An Assessment for Technical, Economic, and Environmental Challenges Facing Renewable Energy Strategy in Egypt

Transcription

1 An Assessment for Technical, Economic, and Environmental Challenges Facing Renewable Energy Strategy in Egypt By Eng. Ehab Mohamed Farouk Abd El Aziz Mohi El Din A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Engineering at Kassel University Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE In RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY REMENA FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, KASSEL UNIVERSITY KASSEL, GERMANY 2011

2 An Assessment for Technical, Economic, and Environmental Challenges Facing Renewable Energy Strategy in Egypt By Eng. Ehab Mohamed Farouk Abd El Aziz Mohi El Din A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Engineering at Kassel University Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE In RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY REMENA Under Supervision of Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Schmid Prof. Dr. Mohamed Salah El Sobki (Jr.) Fraunhofer-IWES Professor Electric Power Systems Universität Kassel Cairo University Dr. Mohamed Moustafa El khayat New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, KASSEL UNIVERSITY KASSEL, GERMANY 2011

3 An Assessment for Technical, Economic, and Environmental Challenges Facing Renewable Energy Strategy in Egypt By Eng. Ehab Mohamed Farouk Abd El Aziz Mohi El Din A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Engineering at Kassel University Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE In RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY REMENA Approved by the Examining Committee Prof. Dr. Prof. Dr. Prof. Dr. FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, KASSEL UNIVERSITY KASSEL, GERMANY 2011

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES... VI LIST OF TABLES... VIII NOMENCLATURE... IX ACKNOWLEDGMENT... XI ABSTRACT...XII 1 CHAPTER ONE: ENERGY SITUATION IN EGYPT Introduction Energy Institutions and Governance in the Energy Sector The Ministry for Electricity and Energy (MOEE) The Ministry of Petroleum (MOP) Supreme Council of Energy (SCE) Energy Policy Energy Situation in Egypt Oil Natural Gas Electricity situation in Egypt Conventional Thermal Hydropower Wind Solar Nuclear International Connections CHAPTER TOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN EGYPT Energy Demand Scenarios for Egypt Energy Consumption I

5 Drivers of Energy Demand Electricity Market Design Background Present Status of Electricity Market The Proposed Electricity Market Structure Tariffs Independent Power Producers, IPPs IPP frameworks and projects developed IPPs Projects in Egypt Future IPPs Projects in Egypt IPPs Projects Evaluation CHAPTER THREE: NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGY in Egypt Introduction Incentives for the Private Sector Energy Planning Model The Methodology of Data Processing The Current Situation at the Year 2009/ The Expected Situation of Electricity By Wind Energy Situation The Land Required For Wind Farms The Available Land for Wind Projects Wind Atlas for Egypt Wind Farm Area Calculator Repowering of wind turbines Solar Energy Situation Solar Atlas II

6 3.7.2 EM Power Program, Country visit Report CSP+D potential in Egypt SolarPACES The complete evaluation for the targeted plan CHAPTER FOUR: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION Renewable Energy Market and Industry Highlights Economic and Financial Evaluation for Wind Projects Investment costs Lifecycle Cost of Energy Operations and Maintenance Financing Schemes for Wind Park Projects in Egypt Grant Scheme Self-Finance/Grant Scheme Self-Finance Scheme The expected investment cost for wind projects The Expected Projects in the East and West Nile Banks Economic and Financial Evaluation for Concentrating Solar power Investment Costs Operation and maintenance costs Costs of providing finance for CSP plants Generating costs The expected investment cost of CSP in Egypt Parabolic Trough Modeling in Solar Advisor Model (SAM) Concentrating Solar Power Plant Model Economic and Financial Evaluation for Photovoltaic PV Levelized Energy Production Cost Cost Reduction Goals Cost of Turnkey PV in Germany drops, (the German experience) III

7 4.7.4 The Expected Investment Cost of PV in Egypt Tariff Requirements PV Power Plant SAM Model General Economic evaluation and Impacts General economic indicators General economic impacts CHAPTER FIVE: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS EVALUATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Introduction The Impact of Wind Energy on Climate Change Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Pollution How Much CO2 Can Wind Energy Save? Environmental Impacts of Wind farms Noise Problems Interference Appearance Land use Impact on wildlife Safety The Environmental Impacts of Wind farms in Egypt Land characteristics and use: Flora and Fauna (without avi-fauna): Avifauna: Water quality: Air quality: Noise levels: Environmental Effects of Solar Energy IV

8 Carbon Emissions Abundant Components Cadmium Ecological Concerns CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Introduction Conclusions on the Present Work Recommendations and Proposed Action to Speed RE In Egypt Fossil-Fuels Subsidy Access to Transmission, Grid Connection Promoting and Encouraging Solar Water Heating Systems Educate the awareness about the role of wind energy Research, development and demonstration support of local industry Garbage-To-Energy- Recycling instead of Burning Energy Production per Ton of Garbage REFERENCES V

9 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1: Egypt s Oil Production and Consumption , source EIA... 9 Figure 1-2: Egypt s NG Production and Consumption , source EIA Figure 1-3: fuel input and electricity generation in power plants in Egypt, in Mtoe (EEHC) Figure 1-4: Development of Hydro Generated Energy (GWh), source EEHC Figure 2-1 Share of Egypt s Total Energy Consumption, by Sector, Figure 2-2: Share of Egypt s Total Energy Consumption, by Fuel Type, Figure 2-3: Share of Egypt s Total Primary Energy Production, by Source, 2007, F 24 Figure 2-4: Historic and Future Population Trends in Egypt, Figure 2-5: Egypt s GDP Growth, Two Scenarios, , Figure 2-6: Egypt s Real Per Capita GDP, , Figure 2-7: Egypt s Economic Growth by Sector, , Figure 2-8: Egypt s Economic Growth by Sector, , Figure 2-9: Structure of the EEHC, source H. El Salmawy Figure 2-10: Power sector structure, source H. El Salmawy Figure 2-11: The proposed Electricity Market Structure Figure 3-1: Energy Planning Model Components Figure 3-2: current situation of electricity 2009/ Figure 3-3: the forecasting of total electricity generated up to Figure 3-4: Estimate Targeted share of renewable energy up to Figure 3-5 : Elevation map of Egypt showing the meteorological stations used for the Wind Atlas for Egypt Figure 3-6: Mean wind speeds and power densities at a height of 50 m over roughness class 1 (z0 = 0.03 m) for the 30 stations in Egypt Figure 3-7 Wind resource map of Egypt: mean wind speed at 50 m a.g.l. determined by mesoscale modeling (Wind Atlas for Egypt, 2006) VI

10 Figure 3-8: offshore wind resource map of Egypt: mean wind speed at 50 m a.g.l. determined by mesoscale modeling (Wind Atlas for Egypt, 2006) Figure 3-9: Solar Atlas of Egypt, source NREA annual report Figure 3-10: Egypt coastal strip in the Mediterranean Sea in red color Figure 3-11: Elevation profile of the Egypt coastal strip in the Mediterranean Figure 3-12: Egypt coastal strip in the Red sea in red color, Figure 3-13: Elevation profile of the Egypt coastal strip in the Red sea Figure 3-14: DNI results of the Egypt coastal strip in the Mediterranean Sea, Figure 3-15: Elevation profile of the Egypt coastal strip in the Red sea, Figure 3-16: Comparison between the planned targeted and the estimated planned projects GWh Figure 4-1: SAM Model Processing Figure 4-2: result of CSP SAM modeling Figure 4-3: current performance and price of different PV module technologies, Figure 5-1: Global Power Capacity and avoided CO2 emissions ( ) VII

11 LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: Generated Energy (GWh), source EEHC Table 1-2: Hydro Power Indicators, source EEHC Table 1-3: Fuel Saved Due to the Use of Hydro Power, source EEHC Table 1-4: Total Installed Capacity of Wind Energy, source Wind Energy Council. 17 Table 1-5: Egyptian Energy overview, source EIA Table 2-1: Egypt s IPPs, source Anton Eberhard and Katharine Gratwick Table 3-1: The weighted capacity factor Table 3-2: Estimated land for wind energy, scenario 1, source NREL web site Table 3-3: Estimated land for wind energy, scenario Table 3-4: Proposed lands suitable for solar projects, source Em Power, Table 3-5: expected electricity generated from Kom Ombo, Table 3-6: Targeted Strategy by Table 3-7: Real projects Table 3-8: shortage from the targeted and planned projects Table 4-1: the expected investment of wind farm, source, 200 MW FS Table 4-2: Operation and Maintenance, source, 200 MW FS Table 4-3: technical data of 200 MW wind in West of Nile Table 4-4: the expected cost of the project Table 4-5: the results of the project of west of Nile Table 4-6: expected investment cost for CSP projects, PFC Kom Ombo Table 4-7: investment cost of 100 MW PV power plants, source PFC of PV in Kom Ombo Table 4-8: results of SAM simulation for 20 MW PV Table 5-1: Global Power Capacity and avoided CO2 emissions ( ), source wind roadmap VIII

12 NOMENCLATURE MW Mega Watt GW Giga Watt KWh Kilo Watt Hour OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries MOEE Ministry Of Electricity and Energy MOP Ministry of Petroleum EEHC Egyptian Electricity Holding Company EETC Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company SCE Supreme Council of Energy REF Renewable Energy Fund EEL Energy Efficiency Labeling GCC Gulf Cooperation Council EGPC Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation Tcf Trillion Cubic Feet LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas AGP Arab Gas Pipeline CC Combined Cycle GHG Greenhouse Gas IX

13 Mtoe Million Ton Oil Equivalent IEA International Energy Agency GEF Global Environmental Facility PPA Power Purchase Agreement BAU Business-As-Usual GDP Gross Domestic Product HEG High Economic Growth BOOT Build-Own-Operate-Transfer EHV Extra High Voltage HV High Voltage TSO Transmission System Operators EEUCPRA Egyptian Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Authority IPPs Independent Power Producers NECC National Energy Control Center LCA life cycle assessment UTM Universal Transverse Mercator A.G.L Above Ground Level Acre area unit (1 acre = 4000 m2) X

14 ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my deep gratitude to my supervisors Prof. Dr. Ing. Jurgen Schmid, Prof. Dr. Eng. Mohamed Salah El Sobki, Dr. Mohamed El Khayat for their continuous help in my work and guidance to complete this thesis. I would also like to thank them for their valuable advices in the different contexts of this document. My heartfelt thanks are due to Prof. Dr. Adel Khalil for his great help and support during the time of this work. Many thanks go to Dr. John Severs for his help and support during the various stages of this thesis work. His insightful comments and notes were of great significance for this work. Many thanks to Eng. Ehab Ismaiel for his help, and providing me by all required data and advices throughout this work. His contributions were of great impact on this work. I also wish to thank my colleagues at the REMENA Program for their friendship, support and for creating an enjoyable working atmosphere throughout my working period, specially Mustafa Shaban and Mohamed Rany. Finally, I would like to express my gratefulness to my Family, my Wife and my daughter Mai, my sons Omar and Ziad for their continuous care, patience, tolerance, encouragement, and support. XI

15 ABSTRACT Securing energy demand for next generations is one of the most challenges aspects facing any sustained development plans, due to the growing electric energy demand and Egypt as a country of limited fossil fuel resources has to diversify its energy portfolio by utilization of its renewable energy resources, mainly wind due to its economic potential and solar as proved by Egypt's wind and solar atlases. In the year 2009/2010, the total installed capacity in Egypt was MW with electricity generation 139,000 GWh, of which 89 % was delivered by thermal plants and about 10% from Hydro power with total installed 2800 MW and electricity generated is about GWh and 1% from Wind energy with total installed 550 MW and electricity generated 1542 GWh. In the solar energy field, the first solar thermal power plant of 140 MW with a solar share of 20 MW using parabolic trough technology was started the initial work since the 1st of July with estimated total energy generated of 852GWh/year. Recently, Egypt has adopted an ambitious plan to cover 20% of the generated electricity by renewable energy by 2020, including a 12% contribution from wind energy, translating more than 7200 MW grid-connected wind farms. Such plan gives a room enough to the private investment to play the major role in realizing this goal. The plan includes also a 100 MW Solar thermal energy CSP with parabolic trough technology in Kom Ombo city, and also two PV plants in Hurgada and Kom Ombo with a total installed capacity 20 MW each. Due to the high investment cost of solar energy technologies, still limited in spread all over the world on the other hand wind energy has an economic potential and becomes a commercial technology but the future potential for solar energy due to the limited land for wind energy. Current study will evaluate the Egyptian strategy for renewable energy up to 2020 and find how much the planned projects from the Egyptian government will fulfill its target, the economic study and the expected investment cost of these projects, and the environmental impacts of the renewable energy. XII

