The Copernican Moment for Electronic Devices

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1 The Copernican Moment for Electronic Devices The Shift from Processors to Batteries as the Foundation for Electronic Devices Battery Power, 2013 Denver, CO June 7, Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc M A R K E T I N T E L L I G E N C E A N A L Y S I S B E N C H M A R K I N G

2 Table of Contents Section 1» Portable Device Design History and Dynamics Section 2» Lithium Ion Chemistries Section 3» Market Forecasts Forklift Battery (Source: Crown Systems) 2

3 Section 1: Consumer Electronics Design History

4 Trends in Portable Application Batteries: Power» The Thirst for More Battery Power Power tools require bursts of large amounts of power Cordless devices are more common on worksites than corded Cordless Driver Test Results (Source: Popular Mechanics) Smartphones replaced tablets replaced laptops replaced desktops: all have higher energy AND power requirements 4

worksites than corded Cordless Driver Test Results (Source: Popular Mechanics) Smartphones

5 Trends in Portable Application Batteries: Energy» The Thirst for More Battery Energy Battery life is the single most desired specification in consumer electronics devices Motorola RAZR: Battery Life 32 hours in 2006 (Source: Motorola) Next generation devices are being designed around the battery cell, not the CPU Motorola Droid RAZR Maxx HD: 5 day battery life 2013 (Source: Motorola) 5

Battery Life 32 hours in 2006 (Source: Motorola) Next generation devices are being designed

6 Trends in Portable Application Batteries: Load» The Downsizing of Energy Needs in Portable Devices At the same time that batteries are getting larger and more powerful, applications (like GPS apps, video compression and screen management), are reducing their energy requirements SIRF GPS chips (Source: Holux) 6

and more powerful, applications (like GPS apps, video compression and screen

7 History of Lithium Ion Power System Design in CE 1991 to 2000» Video Cameras: Early 1990 s Form Factor: Expected Cycle Life: 100 Cycle Length: 30 minutes Battery Specs: 200 mah; 3.7 V» Laptops: Late 1990 s Processor: Intel x86 Form Factor: in 4-6 cell packs Expected Cycle Life: 500 Cycle Length: 2 hours Battery Specs: 4.4 Ah; 10.8 V Chinon 1991 videocamera (Source: digicam history.com) Anker Replacement Laptop Battery Pack (Source: Digitrends) 7

7 V» Laptops: Late 1990 s Processor: Intel x86 Form Factor: 18650 in 4-6 cell packs Expected Cycle Life: 500 Cycle

8 History of Lithium Ion Power System Design in CE 2000 to 2009» Gen 1 Smartphones: Late 2000 s to Present Processor: ARM Cortex Form Factor: Lithium Polymer Prismatic Pouch Expected Cycle Life: 600 Cycle Length: 4 hours Battery Specs: 1.6 Ah; 3.7 V» Tablets: 2009 to Present Processor: ARM, Nvidia, Qualcomm Form Factor: Lithium Polymer Prismatic Pouch Expected Cycle Life: 500 Cycle Length: 6-56 hours Battery Specs: 5.4 Ah; 3.7 V 8 iphone Introduction (Source: Apple) Samsung Tab 7 Introduction (Source: Samsung)

7 V» Tablets: 2009 to Present Processor: ARM, Nvidia, Qualcomm Form Factor: Lithium Polymer Prismatic Pouch Expected Cycle Life:

9 History of Lithium Ion Power System Design in CE 2009 to 2013» Gen 2 Smartphones: Present Processor: ARM; Nvidia; Qualcomm Form Factor: Lithium Polymer Prismatic Pouch Expected Cycle Life: 500 Cycle Length: 36 hours Battery Specs: 3.3 Ah; 3.7 V Motorola RAZR Maxx HD (Source: Motorola) 9

Lithium Polymer Prismatic Pouch Expected Cycle Life: 500 Cycle Length:

10 Section 2: Lithium Ion Chemistries

11 Lithium Ion History» Secondary Lithium Ion battery first developed by Dr. Stan Whittingham at Exxon in early 1980 s» Shortly thereafter, Dr. John Goodenough at Oxford and then University of Texas developed the first Lithium Cobalt cells and later patented the first Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries» Sony launched the first commercial Li-Ion battery for consumer electronics in 1991» Li-Ion today powers most portable tools and devices, as well as most EV s and stationary storage systems John Goodenough (Source: University of Texas) Stanley Whittingham (Source: SUNY Binghamton) 11

Phosphate batteries» Sony launched the first commercial Li-Ion battery for consumer electronics in 1991» Li-Ion today powers most portable tools

12 Lithium Ion Chemistries» Lithium Ion Cobalt (LiCoO) Energy Density: Wh/kg Primary Use: Consumer Electronics Cost Range: $200-$450/kWh Manufacturers: Samsung SDI, Lishen, ATL, Sony» Lithium Manganese Spinel (LMO) Energy Density: Wh/kg Primary Use: Automotive; Stationary Cost Range: $500-$900/kg Manufacturers: LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC» Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO) Energy Density: Wh/kg Primary Use: Auto; Stationary; Power Tools Cost Range: $400-$1200/kWh Manufacturers: A123, BYD» Lithium Titanate (LiTO) Energy Density: Wh/kg Primary Use: Bus; Auto Cost Range: $800-$2000 Manufacturers: Altair, Microvast 12 LiCoO Spheres (Source: Electrohimica Acta)

