 Contents 1 Executive summary Key findings Project overview Market model methodology profile Volume market sizes and shares for year ending 30 June WA wholesale fruit and vegetable market size & PMA traders share Apparent Wholesale Market Share Impacts Consumption and shopping influences and trends Appendices Adding Value Trading Methodology to replicate future share calculations Supply Profile Demand profile Modelling design to arrive at PMA traders market share... 13

3 Table of figures Figure 1: Analysis Model Framework... 2 Figure 2: Number of Fruit & Vegetable Outlets in WA... 3 Figure 3: PMA Wholesale Market Share - External Trade... 5 Figure 4: Impacts on PMA traders share in 2013/

4 1 Executive summary This project has collated the best available information to map and define the wholesale market share held by tenants operating on the Market City site operated by the Perth Market Authority (PMA). The analysis was undertaken for the year ending 30 June The wholesale market was quantified as $1,096.8m in value and 510,013t of externally traded product. The PMA share was 56% of the value and 42% of the volume, which represented declines in value share 2.0% and volume share of 2.9% on the last financial year. Lower exposure to the high growth channels of full service supermarkets and interstate exports were major drivers of the market share decline. The dynamics of the market services by PMA tenants remains dominated by retail competitive intensity and a positive food service sector. Below is a summary of key findings of relevance to the PMA, resulting from the analysis outputs outlined in the following pages. 1.1 Key findings The total WA market volumes decreased over the previous year by 3.1%, while the market value increased by 0.4%. This indicates that fruit and vegetable values have increased more than market volumes for the year in review. PMA traders have lost wholesale market share due to lower exposure to the distribution channels that source produce directly such as corporate supermarkets and exporters. 6 7 retailer sourcing strategies, which has potential to move more volume to direct buying, which is largely outside the PMA complex. Growing volumes of imported fruit is adding value to the West Australian market, particularly during the traditionally limited winter fruit offer. The imports are challenging early season price premiums of some domestic suppliers, however. Reduced local production volumes clearly impact the wholesale market size, and depending on the crop can influence availability of stock, and as a result PMA traders market share. The WA market for fresh fruit and vegetables has continued to enjoy population- based demand growth beyond the levels of other states. Increasing shopping frequency is changing the pack sizes of product consumers are buying, and the increasing volume of food being sold in small portions at higher per kg prices is having an upward effect on the overall market value. In WA the provenance shift is set against a background of organised promotion for local production. The rising level of imported produce will challenge the strength of this state-level provenance story. Growth in ready meal sales will take away sales of ingredients as consumers shift the preparation to meal assemblers. The sourcing arrangements of these meal assemblers will be of significance to PMA traders share as demand for this product form continues to grow Competitive intensity is flowing through to impact retail market share and 8 Page 1 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

5 2 Project overview The project assesses the share of the wholesale fruit and vegetable market held by the Perth Market Authority (PMA), within the state-wide market of Western Australia. The components of our approach include: Quantify the volumes and values of product supplied into the Perth region and define the volumes consumed by all distribution channels in all forms. Confer with the PMA and key stakeholders on the data they have available that can be used to quantify their product volumes. Reconcile total market size with Mealpulse household and foodservice consumption and THRUchain market model benchmarks. Calculate the PMA traders wholesale market share with a method that can be replicated at a later point in time. Identify key changes, trends and influences in overall value chain operations. 3 Market model methodology profile Overview To arrive at market share, there is a need to define the market in which the PMA operates. This is defined in Figure 1 below as the products sold and the distribution channels serviced. The diagram below profiles how the model has collated and reconciled data from both ends of the supply chain. WA production Imports International Imports Interstate Model framework - A reconciliation of supply & demand Total supply PMA data PMA share Wholesale demand Exports international Retail Food Service Exports interstate = higher data accuracy Figure 1: Analysis Model Framework Products sold: Fresh whole fruit and vegetables in their harvested form. Minimally processed fruit and vegetables that maintain a fresh chilled shelf life. Distribution channels serviced (F&V products = product sold as defined above): WA-based retailers of fruit and vegetable products. Page 2 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