16 1. CHAPTER ONE: ENERGY SITUATION IN EGYPT 1.1 Introduction Egypt is a Middle Income Country with strong ownership of its development strategy. The Government has established a good track record of economic reform. This has led to a friendlier investment climate, which in turn has yielded a strong private sector response. However, this economic growth has been accompanied by a growth in energy use, especially higher demand for electricity implying adding about MW/year. Securing energy demand on continuous bases is a vital element for sustained development plans and Egypt as a country of limited fossil fuel resources In this sense and in line with the general framework of energy policies in Egypt, the Supreme Council of Energy in Egypt announced the strategy for the electric power based on diversifying energy sources of production, rationalizing the use of energy and expanding use of renewable energy sources as a component of energy provision. The strategy, which was approved in February 2008, aims to: Contribution of renewable energies by 20% of the total electricity generation by the year The share from the grid-connected wind power is 12% of the total electricity generation, and that represents about 7200 MW total capacities. Also, other renewable energy applications, led by hydropower and solar energy, will have a significant contribution." The polices to foster increasing private sector participation consist of two phases; Competitive Bidding, which will apply for around 5 years, and Feed-in-Tariff approaches. Current study will focus on analyzing main challenges facing the renewable energy strategy of Egypt, such as: A) High penetration of wind projects with very large scale projects will be concentrated in 3 main regions. Such situation entails considering several issues 1

17 such as wind forecasting systems, wake effects of large farms, Energy security, as well as grid stability issues. B) Implementing about 600 MW yearly during the next 10 years in spite of implementing 550 Mw during the last 10 years. C) Recent financial crises could represent one of the main obstacles cause delay in achieving the strategy target. D) How to cover the gap between the production cost and the selling price. E) Are current planned projects able to fulfill the strategy targets? If not, what are the possible scenarios to reach 20% of electricity production from renewable resources by the year 2020? F) What is the Cost/Benefit Analysis of implementing such renewable energy projects? G) Environmental assessment for the implementing different scenarios. 2

18 1.2 Energy Energy plays a significant role in any nation s development, and securing energy is one of the most important challenges facing any development plans. We can understand Energy security more when take it literally. We need to be secure in our energy in terms of the source, i.e. where it comes from, the control of the consumption and distribution of that energy, and having alternatives in place to allow us to withstand highs and lows associated with any commodity. Securing energy resources and production to meet the national demand both on the short and long terms, along with adequate attention to environmental impacts concerns, are considered vital elements for sustainable development. To face all these challenges Egypt takes a different effective measures to increase the role of RE in the energy supply and use matrix. The very high potential of renewable energy supports this orientation from the energy sector, which are not completely exploited. Egypt is also still in the development phase of legislation supporting the use of RE. A proposed electricity law is currently under construction and development. It would include some legislation supporting RE in terms of obligations or commitments on both energy consumers and producers to assign a part of their production capacity and/or consumption to be from RE. In the same time there is a renewable energy fund has been established between the Ministry of Electricity and Energy MOEE and Ministry of Petroleum MOP, funded from the difference between the international and local price of fuel saved by using RE. This difference will be split equally between the two ministries. The share of MOEE will be directed to support RE. Another incentive tool is that the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) bears the cost of wind farms connection to the 220 kv transmission lines until and including 22 kv in addition to paying a tariff per kwh about 10% higher than that paid to conventional generation companies, finally the support of RE fund box which ratified from the Egyptian Cabinet, [1]. Fossil fuels (Oil and NG) considered the main energy source, Egypt considered an important non-opec energy producer. The large Commercial quantities of oil were 3

19 first found in 1908, and more petroleum was found in the late 1930s along the Gulf of Suez. Later, there is large oil fields were discovered in the regions (Sinai Peninsula, Gulf of Suez, Western Desert, and the Eastern Desert). The Abu Rudeis and Ra's Sudr oil fields in the Sinai, captured by Israel in 1967, were returned to Egyptian control in November 1975, and the remaining Sinai oil fields reverted to Egyptian control by the end of April 1982, [2]. In terms of electricity generation, natural gas considered the main fuel source and accounts for over 70 % of the total energy mix, the remainder being met mostly by hydroelectricity. Plans are underway to further expand electricity generation capacity by utilizing the country s vast wind and solar resources. 1.3 Institutions and Governance in the Energy Sector The Egyptian energy sector consists of a variety of institutions and organizations, some of these have direct influence on the governance while others more indirectly influence activities and decisions. Ministry of Electricity and Energy, and Ministry of Petroleum, are basically taken care of the fields of electricity and of petroleum and natural gas, and their connected authorities and organizations. In addition to the ministries, a Supreme Council of Energy has been established; more details for each of them and the responsibilities will be below The Ministry for Electricity and Energy (MOEE) The main objective of the Ministry is to provide the electricity for all consumers all over the country. In order to full fill that obligation, the ministry has to: Settle the general plane & energy generation, transmission and distribution using the high-tech and the latest scientific development and supervise the execution of such plan and follow-up the different activities concerning the electrical network. Suggest the electric energy prices for all different voltage levels and different usages. 4

20 Supervise the study and execution of essential electrical projects. Publish the statistics and data relating to electric energy production & consumption Supply the technical consultancies and services in the electric fields to Arab countries and all others. Ministry of electricity and energy has a lot of goals to be achieved includes: Optimize use of available energy sources and minimize environment pollution Provide electricity with minimum price and best quality Expand utilization of new and renewable energy resources Support electricity availability in towns and cities and complete electrifying the urban areas and low population communities. Interconnect the Egyptian Electrical network to African, west and east neighboring countries Boost local and domestic contribution to design, implementation and manufacturing of electrical equipment s. Develop peaceful use of nuclear power. Restructure electricity sector to optimize investments and improve electrical services. Utilize modern and sophisticated technical systems in electricity sector's operation and activities. Develop the expertise and skills of engineers and technicians working in the electricity sector. Export Egyptian expertise in design, manufacture, negotiation, construction and operation of electrical projects. Use soft loans as much as possible, [3]. Ministry of Electricity and Energy consists of Institutions and Authorities includes: Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) which considered the main player and 5

21 consists of generation, transmission and distribution companies, Rural Electrification Authority (REA) which had been canceled, New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) the responsible entity for Renewable energy, The Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency, Hydropower Project Authority, Nuclear Power Plants Authority, Atomic Energy Authority, Nuclear Materials Authority The Ministry of Petroleum (MOP) The main strategy of Ministry of Petroleum is supporting oil and gas reserves and increasing their production, meeting the local demand of oil, gas and petrochemicals, supporting the exports and increasing Egypt's income from foreign currency and the state's treasury. In 2000, the ministry of petroleum adopted an integrated strategy, the most important mechanism to implement it is to develop and amend the structure of the Egyptian petroleum sector through separating the activities of the natural gas and petrochemicals from the activities of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, and establishing a strong entity for each of them, in addition to focusing the attention on Upper Egypt through establishing an independent entity. After adding the activities of the mineral resources to the duties of the ministry of petroleum and establishing the Mineral Resources Authority on the 14th of October 2004, the petroleum sector now consists of five strong entities cooperating and integrating to make the best use of petroleum and mineral resources wealth. They are: The Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, The Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company, The Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company, Ganoub El-Wadi Holding Company and The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority, [4] Supreme Council of Energy (SCE) The Supreme Council of Energy (SCE) considered as the highest policy making authority in the energy sector in Egypt, it was established in 1979 by the Prime Minister's decree, No. 1093/1979. The decree defines SCE responsibility as short and 6

22 long-term energy planning reporting directly to president. Membership of the council includes ministers of petroleum, electricity, industry, water supply, transportation and housing; however, the council undertakes very limited activities and has thus presently no importance for the decisions in the energy sector. 1.4 Energy Policy The energy policy is mainly prepared by The SCE. The main structure of it consists of the ministers of electricity and petroleum, with consultations in the parliamentary committee for industry and energy. Egypt's policy aims to increase the use of renewables with in part by environmental considerations, and in part by an interest in diversification of energy supply. Moreover, in Sept. 2006, the direction for using nuclear technology to generate electricity and increase dependence on RE has been announced by the ruling National Development Party, but still up to now the real construction of the power plan postponed due to more safety. The energy policy in Egypt focuses on the following; - Enhancement of natural gas utilization, - Adjustment of energy price and removal of subsidies, - Energy conservation and efficient energy use, - Promotion of renewable energy utilization. There was an agreement in June, 2004 between the Ministry of Petroleum and the Ministry of Electricity and Energy had been signed and established the Renewable Energy Fund, REF. The REF aims to support the renewable energy resources by around 0.3 Cent US$/kWh, this amount represent the difference between the prices of selling N.G. inside and outside Egypt. The methodology behind REF is that, the production of RE saves the consumption of natural gas in domestic thermal power plants and also it can be exported, incentives for installing wind farms include assignation free of charge lands, and exempting imported equipment from the Tax Tariff. For solar heating systems there is a domestic standard code, meanwhile for wind 7

23 turbines and PV systems international codes; e.g. DIN, Germanschier Loyed, and IEC are applied, [5]. The strategy for the electricity generation based on diversifying energy sources of production, rationalizing the use of energy and expanding use of renewable energy sources as a component of energy provision. The strategy, which was approved in February 2008, aims to: Contribution of renewable energies by 20% of the total electricity generation by the year The share from the grid-connected wind power is 12% of the total electricity generation, i.e., reaching more than 7200 MW gridconnected wind farms while the remaining will be from mainly hydro 4% and solar energies 4%. 1.5 Energy Situation in Egypt Oil Crude oil is located in the Gulf of Suez, Sinai and western desert and recently exploration activities have extended to southern Egypt and the east of Oweiynat. Egypt s proven oil reserves stand at 4.4 billion barrels, an increase from 2010 reserve estimates of 3.7 billion barrels, according to the Oil and Gas Journal s January 2011 estimation. The total oil production in Egypt averaged 660,000 (bbl/d), of which approximately 540,000 bbl/d was crude oil, in Crude oil production continues its decline, despite the new discoveries and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques at mature fields. At the same time, natural gas still increase in production due to new fields production liquids and lease condensates which have offset some of the declines in total oil liquids production. The total estimation of Oil consumption is about 710,000 bbl /d, which slightly higher than production and makes gap. To cover the gap with the increase of domestic demand growth, oil imports are expected to continue with some refined product exports in the short-term. 8

24 The government direction is to gradually lifting subsidized prices and targeting subsidizes more effectively to reduce the demand growth of oil, despite this is a politically and socially very sensitive issue that will be difficult to fully implement, [6]. Figure 1-1: Egypt s Oil Production and Consumption , source EIA Exploration and Production There are mainly five areas for the production of the Egyptian oil: the first and more effective is the Gulf of Suez and the Nile Delta but also the Western Desert, the Eastern Desert, and the Mediterranean Sea. Most of the fields are mature, relatively small that are connected to larger regional production systems. The Overall production of the old fields especially the Gulf of Suez is in decline. However, these declines have been compensated by small yet commercially viable discoveries in all producing areas, [6]. 9

25 Exports Egypt registered exports of crude oil about 145,000 bbl/d in 2010, although it is a net oil importer. These exports went to India (50,000 bbl/d) as the first level, followed by Italy (29,000 bbl/d), and the United States (16,000 bbl/d). The remainder of Egypt s crude oil exports went to other European countries and Asia, [6] Natural Gas The production of natural gas in Egypt is expanding rapidly with production quadrupling between 1998 and The natural gas reserves stand at 77 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), an increase from 2010 estimates of 58.5 Tcf and the third highest in Africa, according to the Oil and Gas Journal In 2009, Egypt produced roughly 2.3 Tcf and consumed 1.6 Tcf. Egypt will continue to be one of the most an important supplier of natural gas to Europe and the Mediterranean region. Figure 1-2: Egypt s NG Production and Consumption , source EIA 10

26 In 2009 the electricity sector accounted for the largest share of natural gas consumption (54 %) using mainly in electricity generation, followed by industrial sector (29 %) according to Cedigaz. While still using natural gas in transportation sector through the use and development of compressed natural gas vehicles and fueling stations a relatively small share. For residential consumption and business use, the government is encouraging the use of natural gas as a substitute for petroleum and coal. The World Bank approved loans for the Natural Gas Connections Project, in January 2008 which solve the problem of using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to natural gas through investment in new connections and to further expand natural gas use in densely populated, low income areas, [6] Exploration and Production In the Egyptian natural gas sector exploration and production activities continue its growing. While there have been marked decreases in the production of natural gas associated with oil extraction, new finds of non-associated gas fields combined with growing domestic demand and export capacity, are increasing interest. Most industry analysts place Egypt s natural gas production on an upward trend in the short- and medium-term despite the existing limitations to the sector s growth. To promote exploration in the more expensive deep-water offshore, the Egyptian government revised pricing policies by agreeing to pay more for natural gas produced in these areas, assuring continued international interest in developing these potential resources. Over 80 % of Egypt s natural gas reserves and 70 % of production is in the Mediterranean and Nile Delta but exploration and production continue in all major hydrocarbon rich areas including the Western Desert. Natural gas is locally distributed by Egypt Gas, City Gas, Natgas and Nile Valley Gas Company. It is planned to supply natural gas to 2.5 million housing units by the end of the 4th five years plan in the year It is expected that the demand on natural gas will increase to 28, 36 and 52 billion m3 in 2002, 2007 and 2017, respectively, [6]. 11

