E-mobility Quarterly Index

Transcription

1 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Automotive Competence Center & Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen E-mobility Quarterly Index Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart Dr. Thomas Schlick Dipl.-Kfm. Ingo Olschewski Dipl.-Ing. Markus Thoennes May 212

2 Dear reader, In key automotive markets around the world, important decisions are being made to sustainably anchor e-mobility in our mobile society. National governments and global leaders of the automotive industry intend to take the lead here in terms of customer demand and developing the technology portfolio. Three key indicators show whether they are able to do so: 1. Technology: Technological development of the vehicles of national OEMs and national subsidies for vehicle development 2. Industry: Regional value added to the automotive industry by national vehicle, system and component production 3. Market: Size of the national market for e-vehicles based on current customer demand Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and fka have consolidated these indicators in the E mobility Quarterly Index, making it possible to compare the competitive positions of the automotive industry's seven leading countries (Germany, France, Italy, US, Japan, China and South Korea). The index also looks at the automotive markets using globally uniform parameters (Fig. 1). Methodology Data used in the comparison 1. Technology: Technological performance and cost/benefit ratio of EVs, both those currently available on the market as well as those soon to be launched National e-mobility R&D programs (time frame 215) only research funding programs were considered (i.e. no industry loan programs, budgets for purchase incentives, etc. were taken into account) 2. Industry: Cumulative national vehicle production (cars, light-duty trucks) for , including BEV and PHEV Cumulative national battery cell production (kwh) up through Market: Number of new EVs registered in Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Automotive Competence Center & Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen 2

3 Quarterly Index: Q2 212 The E-mobility Quarterly Index for Q2 212 illustrates the relative competitive positions of the world's top automotive countries along the three indicators of technology, industry and market (Fig. 2). Summary of competitive position comparison: The E-mobility Quarterly Index highlights clear differences in the competitive positioning of the various automotive countries. Germany, France and South Korea hold strong positions regarding technology, while Japan and the US have a clear lead in regional value add. Vehicles of national OEMs in the US are weaker in terms of technology, despite bigger national funding programs. The size of the e-mobility sales market is not necessarily proportional to the size of the national automotive sales market: South Korea and China in particular report very low nationwide sales shares for EVs. Key reasons for Japan's leading role in vehicle supply and demand are its intensive market cultivation and the incentives it offers. Japan's R&D funding is currently very low, which could have a negative impact on the country's competitive position over the long run. By contrast, South Korea's position is set to improve considerably, thanks to its strong technological base and recently launched government programs. Core statements of the E-mobility Quarterly Index for Q2 212: 1. China: China's position in the E-mobility Quarterly Index is weak regarding regional value-add (Fig. 5, Fig. 6), with low figures in current vehicle and battery cell production. In terms of technology, China has a considerably weaker position concerning its EV models currently offered or being launched by national OEMs. The same is true for locally manufactured battery cells (Fig. 3). However, China has far and away the largest R&D budget (Fig. 4). This points toward a significant move forward in vehicle technology in the long run. Vehicle demand in the Chinese market is extremely low, and is currently characterized by cars in the fleets of government institutions. As the Chinese government's development plans include a strong shift toward focusing on hybrid technology, there is no reason to expect any changes here in the medium term (Fig. 7). 2. South Korea: According to this issue of the E-mobility Quarterly Index, South Korea holds the top position for the technology indicator (Fig. 2). This is borne out by the high technological level of the EVs introduced by South Korean OEMs (especially as regards cost/benefit ratio) in combination with the large amount of government support for e-mobility (relative to GDP Fig. 4). Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Automotive Competence Center & Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen 3

4 However, the country currently produces little value-add in EVs and PHEVs (approx. 2, vehicles in 215, Fig. 5), but more local production for li-ion battery cells (3, MWh, Fig. 6). Sales of EVs are still negligible. South Korea is taking steps to remedy these weaknesses: rolling out further market development actions, e.g. probably a purchase incentive, plus quickly putting Korean EVs on the market. 3. Germany: In a worldwide comparison, German OEMs are well-positioned in terms of technology, even if there are not too many cars currently available on the market. Even if in some cases they have a weaker positioning in this segment, OEMs in other countries (France, Japan, South Korea) similarly offer highly attractive concepts in terms of value for money. The high technological level of German EVs is based on the large amount of R&D funding (large in both absolute terms and relative to GDP see Fig. 4). This also offers a basis for gaining ground in the technology race concerning storage (see Technology Roadmap Fig. 8). In contrast to its technological position, Germany is not developing its market sufficiently compared to its peers. The same is true of South Korea. The regional value-add is higher where countries devote significantly more resources to promoting the industry. Europe's automotive leaders have much weaker positions here. There is also further potential for improving the number of new EVs registered, which is consistently subsidized in other countries (except South Korea see Fig. 7). Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Automotive Competence Center & Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen 4

5 Chart appendix Figure 1: A leading position of Automotive countries depends on three parameters these are combined to the "Quarterly Index emobility" "Quarterly Index Electromobility" Three parameters: Technology, Industry, Market Index "Technology" X 6% 4% Electric Vehicle Performance National RD&D Funding > Performance of electric vehicles (battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles incl. range extended EV's) > National R&D funding for electric vehicles and electrical power train/storage systems for EV's Index "Industry" X 6% 4% Electric Vehicle Production Supplier Production Footprint > Value add in the respective countries: vehicle assembly > Value add in the respective countries: cell manufacturing Index "Market" 1% Electric Vehicle Sales Ratio > Size of national market (EV/PHEV as percentage of total sales) Figure 2: Our "Quarterly Index Electromobility" (Q2/212) shows the relative competitive position of the seven leading automotive countries "Quarterly Index Electromobility" Overview Q2/212 INDUSTRY 5 4 Japan Market 3 United States 2 Germany 1 China France South Korea Italy TECHNOLOGY Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Automotive Competence Center & Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen 5