6 WA-based foodservice buyers of fresh or minimally processed fruit and vegetables. WA-based wholesalers of fresh fruit and vegetable products who operate as further processors or in a break-to-sell mode, where they buy in large quantities (pallets lots) and sell in smaller quantities (cartons or individual pieces). International or interstate sellers of fruit and vegetable products into the WA market. International or interstate export market buyers of WA-produced fresh fruit and vegetable products. Volume supplied and purchased: The project has been based on a THRUchain analysis of the WA fruit and vegetable supply chain, identifying the value and volume flows from source through the wholesale channels to the retail and foodservice channels to the household. WA production volumes were defined using the best available data. The primary sources of data used were Ag Produce Commission, DFAT import export data, ABS-ABARES data and discussions with key stakeholders. Wholesale demand was modelled based on market intelligence of retail outlet sales of supermarkets, specialist greengrocers/markets, and other retailers. The value of the annual sales in the retail channel reconciles with the Mealpulse panel data household spend on fruit and vegetables. Market intelligence was gathered from industry sources for foodservice purchase volumes and values. All volumes are reconciled through the WA supply chain from production through to the distribution channel at a product level. Where the WA production plus imports was above WA wholesale volumes, it led to assumptions on interstate exports. Similarly, where WA production less international exports was lower than WA wholesale volumes, it led to assumptions on interstate imports. Where these assumptions were formed, activity in these categories was confirmed through wholesale market data that revealed product origin. All PMA-based traders sales are included in the PMA share. Distribution channel outlet numbers: Figure 2 profiles the outlet numbers by retail and food service subchannel. Retail Foodservice Master channel Grocery Specialised Takeaway Dining out Event/leisure Institutional Sub-channel Full-service supermarkets Independent supermarkets Greengrocer & markets Sandwich bars Independent takeaway Quick-serve restaurants (QSR) Restaurants & cafes Pubs, clubs & function centres Event, leisure & travel Accommodation Hospitals Aged care Defence Correctional Corporate (workplace) Education Figure 2: Number of Fruit & Vegetable Outlets in WA , ,110 Page 3 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

7 4 Volume market sizes and shares for year ending 30 June 14 Total supply of 510,013 tonnes, which is 3% or 16,068 less than the 2012/13 total supply of 526,081 tonnes. Total WA consumption, being retail and foodservice, of 416,684 tonnes, which is 2% or 10,407 tonnes less than 2012/13. Total international exports were 73,358 tonnes, which was 3% or 2,138 tonnes greater than 2012/13. Total imports (international and interstate) were 130,241 tonnes, which was 2% or 2,408 tonnes less than 2012/13 The PMA external traded wholesale volume was 214,246 and 9.4% or 22,113 tonnes less than 2012/13. This flowed through to a PMA wholesale volume The major impacts of the PMA Traders market share have been profiled in Figure 4 on page 7. Page 4 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

8 5 WA wholesale fruit and vegetable market size & PMA traders share This section defines the supply chain in which the Perth Market Authority (PMA) operates and the distribution channels that acquire fresh fruit and vegetables. It profiles the volumes that flow from supply into these distribution channels and the PMA share of the wholesale market interface. Figure 3 quantifies these volumes and the PMA wholesale market share based on external trade. For the year ending 30 June 2014 the PMA wholesale fruit and vegetable market share at 42% of volume and 56% of market value, which reflects market share reductions of 2.9% in volume and 2.0% in value. The apparent reasons for this market share change are summarised in section 6.0. Figure 3: PMA Wholesale Market Share - External Trade Page 5 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

9 Analysis notes: 1. Sales of non-fruit and vegetables, including eggs and honey etc., are valued at $8.5 million, and are excluded from PMA wholesaler sales. 2. Allowances have been made for wholesale sales not captured in the available wholesale trading data. 3. There is a level of added value trading where product is sold more than once before being sold to the final distributor. This has been quantified in previous years analysis but it has been determined the available data does not allow this to be accurately defined. Therefore it has not been quantified in this analysis for the year in review. 4. All international and interstate export sales are included in the definition of the wholesale market as PMA tenants engage in some export activity. If these sales were excluded from this assessment for the year ending 30 June 2014 it would increase PMA market volume share by 9% to 51%. 5. This assessment is based on the year ending 30 June The total WA market volume decreased over the previous year by 3.1%, while the total market value increased by 0.4%. This indicates that fruit and vegetable values have increased more than market volumes for the year in review. Page 6 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