Samsung SDI, AESC» Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO) Energy Density: 80-110 Wh/kg Primary Use: Auto; Stationary; Power Tools Cost Range: $400-$1200/kWh Manufacturers: A123,

13 Next Generation Lithium Battery Chemistries» Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) Energy Density: Wh/kg Primary Use: Automotive Cost Range: $700-$1100/kWh» Lithium Sulfur (LiS) Energy Density: Wh/kg Primary Use: Consumer Electronics; Aerospace Cost Range: $1400-$2000/kWh» Lithium Air (LO) Energy Density: Wh/kg Primary Use: all applications Cost Range: NA (experimental) Lithium metal intercalation in carbon lattice (Source: JECS) 13

Consumer Electronics; Aerospace Cost Range: $1400-$2000/kWh» Lithium Air (LO) Energy Density: 500-4000 Wh/kg

14 Portable Applications Markets» Consumer Electronics Current Chemistry Leader: LiCoO Potential Future Chemistry Leader: LiS Most Important Specifications: Energy Density» Power Tools Current Chemistry Leader: LiCoO Potential Future Chemistry Leader: NMC Most Important Specifications: Power Density; Safety» Defense Current Chemistry Leader: LiCoO Potential Future Chemistry Leader: LiS Most Important Specifications: Energy Density; Cycle Life» Medical Current Chemistry Leader: Lithium Thionyl Chloride (Primary) Potential Future Chemistry Leader: NMC Most Important Specifications: Safety; Cycle Life; Calendar Life Electric Drill Battery Pack (Source: Black and Decker) 14

Chemistry Leader: LiCoO Potential Future Chemistry Leader: LiS Most Important Specifications: Energy Density; Cycle Life» Medical Current Chemistry Leader: Lithium

15 Axis Title Lithium Ion Comparison to Other Batteries $1,000 $900 $800 Battery Cost Comparison Forecast in $/kwh $700 $600 Advanced Lead Acid Carbon Flow Batteries $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Large Format Li-Ion Lead Acid Small Format Li-Ion Sodium Sulfur ZEBRA $ Axis Title (Source: Navigant Research) 15

Flow Batteries $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Large Format Li-Ion Lead Acid Small

16 Section 3: Market Forecasts

17 ($ Millions) Li Ion for EV s Global Forecast BEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East/Africa $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ Source: Navigant Research 17

America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East/Africa

18 Billions Li-Ion Stationary Storage Global Forecast Lithium Ion Stationary Storage Global Forecast in Revenue USD: $8 $7 Africa Middle East $6 Latin America Asia Pacific $5 Eastern Europe Western Europe $4 North America $3 $2 $1 $ Source: Navigant Research 18

Latin America Asia Pacific $5 Eastern Europe Western Europe $4 North America $3

19 Billions USD Li-Ion Consumer Electronics Forecast $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Latin America MEA (Source: Navigant Research) 19

2020 2021 2022 North America Western Europe Eastern Europe

20 Li Ion Power Tool Batteries Forecast $1,800,000,000 $1,600,000,000 $1,400,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $800,000,000 $600,000,000 $400,000,000 $200,000,000 $ Asia Pacific North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East Africa Source: Navigant Research 20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Asia Pacific North America

21 Billions USD Global Forecast of all Li Ion Shipments $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Asia Pacific North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East Africa Source: Navigant Research 21

22 Navigant Research Advanced Battery Tracker» Navigant Research Advanced Battery Tracker Launch Date: September 2013 Primary Deliverable: Excel Database End Use Segments Tracked: Automotive; Stationary Storage; Consumer Electronics; Power Tools; Medical; Defense; Other Producer Segmentations: Factory; Country; Region; Chemistry; Materials Inputs; Specification Segmentations: MW s; MWh s; Cells; USD Revenue Update Schedule: Quarterly Chemistries Tracked: All Li-Ion Chemistries; Advanced Lead Acid Carbon; Sodium Sulfur; ZEBRA; Flow Batteries Forklift Battery (Source: Crown Systems) 22

23 NAVIGANT RESEARCH MAIN OFFICE 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 230 Boulder, CO WORLDWIDE OFFICES United States: Europe: Asia Pacific: Boulder, Colorado Washington, DC London, United Kingdom Seoul, South Korea

RESEARCH REPORT. Executive Summary: Energy Storage Tracker 3Q14

RESEARCH REPORT. Executive Summary: Energy Storage Tracker 3Q14 RESEARCH REPORT Executive Summary: Energy Storage Tracker 3Q14 Global Energy Storage Installations: Market Share Data, Industry Trends, Market Analysis, and Project Tracking by World Region, Technology,