27 Exports The exporting of natural gas began in the mid-2000s after the completion of the Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP) in 2004 and the startup of the first three LNG trains at Damietta in Egypt exported about 650 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas in 2009, around 70 % of which was exported in the form of LNG and the remaining 30 percent via pipelines, [6]. 1.6 Electricity situation in Egypt The power generation in Egypt is characterized by a prevalence of natural gas as the main fuel, the absence of coal, as well as rather low generation losses (Fig 1-4) due to significant hydro-power and a substantial capacity of efficient combined cycle (CC) natural gas plants. This structure results in a rather low grid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions factor of approximately 0.5 kg CO2/kWh. The total losses due to on-site consumption and the transmission and distribution system account for approximately 15% of gross production. The plan will change when the ambitious plan of electricity generation expanded and almost triple 2007 capacity by 2022, the fuel mix will become more unbalanced in the power sector. According to this plan, most new capacity would be natural gas combined cycle and steam turbine plants, the latter also being capable of using heavy fuel oil, [7]. 12

28 Figure 1-3: fuel input and electricity generation in power plants in Egypt, in Mtoe (EEHC). The Egyptian electrification rate in 2008 was approximately 99.4 %, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA); this rate is among the highest in Africa with a 100 % urban access to electricity and 99.1 in rural areas. The total installed capacity of electricity reached to be about 24.7 GW with total generated electricity about GWh at the year 2009/ 2010, 21.4 GW of which was conventional thermal generation capacity, 2800 MW hydro power with generated electricity GWh and 550 MW of wind energy with total generated electricity 1540 GWh. Current peak demand is estimated to be 22.7 (GW). The rising demand and ageing infrastructure have led to intermittent blackouts. The summer of 2010 highlighted these problems, as the country experienced rolling nationwide blackouts. The Egyptian government planning to invest over $100 in the power sector over the next decades to cover the increase of electricity consumption, and at the same time seeking financing from external sources. Egypt encourage the privet sector to establish more power plants and the other international organizations, and renewable energy 13

29 funds such as the World Bank s Clean Technology Fund have all provided investment in the sector. Under existing plans, Egypt hopes to produce 20 % of its electricity from renewable energy by 2020 while also developing a nuclear power industry, (EIA Feb. 2011) Conventional Thermal The thermal power plant is the main player in the electricity generated in Egypt, in 2010, conventional thermal energy sources accounted for GWh of electricity generation, about 89% of the total. Almost natural gas is the main fuel used to produce this electricity. Existing natural gas subsidies combined with plans to expand gas-fired generation capacity indicate that the fuel will continue to play an important role in Egypt s electricity mix Hydropower Hydro power is considered one of the cheapest and cleanest sources of power generation. In Egypt, the power generation from hydro resources started in 1960, with the construction of Aswan Dam to control the Nile water discharge for irrigation. In 1967 the 2.1 GW High Dam hydro power plants was commissioned, followed by the commissioning of Aswan 2 power plant in 1985 and in cooperation with the Ministry of Water Resources and Public Works; Isna hydropower plant was commissioned in 1993 and Naga-Hamadi in year Egypt generated around 14 Bkwh from hydroelectric resources, the share of hydro generation represents about 9.2% from total generation in 2009/2010, almost all of which came from the Aswan High Dam and the Aswan Reservoir Dams, (EEHC annual report). 14

30 Table 1-1: Generated Energy (GWh), source EEHC Figure 1-4: Development of Hydro Generated Energy (GWh), source EEHC It s clear from the above figure (1-5) the decrease of the generated electricity from the hydropower from GWh at the year 2007/2008 to GWh at the year 2009/2010 due to the decrease of the efficiency of the turbines. 15

31 Table 1-2: Hydro Power Indicators, source EEHC Table 1-3: Fuel Saved Due to the Use of Hydro Power, source EEHC the fuel saved by using hydropower energy is estimated to about 2773 Ktoe in the year 2009/2010 which equvelent to about 613 Million EGP. 16

32 1.6.3 Wind The renewable energy in Egypt has gained momentum over the last two decades, thanks to the successful international cooperation and the support of RE from the government. The New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) was established in 1986 as the national focal point to develop and introduce renewable energy technologies to Egypt on a commercial scale together with implementation of related energy conservation programs and investigate technology options through studies and demonstration projects. Another aim of NREA is to introduce mature technologies into the Egyptian market and to support the activities of the domestic industry. For the wind energy technology in Egypt which considered the largest in Africa, since the 1980s, a series of large-scale grid connected wind energy projects were installed, and 120 MW were added in 2010, taking the total installed wind capacity to 550 MW, [8]. Year MW 1999/ 2000/ 2001/ 2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2008/ Table 1-4: Total Installed Capacity of Wind Energy, source Wind Energy Council Operating and planned wind farms in Egypt Zafarana wind farm Zafarana wind farm by the Red Sea coast considered the largest farm in Africa; it has been constructed in stages since 2001, the international cooperation with Germany, Denmark and Spain shared in financing these farms through a grants. Lastly in 2010, 120 MW of wind capacity were added to Zafarana in cooperation with the Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA), taking the total installed capacity to 545 MW. The total generated electricity from the wind farm is about 1,147 GWh. The 17

33 region of the Gulf of El Zayt has an excellent wind regime, there are currently about 1,120 MW at various stages of development in cooperation with Germany, the European Investment Bank (EIB), Japan and Spain. These include: 200 MW in cooperation with KFW, EU and the EIB. After a tender in 2010, the contractor is expected to be selected at the beginning of 2011 and the project is scheduled to start operations by the end of MW in cooperation with Japan and 120 MW in cooperation with Spain are in the pipeline. Further projects in preparation include: 180 MW in cooperation with Spain; 200 MW in cooperation with Abu Dhabi s MASDAR programme; and 200 MW in cooperation with Germany, the EU and the EIB, [8]. 1. Western Bank of the Nile 200 MW installed capacity are planned on the Western Bank of the Nile in cooperation with Japan. 2. Gulf of El Zayt The Gulf of El Zayt region had a good potential of wind with a high speed varies between 7-10 m/s, the Egyptian government, in cooperation with the World Bank in May 2009, published an international tender for a wind farm at the Gulf of El Zayt, and inviting private sector from inside Egypt and international developers to submit their prequalification documents for the first competitive bid to plan build and operate a 250 MW wind farm. The project will benefit from the conditions outlined above. Following the tender, 34 offers were received and a short list of ten qualified developers was announced in November A second stage of the tender calling for final bids will be issued mid-2011 and the project is scheduled to start operations by 2014, (World Wind Energy Council). 18

34 3. Gulf of Suez The Egyptian government plans to install about 2,000 MW of wind power in the Gulf of Suez region, through four stages. A first tender was published in January 2010 for two projects of 250 MW each, again on a build, own and operate basis and a 20 year PPA. A second tender for the same amount of wind power two projects of 250 MW each - is expected for July 2011, (World Wind Energy Council) Solar Egypt has an excellent potential of solar energy which will be suitable for a lot of solar technologies projects even Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) or Photo Voltaic (PV), the construction of the first solar thermal power plant at Kuraymat City with total installed capacity of 140MW and solar share of 20MW, using parabolic trough technology integrated with combined cycle power plant using natural gas as a fuel. Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and the Japan Bank for International Development will finance this power plant. The initial operation of this power plant started at the 1st of July 2011 with estimated total energy generated of 852GWh/year Nuclear Egypt is also working on developing nuclear power as an energy source. It has a 22-MW nuclear research reactor at Inshas in the Nile Delta which began operation in The Ministry of Electricity and Energy in 2010 approved a 1,200 MW power station at al-dab a which is open to international participation and expected to become operational by 2019 as the country s first nuclear power plant. Bidding for the development of this plant was supposed to have started in early Three additional plants are planned by 2025, (Source EIA 2011). 19

35 1.6.6 International Connections Egypt has established an electric transmission grid with other countries in the region. The five-country interconnection of Egypt's system with those of Jordan, Syria, and Turkey was completed by 2002, and Egypt also activated a link to Libya's electric grid in December Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Power Grid The GCC Power Grid project plans to link Egypt to the GCC through Saudi Arabia. The link is expected to be complete between 2013 and 2015 and will allow the sharing of 3GW of electricity between the two countries. This project will indirectly expand each country s electricity capacity by pulling from each other s supplies at different peak hours. Longer-term plans call for broader interconnections that would include North Africa, the Middle East and Europe, (Source EIA). 20

36 As conclusion for the energy situation in Egypt, production and consumption and the reserve of fossil fuels in this table: Proven Oil Reserves (January 1, 2011) 4.4 billion barrels (Oil & Gas Journal) Oil Production (2010) 660 thousand barrels per day Oil Consumption (2010) 710 thousand barrels per day Refining Capacity (2009) 975,000 bbl/d (OGJ and APS Review) Proven Natural Gas Reserves (January 1, 2011) Natural Gas Production (2009) 77.2 trillion cubic feet (Oil & Gas Journal) 2.21 trillion cubic feet Natural Gas Consumption (2009) 1.57 trillion cubic feet Recoverable Coal Reserves (2009) Coal Production (2009) 23.1 million short tons (World Energy Council) 0.03 million short tons Coal Consumption (2009) 1.39 million short tons Electricity Installed Capacity (2008) 23.4 gigawatts Electricity Generation (2008) 124 billion kilowatt hours Electricity Consumption (2008) 109 billion kilowatt hours Total Energy Consumption (2008) 3.2 quadrillion Btus Total Per Capita Energy Consumption (2008) Energy Intensity (2008) 41.0 million Btus 7,681 Btu per $2005-PPP** Table 1-5: Egyptian Energy overview, source EIA 21

37 2 CHAPTER TOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN EGYPT Egypt has witnessed growth in energy demand attributed to demographic trends, increased industrial production as well as rising penetration of consumer products such as electric and electronic home devices. In 2008, Egypt has reached a peak demand of 21,500 MW, 23,000 at 2009 and it is expected to reach 54,200 MW by the year Moving to the installed electric capacity, it reached around 24,726 MW in 2010, compared to 23,502 MW in 2009 with variance 5.2%, and to be 20,593 MW in 2005, [9].The electricity demand increased by 6.7% between 2007 and 2008, and expected to increases with around 7% annum until 2014 as a result of increasing the electricity demand in the industry, agriculture and tourism largely as a result of rising demand from the residential and commercial sectors, [10]. The key technological option for fostering this high increase in demand is the direction of renewable energy and energy efficiency. Rather than the burning of fossil fuels energy reserves considered a spurious industrial competition that has no future, especially with a country like Egypt gas a limited resources, by applying these programs it could build on its engineering and industrial base and become a competitive player and regional leader in the new energy economy of the 21st century. 2.1 Energy Demand Scenarios for Egypt Energy Consumption The indications of energy balance in Egypt for the year 2007 referees that the industrial sector energy consumption was the largest share sector with about (34.2 %), followed by transportation (24.2 %), residential (18.8 %), and agriculture and mining (4.7 %) together accounting for 81.9 % of total consumption. On the other hand the energy consumption by the fuel type, oil products account for (54.1 %), followed by natural gas (20.6 %), and electricity (18.3 %) together comprising 93 % of total demand. The 22

38 remainder is non-energy use. Energy transformation for the internal market occurs mainly via oil-refining activities, natural gas treatment, and power generation (hydro and thermal). Natural gas (56.2 %) and oil (38.2 %) account for the bulk of primary energy supply, representing 94.4 % of the total. The rest is mainly electricity, generated with hydropower (3.9 %, according to IEA methodology) and other primary sources (1.7 %), [11]. Figure 2-1 Share of Egypt s Total Energy Consumption, by Sector, 2007, source Francisco Figueroa de la Vega, 23

39 Figure 2-2: Share of Egypt s Total Energy Consumption, by Fuel Type, 2007, source Francisco Figueroa de la Vega Figure 2-3: Share of Egypt s Total Primary Energy Production, by Source, 2007, Francisco Figueroa de la Vega 24

40 2.1.2 Drivers of Energy Demand There are several major factors contributing to the rapid growth in Egypt s energy demand, these factors including population growth, economic growth, and increased motorization. We have to take these in our consideration to understand the present and future dynamics of Egypt s energy economy Population Egypt is considered to be one of the populous countries in Africa and the Arabic Region; it is estimated to be around 82,079,636 million people with growth rate 1.96% (2011est.)[12], but the growth rate is expected to slow in the future, at a rate of 1.56 % for 2030 as shown in fig (2-3). Figure 2-4: Historic and Future Population Trends in Egypt, , source Francisco Figueroa de la Vega, 25

41 Economic Development Egypt s GDP witnessed a real increase of 5.0 % annually during , which was similar to the average growth rate of 5.2 % annually during , and reached to be 5.3% in The evaluation of the real per capita growth has been positive throughout the last two decades. According to the study of Francisco Figueroa de la Vega, JCEE and GTZ, there are two future economic growth scenarios: The first scenario is called business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for GDP in , which depends on assumption of a constant increase of 3.1 % year, or roughly half the per capita GDP growth of the past. This scenario also assumes that Egypt will pull out of the current economic crisis relatively slowly. The second scenario is called high economic growth (HEG) scenario, which depends on assumes that the economy continues to grow dynamically, at an average annual rate of 4.5 %, on the basis that Egypt will implement important investments in economic and social infrastructure that stimulate the internal market for goods and services and for the domestic labor force. There is no significant change in the economic growth by sector up to 2030; only a modest increase in agriculture and mining, there will be a higher growth in industry and slight reduction in commerce and construction growth. Nevertheless, there will be an increase in economic activity in all sectors in terms of real GDP growth, [11]. 26