10 6 Apparent Wholesale Market Share Impacts A number of influences combined to impact the PMA traders wholesale market share and the major impacts are summarised in the chart below. The PMA volume share loss of 2.9% on last year occurred in a market where prices were higher and volumes were lower. The total wholesale market decreased by 3.1% or 16,068 tonnes, while PMA trader s volumes decreased by 9.4% or 22,113 tonnes. This analysis has determined that the total market average wholesale price per kg increased over the previous year from $2.08 to $2.15 or by 3.4%. The same analysis for PMA traders reflects an increase of $2.12 to $2.31 or by 9.0%. value crop with a major contribution to interstate export volumes. Interstate exports are an area that typically see less involvement from PMA traders. Another factor was a higher volume of imported stonefruit, of which a large share went through the PMA wholesale market. Varying growth levels across the distribution channels, also impacted PMA share due to PMA s varied exposure to these channels. Particularly significant impacts arose from corporate supermarkets and international exports, which both increased in share of total wholesale trade over the period. These are two channels to which PMA does not hold high exposure and therefore their growth served to reduce PMA Traders share. PMA traders have lost wholesale market share due to lower exposure to the distribution channels that source produce directly such as corporate supermarkets and exporters. Retail competitive intensity has continued to increase in the West Australian market, with all retailers seeking to secure gains as food consumers adjusted to the expanded trading hours and settled on new shopping patterns. The level of competition between the corporate supermarkets has intensified and been fuelled by the low growth conditions of the total retail food market. Other factors that have contributed to the retail competitive intensity include; Figure 4: Impacts on PMA traders share in 2013/14 A decrease in West Australian production volumes has influenced the difference in these price increases. This is particularly true for Avocadoes, which are a higher The national expansion of Aldi and Costco. Both of these retailers are yet to reach WA, but the gains these retailers have captured in other states have increased the need for corporate retailers to lift performance across Australia. The expansion of online food sales, which is currently a low level of sales compared to conventional retailing, but appears, poised to increase. In these conditions the supermarket operations of Woolworths and Coles have both captured growth, which has come from other retailers. In these conditions the specialist greengrocer and independent supermarkets, which once enjoyed the advantages of near exclusive access to Sunday trade, have Page 7 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

11 been under pressure. However, within this sector some multi-store specialists have generated gains through a combination of store expansion and strong value. capitalise on the second year of access to WA, with experience gained from the initial 2012/13 season of access to growers from all regions of the NT. The economic settings have fostered the growth of imported products, with consumers seeing them as acceptable on value and quality. The optimum nature of these settings in the next 12 months will be challenged by the declining value of the Australian dollar. The volume of advertised retailer promotional activity was lower than the previous year, as retailers reduced their commitments to week long promotions and shifted their focus to instore based promotions. The competitive pressure has also flowed through to the retailers buying strategies as they seek to maintain trading margins. All indications are this has led to some retailers reviewing the advantages they can capture buying direct from producers, with a focus on consistently-available high volume products. Competitive intensity is flowing through to impact retail market share and retailer sourcing strategies, which has potential to move more volume to direct buying, which is largely outside the PMA complex. More imported fruit is becoming available in the West Australian market, with 12,224t entering the state in 2013/14, a 2,451t increase on the previous year. US stonefruit and table grapes entered the market for the first time in 2013, largely counter seasonal to domestic WA production. At a price of approximately $7 per kg, these products are clearly adding to market value and may have brought some life to the fruit category for a traditionally quiet fruit offer during the cooler months of the year. WA consumers have also continued to welcome US cherries, and the WA market is considered one of the most promising for US cherry suppliers. Mango suppliers from the Northern Territory were also able to While these imports have added value to the market overall, there has been some downside in the price premiums earned by local producers of the same lines, particularly in overlapping early seasonal windows. Growing volumes of imported fruit is adding value to the West Australian market, particularly during the traditionally limited winter fruit offer. The imports are challenging early season price premiums of some domestic suppliers, however. Changing availability of local products during 2013/14 has had an impact on the volume flowing through the Perth Market. Avocados have been a prominent example of this, with the crop experiencing a down year in their biennial bearing pattern volume went from 18,575t in 2012/13 to 6,163t in 2013/14. That adds up to a removal of more than 12,000t from the WA market, albeit with much of that volume bound for interstate and international export. The crop will return to an up year in 2014/15, and the industry forecasts increasing production volumes from WA growers to reach more than 23,000t in 2014/15. Production volume from the Carnarvon region also experienced a decline as a result of low rainfall. Bananas experienced the largest decline, while melons also saw reduced harvests. Reduced local production volumes clearly impact the wholesale market size, and depending on the crop can influence availability of stock, and as a result PMA traders market share. Page 8 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