6 Figure 3: Technology: Germany, France, Korea with best vehicle performance following different pricing strategies USA with weaker position Performance vs. sales price ratio of market-ready BEV and PHEV ELECTRIC VEHICLE PERFORMANCE COUNTRY Low China Ø Sales S l Price Med [EUR] France > Highest average vehicle price (high national purchase incentives) good > Weak technological position, worst performance/sales price ratio (Tesla, Fisker) > Balanced performance/sales price ratio, 2nd best position for vehicle technology index (1st: Korea) Korea Germany USA > Poor technological performance, comparably high sales prices (European level) > Low-price strategy, partially based on vehicle concept (Renault Twizy) Japan > Best technological performance, but no vehicle yet available in showrooms poor High Ø Technology Level [Points] 5 Note: No market-ready, mass-produced EV/PHEV models from Italian OEM Figure 4: Technology: China leading in emobility-related R&D funding Germany follows straight National R&D funding for emobility [EUR m]/[% of GDP] 7,135,169 Excl. Lightweight material research 2,484 funding as part of NPE program 2,93 Note: major subsidies awarded are manufacturing, not R&D related these are not included,15,2 1,354, ,11,12,12 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Automotive Competence Center & Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen 6

7 Figure 5: Industry: EV/PHEV production in 215 dominated by Japan Production volume in Germany higher than in China Expected production of EV and PHEV in 215 COUNTRY EV/PHEV PRODUCTION VOLUME [k units] TOP-3 MODELS Nissan Leaf, Toyota Prius III PHEV, Mitsubishi imiev 49 Chevrolet Volt (PHEV), Ford Focus EV, Fisker Karma (PHEV) 33 BMW i3, VW e-up!, Smart ForTwo ED 3rd Gen. 17 Chana Benben Mini EV, Geely, Nano Lynx/Panda, BYD E6 15 Renault ZOE Z.E., Renault Twizy Technic, Renault Fluence Z.E. 14 Hyundai BlueOn, Kia Ray 2 Note: No significant EV/PHEV production in Italy expected Figure 6: Industry: Japanese and Korean players dominate cell manufacturing in 215 Korean also active in the US Key cell manufacturer and production by country in 215 EXPECTED 215 GLOBAL MARKET SHARE1) 215 CELL MANUFACTURING BY COUNTRY [MWh] = USD 8.6 bn 7,619 23% 3,41 16% 2) ,662 13% 1,516 9% 645 8% 7% 3% > Main cell manufacturing hub > Figures do not include coated electrodes shipped by NEC to Europe for cell assembly by AESC > Mainly LG and Samsung/SB-Limotive > Mainly A123 and Korean manufacturer with local production (LG) > Mainly local for local > Mainly LiTec > Assembly of AESC cells in UK and Portugal planned, coating in Japan > No significant cell production 1)USD based, Market value derived using USD 73/kWh for hybrids, USD 56/kWh for PHEV, and USD 4/kWh for EV in 215 2) Includes Primearth's share Source: Roland Berger LiB market model as of QI/212 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Automotive Competence Center & Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen 7

8 Figure 7: Market: EV/PHEV sales currently clearly depends on incentives given by governments % BEV/PHEV [Sales 211].5 US 5,183/.29 Japan 8,652/.36. Germany /.8 Korea /. 1, 2, Italy 3,5/.2 3, 4, 5, France 5,/.2 China 5,336/.2 6, 7, 8, 9, 1, INCENTIVES [EUR] 1) 1)On national level, partly additional incentives on regional levels Figure 8: Technology: Major innovations in cell material technology are expected to emerge after 215 HCMA and/or 5-V Spinel Li-Ion key materials roadmap NCA NCM 5V spinel Sulfur Cathode LCO LCO LMO LFP HCMA LiNiPO 4 5V LiCoPO 4 5V LiMnPO 4 4V Air Anode Graphite Hard Carbon Soft Carbon Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 Graphite + Graphite Si-composites Li metal Electrolyte LiPF 6 + org. solvents (standard electrolyte) Gel-polymer electrolyte 5v electrolyte Solid polymer electrolyte Separator Polyolefin Polyolefin + ceramic coating Polyolefin + ceramic filler Rectangles indicate availability of materials in industrial quantities Source: Avicenne; Fraunhofer ISC; Roland Berger Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Automotive Competence Center & Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen 8

9 Authors Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart Partner Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Stuttgart Loeffelstrasse 46, 7597 Stuttgart Phone: Fax: Dr. Thomas Schlick Partner Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Frankfurt Bockenheimer Landstraße 2-8, 636 Frankfurt Phone: Fax: Dipl.-Kfm. Ingo Olschewski Senior Manager Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen Strategy and Consulting Steinbachstraße 7, 5274 Aachen Phone: Fax: olschewski@fka.de Dipl.-Ing. Markus Thoennes Consultant Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen Strategy and Consulting Steinbachstraße 7, 5274 Aachen Phone: Fax: thoennes@fka.de Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Automotive Competence Center & Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbh Aachen 9