42 Figure 2-5: Egypt s GDP Growth, Two Scenarios, , Source: Francisco Figueroa de la Vega Figure 2-6: Egypt s Real Per Capita GDP, , source: Francisco Figueroa de la Vega, 27

43 Figure 2-7: Egypt s Economic Growth by Sector, , Source: Francisco Figueroa de la Vega Figure 2-8: Egypt s Economic Growth by Sector, , Source: Francisco Figueroa de la Vega 28

44 2.2 Electricity Market Design Background The Egyptian electricity was introduced as the first time in the late of 19th century. And since that time, the network of electricity has grown to supply and cover all the locations in Egypt and rural areas to reach about 99.4% according to the estimation of The electricity sector market for the first time was totally in private hands. Then after the revolution of 1952 the sector was nationalized. The competitive form is the main change of the electricity market with applying the new the new electricity law which has been prepared and will be ratified from the people s assembly next elections. The complete sector mostly owned by the government and the responsible entity is the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) which manages the portfolio on behalf of the government, and the sector activities were separated into generation, transmission and distribution activities Present Status of Electricity Market The present market status of electricity in Egypt is considered a monopoly market, mainly consists of a single buyer form. Because of this we can find all generation companies, including the four generating companies with their thermal power plants, the three private BOOT projects, a wind farm sell their product to a transmission company. The transmission company in turn is the responsible entity to sells the electricity to all the customers and the nine distribution companies. Because of this system of monopoly the market does not allow free competition among incumbent generation companies, [13]. However, it s the direction of the government towards the establishment of a real liberal electricity market and builds a new system for a new market. The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company EEHC owns about 90% of the market electricity generation with installed generation capacity, and the three private BOOT projects contribute with 9% of the installed generation capacity, when the last 29

45 1% is made of the present wind farms and small isolated units. The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company EETC, which considered the Single Buyer is the only company licensed for EHV and HV electricity transmission, purchases electrical energy from all generation companies and sells the electrical energy to: the present nine distribution companies (23 million consumers), the present 81 EHV and HV consumers, and The seven private distribution companies (less than1% of the market). Furthermore, EETC is exchanging energy with neighboring countries over the present interconnections, [14]. Figure 2-9: Structure of the EEHC, source H. El Salmawy 30

46 Wind Figure 2-10: Power sector structure, source H. El Salmawy The Proposed Electricity Market Structure The direction of the energy sector is to liberate the electricity market; the proposed electricity market will be harmonized with the present practices in the EU. To that end, to reach to the final situation, we have the transitional market which will be composed of two submarkets working in parallel: A competitive market where eligible consumers enjoy the liberty of choosing their electricity supplier (outside and inside the regulated market); A regulated market for non-eligible consumers. The regulated market should gradually contract to the account of the competitive market up to the point where the whole market is fully competitive. 31

47 Figure 2-11: The proposed Electricity Market Structure The regulated market (single buyer model) In the regulated market, like the current market, non-eligible consumers shall purchase their electricity needs against a regulated tariff approved by the regulatory agency. The government which owned companies is responsible for satisfying the needs of noneligible customer class. The prices of this class are sold at the regulated price on an economic basis. The private generation entities will participate for satisfying a part of the market needs in the regulated market. Under the single-buyer market model, the Transmission System Operator perform the same function it does today, purchasing all generation, and in turn, selling this power to wholesale customers including the distribution companies and the EHV and HV customers directly connected to the transmission system, [14]. 32

48 The competitive market (bilateral model) The second market model is the competitive market, in this there will be a free market and every consumers shall have the right to sign a direct bilateral contracts with present/future generation companies to satisfy their needs of electricity according to the free competition, the transmission system operator (TSO) shall be responsible for fulfilling those contracts for a unified transmission access charge proposed by the TSO and approved by the EEUCPRA, the TSO shall purchase the required balancing energy to the account of consumers or generator in the case of any deviation from the quantities specified in the concluded contracts. This enables the settlement of imbalances between contracted power flows against actual flows (balancing mechanism) and helps the Transmission System Operator carry out its responsibilities related to system security, [13] Tariffs The tariff will different from the old to new system or market design, currently the Cabinet of Ministers approves tariffs. In the future, the intention is for the EEUCPRA to decide on tariffs. Use of Network tariffs do not exist presently. The history of retail tariffs have been below costs. There have been increases in tariff levels (up to 7 5 p.a.) Since 2004, to recover operating costs and fuel price rises. In 2006/2007 the government tried to increase the tariff and managed its revenues to at least cover costs (companies almost broke even) but still these revenues not enough to provide funds for new investments. The pricing system has substantial subsidies, natural gas is subsidized as a fuel in the electricity generation and they do not pay taxes on natural gas, this subsidizing system to encourage its use and achieve environmental benefits. The categories of using natural gas as of 65 of the residential sector is subsidized, 25 breakeven, remaining 10 pays above costs. The structure of tariffs needs to be changed in order to provide the correct economic signals; tariffs are single rate energy tariffs with some maximum demand charging for certain tariff categories. 33

49 The proposed change is to increase the charge tariff during the contribution to system peak separately through a demand charge, this may avoid some of the customers of consumers to use electricity during the peak and at the same time the investors can generate electricity at this time to cover the shortage (approx. 1500MW is estimated to be needed each year to cover the increase in peak demand). This means that the impact on the high demand customers may not be significant (their average price paid is lower than the highest tariff that applies to them), [14]. 34

50 2.3 Independent Power Producers, IPPs. Independent Power Producers or IPPs is the private investment in electricity generation in grew dramatically in developing countries during the 1990s; now a day IPPs have developed into a large market through a lot of projects and participate in the electricity market. The privet sector participation in the electricity market in Egypt started in 1996, with a law that laid the foundations for a competitive bidding process for three IPPs that were awarded in 1998 and The three projects sell electricity to the Egyptian electricity holding company under long term contract, EEHC that are backed by a Central Bank guarantee. The natural gas is used as a fuel in all projects which is provided by the Egyptian gas monopoly at a substantial discount from market rates. The Egyptian IPPs are occasionally cited as the most competitive in the world for example, InterGen s (now Globeleq) SidiKrir project bid a price of US$ per kwh. Turbulence in Egypt s IPP arrangements arrived with a 2002 economic downturn and subsequent devaluation of the Egyptian pound from 3.2 to 6 pounds against the US dollar. According to the contract between the IPPs and the Egyptian government, all new power generation projects must secure their own customers, i.e. the state utility will no longer be the guaranteed buyer of electricity and all foreign currency debt must be sourced from abroad. The project sample in Egypt contains all three operating IPPs. These three projects are structured substantially similarly. The only variation exists along in a few factors. First, SidiKrir was sponsored by a major US power company (Intergen), while Suez and Port Said were sponsored by the French utility Electricité de France. Second, SidiKrir obtained debt finance entirely from commercial banks, while the EdF found few commercial options available and ultimately turned to multilateral sources (the IFC) for substantial debt financing, [15]. 35

51 2.3.1 IPP frameworks and projects developed The starting of the IPPs in Egypt was with three generation facilities, built by InterGen with Edison and EdF, respectively, the total installed capacity is about 2048 MW. Despite large currency devaluation, there have been no renegotiations of contract terms, but there has been high equity turnover. As noted by numerous stakeholders, it is required another framework for the future instead of the current one, the proposed one will evolve to accommodate future development for additional IPPs in Egypt. The structure of the current framework which contains the (3 IPPs), BOOT structure 20 year PPA -EEA/EEHC sole off-taker (65-70%) take-if-tendered -Backed by Central Bank Guarantee When the 2ndframework underdevelopment for the future investment, foreign currency must be obtained from abroad - local designers, contractors, and manufacturers must contribute substantially to projects, the local currency must be paid for local costs, bids with an increased equity-financing stake and a larger local investment component favored, [16] IPPs Projects in Egypt Egypt currently has three IPPs, with a combined capacity of approximately 2,050 MW Sidi Krir. Sidi Krir power plant considered the first IPP project in Egypt with total installed capacity MW, and the fuel used is natural gas. In 1996, a competitive bidding process was generated substantial interest; more than fifty firms were applying for prequalification. The project was awarded in February 1998 to a consortium consisting of Intergen and Edison Mission Energy from the United States. The winning bid was US$0.0254/kWh, which was considered the lowest electricity prices for an IPP in the developing world. The project fired on natural gas that was domestically produced and 36

52 supplied at a healthy discount by the Egyptian state gas monopoly. Domestic Egyptian banks provided most of the financing on a project basis; the Project debt is wholly private, albeit denominated in dollars. International commercial banks provided the rest of the debt, with no involvement from multilateral or bilateral lenders. The plant is presently owned by Globeleq, which was spun off the UK s Commonwealth Development Corporation (CDC) in Intergen and Edison Mission sold their interests in SidiKrir in 2005, apparently as part of global restructuring of their power business, and not as a reflection of troubles in the project itself, [15] Suez & Port Said. Egypt s second and third IPPs are Suez & Port Said, these projects are each 683MW with natural gas-fired power plants awarded to Electricite de France. The projects were awarded and developed along substantially similar lines as SidiKrir. EdF sourced its lending from the IFC and a syndicate of international banks and institutional investors; this was the significant difference between the two projects. This difference reportedly reflects the fact that by the time the projects sought financing, Egyptian officials lacked the appetite to mobilize additional domestic lending for power plants. With European commercial banks reluctant to invest in what they deemed insufficiently environmental projects (i.e. plants were for gas-fired steam generators and not combined cycle), EdF turned to a multilateral, namely IFC to help secure additional debt. EdF, citing its plans to concentrate its assets in Europe, sold its equity in the plants in 2006; both Port Said and Suez are presently owned by KusasNusajaya, a subsidiary of the Malaysian firm Tanjong Public Limited Company, [15]. 37

53 Project Sidi Krir Port Said Size Cost $/ (MW) (US$) KWh Fuel Contract Contract project type years operation BOOT BOOT BOOT Gas fired steam generator Gas fired steam generator Gas fired Suez steam generator Total Table 2-1: Egypt s IPPs, source Anton Eberhard and Katharine Gratwick Future IPPs Projects in Egypt The Egyptian electricity sector plans to develop an Independent Power Provider in Dairut, Egypt through the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company, Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company which considered the responsible entity. The purpose of the project is to meet the increasing electricity needs in the country. The total installed capacity of Dairut's combined cycle power plant is about 1,500 MW combined cycle power plant consisting of two 750 MW blocks, each comprising two GTs and one ST, with a capacity of 250 MW each. The output electricity guarantee form The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) which will buy it under a PPA over a period of 20 years. The natural gas will be provided from The Egyptian Natural Gas Holding (Egas). The secondary feedstock will consist of light oil. The project is expected to be completed in 2014, [17]. 38

54 2.3.4 IPPs Projects Evaluation Investment Outcomes: The final evaluation for the IPPs projects in Egypt rated as Positive; there is no major disruptions in the construction of these projects, the operations during this period or payment have been reported. The contracts of power sales have weathered a macroeconomic shock intact, and continue to generate revenue. The only negative outcome identified was that sponsors for each project had invested at least partly on the assumption that Egypt would continue to open investment opportunities. Egypt did have plans to solicit additional projects (up to a total of fifteen IPPs), but reversed course after the cost of the projects spiraled with the devaluation, [15] Development Outcomes The evaluation of the rate of development of IPPs projects is Positive, The cost of the payments to the IPPs have almost doubled with the devaluation of the Egyptian pound, and Egyptian officials now express some dissatisfaction with the projects as being too expensive. Nonetheless, because (i) the original bids were very competitive, (ii) the IPP sector remains small, and payments manageable even if unexpectedly high, and (iii) electricity is being generated, the experience seems a positive one for Egypt. Additionally, although the government has turned to state and multilateral sources of capital for new development, the early IPP investments have been conducted in a manner that provided valuable experience to the country, and have not unduly prejudiced the prospects for future investment, [15]. 39

55 3 CHAPTER THREE: NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGY in Egypt 3.1 Introduction Renewable Energy is one of the most potential measures to meet the challenges of increasing energy demand and the best solution for securing energy use to the next generations and the concern of environmental impact and climate change, every country all over the world build its own strategy according to the available natural resources to face the energy crisis which may face the world in the few coming years. Renewable energy offers a promising alternative to traditional energy sources in developing countries, which may face several constraints in meeting their energy requirements in future. Most of developing countries have tried to promote renewable energy but till now their efforts towards renewable energy contribution to the total energy use has not achieved the targeted as the developed countries. The investment direction still towards conventional energy technologies and it s applications, even where commercially available energy efficient and renewable technologies are technically feasible and economically attractive, specially wind energy which take an effective steps to become more economically and commercially. The fact that renewable energy accounts for only a modest proportion in meeting the world s commercial energy demand means that there is a missing link in their potential and their implementation. In the early of eighties the government of Egypt recognized the importance of renewable energy sources and formulated a national strategy for the development of energy conservation measures and renewable energy applications in 1982 as an integral element of national energy planning. The New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) was established in 1986 to be the focal point for renewable energy activities in Egypt, [18]. In February 2008, the Supreme Council of Energy in Egypt announced the strategy for the electric power based on diversifying the energy sources of production and rationalizing the use of energy and expanding use of renewable energy sources as a component of energy 40

