View on the future of the EV industry

Transcription

1 View on the future of the EV industry Bert Witkamp Clean Energy Ministerial, Electric Vehicle Initiative, May 4th, 2015

2 Why switch to electric drive? Societal drive and pressure (MEGATRENDS!): political leaders come up with long term policies and decisions taken: To combat climate change To clean up our air and to reduce noise levels in order to improve our health To become (economically and politically) independant from fossil fuel imports For economic reasons when electric drive becomes simply more economically for consumers than other alternatives Lower total cost of ownership Lower upfront cost, higher second hand value Switch from vehicle ownership to transportation use model 2 Consumers enjoy electric drive Better driving experience Small city vehicles only available in electric drive versions Access to zero emission / low noise zones in cities House car integrated energy system and lower energy cost Non-financial motivators and social responsability

3 EV development : market (Very) high growth rate (In 2014: 43% all EV s sold, globally) 2014 vs 2013: Europe: +50%, China: + 220%, US: +22% Countries can have as many EV s on the road as they want Range of EV models on market is widening but still limited Tesla game changer?! EV market remains few model few country market, covering small % of market in customer needs and geographically EV other than passenger cars are almost not available EV s get the high(est) customer satisfaction most OEM s EV s remain expensive and need (mostly) incentives and subsidies But (battery) cost is coming down rapidly EV charging infrasturucture slowly comes in places but no clear business models yet Range anxiety anxiety still an issue EV s km ranges announced for (mid-class luxury) 3

4 New FEV s being announced (or rumoured) PHEV becoming basic offering? 300+ km range (EPA): , $ 30 40k Tesla Model III GM Chevrolet Bolt Ford Audi Nissan (Leaf) BMW (i3) VW e-golf FEV luxury cars ( Tesla fighters ) Audi (R8 e-tron, 2016, 450 km, 92 kwh; Q6 e-suv) BMW i5 Jaguar (SUV) Landrover Porsche 717 Volkswagen (500 km range by 2020) 4

5 Policymakers and politicians Awareness of the CÙRRENT state of EV technology is in general low Awareness of and belief in the cost reduction potential of EV technology in the next decade is probably even lower Politians and policymaker (like most human beings) will act and champion EV development and deployment if and when they are convinced of value of doing so AND a good chance of success! EV Technology: 1. The postive contribution in terms of Climate Change, Air Quality, Reduction of fossil fuel import and energy efficiency is evident 2. Consumers familiar withthe technology prefer it largely over conventional technology 3. EV Technology is probably on its way to become the lowest cost vehicle technology within the next decade BUT this needs to be substantiated and communicated!! 5

6 Electric vehicles are intrinsically the lowest cost technology option Already today, EV s are less expensive than ICE with the exception of the battery / fuel cell Total cost of ownership in some cases already lower today It s (almost) all about the battery cost! Around 2025: EV s likely to be the lowest cost and best appreciated cars Batteries get rapidly lower in cost AND less battery is needed / km Also: renewable energy & EV s = synergy The mass scale switch to electric drive may start within a decade All passenger cars, buses, vans & light trucks In transition phase hybrid versions as well 6 In 2030 all cars sold are electric? At a certain moment, people will not buy old technology anymore

7 Battery cost decrease faster than predicted Ref: Bjorn Nykvist and Mans Nilsson, cost estimates from peer reviewed literature, most cited grey literature and OEM s 7

8 1) EV battery learning curve: -6 to 9% per doubling Ref: Bjorn Nykvist and Mans Nilsson,

9 2) EV battery learning curve: -22 % per doubling

10 Battery cost decreases faster than predicted..and this continues after

11 A possible scenario starting after 2020 Very-low cost Light Electric Vehicles: perfect for city driving, Electric cars become the lowest cost car Small EV model km range Mid class EV models km range High end and luxury EV models, > 500 km range Charging (low power?) goes wireless and automatic Fast charging: mainly for commercial vehicles & users; 5-10% of charging for consumers Very large non-oem s enter EV market? Cars become autonomous: best fit for electric cars! Beyond cars: electric buses, light trucks, vans, autonomous & self-charging long range trucks,.. 11

12 Switch to electric is less far fetched than we think? Ian Robertson, Board member & Chief Marketing BMW: 12

13 Who is going to manufacture the EV s of the future? OEM s Tesla (like start ups) Chinese companies like BYD, Geely, Foxconn, Google? Apple? Siemens,.? Combinations of any of these? Manufacturing of EV s in the future will probably be much more democratic : very easy, low cost, small scale and open for many companies, industries and countries wanting to build up an automotive industry! Who is going to supply the electricity? 13

14 Crossing the EV Valley of Death We can and need to provide credible and clear information on the EV use and cost potential to our politians, policymakers, industries and citizens! The next 5 years will be determining in whether the still fragile and vulnerable EV can reach its full potential quickly! Your opinions and ideas? 14

15 ANNEXES: BACKGROUND INFORMATION 15

16 ICE technology: master piece of engineering Requires highly skilled labour, expensive machinery and factories 16

17 ICE emission control system: very complex and sensitive, lasting vehicle lifetime?? 17

18 EV motors: order of magnitude less complex!? Ideal for low cost mass production 18

19 Which horse (power) are we betting on? 3x more kw/kg 40x more kw/liter 4x more efficient ZERO emission LOW noise VERY low maintenance 1 moving part Source: TU Eindhoven, The Netherlands 4-6- PAGE 19

20 EV s on the road (M1 cars, models > 2007) sustained 2014 growth = 100 % EV in : in 4 years: 200 x more EV s on the road! 20

21 Full electric vehicles Europe Top 5 total: 546 = 80% Think 243 Mitsubishi I-Miev Citroën C-Zero 100 Peugeot ion Smart For Two 97 Tesla Roadster 74 Mini Electric 50 Phase 1: : Think & Mitsibushi i-miev 2012 Top 5 total: = 96% Mitsubishi I-Miev Citroën C-Zero 6583 Peugeot ion Nissan Leaf 4883 Bolloré Bluecar 1950 Renault Fluence 1211 Smart For Two : Nissan LEAF, Boloré Bleucar, Renault Fluence, Smart for Two Phase 2: GAME CHANGERS: : Tesla Model S, Nissan LEAF (2), BMW i3, Renault Zoe, Top 5 total: = 83% Nissan Leaf Renault Zoë Tesla Model S 9261 VW e-up! 5406 BMW i3 (BEV est.) 5190

22 EV: market of few models & segments FEV 4 models > 10, models > 1,000 PHEV / REEV 2 models > 10,000 6 models > 1,000 22

23 EV sales concentrated in few countries top 5: 83%, top 12: 97% A country can have as many EV s on the road as it wants: -people want them! Does not need to cost Taxpayers If polluter-pays principle Is applied Norway has imported 3,500 4,500 second hand EV s (mainly Nissan LEAF) 23

24 Do EV drivers like their cars? EV are becoming cars of choice! Rapid accelaration and smooth drive. Highest customer satisfaction reported for Tesla, Nissan Leaf, Opel Ampera, Chevy Volt,.neighbours help OEM s to sell the cars Saves money in fuel and maintenance Every morning full tank, charge at work, no need anymore to go to smelly, unhealthy gasstations ( and spending several weeks of your life there.) Help to get the air (of your city) clean! Low noise and no emissions in city traffic and traffic jams Help to fight climate change Often use / produce renewable energy to fill up! 24

25 Autonomous + Electric = breakthough 10 x less vehicles + 1/5 of the cost but same mobility 25