HITTING BOTTOM IN EUROPE, READY FOR A BOUNCE?

Transcription

1 HITTING BOTTOM IN EUROPE, READY FOR A BOUNCE? Implications for the North American Supplier Industry Detroit, MI July 2013

2 2 Contents A Continuous drought in Europe No recovery from the crisis yet B Suppliers feel the heat Rightsizing already ongoing and inevitable with up to another 85,000 jobs at risk C Being on the bright side How suppliers still create value in a vulnerable environment

3 A A. Continuous drought in Europe No recovery from the crisis yet

4 Global light vehicle sales recovered after the crisis Much faster than expected Global light vehicle sales [m units] 79.5 SAAR e Source: IHS, Roland Berger 4

5 Most regions have bottomed out and are expected to grow further Light vehicle sales by region [m units] SAAR May ' Jan ' May ' Jan ' May ' Jan ' May ' Jan ' e Source: IHS, Roland Berger 5

6 Europe as only exemption: Continuous decline since 2007 to lowest sales level for almost 20 years European light vehicle sales 1) [m units] % Going back to 1994 Lowest volume with 13.5 m 14.0 SAAR 13.8 Jan ' Mar ' May ' e 1) EU-27 plus Norway, Switzerland, Iceland Source: IHS, Roland Berger 6

7 Same pattern for each country in the region No short-term growth engine in sight European light vehicle sales by country [m units] vs RoE -23% -2% -16% -10% -44% -59% e Source: IHS, Roland Berger 7

8 Winners and losers: Strong Korean performance and premium segment seems most resilient European light vehicle sales 2007 vs [%] VEHICLE SEGMENTS TOP 15 BRANDS Entry Mid Premium Luxury -28% -19% -14% -4% -44% -40% -39% -32% -29% -29% -27% -19% -9% -3% 1% 6% 17% 30% 36% Source: IHS, Roland Berger Total market: -23% Total market: -23% 8

9 Hitting bottom, ready for a bounce? "Company still anticipates favorable European industry production comps for 2H13. We believe this will result in an acceleration in organic growth" June 2013 "Q2 European production should not be lower than Q1, underlying a 4% decline" May 2013 "Demand firming in April and pricing stabilizing after recent weakness" Mai 2013 "BMW is on track for a new record this year Are optimistic that the momentum could be upheld in the next couple of months" Ian Robertson, BMW Sales Chief, May 2013 "Pricing has stabilized and is improving for Q2" May 2013 "Q2 business has registered momentum" May 2013 "We are very encouraged by the outlook provided by Scania, Volvo as well as Daimler's rising order intake trend." May 2013 "Our order taking in April along with the enthusiasm of our network and confirmed success of New Clio and Captur, make us optimistic" Bernard Cambier, Renault Senior Vice President, Market Area France, May 2013 Source: Press information, Deutsche Bank, Roland Berger 9

10 Several indicators point towards a recovery potential of the automotive market in Europe Recovery trends The average vehicle age in the top-5 European countries has grown from 7.9 years in 2009 to 8.7 years in 2012 Market runs about 1.6 m units below replacement as consumers scrap cars without replacing them, creating pent-up demand Inventory reduction is slowing down and expected to come to an end in Q Truck order intake has historically proven as leading indicator for European car production and has risen in Q Consumer confidence in Europe increased for the sixth consecutive month in May to its strongest level since the middle of last year Interest rates to Euro area households have steadily declined since January, following interest rate cuts by the ECB Loan volumes have risen by 15.4% in the same time frame Source: HIS, ECB, KBA, ANFIA, SMMT, CCFA, Roland Berger 10

11 1 Growth in vehicle fleet age is representative of pent-up demand Vehicle age in Spain and Italy has risen significantly Average age of vehicle fleet (top-5 countries) [years] Top-5 Europe GERMANY FRANCE UK SPAIN ITALY > Average fleet age increasing in all major European markets Italy and Spain with strong increase > Trend of holding onto older vehicles cannot continue indefinitely as purchasing a new vehicle eventually outweighs the maintenance cost of driving and old vehicle Source: ACEA, KBA, Roland Berger 11

12 2 Market runs about 1.6 m units below replacement as consumers scrap cars without replacing them, creating pent-up demand Calculation scrap volume and new vehicle registrations [m units] > European car parc (2011) 261 m > Average age 8.4 years > Technical age 16.8 years > Calculatory scrap rate 6.0% > Calculatory scrap volume 15.6 m ~1.6 pent-up demand Source: ACEA, IHS, Deutsche Bank, Roland Berger 12