56 provision. The strategy aims to contribution of renewable energies by 20% of the total electricity generation by the year The share from the grid-connected wind power is 12% of the total electricity generation of GWh. Also, other renewable energy technologies of hydropower will share by 4% with generated electricity GWh; solar energy will share by 4% with total generated electricity GWh. In the past, renewable energy development in Egypt has been carried out through encouraging programs for developing the renewable energy resource, setting up specialized bodies to implement national renewable energy plans, and promoting business opportunities for renewable energy projects. Now efforts are being exerted in order to reach total capacities of 7200 MW and this will be achieved through two main paths: State-owned projects implemented by the NREA with total capacities of 2375 MW (represents 33% of total installed capacities). These projects will be financed through governmental agreements. Private sector projects with total capacities of 4825 MW (represents 76% of total installed capacities). Policy of increasing the participation of private sector will include two phases: Phase I: Adopting Competitive Bids approach as the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company will issue tenders internationally requesting private sector to supply power to build, own, operate wind farms and selling electricity for the company with price agreed upon between the company and the investor. Phase II: Application of Feed-in-tariff system, taking into consideration the prices and experience achieved in phase I, (NREA 2010). 3.2Incentives for the Private Sector In 26/7/2009, the Supreme Council of Energy has approved the following policies in order to stimulate and support generating electricity from wind energy: Approving private sector participation through competitive tender and bilateral agreements. 41

57 Reducing project risks through signing long term Power Purchase Agreement, PPA, for years. The Government of Egypt will guarantee all financial obligations under the PPA. The selling price for energy generated from renewable energy projects will be in foreign currency in addition to a portion, covers operation and maintenance costs, in local currency. Investors will benefit from selling certificates of emission reduction resulted from the project implemented. Evaluation criteria for tenders of renewable energy projects will give privilege for local components. Forming mutual committee of representatives from Ministers of Petroleum, Electricity, Finance and Investment in order to prepare and encourage proposal against allocating lands to implement wind projects. In 26/5/2010 the cabinet has approved the committee proposal of encouraging private sector participation through : Exempting renewable energy equipment from custom duties. Obtaining approvals and all the required permits to obtain lands and clearing it from land mines. Preparing the studies required for implementing projects such as environmental, bird migration and soil research studies, (NREA annual report 2010). 42

58 3.3Energy Planning Model This model was designed to calculate the current share of Renewable Energy from the total electricity generated at the base case year 2009/2010 and the expected electricity generated up to 2020, and also find if the planned projects of Renewable energy will cover the targeted of Ministry of Electricity and Energy or will be there a deficit to achieve this targeted and how we can cover this shortage to fulfill the Egyptian strategy from Renewable Energy up to The structure of this model consists of the input data which will be, the total generated electricity at the base case year 2009/2010 (139,000GWh) and also the targeted of Renewable energy share which will be 20% (12% wind, 4% Solar, 4% hydro), the expected growth rate of electricity according to the previous growth rates and that expected from the planning side of energy planning according to the increase in demand and to achieve the targeted of RE up to 2020 (6.4% growth rate), and the data processing which include the calculations of each technology and it s generated electricity, then find the shortage between the targeted and estimated share and how to cover this shortage, then finally the results or the output which include how much of Megawatts of installed of each technology to cover the shortage and the possible place to install these projects. 43

59 Inputs Data Processing Electricity generated 2009/2010 Outputs Shortage How much to cover Growth rate 6.4% Possible projects Targeted share of RE Figure 3-1: Energy Planning Model Components The Methodology of Data Processing The energy planning model consists of 6 sheets; each one contains different data and different technology calculations as follow: Input Data: Sheet number (6) includes the input data which considered the targeted to be achieved, according to the Egyptian strategy by 2020 includes 20% sharing of RE (12% wind, 4% solar, and 4% hydro) Generated electricity forecasting: sheet number (1) includes the calculation to estimate the forecasting of electricity generated by 2020, reference to the generated in the year 2009/2010 and with the growth rate 6.4%, which expected by the energy planning makers Wind energy scenario: Sheet number (3) includes the calculations of wind energy, how much generated from the planned projects and the deficit from the targeted, finally how much GWh needed to cover this shortage. To calculate the approximate annual energy production by multiplying the capacity factor (RCF) with the rated power and time period, thus 44

60 Total generated electricity KWh/year = (RCF) * PR KW *8760, (Dr. Sathyajith Mathew, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006) Solar Energy Scenario: Sheet number (4) the calculations of solar energy including CSP and PV and the generated electricity, the shortage and how much needed to cover this shortage PV system: the generating electricity from the PV power plant system calculated as the equation of how much your Solar PV installation would produce every year. Predicted Generation (measured in kwh/year) = kwp x Shading factor x Irradiance x 0.8, ( The KWp is the maximum power that your Solar PV system is able to work at, based on it functioning under perfect conditions in the lab Shading describes the proportion of panel which is not receiving full exposure to sunlight. 1.0 describes a system where no part is shaded, 0.8 when there is slight shading and 0.6 where there is moderate shading. CSP system: the generated electricity based on the calculation of the last feasibility study in Kom Ombo Hydropower energy: Sheet number (5) hydropower which considered approximately not constant but decreased by the time due to the efficiency, there is no effective measures will be taken in this share, no projects planned Cumulated RE: Finally sheet number (2) which includes the calculations of all RE and the sum of it and make comparison between the estimated and the targeted RE 45

61 The methodology of processing the data depends on the base case information and the growth rate of energy sector which will lead to the expected target, according to the calculations of each renewable technology and the generated electricity from the planned projects to fulfill the announced strategy, and then we compare the generated electricity from these planned projects with the targeted electricity, if there is any deficit try to cover it with an expected projects even Wind, Solar or other technology according to the land and the investment cost, also the sale tariff /kwh to the end user or the consumers. Taking in our consideration a suitable uncertainty when comparing the difference between the targeted and the estimated share of RE 46

62 3.4 The Current Situation at the Year 2009/2010 In the year 2009/2010, the total installed capacity in Egypt was MW with electricity generation 139,000 GWh, of which 89 % was delivered by thermal plants and about 10% from Hydro power with total installed 2800 MW and electricity generated is about GWh and 1% from Wind energy with total installed 550 MW and electricity generated 1542 GWh. 1.11% 9.25% Thermal Hydro Wind 89.64% Figure 3-2: current situation of electricity 2009/ The Expected Situation of Electricity By 2020 According to the data analysis and the growth rate of 6.4% the estimated expected generated electricity according to the calculation of the model, will be GWh and the estimated sharing of renewable energy will be 20% with total electricity generated about GWh divided as follow, 12% wind with total generated electricity GWh, 4% Solar energy with total generated electricity GWh, and 4% Hydro power with total generated electricity about GWh. 47

63 When comparing the targeted and the estimated electricity and the share of RE we find that the targeted wind energy was GWh when the estimated will be GWh with difference about 17 GWh which will be allowed according to the uncertainty limit with 50 GWh to mention the real targeted. The Forecasting Of total Electricity Generated GWh, with GR 6.4% Total Electricity Generated Figure 3-3: the forecasting of total electricity generated up to 2020 The situation will change completely when we change the expected growth rate according to the energy demand, so the calculation depends on our expected growth rate and this percentage 6.4% related to the Egyptian strategy and so they put the targeted of RE for each technology according to it, so we can expect another growth rate and investigate the results of each target of RE, to find how to cover this deficit in this case. 48

64 Estemated shared of RE GWh up to Wind Solar Hydro Targeted shared of RE up to 2020 Figure 3-4: Estimate Targeted share of renewable energy up to 2020 The data will be in this section discussed in details, each technology and the comparison between the targeted and the really estimated according to the prepared projects and also how we can cover this shortage to its targeted share 49

65 3.6 Wind Energy Situation Since the 1980s, a series of large-scale grid connected wind energy projects were installed in Egypt, the total installed wind capacity till now is 550 MW. The targeted wind energy up to 2020 is to generate electricity about GWh, but when we calculate the planned projects which mentioned by the government to achieve this target, find there is a shortage, because the total installed capacity will be 7200 MW with a total generated electricity about GWh, these projects will be in the regions of Hurgada, Zaafarana, Suez Gulf and West of Nile with weighted capacity factor 35% for all locations which related to the sum of the total capacity of each location multiplied by the capacity factor of this location and divided by the total installed, this means the weighted capacity will change according to the added installed capacity and the location of these projects. The total generated electricity from the mentioned wind projects represents about 8.63% from the total generated electricity which means the deficit will be about 3.37% with 8718 GWh, Location Installed Capacity factor Hurgada Zaafarana Suez Gulf Western Nile Total Table 3-1: The weighted capacity factor 50

66 From the above information we find that we need about8718 GWh to cove the deficit of generate electricity from the wind according to the target of This means that we have to find other locations to build new projects with a different weighted capacity factor. Still, critics often charge that renewable-energy sources require large amounts of land compared to conventional energy-generation options, also the cost investment for the renewable projects and the final tariff, We will try to find the available land for the different proposed renewable projects in Egypt which will be suitable to cover this deficit in the our targeted The Land Required For Wind Farms The required land area for wind power farm depends on the turbines spacing and their configuration. The land required for a GWh of electricity from wind turbines typically is larger than that needed for the solar-electric cycle. Wind turbines use only 1 10% of the wind farm areas. The remaining free lands typically are utilized for grazing, agriculture, and recreation. According to the estimation of indirect land transformation from two LCA studies for an on-shore wind farm in Denmark. We adopted the materials and energy inputs given by Schleisner and Vestas along with the Ecoinvent database. The former source, based on 0.5 MW wind turbine, results in 5.5 m2 /GWh while the latter, based on 1.65 MW wind turbine, gave 1.84 m2 /GWh assuming a 30years lifetime, [19] The Available Land for Wind Projects In light of the technical studies, especially wind Atlas, NREA selects sites suitable for carrying out wind project. Then NREA obtains required approvals from various authorities to allocate lands to carry wind project, helping the investor to avoid carrying all the required procedures, not used for other purposes. Land proposed for carrying wind projects by the private sector is desert areas. In May 10 th 2006 Red Sea Governor 51

67 decree No. 136 for the year 2006 was issued allocating about 656 km2 to NREA to establish wind farm projects. In May 30th 2009 a presidential decree No. 138 for the year 2009 was issued to allocate about 1229 km2 at west of Suez Gulf. In September 17th 2009, a presidential decree No. 319 for the year 2009 was issued allocating of some lands to implement wind projects. This land is located in Upper Egypt, West and East of the Nile to governorates of Beni Sueif, Minya, Assuit with total amount of 6418 km2. The lands will be used according to a usufruct contracts and to some rules approved by the cabinet, (NREA annual report 2010) Wind Atlas for Egypt The Wind Atlas for Egypt is one of the first and certainly the most comprehensive numerical wind atlases ever established. The wind resource over an area of more than one million square kilometers much of which consists of mountains and remote desert tracts has been determined by two independent methods: a traditional wind atlas based on observations from more than 30 stations all over Egypt, and a numerical wind atlas based on long-term reanalysis data and a mesoscale model. The wind atlas allows for wind resource assessment and siting anywhere in Egypt, and further provides bankable resource estimates in the most promising regions. The measurement sites were selected to cover six regions: the Northwest Coast, the Northeast Coast, and the Gulf of Aqaba, the Gulf of Suez, the Red Sea and the Western Desert. The sites were chosen to represent the most promising areas for wind energy exploitation, as well as to provide information on all significant types of wind climatology in Egypt. Logistical aspects have limited the site selection somewhat as large parts of the Western Desert and mountainous areas are fairly inaccessible. It will therefore be useful for decision making, identification of new measurements sites, planning of feasibility studies and for actual project preparation. In areas where wind atlas stations are in operation, such as in the Gulf of Suez and along the Northwest 52

68 Coast, the resource estimates may meet bankable accuracy though this has to be confirmed on a project by project basis, [20]. Figure 3-5 : Elevation map of Egypt showing the meteorological stations used for the Wind Atlas for Egypt. The geographic and Cartesian (UTM) coordinates are referenced to the World Geodetic System Source: wind atlas for Egypt

69 Figure 3-6: Mean wind speeds and power densities at a height of 50 m over roughness class 1 (z0 = 0.03 m) for the 30 stations in the Wind Atlas for Egypt. Source wind atlas for Egypt 54

70 Gulf of Suez West of Nile East of Nile Figure 3-7 Wind resource map of Egypt: mean wind speed at 50 m a.g.l. determined by mesoscale modeling (Wind Atlas for Egypt, 2006). 55

71 Figure 3-8: offshore wind resource map of Egypt: mean wind speed at 50 m a.g.l. determined by mesoscale modeling (Wind Atlas for Egypt, 2006). The Wind Atlas for Egypt confirms the existence of a widespread and particularly high wind resource along the Gulf of Suez. The Wind Atlas further indicates that the wind energy resource in large regions of the Western and Eastern Desert in particular west and east of the Nile valley between 27 N and 29 N, but also north and west of the city 56