12 7 Consumption and shopping influences and trends This analysis has identified a number of consumer trends that influence how households buy their food and how food is moving through the West Australian fresh produce value chain. These trends are anchored in the pressures felt by time-poor consumers, while being balanced by consumers drive to seek better value. These two almost opposing drivers continue to set the scene for how the West Australian produce sector will be pushed to develop in coming years, and the opportunities and challenges for the industry will be determined by how these two motivations are exhibited by consumers. The practical implications of these are described below. WA population growth has again exceeded national levels for the year in review, meaning the size of the retail and food service markets for fruit and vegetables will continue to increase as these new residents fall into normal food buying behaviour. For the year in review, the population in WA is estimated to have increased by 2.7%. This was a higher growth rate than national population growth of 1.7%, reflecting that WA population growth was higher than other states. This higher growth level has flowed through to increased demand for fresh fruit and vegetables at retail and through food service providers. This level of growth has not been enjoyed by all other states. The WA market for fresh fruit and vegetables has continued to enjoy population- based demand growth beyond the levels of other states. Consumers shopping is now set in a higher frequency top up mode, enabled by extended shopping hours in the West Australian retail market. Two thirds of trips are top up shops, and as a result households are less likely to plan ahead and are increasingly looking to buy for that evening s meal. The shift has also meant consumers are looking for smaller portions, which are suitable for the one to two day meal planning decisions they are making. It also means they can avoid the waste of excess product at home, an issue that is becoming an increasing cause of concern for Australian consumers. Smaller portions, particularly for prepacked products which offer grab and go convenience for time-poor shoppers, are on average earning a higher price per kg than larger portion products. The trend towards more food being purchased in this smaller product form has been a factor in the rise in the average price per kg of the total fruit and vegetable market. Increasing shopping frequency is changing the pack sizes of product consumers are buying, and the increasing volume of food being sold in small portions at higher per kg prices is having an upward effect on the overall market value. Provenance interest is shifting from local to better understanding the product source. Consumers are looking beyond where it s from and local to wanting to understand more about the product, including making a connection with growers. This desire is not limited to local products, but incorporates factors such as whether the produce is organic and or free from GMOs. As such, these factors are now increasingly becoming part of the provenance story. This shift in consumer thinking has implications for the acceptability of imported products, with consumers welcoming Page 9 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

13 the availability and accepting the quality and value. This platform of product acceptance could flow on to provenance stories for imported product. In WA the provenance shift is set against a background of organised promotion for local production. The rising level of imported produce will challenge the strength of this state-level provenance story. Consumers are purchasing more ready meals, with this pattern a logical extension of consumers buying more food in prepared forms (pre-sliced produce as an example), with several such prepared components easily assembled into a meal. As the frequency of this purchase pattern increases, it means consumers will need to purchase fewer individual ingredients. In the eastern states the ready meals offer is broader, and as this offer expands in the west, new producers may be set to enter and change the dynamics of the supply chain. It is likely these assemblers will bring with them a different set of purchasing requirements, centred on sourcing a number of ingredients they can combine into a meal that can be sold as one item. Ready meals present consumers with a mix of convenience and low waste, and are now being offered at a competitive price point. The range and quality has improved and is becoming comparable to eating out. The opportunity has been acknowledged and reflected in heavy investments from producers, manufacturers and retailers. Growth in ready meal sales will take away sales of ingredients as consumers shift the preparation to meal assemblers. The sourcing arrangements of these meal assemblers will be of significance to PMA traders share as demand for this product form continues to grow. Page 10 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