13 3 Inventory reduction comes to an end leading to potential upside to production estimates Vehicle inventory level Europe [m vehicles] INVENTORY INCREASE DESTOCKING Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q e 2.3 Q4 > Inventory at dealer level estimated based on production, registration and net export data > Inventory reduction expected to come to an end during 2013 > Potential upsides to production estimates on second half of 2013 Source: IHS, Eurostat, Deutsche Bank, Roland Berger 13

14 4 Truck order intake has historically proven as leading indicator for light vehicle production and has risen in Q European truck book/bill ratio and light vehicle production Truck book/ Light vehicle bill ratio production [m units] Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Truck book/bill ratio Light vehicle production > Truck book/bill ratio has been a leading indicator for light vehicle production at many turning points > Average book/ bill ratio for key OEMs Daimler, Volvo, Scania and MAN has risen above 1.3 in Q Source: Annual reports, IHS, Deutsche Bank, Roland Berger 14

15 But it is still a rough way: We expect European sales bottoming out in 2013 with slow recovery earliest in Q4 European light vehicle sales [m units] IHS forecast Roland Berger conservative scenario e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e Source: IHS, Roland Berger 15

16 B B. Suppliers feel the heat Rightsizing already ongoing and inevitable

17 The importance of Western Europe as a production hub is further declining Western European LV production [%, m units] IN M UNITS AS % OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION % % 13.7 Rest of World 36% 28% Mar ' May '13 China NAFTA Eastern Europe Western Europe 8% 25% 6% 25% 22% 19% 8% 15% 18% 8% 14% e e Source: IHS, Roland Berger 17

18 This effect is most pronounced in the larger volume segment Western European light vehicle production by segment [m units] 13.6 Volume 2.5 Premium % % % +7% > Premium OEMs balance downturn with high export share > Global demand for premium cars keeps up strong, in particular in China and the USA e Source: IHS, Roland Berger 18

19 We expect unutilized capacity of approx. 7 m units in Western Europe resolution not in sight Capacity forecast 2016 [m light vehicles] Production capacity WESTERN EUROPE 6.8 Unutilized 13.0 Actual production 19.3 Production capacity NORTH AMERICA 1.9 Unutilized 17.4 Actual production 40.0 Production capacity CHINA 13.8 Unutilized 26.3 Actual production > Global overcapacity of >35 m in 2016, 7 m in Western Europe > Unions and governments will continue to resist plant closures in Europe > Pressure on margins will continue Source: LMC Automotive Forecasting, IHS, Roland Berger 19

20 European volume manufacturers have the most significant capacity issues Overcapacity by manufacturer in Western Europe in 2012 [m light vehicles, %] % 67% 38% 51% 38% 15% 49% 18% 13% 73% of total overcapacity in 2012 > Only a few plant closures announced Ford will close one production plant (Genk) and two mainly component plants (UK) GM Bochum closure in 2014 PSA will close plant in France in 2014 > Fiat not planning any plant closure > Renault recently signed deal with unions to avoid plant closures until 2016 Primarily volume manufacturer Primarily premium manufacturer Source: LMC Automotive Forecasting, IHS, Roland Berger 20

21 Severe impact on global supply base: Profitability is further declining since the all-time high in 2010 Key performance indicators of global automotive suppliers 1) REVENUE GROWTH [2005=100] EBIT MARGIN [%] 136 ~ ~ e e 1) n = approx. 600 suppliers; estimate for 2013 Source: Roland Berger/Lazard Global Automotive Supplier Database 21

22 Regional differences: European suppliers driving the trend so far US players start feeling the heat since Q4 EBIT margins in the automotive supply industry by HQ location 1) [%] EUROPE USA JAPAN CHINA KOREA ) n = approx. 600 suppliers Source: Roland Berger/Lazard Global Automotive Supplier Database 22

23 The street is heavily discounting European exposure US and European supplier index flat Roland Berger supplier stock index development Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 May 13 Source: ThomsonOne, Roland Berger 23

24 Consequence: Many suppliers are "rightsizing" their operations in Europe up to 60,000 jobs temporarily affected so far SUPPLIERS' REACTION: Rightsizing Europe Market situation Production R&D SG&A > Weak European car sales > Global localization of European OEMs > Reduced car production in W. Europe > Adjustment of direct and indirect labor capacity > Relocation of R&D capacity to growth markets (closer to local OEM R&D/production) > Reduction of European R&D capacity > Adjustment of SG&A headcount in line with reduced production capacity > Temporary conversion of approx. 45k to 60k jobs into part-time in 2012/2013 > Lower headcounts in Europe, while global headcount continues to grow Source: Roland Berger 24