72 of Kharga are much higher than hitherto assumed. The mean wind speeds predicted here are between 7 and 8 ms-1 and the power densities between 300 and 400 Wm-2, estimated at a height of 50 m a.g.l. There are no meteorological stations for verification in these regions; however, comparisons elsewhere in the Western Desert of predictions derived from the mesoscale modeling to those derived from measurements suggest that the mesoscale model is indeed able to resolve and predict the wind resource in this type of terrain. The Wind Atlas for Egypt represents a significant step forward in the application of the wind atlas methodology in Egypt. Not only does it provide a coherent and consistent overview of the wind energy resource over the entire land (and sea) area of Egypt, the results of the mesoscale modeling are further available in a database (numerical wind atlas) that may be employed directly for detailed wind resource assessments and siting of wind turbines and wind farms. Utilizing this database together with elevation maps derived from the Space Shuttle Topography Mission and land-use maps constructed from satellite imagery, the wind resource and likely power production of a given wind farm can be estimated in a matter of hours anywhere in Egypt, [21] Wind Farm Area Calculator From the calculated data we find that we need generated electricity about 8718 GWh to cover the deficit of the targeted which means if we use the location of west and east of Nile with capacity factor 27%, the weighted capacity factor will be about 33% and so the total installed capacity needed will be about 3700 MW will be installed in this region, we can estimate the total land needed for these projects by using the wind farm area calculator by NREAL with two scenarios 57

73 The first scenario, when using wind turbine with capacity of 2 MW each Input Value (kw) Area per turbine 0.25 (Acres) Size of turbine 2000 (kw) Table 3-2: Estimated land for wind energy, scenario 1, source NREL web site The estimated land area required is: acres. ( m2), this calculation assumes 3"700"000 kw and 1850 turbines each requiring an area of 0.25 acres. The second scenario when using wind turbine with capacity 1 MW each Input Value (kw) Area per turbine 0.25 (Acres) Size of turbine 1000 (kw) Table 3-3: Estimated land for wind energy, scenario 2 The estimated land area required is: 925 acres. ( m2) This calculation assumes 3"700"000 kw and 3700 turbines each requiring an area of 0.25 acres. Note: This value represents the area taken out of production on a farm. The area within the perimeter of the wind farm will be larger due to spacing of the turbines, but is still useable by the farm. Typical turbine spacing in wind farms is placing the towers 5 to 10 turbine diameters apart, depending on local conditions, [22], [23]. 58

74 From the above information we can find that the region East and west Nile, we need total area acres ( m2), to install a total capacity of 3700 MW wind energy with a capacity factor of 27%, so we can cover the shortage Repowering of wind turbines The suggested option also to cover this deficit is to repowering the wind farms in the highest capacity factor regions, like Suez gulf and especially in the old wind farm in Zafarana, we can use a wind turbine with capacity of 1.5 MW or 2 MW instead of 850 KW, which means we will double the generated electricity. The expression Repowering refers to power plant in general and includes all measures which improve the efficiency and capacity by means of retrofit to the latest technology. Considering a coal power plant, repowering could mean to install a new steam generator or a new turbine. Possible modifications on wind turbines are limited, thus repowering affects the whole plant in general and essentially the entire wind farm. In short, aim of the repowering is to use the existing renewable energy resources on site more efficiently, respectively in a technically adapted or improved manner. Progressing technology provides the option for operators to improve the profitability of their site, or to cope with new technical or legal conditions. Frequently planned and often locally supported is to restore the landscape. The reduction of the number of plant is linked with a significant growth of hub heights and a reduction of the rotational speed. Presently, the individual capacity of a wind turbine has advanced enough to fulfill the initially formulated aim of doubling the capacity and reducing the number of plant by 50. The 2 MW turbines class and upward emit considerably less noise and comply with the actual grid code to feed in larger capacities, [24]. 59

75 3.7 Solar Energy Situation The total solar power plant according to the Egyptian plan is the solar power plant in Kuraymat with total installed 20 MW and generated electricity about 33 GWh, and the solar power plant in Kom Ombo, 40 km North of Aswan and 150 km South of Luxor with total installed capacity about 100 MW and generated electricity 256 GWh, so the total generated electricity from concentrated solar power CSP will be 289 GWh. On the other hand the planned projects for photovoltaic technology is about 40 MW will be installed in Kom Ombo with total electricity generated about 77 GWh grid connected electricity. The total electricity generated from the solar power will be 366 GWh which considered only about 0.14% from the targeted solar power by 3.86% with total electricity generated about 9973 GWh deficit from the total GWh. Because of the perfect location of Egypt which considered one of the Sun Belt countries and the Egypt has a high potential of solar energy can cover any deficit in the future but still the main barrier for introducing solar thermal power technology CSP are the large initial investment and the inefficiency of the Egyptian electricity sector. Public utilities are reluctant to charge higher electricity tariffs from their customers, and thus follow mainly a business as usual approach, in many cases even making losses on conventional electricity tariffs. 60

76 Figure 3-9: Solar Atlas of Egypt, source NREA annual report Solar Atlas The Solar Atlas in Egypt was issued in 1991, indicating that Egypt as one of the sun belt countries is endowed with high intensity of direct solar radiation ranging between 1970 to 3200 kwh / m2 / year from North to South. The sunshine duration ranges from 9-11 hours with few cloudy days all over the year and total sunshine hours varies between hours/year, [NREA 2010]. The solar atlas of Egypt refers to a huge suitable land for solar power plants including CSP or PV, Many studies have been established to investigate, evaluate and asses the suitability of sites for implementation and development of a CSP or PV power plants. 61

77 3.7.2 EM Power Program, Country visit Report The EM Power study by the United Nations Environment program (UNEP), German Ministry of Economic cooperation and Development (BMZ), which made a visit study to about 13 places to investigate, evaluate and asses the suitability of sites for implementation and development of a CSP or PV power plants and asses usable area to determine the potential size of the power plants. The final results of this study visit included the estimation of the suitable land, the direct normal irradiation and the global horizontal irradiations and finally the recommended projects for this area according to the land qualifications, [25]. 62

78 Site name: Solar resources DNI: 1980 KWh/m2a Abu Simbel 2 GHI: 2100 KWh/m a Used land Recommended projects 500 * 500 m2 10 MW PV * 1500m 50 MW CSP (no TES) 30 MW CSP (with TES) DNI: 2100 KWh/m2a Toshka 2 * 20 Km2 Up to 1600 MW PV GHI: 2150 KWh/m2a Toshka DNI: 2100 KWh/m2a 15 KM GHI: 2150 KWh/m2a Kom Ombo DNI: 2500 KWh/m2a 1000 MW CSP (with TES) 3 * 4 Km2 Up to 300 MW CSP (with TES) 1.5 * 5 Km2 200 MW CSP (with TES) 1 * 2.5 Km2 60 MW CSP (with TES) 1000 * 2000 m2 Up to 100 MW CSP (with TES) 2 GHI: 2280 KWh/m a DNI: 2430 KWh/m2a Esna Edfu 2 GHI: 2240 KWh/m a Marsa Alam DNI: 3370 KWh/m2a GHI: 2570 KWh/m2a 50 MW CSP with 10 h TES or 80 MW PV Quseir Resory 2 DNI: 3350 KWh/m a 2 2*(1000*2000 m ) 2 GHI: 2550 KWh/m a Up to 100 MW CSP (no TES) 50 MW CSP (10 h TES) 80 MW PV West of Safaga DNI: 3300 KWh/m2a 500 * 300 m2 Too small for CSP 500 * 500 m2 10 MW PV 1000 * 500 m2 Up to 15 MW CSP and up to * 700 m2 MW PV GHI: 2520 KWh/m2a South of Safaga DNI: 3250 KWh/m2a 2 GHI: 2490 KWh/m a Wind DNI: 3110 KWh/m2a NREA park at Hurgada 2 GHI: 2410 KWh/m a 500 * 200 m2 Kuraymat DNI: 2000 KWh/m2a 800 * 700 m2 10 MW CSP or 22 MW PV Extension GHI: 2010 KWh/m2a 200 * 1000 m2 8 MW PV Farafra Oasis site GHI: 2000 KWh/m2a 900 * 900 m2 Up to 35 MW PV Siwa Oasis site DNI: 2464 KWh/m2a Not feasible 2 GHI: 2249 KWh/m a Table 3-4: Proposed lands suitable for solar projects, source Em Power, country visit 63

79 The conclusion of the above table refers to the total recommended projects are estimated as 1863 MW installed capacity of PV and about 1935 MW installed capacity of CSP. The Kom Ombo site is a barren land located at N24.62 and E32.89 at the b order of the village Faris, Kom Ombo, and about 40 km North of Aswan and 150 km South of Luxor. Access to the site is through a paved road connecting Kom Ombo to the desert highway Aswan-Luxor. Grid connection to the site will be through a substation (to be constructed) connecting to a medium voltage line (66 kv) 1 km away from the site. The total available land for CSP plant is approximately 750 hectares (750 * 104 m2). The site is flat though slightly sloping to the East. The soil is compacted sand-gravel sediments. Minor leveling will be required to prepare for flat collector fields. Several meteorological data sources have been analyzed and compared. For the study the data set generated with the Metronome database has been used. It shows an annual sum for direct normal irradiation (DNI) of 2516 kwh/m2 for the site. The monthly DNI data of the site shows some seasonal variations, [26]. Installed Generated Capacity Electricity MW GWh % heating % Solar + 6 Hours storage % Solar + 8 Hours storage % % CSP Description Solar only Capacity factor expected installed capacities Generated Electricity Solar + 10% Auxilary Solar + 12 Hours storage Table 3-5: expected electricity generated from Kom Ombo, source PFC of Kom Ombo 64

80 3.7.3 CSP+D potential in Egypt SolarPACES The main objective of this project is the assessment of concentrator power plant and Desalination Potential in the MENA Area. Provide development of an implementation strategy for the adoption of solar disinfection of drinking water as an appropriate, effective and acceptable intervention against waterborne disease for vulnerable communities in developing countries without reliable access to safe water, or in the immediate aftermath of natural or man-made disasters. One of the most important tasks of this project is the estimation of the solar resource potential in the Egypt coastal strip using satellite images, the study done by the Spanish company IrSOLaV in the framework of the activity Assessment of CSP+D potential in the MENA area of SolarPACES. It includes Yearly sums of global horizontal (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are calculated in all the Egypt coastal strip distributed with a mean distance of 5km from the sea and separated between each other with a spatial resolution of 5km. 65

81 Figure 3-10: Egypt coastal strip in the Mediterranean Sea in red color, source IrSOLaV study Figure 3-11: Elevation profile of the Egypt coastal strip in the Mediterranean, source IrSOLaV study 66

82 Figure 3-12: Egypt coastal strip in the Red sea in red color, The red line inland corresponds to the Egypt border drawn by Google Earth, source IrSOLaV study Figure 3-13: Elevation profile of the Egypt coastal strip in the Red sea, source IrSOLaV study 67

83 The results of this study is presented in an excel sheet containing yearly sums of global horizontal and direct normal irradiance (kwh/ m2/ year) and yearly averages of temperature (OC). In general terms, the dynamic of yearly solar radiation can be divided in two main zones. The Mediterranean Sea zone shows the yearly DNI results for each site. The range oscillation is at 1854 to 2247 kwh/ m2/ year, [27]. Figure 3-14: DNI results of the Egypt coastal strip in the Mediterranean Sea, source IrSOLaV study The Red sea zone shows the yearly DNI results for each site. Overall, the DNI values show higher mean than the results for the Mediterranean zone. The minimum value is 2082 and the maximum 2611 kwh/ m2/ year. In this zone, there is higher variability than in the Mediterranean cost due to the abruptness of the terrain, [27] 68

84 Figure 3-15: Elevation profile of the Egypt coastal strip in the Red sea, source IrSOLaV study The study of ASSESSMENT OF CSP+D POTENTIAL IN THE MENA AREA has been carried out considering the location of Port Safaga (Red Sea, Egypt), with an estimated yearly DNI of 2496 kwh/m2. Considered distance from the sea is between 2 and 5 km. This last figure is the maximum distance to the sea to consider suitable the facility. 50 MWe and m3/day have been considered as net power and water production respectively, and 58ºC (0.18 bar abs) as the exhaust steam outlet turbine conditions. When all Egyptian coasts are analysed, in the Mediterranean strip and considering radiation and orographic constrains, the 25% of the coast (900 km) can be considered suitable to combined solar power and desalination facilities. In the case of the Red Sea (1550 km), the estimated percentage is about 40 %. If 50 MW solar power plants m3/day desalination facilities are considered at 20 km distance interval 69

85 (reasonable distance to provide power and water to nearby locations), the estimated number of suitable CSP+D units in the Mediterranean Egyptian and Red Sea would be 11 and 31, respectively. This would means about 2.1 GW of installed power and 1.7 Hm3 of installed desalination capacity. [28] So that we have the perfect land to install and generate the needed electricity from the solar and more than the targeted, but still the main barrier is the investment cost of these projects 70

