General Assembly ETP SmartGrids Panel Session. Horizon 2020: Future of Utilities
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1 General Assembly ETP SmartGrids Panel Session Horizon 2020: Future of Utilities Thierry Pollet
2 Uncertainties Policy-Regulation Social-Economic Technology Sustainability E. Efficiency Urbanization Generation Storage ICT Battery Big Data/ Analytics Electrification Customer Smart Cities fusion Customer Network Quality Service Market Model Community Behavior Grid Micro grid Chemical Energy Storage H 2 Hydrogen Synthetic Natural Gas IoT
3 ETP Survey RESULTS Key Uncertainties for the Utility of the Future (2035) Safe Nuclear Grid-divorce Cloud Technology Uncertainty Demand Response Hydrogen & P2G Micro-grid Urbanization Survey: 184 Qualitative Responses Smart Cities Electrification Battery Technology Energy Efficiency Wind technology Policy Customer Service Market Model Design Self-generation Securing Supply IoT Big Data/Analytics Solar technology Policy on Renewables Impact
4 ETP Survey RESULTS Key Uncertainties for the Utility of the Future (2035) Safe Nuclear Grid-divorce Cloud Technology Policy, Regulation, Politics Uncertainty Demand Response Hydrogen & P2G Micro-grid Urbanization Survey: 184 Qualitative Responses Smart Cities Electrification Battery Technology Energy Efficiency Wind technology Policy Customer Service Market Model Design Self-generation Securing Supply IoT Big Data/Analytics Solar technology Policy on Renewables 4 pillars of EU policy Impact
5 ETP Survey RESULTS Uncertainty Safe Nuclear Grid-divorce Cloud Technology Demand Response Hydrogen & P2G Micro-grid Urbanization Survey: 184 Qualitative Responses Key Uncertainties for the Utility of the Future (2035) Smart Cities Electrification Battery Technology Energy Efficiency Wind technology Policy Customer Service Market Model Design Self-generation Securing Supply IoT Consensus on solar the top renewable Generation Technology & ICT Big Data/Analytics Has innovation potential Solar technology Policy on Renewables Impact
6 ETP Survey RESULTS Key Uncertainties for the Utility of the Future (2035) Safe Nuclear Grid-divorce Cloud Technology User Behavior Uncertainty Demand Response Hydrogen & P2G Micro-grid Urbanization Survey: 184 Qualitative Responses Smart Cities Electrification Battery Technology Energy Efficiency Wind technology Policy Customer Service Market Model Design Self-generation Securing Supply IoT Big Data/Analytics Solar technology Policy on Renewables Impact
7 ETP Survey RESULTS Self-generation Grid-divorce Demand Response Direct Marketing 4 of 10: 10-25% 4 of 10: 1-5% 3 of 10: 25-50% 3 of 10: 5-10% 5 of 10: 5-25% 3 of 10: 25-50% 3 of 10: <5% 5 of 10: 5-25% What do users want? (2035)
8 sources of uncertainty: solar technology $/W (DC) 10.0 PUBLIC BENCHMARKS OF RESIDENTIAL PV SYSTEM CAPEX Vivint SolarCity 0.0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Germany California Japan Chinese multi module Australia (3kW) Vivint SolarCity Source: Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Solarchoice, METI, BSW-Solar, California Solar Initiative, Vivint and SolarCity filings
9 sources of uncertainty: stationary storage EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY COST OUTLOOK, EV battery pack costs ($/kwh) 1,200 Global volumes (GWh) 400 1,100 1, BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index Global EV li-ion battery production BNEF observed values Long-term cost range 100 Moderate scenario: 15% learning rate Aggressive scenario: 22% learning rate Note: Values from are based on BNEF s annual battery price index. Cumulative production is based on total EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
10 sources of uncertainty: electric vehicles EV sales ( 000 units) Q Q Q EUROPEAN BEV AND PHEV SALES BY COUNTRY, Q Q Q Q Q Q % of new vehicle sales 68.3 Q % 2.3% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% Only passenger EV models available for sale to the general public are included. Renault Twizy and Smart Fortwo ED sales are not included Source:Bloomberg New Energy Finance, carmakers, vehicle registration agencies Other Sweden France Germany UK Netherlands Norway EV share of total car sales (%)
11 sources of uncertainty: electricity demand Average annual demand growth -2% Min 0% Mid +2% Max No data Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance New Energy Outlook, 2015
12 sources of uncertainty: European energy policy SUPPORT SCHEMES FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS PAYMENT MECHANISM Feed-in tariff (FiT) Premium Green certificates ALLOCATION Competitive auctions WIDER ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORM Centralised comprehensive capacity market Decentralised comprehensive capacity market Capacity payments Capacity reserve Considering a capacity mechanism Part of European Commission inquiry
13 Thank you Thierry Pollet
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