14 8 Appendices Model framework - A reconciliation of supply & demand 8.1 Adding Value Trading This value adding occurs in a number of circumstances and is essentially driven by the efficiency of wholesalers, buyers and sellers specialising in what they do and employing the services of others to support their needs. These activities are assessed as market efficiencies, and reflect that PMA tenants and other wholesalers are selling services as well as products. In these instances product is traded more than once in the wholesale market before it is sold to the last distributor. This typically occurs when one wholesaler secures a larger quantity and sells to another who breaks it into smaller quantities to resell. WA production Imports International Imports Interstate Total supply PMA data PMA share = higher data accuracy Wholesale demand Exports international Retail Food Service Exports interstate These types of trades are common and efficient ways of distributing fruit and vegetable products, as it is not feasible for all wholesalers to be primary sourcing agents for all types of fruit & vegetable products. Equally it is not efficient for every buyer to trade with every wholesaler to buy what they need. This analysis concludes that this type of trading is part of PMA traders income. This trade has been quantified in previous years PMA traders market share analysis but that quantifying this trade is not possible due to the varied nature and availability of definitive data. 8.2 Methodology to replicate future share calculations This section details methodology used and the process required to replicate the market model outputs for future market share calculations. The process developed and used was based on the principle of reconciling volumes and values through the WA fresh fruit and vegetable supply chain. It was anchored by collating data that enabled profiling from both demand and supply ends of the supply chain Supply Profile To build the supply profile, the following data sources were used: 1. WA DPI, Agricultural Produce Commission (APCWA) 2. ABS and ABARES production data 3. DFAT international import and export trade statistics 4. Wholesale market trading data from Ausmarket services 5. Conferring with key industry participants on interstate imported volumes 6. Category profiles prepared by Freshlogic that have quantified state-based production volumes Page 11 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

15 In consolidating the supply data, the following approach was adopted: proportion of food dollars spent on food eaten away from home. 3. ABS data on number of households in WA. 4. Freshlogic data sources for the retail channels captured detail of: 4.1. The number of outlets by the following types of retail channels The analysis was undertaken at a product Vegetables category level in volumes and then Asian Vegetables Apple Fruit converted to dollar values at the total Asparagus Apricot level. The product categories used are Beetroot Avocado Corporate supermarkets listed at right. Broccoli Banana Independent supermarkets Cabbage Bean Preference was given to APC data for Greengrocer and markets Capsicum Berry (Not strawberry) fruit, which was available in total tonnes Carrot Cherry and viewed as more complete. APC data Cauliflower Coconut for vegetables was processed into tonnes Celery Custard Apple Chilli Grape for further analysis by adopting the Corn Grapefruit wholesale market common pack sizes. Cucumber Kiwifruit In the absence of all other data, ABS data Eggfruit Lemon was used, but only in a minority of Garlic Lime Ginger Mandarin products. Herbs Mango Market value was established using the Leek Nectarine CFVIWA total price per kg, except for Takeaway Lettuce Orange export and import data, where sufficient Melon Other Fruit Dining out Mushroom Passionfruit data was available to calculate these Event and leisure Onion Peach inputs separately. Other Veg Pear Demand profile Peas Pineapple Potato Plum To build the demand profile, the following Pumpkin Strawberry data sources were used: Radish Rhubarb 1. Mealpulse panel household Salad Mix Soup Packs expenditure data for fruit and Spinach vegetables. Sprouts 2. ABS household expenditure for fruit Sweetpotato and vegetables for WA and Squash Tomato Zucchini Page 12 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version Other retail (i.e. direct to home etc) 4.2. The average fruit and vegetable sales per outlet The sales contribution by product category Assumed retail margins, waste levels, and cost of distribution were identified and discounted from retail sales values to arrive at wholesale purchase values. 5. Freshlogic data sources for the food service channel captured detail of: 5.1. The number of outlets operating in food service distribution channels. These were collated by type and grouped into: Institutional 5.2. Information on the proportion of purchases that fruit and vegetables represent in food service channels. It is not possible to define the value of what consumers pay for fruit and vegetables eaten out of home as these purchases are typically made for meals The total food service wholesale sales were gathered through discussions with those servicing this sector The sales contribution by product category. 6. Export volumes and value data was drawn from export sales captured by DFAT.

16 8.2.3 Modelling design to arrive at PMA traders market share A. Wholesale demand volume confirmed based on calculated retail, food service, and export volumes. B. Wholesale supply volumes confirmed by calculation of total supply volumes. C. Gaps and misalignments identified and reconciled. If required, adjustments were made to the volumes of interstate imports into WA and exports out of WA. In instances where there was no evidence to support import and export volumes, overriding preference was given to demand volumes and production was adjusted. It is should be noted that all imports contributed 25% of total supply into the wholesale market and exports distributed 18% of the wholesale volume. Total wholesale market volumes and values calculated. D. PMA traders volume and value market calculated based on CFVIWA data. E. PMA share calculated as an output of C divided by D. The results are on page 5. Page 13 Commercial in confidence for Perth Market Authority Final version

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