86 3.8 The complete evaluation for the targeted plan After making these data analysis for each technology and its share from the total electricity generated by the year 2020, we have to evaluate the situation and From the above technologies we find that the planned projects will not satisfy the targeted plan there is a gap between the targeted and the estimated electricity according to the real projects, the total targeted electricity from the renewable is about GWh, when the estimated electricity is about GWh, which considered 13.75% from the total expected generated, it means we need to generate GWh from the renewable to achieve the targeted plan by This will be possible to cover this deficit by more projects in the proposed land even for wind farms or solar power plants. Targeted Strategy by 2020 GWh Wind Solar Hydro Table 3-6: Targeted Strategy by 2020 Real Projects planned GWh Wind Solar Hydro Table 3-7: Real projects 71

87 Shortage GWh Wind Solar Hydro Table 3-8: shortage from the targeted and planned projects Wind Solar Planned up to 2020 Hydro estimated projects Figure 3-16: Comparison between the planned targeted and the estimated planned projects GWh 72

88 4 CHAPTER FOUR: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION In this section an evaluation for economic analysis for the energy resources and the investment costs of the future projects to cover the demand, as the result the expected tariff of electricity which will be generated from the different resources. The evaluation depends on the data collection from global market and the worldwide investment cost of these technologies projects, also according to the estimated prices from the different feasibility studies which prepared in many projects in Egypt even in wind or solar energy projects 4.1 Renewable Energy Market and Industry Highlights The global market of the renewable energy technologies witnessed a fast growth during the last few years, or a fast review of the global market of the most used renewable technology (wind, CSP, and PV), the total installed all over the world and the total investment cost of each of them which will be related to the Egyptian market and the project s cost even in wind and solar energy power plant. The total investment in renewable energy reached $211 billion in 2010, up from $160 billion in 2009, continuing the steady annual increase seen since tracking first began in Including the unreported $15 billion (estimated) invested in solar hot water collectors; total investment exceeded $226 billion. An additional $40 45 billion was invested in large hydropower. Asset finance of new utility-scale projects (wind farms, solar parks, and biofuel and solar thermal plants) accounted for a record $128 billion in 2010, almost 60% of the total and was the largest investment asset class. Wind power dominated the utility-scale asset finance sector (70%), with $90 billion invested in projects, a 33% rise over

89 Large-scale solar power plants represented the second largest sector under utility-scale asset financing, at $19 billion in This was about 5% higher than the financing secured in 2009, although still below the 2008 record of $23 billion due to the sharp decline in PV panel prices. Investment in small-scale distributed generation projects (mainly solar PV) amounted to $60 billion and accounted for more than 25% of total investment in renewable energy. For the first time, investment in renewable energy companies and utility scale generation and biofuel projects in developing countries surpassed that in developed economies. China attracted more than a third of global investment during 2010, making it the leader for the second year in a row. The total installed capacity of wind energy is about 198 GW by the end of 2010, The PV industry had an extraordinary year, with global production and markets more than doubling in An estimated 17 GW of capacity was added worldwide (compared with just under 7.3 GW in 2009), bringing the global total to about 40 GW, the CSP market has come back to life with nearly 740 MW added between 2007 and the end of More than half of this capacity was installed during Parabolic trough plants continued to dominate the market. Dramatic reductions in PV costs are challenging the growing market for CSP, at least in the United States, where several planned projects were redesigned to use utility-scale PV technologies. At the same time, project development is moving beyond the U.S. southwest and Spain to other regions and countries, particularly the MENA region, [29]. 4.2 Economic and Financial Evaluation for Wind Projects The economic situation of wind energy considered the most promised in the commercial way and under specific conditions, onshore wind energy is competitive with newly built conventional power plants today, for example where the carbon cost is effectively internalized, the resource is good, and conventional generation costs are high, as in California. In Europe, with a stable, meaningful carbon price under the European Emission Trading System, competition with newly built coal plants would be 74

90 possible at many sites. However, the competitiveness is not yet the rule, and reduced life cycle cost of energy (LCOE) from wind is the main primary objective for the wind industry. Therefore, the achievement of competitiveness with conventional electricity production as a key goal, which is necessary so that market forces can be more heavily relied upon to incentivize investment in new wind power deployment, [30].The main parameters affecting the governing wind power economics include the following: Investment costs, including auxiliary costs for foundation, grid-connection, and so on. Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs. Electricity production/average wind speed. Turbine lifetime. Discount rate. Hence, from these the most important parameters are the wind turbines (WT) electricity production and their investment costs. As electricity production is highly dependent on wind regime conditions, choosing the right site is critical to achieving economic viability, [31] Investment costs The investment cost of wind energy generation according to the reports in 2008 for the installed projects in the European land ranged from USD 1.45 to USD 2.6 million/mw (EUR 1 to EUR 1.9 million). This cost will different in other locations like n North America, investment costs ranged from USD 1.4 to USD 1.9 million/mw (EUR 0.98 to EUR 1.3 million); and in Japan from USD 2.6 to USD 3.2 million (EUR 1.8 to EUR 2.2 million) (IEA Wind, 2009). Costs in India and China stand at just under and just over USD 1 million/mw (EUR 1.45), respectively (GWEC, 2009). Following a period of steadily declining investment costs, from the late 1980s, investment costs rose considerably in 2004, doubling in the United States for example. This increase was due mostly to supply constraints on turbines and components 75

91 (including gear-boxes, blades and bearings) that made it difficult to meet the increasing demand for these parts; as well as, to a lesser extent, higher commodity prices, particularly for steel and copper. While the current recession has loosened the turbine market, supply bottlenecks are likely to recur when markets fully recover, particularly if new investment in manufacturing has stagnated in the meantime, and may lead to reinflated investment costs, [29] Lifecycle Cost of Energy The lifecycle cost of energy (LCOE) of wind energy can vary significantly according to the investment cost, the quality of the wind resource, operation and maintenance (O&M) requirements, turbine longevity and the date of commissioning, and the cost of investment capital. Regional differences such as geography, population density and regulatory processes contribute to variations in development and installation costs and ultimately the LCOE of wind energy. Wind LCOE is considered to range from a low of USD 70 (EUR 50)/MWh, under the best circumstances, to a high of USD 130 (EUR 90). According to the last estimation of US Department of Energy Wind Technologies Market Report the nation-wide capacity-weighted average price paid for wind power in 2008 (generated by projects commissioned during the period 2006 to 2008) was around USD 47/MWh. This price includes the benefit of the federal production tax credit, which has a value of at least USD 20/MWh according to the report, and other state level incentives (US DOE, 2009), [29] Operations and Maintenance Operation and maintenance costs considered the most important component player in the total investment cost of wind energy projects. (O&M) cost of wind turbines including service, spare parts, insurance, administration, site rent, consumables and power from the grid. It is difficult to extrapolate general cost figures due to low 76

92 availability of data. Because of the fast evolving of the technology, O&M requirements differ greatly, according to the sophistication and age of the turbine. A sample of projects examined recently in the United States suggested that O&M costs since 2000 range from USD 32/MWh (EUR 22) for projects built in the 1990s to USD 12/MWh (EUR 8) for projects built in the 2000s (US DOE, 2009), [29]. Based on experiences from Germany, Spain, the UK and Denmark, O&M costs are, in general, estimated to be at a level of approximately 1.2 to 1.5 c /kwh of produced wind power seen over the total lifetime, (Wind facts, costs and price). 4.3 Financing Schemes for Wind Park Projects in Egypt Egypt has many different types of financing its renewable projects as follows: Grant Scheme Grants was the first financing scheme, in this scheme local works such as civil works, and local transportation had been financed by NREA. This scheme applied for financing the pioneer and demonstration wind projects erected in Hurghada, in cooperation with USA, Denmark, and Germany. In addition used also for financing the first commercial large scale wind farm at Zafarana, with a total installed of 30 MW in co-operation with DANIDA Self-Finance/Grant Scheme In this scheme the maximum share of grants didn't exceed 25% of the total project investment. This regime has been applied for three large-scale wind farms in cooperation with DANIDA and KfW, with 110 MW total capacities Self-Finance Scheme Self-Finance Scheme; has been applied for the 85 MW wind farm in co-operation with the Spanish Government, in addition to three projects in the implementation phase with 320 MW total capacities. Foreign loans applied for the second or the third financing 77

93 schemes vary between soft, mixed credit, and commercial loans. Meanwhile, local loans offered from the Egyptian National Investment Bank, NIB, are commercial loans, [32]. 4.4 The expected investment cost for wind projects According to the last feasibility study for wind farm with a total capacity of 200 MW installed in Gulf of El Zayt we can expect the cost analysis for the other which will be installed in the future and may be will less than the investment cost due to the decrease of the cost with the time and especially wind projects which become commercialized projects. The cost estimates for the KfW wind park considered a proportional share of cost for the NREA service installations, the main substation and the OHTL interconnection. The estimated cost including consultancy services and 10% contingencies, and include even the local (EGP) or hard currency (EUR) 100 x 2 MW EUR EGP 189,550, Table 4-1: the expected investment of wind farm, source, 200 MW FS The wind park shall be operated by NREA. For that service installations shall be erected near the wind parks. A good indication for the expected O&M cost are the recently contracted Spare Part, Consumables and Service Cost for a three year warranty period. After the warranty and service period a portion of foreign currency cost is shifted towards local cost of NREA. The expected O&M cost are indicated below. 78

94 100 x 2 MW EUR EGP First 3 years 6.5 Mio 1.6 Mio After 3 years 6.0 Mio 6.0 Mio Table 4-2: Operation and Maintenance, source, 200 MW FS The financing requirements amount to 280 million EUR without interest during construction. Including IDC, the financing requirements ascend to 310 million EUR. The analysis shows clearly that the present feed-in tariffs are insufficient to achieve a satisfactory cash-flow in the first 10 years of the project life. A minimum feed-in tariff of some 35 Pt/kWh would be needed without income from CDM: In case of additional income from CDM, the minimum required feed-in tariff for financial sustainability is about 31 Pt /kwh, [33]. From the above data we can find that the total investment cost of the wind farm with total installed capacity about 200 MW in Egypt will be about 310 million Euros, and the sale tariff at least must be 35 pt. /kwh 79

95 4.5 The Expected Projects in the East and West Nile Banks When we apply the data of the expected land in the East and West Nile into the economic model of the previous project of Gulf of El Zayt, to install one project with a total installed capacity of 200 MW as an example to investigate the investment cost indications of this region, the input data of the project as follow Technical Data Project location West of the Nile Potential Site Installed Capacity MW Capacity factor 31% Energy Produced Equipment % MWhr/Year 70% Table 4-3: technical data of 200 MW wind in West of Nile The weighted capacity factor is 31% according to the added land of the expected region and so the total generated electricity less than the other regions with about 543 GWh/year. For the expected cost of this project according to the mentioned cost for wind farms we found the cost of each MW between 0.98 and 1.9 mil Euros /MW installed, it means the average cost of each MW installed is about 1.44 mil/ MW 80

96 Expected Cost EURO/kW Taxes (EURO/KW) Total Required Budget mio Euro Market Distortion Include Tax Duties 10.00% Include Customs 0.00% Table 4-4: the expected cost of the project The expected results of the data processing is as follow Levelized Prod. Cost Without CDM 7.25 Cent EURO/kWhr P.T./kWhr Levelized Prod. Cost With CDM 6.90 Cent EURO/kWhr P.T./kWhr SUBSIDY FROM CDM 0.34 Cent EURO/kWhr 2.75 P.T./kWhr Net Cash Mio. EURO IRR -4% Table 4-5: the results of the project of west of Nile These results means that the project will not be feasible for investment, because the selling tariff less than the LPC (40 PT/KWh), so the IRR negative and there is no income We have to sell the produced electricity from the wind farm by at least 60 PT/KWh to cover the investment cost of these projects. In this case we can find the change in the other results which means that the project will feasible economically By changing the sell price or feed in tariff we can increase the income from these projects 81

97 The 1st scenario when we put feed in tariff 60 PT/KWh Net Cash IRR Mio. EURO 9% The 2nd scenario FIT is 65 PT/KWh Net Cash IRR 18% Mio. EURO The 3rd scenario FIT 70 PT/KWh Net Cash IRR Mio. EURO 27% We have to make balance between the levelized production cost and the selling price to get an appropriate benefit and attract the private sector. This balance according to the agreement between the investors and the government to encourage the private sector. 82