25 Outlook: We expect 10% of the 750,000 supplier jobs being permanently at risk within the next 3-4 years Impact on supplier jobs in Western Europe TOTAL AUTO SUPPLIER JOBS AS OF JANUARY ,000 80% Operations 10% R&D 10% SG&A MID-TERM CAPACITY "MISALIGNMENT" Operations 10-13% > Current average supplier overcapacity of 5-10% > Required efficiency increase in the next 3-4 years in a recovering market SG&A, R&D 5-7% > Adjustment to reduced volumes > Adjustment due to relocation of activities MID-TERM IMPACT (3-4 YEARS) 70,000-85,000 jobs this time on permanent basis > Highest "relative" impact in France, Italy, and Spain > Highest absolute impact in Germany Source: Eurostat, VDA, ACEA, Roland Berger 25

26 To sum it up Downturn is continuing in Europe Bottoming out in 2013 with only slow recovery in Q4 Production is further going to be reduced no solution for the current 7 m overcapacity in sight Rightsizing is inevitable for the supply base up to 85,000 jobs at risk Unfavorable framework conditions (labor laws, union and government resistance) make adjustments to lower break-even point difficult But suppliers need to act now to prevent further margin deterioration Source: Roland Berger 26

27 C C. Being on the bright side How suppliers still generate value in a vulnerable environment

28 Even in a challenging market environment, some suppliers have managed to convert adversity into opportunity Roland Berger supplier index US and European suppliers [2007=100] Top quartile Index average > Relationship between the Street and auto suppliers: 3 Ds Disinterest, Distrust, Disrespect S&P 500 Euro Stoxx 50 Bottom quartile > Some suppliers manage to stand out even in challenging market conditions Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Source: Roland Berger 28

29 Top performers managed to grow revenues in a difficult environment while maintaining high margins Roland Berger supplier index US and European suppliers Avg. = 3% Market cap. appreciation (2007 vs. 2012) Market cap. Wtd. Avg. = 36% Average supplier Top quartile as of May 2013 Bottom quartile as of May 2013 Bubble size EBIT margin 2012 [%] Revenue growth (2007 vs. 2012) [%] Source: Roland Berger 29

30 Clear correlation between supplier cluster and performance: Tech Players outperforming the market also in Europe Consolidated performance by supplier cluster US and European suppliers SUPPLIER CLUSTER MARKET CAP YTD 2013 vs [CAGR %] TOTAL PERFORMANCE 2012 vs EUROPEAN PERFORMANCE 2012 vs Revenue [CAGR %] 2012 EBIT margin [%] Revenue [CAGR %] 2012 EBIT margin [%] Technology player 8.6% 5.7% 9.4% 2.1% ~4% - 6% Process specialist 6.2% 3.7% 8.2% -3.4% ~3% - 5% Indistinct player -1.8% -1.0% 5.8% -2.7% ~1% - 3% RB Index performance US/European suppliers 5.9% 2.8% 8.1% -0.9% ~2% - 4% Top Worst Source: Roland Berger, ThomsonOne, CapIQ 30

31 Top performers and technology focused companies have constantly higher and sustainable R&D investments R&D spending by supplier cluster [%] TECHNOLOGY PLAYER PROCESS SPECIALIST INDISTINCT PLAYER Max 2012 >10% ~5% 4% > Electronic focus companies with highest R&D investments > Technological leading companies like Bosch or Hella constantly invest 8-10% of their annual revenues in R&D also during a "crisis" Source: ThomsonOne, CapIQ, company information, Roland Berger 31

32 Lessons learned WHAT THE STREET VALUES > REVENUE growth > Increase in PROFITABILITY > Increase in CAPITAL PRODUCTIVITY > Alignment of strategy with change in MARKET CONDITIONS "COMMON" REACTION IN EUROPE > Achieve operational excellence along the value chain > Develop agile and flexible structures to protect margins WHAT TOP PERFORMERS DO BETTER > Drive towards technology leadership and ensure sustainable R&D investments > Tap into high growth revenue pools to ensure sustainable product portfolio to create value in a vulnerable environment Source: Roland Berger 32

33 33 When you're fumbling around, that's the moment where opportunity and disaster are close at hand. But if you can push it to opportunity, you'll get something really special. Bruce Springsteen

34 34 THOMAS F. WENDT Partner Chicago, IL USA Phone