Future trends in the rechargeable battery market

Transcription

1 September 23-25, () Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Presentation Outline The in 214 The Li-ion battery value chain Li-ion battery material Forecasts & conclusions

2 Million HEV powered by LIB Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 28 to 214 EV sold, in million units, worldwide, ,5 IIT 27 5 IIT (MARCH 211) 2 IIT 28 4 DEUTSCHE BANK (212) 1,5 IIT 29 3 IIT (MARCH 21) 1 IIT 21 2 ROLAND BERGER (211) September 23-25, 215,5 REALITY AVICENNE 27 1 ROLAND BERGER (212) AVICENNE AAB (212) Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 27, 28, 29, 21 & 211 2

3 Tons of cathode / Year $/Wh Million Units / year Million Units/Year THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 2 Li-ion 15 NiMH Portable PC sold per Year (Million) Li-ion 23 M Tablets 17 M Portable PCs Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year ,5 Li-ion 1865 cell price ($/Wh) 8 2 September 23-25, ,5 1 2, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

4 MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion 3 NiMH September 23-25, NiCD Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : Estimations 4

5 MWh MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important (9% share) 4 45 September 23-25, Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : Estimations 5

6 Billion US $ Billion US$ THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET BILLION US$ in 214 Pack level 1 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR ( ) Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE 1 Lead Acid 1 SLI September 23-25, SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools INDUSTRIAL MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : Estimations 6

7 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 214: US $ 6 BILLION Battery in 214 (M$) Others SLI 7 18 Other Applications Automotive Portable Other Applications Marine Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart 5 SLI 12 Medical Cart Other Stationary September 23-25, 215 Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes Automotive Portable US $ 2 Billion for other applications Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes Lead Acid LIB 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 215 7

8 M Wh M Wh LI-ION IN 214 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 4 M cells 46 MWh 13 6 M$ (2) CAGR 24/ % per year in Volume +14% per year in value 6 Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, (1) 4 Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, (1) September 23-25, Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others (1) 215 estimation data (2) Cell level Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3 Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others 8

9 M $ M $ LI-ION IN 214 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 25 M cells 45 MWh 13 3 M$ (2) CAGR 24/ % per year in Volume +14% per year in value 16 Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, (1) 12 Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, (1) September 23-25, Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others (1) 215 estimation data (2) Cell level Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others 9

10 LI-ION VALUE CHAIN MARKET DEMAND CATHODE >1 OOO T in 214 Revenues: 2,5 B$ CAGR 4/14: +16% ANODE >55 T Revenues:,8 B$ CAGR 3/13: +14% ELECTROLYTE >45 T Revenues:,7 B$ CAGR 4/14 : 2% CELL MANUFACTURERS Revenues: 15 B$ Gross margin: <1% PACK MANUFACTURERS Revenues: 21 B$ Gross margin: <1% SEPARATOR > 7 M m² Revenues: 1,15 B$ CAGR 4/14 : 18% September 23-25, 215 BINDER 7 5 Tons Revenues:,2 B$ CAGR 8/13 : 15% ANCILLARY Revenues:,8 B$ 1

11 CELLULAR PHONES FORECASTS Cellular phones demand (M Units) CAGR : +6% 4 OTHERS INDIA ASIA CHINA JAPAN EUROPE USA Cellular Phones Drivers Emergent Lam. 5% Renewal ratio increase Cyl. 25% Pris. 25% LIB cell format (Volume) 214 Smartphone penetration increase LIB cells demand Polymer penetration: 5% -> 75% September 23-25, % 8% 6% 4% 2% % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Polymer Prismatic LIB cells for cellular phones trends Laminates ratio increase Increase of Thickness Increase of >14 mah capacity 11

12 PORTABLE PCS FORECASTS Portable PCs demand (M Units) Almost stable Emerging Mature Pris. 1% Lam. 19% Portable PCs trends Mature stable or decreasing Growth driven by Emerging Cyl. 8% LIB cell format (Volume) 214 Ultrabook is increasing (2 (1) to 6% in 213 (2) ) ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 21 to 33% in 212 September 23-25, 215 Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy LIB cells demand Polymer penetration: 2% -> 4% 1% 8% 6% Laminate 4% Prismatic 2% Cylindrical % (1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel LIB cells for portable PCs trends Thinner cells Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 21 to 28% in 225 > 28 mah for Premium/corporate 2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 12

13 MWh M cells/year 225 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES LIB, MWh, by application (3C) 7 CAGR 14-25: + 1% LIB, M cells, by form factor (3C) Others Household Toys MP3 Video Games 4 3 Digital Camera Camcorders 3 2 Cordless Phones Tablets 2 September 23-25, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Portable PCs Cellular Phones Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 213 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 213 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 13

14 CO2 Emission (g/km) Crude Oil Price - US $ / Barrel Gasoline Price US$ / Gallon WHY X-EV? MAJOR DRIVER: CO 2 regulation worldwide: From 213 to 214 Oil price decrease but HEV sales increase by 5%, P-HEV by 3% and EV by 6% Price of the WTI 1 barrel of oil, US $ , , ,5 1 2, Source: September 23-25, Petroleum consumption worldwide Million barrel per day Europe USA Japan China Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government Note 1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate 14

15 Penetration of hybrids in the globale sales Million HEV WORLDWIDE IN M HEV Growth : +5% From 1,9 M to 2 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, ,5 2, TOYOTA OTHERS 3% 25% 1,5 2% JAPON 15% 1, 1% September 23-25, 215,5 5% USA, % EUROPE Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 15

