Future Technology for Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars

Transcription

1 Future Technology for Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars How all components and structure will change completely Dr Peter Harrop, Franco Gonzalez and Raghu Das IDTechEx

2 Contents Page 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The market for electric cars Definitions Cars as part of the big picture Further details of e-car trends League table of top 13 electric vehicle companies Awkward tipping point Forecasting challenges Forecasts On-road cars Geographical demand US market in Europe and Japan China Successful strategies Plug-in market dynamics Security of forecasts New models as lead indicator MicroEVs/quadricycles etc Golf cars will have no growth Profitability Why there will be a tipping point for pure electric cars Disruptive change and merging of all parts Range extenders including fuel cells Batteries Electric motors Power electronics Increased performance and complexity Wide band gap semiconductors Supercapacitors: more than meets the eye Across batteries in cars Completely replacing batteries in hybrid cars Across fuel cells in cars Plugging in: when, where, why? Progress of Toyota and Tesla Market and technology priorities Toyota simplifies priorities and Tesla lands Gigafactory partnership 42

3 2. INTRODUCTION The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out Danger signs Government support Rapid increase in number of manufacturers Can the grid cope? Changing mobility needs urban mobility Fuel cell mobility How green are fuel cell cars really? Global Markets, the battery vs fuel cell war will be fought in China and the USA Gigafactory New forms of collaborative consumption car sharing or car clubs Narrow Vehicles PURE ELECTRIC CARS Consumer attitudes to electric vehicles The car powertrain as a portfolio of technologies Evolution of the value chain structure the opportunity window Manufacturing The arguments against Déjà vu Golf EVs Energy positive solar car HYBRID CARS OVERVIEW Construction and advantages of hybrids Evolution Market drivers Leading indicators Interesting new technology in recent concept cars Subaru's Viziv 2 Concept Toyota Supercapacitor Yaris Examples of 2015 hybrid car launches HYBRID CAR MODES AND TECHNOLOGY Series vs parallel hybrid Modes of operation of hybrids Plug in hybrids Charge-depleting mode Blended mode Charge-sustaining mode Mixed mode 111

4 5.3. Microhybrid is a misnomer Deep hybridisation Hybrid vehicle price premium Battery cost and performance are key Tradeoff of energy storage technologies Advantages and disadvantages Can supercapacitors replace batteries? Supercabatteries: lithium-ion capacitors What is a range extender? What will be required of a range extender? Three generations of range extender First generation range extender technology Second generation range extender technology Third generation range extender technology Energy harvesting Trend to high voltage Trend to distributed components Trend to flatness then smart skin LITHIUM BATTERY MANUFACTURERS COMPARED KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR CARS Three key enabling technologies become six Many new forms of range extender Supercapacitors Energy harvesting Power electronics Printed and laminar electronics Lightweight design Structural components and smart skin Innovative charging Military land vehicles and in-wheel motors Third generation traction batteries Tesla s battery coup winners and losers The theory says no IDTechEx analysis Enormity Winners and losers Infrastructure needs reduce IDTechEx forecasts more cautious Blood bath Territorial implication China and Korea 163

5 8. FUEL CELL CARS FCEV Overview Current status and potential History/development of the technology Mass market Fuel cell vs. other powertrains Hydrogen infrastructure: Value proposition Standards Necessary investment Improvement of the legislation in North America and Europe for hydrogen vehicles USA EU R&D, initiatives and demonstration projects, H2 infrastructure: EU UK Germany Nordic countries Further countries in Europe Japan South Korea: USA India China South Africa Brazil Beside the BRICS Players Traditional fuel cell car manufacturers The pioneers But some changed for batteries Some started early and still don t show clear direction Some alliances and initiatives The OEMS and their fuel cell cars in detail Daimler GM Honda Toyota VW Group Audi Hyundai Nissan Some newer suppliers and users examined 190

6 Overview Intelligent Energy Michelin F-CITY Riversimple Belenos F-500 (fuel cell range extender) Ecomove (QBEAK) GreenGT Other approaches Shale gas profitability doubts cast shadow on fuel cell cars launch 197 IDTECHEX RESEARCH REPORTS 201 IDTECHEX CONSULTANCY 202