16 P-HEV & EV SALES (YEARLY) CHINE 5% Others OTHERS 7% 7% US 25% P-HEV sales EUROPE 22% US 41% EV sales CHINA 31% JAPAN 11% JAPON 25% EUROPE 26% 25 2 Others % Others CHINA VW BMW Volvo Honda % Mitsubishi 15 Toyota Tesla Renault 1 Ford 1 Smart Ford MITSUBISHI September 23-25, Toyota 5 NISSAN GM Volt, Ampera Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 16

17 LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS B$ WORLDWIDE >5 GWh invest from 211 to 214) < 7 B$ invested from 214 to 217 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1) Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing September 23-25, ATL ( ) BYD ( ) TESLA ( ) LiTec GmbH Panasonic EV SK Energy Mitsubishi H.I. NEC Tokin AESC Japon Hitachi Vehicle Energy SAFT SAFT US BAK Lishen Nissan-Renault (Port) Blue Energy Toshiba Nissan - Renault (UK) LG Chem Rusnano-Thunder Sky Lithium Energy Japan Hitachi Vehicle Energy SB Limotive GS YUASA Dow Kokam Nissan-Renault (Fr) Ener1 Sanyo A123 JCI LG Chem BYD Sony NISSAN Motor US PANASONIC TESLA, ATL, BYD Investments: 15 $ / kwh Average Investments: 25 $ / kwh M$ TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 215 TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Feb 215 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

18 Aircraft Automotive Mobile Background SAFETY ISSUES Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns In the 8 s, lithium metal batteries were put into the s (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire ( Thermal runaway ) CONSEQUENCES: In 26, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 4 million USD, more than there profit-to-date September 23-25, 215 With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the s experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing!) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota) Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing

19 SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues September 23-25,

20 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY September 23-25,

21 Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack $ / kwh $ / kwh LI-ION BATTERY COST LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch) (EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV Margin Warranty 5 Pack Cost 25 Overheads Sales & Adm R&D 4 Cell Manufacturing 2 Energy, utilities Direct labor 3 Other Materials 15 Depreciation Others 2 Separator September 23-25, Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Cathode (1) 1 Electrolyte Anode (1) Active materials only * 215* 22* * For Production > 1 packs/year Cathode 21

22 Million cars Million cars EV, P-HEV, EV 225 FORECASTS Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change the game S1: HEV, P-HEV & EV forecasts up to 225 S2: HEV, P-HEV & EV forecasts up to ,5 September 23-25, ,5,65 1,4,35 5,25,17,135 3,2 2 2,2, EV P-HEV HEV ,3 1,1 1,62,75,38,27 5,16,13,17 3,2 1,9 2,1, EV in China P-HEV in China HEV in China EV P-HEV HEV 22

23 M Wh M Wh TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 225 FORECASTS Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change the game EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR : +16% / S2:+22% Total battery demand (MWh) CAGR : +11% / S2: +13% September 23-25, NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV S2 (China Explosion) NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV S2 EV China Explosion 23

24 Million 35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 22 September 23-25, 215 Micro-hybrids car Micro-hybrid car sold per year AVICENNE Optimistic Scenario JD Power Valeo Micro-hybrid batteries Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors) LTO will also penetrate this (Toshiba -> Suzuki) Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid Advantages of micro-hybrid compare to HEV Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 1 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 2% (4 times less) Much more impact on CO2 Battery Micro-hybrid Advanced lead acid Full HEV NiMH or LIB Cost ($) 3 3 Fuel saving 5% 2% Million Vehicle sold per year in

25 HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES 21 STANDARD CAR 88.5% MICRO HYBRIDS 1% MILD HEV.5% FULL HEV 1% EV P-HEV 215 Batteries Lead acid Standard Advanced Lead acid NiMH NiMH batteries Li-ion batteries September 23-25, STANDARD CAR < 44% MICRO HYBRID > 5% FULL HEV 4% EV P-HEV 2% AFTER ULTRA BATTERY Li-ion Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells 25

26 > US$ 1 B > US$ 7 B OTHER APPLICATIONS 1 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET 1 Battery in 212 (M$) 18 Other Applications Battery in 22 (M$) 18 Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic 1 1 ESS Other Stand-by 8 8 September 23-25, 215 UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 Lead Acid LIB Lead Acid LIB For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries Pack level

27 LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS Li-ion cell (B$) 45 Portable: from 29 to 65 GWh Automotive: from 1 to 6 GWh / S2: 1 GWh Others: from 7 to 32 GWh Li-ion Pack 1 (B$) Others (2) 25 Others (2) 2 Automotive Portable 2 Automotive Portable September 23-25, Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included 2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical S2: Chinese EV explosion Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis

28 MWh September 23-25, TAKEAWAYS Battery Market CAGR = +1% Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 212, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ in B$ in 22 & 15 B$ in 225 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 22 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 22 Huge Chinese Market appears in 214: to be followed! Micro-hybrid will achieve >5% Lead acid battery will be the first in 225 in volume & value A very small EV in the automotive world will represent a huge for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 22, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE GWh 28 GWh B$ 575 GWh 775 GWh Others Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, 28 LIB 83 B$ 64 B$ 6B$ 54B$ NiMH NiCd Lead Acid > 1 B$ (Pack level) 4, Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-6%) LIB for 3C (+1%) LIB for xev (+1%) LIB for Others* (+11%) Others (CAGR )

29 THANK YOU AVICENNE ENERGY Phone: Mobile: September 23-25,