98 4.6 Economic and Financial Evaluation for Concentrating Solar power Although the big difference in the capital investment cost between the projects of CSP and wind energy, currently CSP requires higher capital investments than wind energy, it offers considerable long-term benefits because of minimum fuel costs for backup/hybridization. Moreover, the initial investment costs varies from the small to big plants and decrease with the increase of the project, competition increases, equipment is mass produced, technology improves and the financial community gains confidence in CSP. In the near term, the economics of CSP will remain more favorable for peak and intermediate loads than for base loads, for reasons explained in this section, [34] Investment Costs For the CSP power plants with the most technology used is parabolic trough plants, current investment costs are USD 4200/KW to USD 8400/KW depending on many factors like labor and land costs, technologies, the amount and distribution of DNI and, above all, the amount of storage and the size of the solar field. Plants without storage that benefit from excellent DNI are on the low side of the investment cost range; plants with large storage and a higher load factor but at locations with lower DNI (around 2000 kwh/m2/year) are on the high side. These investments costs are slightly higher than those of PV devices, but CSP plants have a greater energy output per MW capacity. It is expected for the future the decrease of investment cost per watt for larger trough plants, going down by 12% when moving from 50 MW to 100 MW, and by about 20% when scaling up to 200 MW. Costs associated with power blocks, balance of plant and grid connection are expected to drop by 20% to 25% as plant capacity doubles. Investment costs are also likely to be driven down by increased competition among technology providers, mass production of components and greater experience in the financial community of investing in CSP projects. On the other hand the investment 83

99 costs for parabolic trough plants could fall by 10% to 20% by using DSG, which allows higher working temperatures and better efficiencies. Turbine manufacturers will need to develop effective power blocks for the CSP industry. In total, investment costs have the potential to be reduced by 30% to 40% in the next decade if these proposed action taken, [34] Operation and maintenance costs Operation and maintenance costs for CSP include plant operation, fuel expenses in the case of hybridization or backup, feed and cooling water, and field maintenance costs. A typical 50 MW trough plant requires about 30 employees for plant operation and 10 for field maintenance. Operation and maintenance costs have been assessed from USD 13/MWh to USD 30/MWh, including fuel costs for backup. As plants become larger, operation and maintenance costs will decrease, [34] Costs of providing finance for CSP plants There is a big difference between the financing schemes of CSP technology from one investment and legal environment to another according to significant consequences for the costs of generating electricity and the expected rates of return on investment. Large utilities building their own plants with available cash do not incur the costs that utilities or investors face when combining equity and loans from various sources to finance plants. Differences among fiscal regimes, in particular with respect to corporate taxes, have an impact on the turnkey costs (the expenditures necessary before a plant is ready for use) depending on how long it takes to secure financing and build the plant. This impact might be significant for CSP plants that may require one to two years of construction. The same parameters will have an even greater impact on the electricity generating costs, as capital expenses are much larger for CSP plants than for, say, fossil-fuel plants, [34]. 84

100 4.6.4 Generating costs The actual cost of electricity generated from CSP depends mostly on the available sunlight and how many hours the sun shining. Levelised energy costs, which estimate a plant s annualized lifetime cost per unit of electricity generation, range from USD 200/MWh to USD 295/MWh for large trough plants, the technology for which figures are most readily available. The impact of storage on generating costs is not as simple as it may seem. The investment cost increase when there is storage capacity, with the size of the solar field and the added storage but so do the capacity factor and the yearly electrical output (e.g. up to hours in Spain with 15 hours of storage), thus the energy cost changes only marginally. In any case, the main merit of storage is not to reduce the cost of electricity but to increase the value of the plant to the utility in making its capacity firm and allowing solar plants to compete with fossil-fuel plants by supplying base-load power in the nottoo-distant future, [32] The expected investment cost of CSP in Egypt According to the feasibility study which has been prepared to the solar power plant in Kom Ombo with total installed capacity of 100 MW, the total investment cost was 398 Million Euros for the solar only without storage. And the next table refers to the expected generated electricity from each scenarios of solar only and solar with auxiliary heating and finally solar with storage, we can find the simplest and cheapest one is the solar power plant only without storage, due to the increase in cost with more storage. The expected investment cost per MW for solar CSP plant is about 933TEGP (124 Euro), when the required or expected FIT will be about 2.12EGP/KWh, which considered more expensive than the mentioned in the wind energy. 85

101 100 MWel + 10% 50 MWel + 12h Auxiliary heating Storage 100 MWel 100 MWel 50 MWel ,975 4,105 9,300 Economic Levelized TEGP/MWh 984 1,044 Unit Costs (ELUC) 933 EUR/MWh Plant design Power block nominal 100 MWel Solar only capacity (electric) Net Electricity Generation [GWhel] Investment cost [Mio EUR] Specific investment cost [EUR/kW]2 feed in tariff required EGP/kWh Table 4-6: expected investment cost for CSP projects, PFC Kom Ombo Parabolic Trough Modeling in Solar Advisor Model (SAM) Overview of SAM SAM is a performance and economic model designed to facilitate decision making for people involved in the renewable energy industry, ranging from project managers and engineers to incentive program designers, technology developers, and researchers. SAM makes performance predictions for grid connected solar, small wind, and geothermal power systems and economic estimates for distributed energy and central generation projects. The model calculates the cost of generating electricity based on information you provide about a project's location, installation and 86

102 operating costs, type of financing, applicable tax credits and incentives, and system specifications. SAM also calculates the value of saved energy from a domestic solar water heating system. SAM is based on an hourly simulation engine that interacts with performance, cost, and finance models to calculate energy output, energy costs, and cash flows. The software can also account for the effect of incentives on project cash flows. SAM's spreadsheet interface allows for exchanging data with external models developed in Microsoft Excel. The model provides options for parametric studies, sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical analyses to investigate impacts of variations and uncertainty in performance, cost, and financial parameters on model results. SAM models system performance using the TRNSYS software developed at the University of Wisconsin combined with customized components. TRNSYS is a validated, time-series simulation program that can simulate the performance of photovoltaic, concentrating solar power, water heating systems, and other renewable energy systems using hourly resource data. TRNSYS is integrated into SAM so there is no need to install TRNSYS software or be familiar with its use to run SAM, [35]. 87

103 4.6.7 Concentrating Solar Power Plant Model We can use Solar Advisor Modeling to simulate a solar power plant using parabolic trough technology in Aswan region with a total installed capacity 100 MW solar only without storage. Figure 4-1: SAM Model Processing Aswan region is one of the regions has a good potential in solar energy with a direct normal irradiation of KWh/m2/year which will be suitable for a promised solar power plant and can be connected to the Aswan Luxor grid connection line The output data or the result of the simulation is 88

104 Figure 4-2: result of CSP SAM modeling The results refer to the approximately similarity between the SAM modeling and the results from the feasibility study in the case of technical data and the Net annual energy produce from the power plant and also in the LCOE, taking in our consideration the change in the location and so the DNI From the simulation of parabolic trough, it s found that the LCOE is nearly Cent USD /KWh, about 1.19 EGP, which means we can change the FIT according to this amount and so the change will be in IRR, in this case IRR is 15% 89

105 4.7 Economic and Financial Evaluation for Photovoltaic PV Due to the large variety of the applications of PV allows for a range of different technologies to be present in the market, from low-cost, lower efficiency technologies to high-efficiency technologies at higher cost. Note that the lower cost (per watt) to manufacture some of the module technologies, namely thin films, is partially offset by the higher area-related system costs (costs for mounting and the required land) due to their lower conversion efficiency. Figure (4-3) gives an overview of the cost and performance of different PV technologies. High investment costs, or total system costs, represent the most important barrier to PV deployment today, although they are decreasing rapidly as a result of technology improvements and economies of volume and scale. Total system costs are composed of the sum of module costs plus the expenses for the balance-of-system, including mounting structures, inverters, cabling and power management devices. While the costs of different technology module types vary on a per watt basis, these differences are less significant at the system level, which also takes into account the efficiency and land-use needs of the technology. Total system costs are sensitive to economies of scale and can vary substantially depending on the type of application. Typical turn-key prices in 2008 in leading market countries ranged from USD 4000 /kw for utility scale, multi-megawatt applications, to USD /kw for small-scale applications in the residential sector, [36]. With expanding polysilicon supplies, average PV prices are projected to drop to $2000/ Kw in For thin-film PV alone, production costs are expected to reach $1000/Kw in 2010, at which point solar PV will become competitive with coal-fired electricity. 90

106 Figure 4-3: current performance and price of different PV module technologies, source, PV road map Levelized Energy Production Cost The levelized electricity generation costs (LEGC) of PV systems depend mainly on two factors: the amount of irradiation of sunlight during the year (and associated capacity factor), and the interest/discount rate. The operation and maintenance costs of the PV systems relatively small, there are no moving parts, estimated at around 1% of capital investment per year. Assuming an interest rate of 10%, the PV electricity generation costs in 2008 for utility-scale applications ranged from USD 240 /MWh in locations with very high irradiation and capacity factor (2 000 kwh/kw, i.e. a 23% capacity factor), to USD 480 /MWh in sites with moderate-low irradiation (1000 kwh/kw, corresponding to a capacity factor of 11%). When the cost of electricity generated for a 91

107 residential use, PV systems ranged from USD /MWh, depending on the relevant incident solar energy. While these residential costs are very high, it should be noted that residential PV systems provide electricity at the distribution grid level. Therefore they compete with electricity grid retail prices, which, in a number of OECD countries, can also be very high, [34] Cost Reduction Goals The essential target of PV economic is to reduce turnkey system prices and electricity generation costs; it is expected to reduce by more than two-thirds by Turn-key system prices are expected to drop by 70% from current USD 4000 to USD 6000 per kw down to USD 1200 to USD 1800 per kw by 2030, with a major price reduction (over 50%) already achieved by Large scale utility system prices are expected to drop to USD 1800 per kw by 2020 and USD 800 per kw by 2050, and in the best case will lead to long-term levelised generation costs lower than USD 50/MWh, [36] Cost of Turnkey PV in Germany drops, (the German experience) The German experience with PV technology system considered the leading and the most successful all over the world, through encouraging spreading this technology. Germany installed a record 3.8 GW of solar PV in 2009; in contrast, the US installed about 500 MW in The previous record, 2.6 GW, was set by Spain in Germany was also the fastest growing major PV market in the world from 2006 to 2007 industry observers speculate that Germany could install more than 4.5 GW in In fact Germany installed 7.25 GW in The German PV industry generates over 10,000 jobs in production, distribution and installation. By the end of 2006, nearly 88% of all solar PV installations in the EU were in grid-tied applications in Germany, [37]. According to Germany's PhotovoltaikZentrum, which interests for surveys of the PV projects installation prices in Germany, in 2010 the price of installed PV dropped by 20.58% to 2,740 euros per installed kilowatt? The survey is based on responses given 92

108 by 2,758 array owners from all over Germany who installed arrays smaller than 100 kilowatts in This decrease in the price considered the greatest since the first survey in 2006, when an installed kilowatt of photovoltaic cost around 5000 euros. In 2007, prices had only dropped slightly down to around 4,800 euros, but prices began plummeting in 2008, when an installed kilowatt cost around 4,300 euros, a decrease of just over 10 percent. In 2009, prices then dropped by 19.77% to around 3,450 euros. In total, the price of installed photovoltaic has dropped by around 45 % in Germany since It is important to keep in mind that the prices for crystalline panels on the spot market in Germany have fallen to around 1.8 euros per watt for modules from Europe and Japan and to around 1.60 euros for modules from China. It is therefore roughly possible to estimate what the local added value is even if the panels themselves are imported from China. If we assume that the difference between 2.70 (installed price) and 1.60 euros per watt (module price) is locally made installation equipment and local services charged by installers, then the local added value is potentially already at 42 % in Germany even if the panels are imported from China. Furthermore, Germany proves that feed-in tariffs with a regular schedule of decreasing rates can bring down prices drastically. While the official figures are not yet in from Germany's Network Agency, the German Solar Industry Association estimates that some 7-8 giga watts were newly installed in Germany in Spread across an estimated 230,000 solar arrays, the average array size comes in at roughly 32.6 kilowatts, which shows that Germany remains a market largely driven by homeowners. Thanks to this unparalleled growth, a strong wholesale market and a large pool of skilled installers have been created in Germany. At the current exchange rate of roughly 1.33 US dollars per euro, 2,740 euros is equivalent to 3,644 US dollars, but the cost of installed photovoltaic in the US is nowhere near 3,600 dollars. In December, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory published its estimates of the installed cost of photovoltaic in the US for 93

109 2010. After stagnating at around 7.50 US dollars per watt in 2008 in 2009, the price of an installed array smaller than 100 kilowatts in California had fallen in the first six months of 2010 to 6.1 dollars, compared to 5.7 dollars per watt (or 5,700 dollars per kilowatt) in New Jersey -- but prices can be expected to be much greater in other states, where PV markets are far less mature. Those who argue that feed-in tariffs keep the cost of photovoltaic high should explain why arrays in the US cost at least 60 percent more than they do in Germany, [38] The Expected Investment Cost of PV in Egypt With reference to the feasibility study which prepared by EM power program for 100 MWp Solar PV Plant Kom Ombo, Jan 2010 The investment costs used in the analysis represent first quarter 2010 market prices and are based on benchmark cost of EPC contracts for private investors, which have been obtained through evaluation of numerous EPC contracts in southern Europe. A minor discount on the services and components with higher national share of supply has been considered. The costs reflect the current market price of contracts from international EPC contractors with experience in large scale PV plant erection. The cost indicated above covers the complete PV power plant including land preparation, control and security, access and grid connection. System Kom Ombo 100 MWp grid connected system Investment cost [Mio EUR] Specific investment cost [EUR/kW] 2,460 Table 4-7: investment cost of 100 MW PV power plants, source PFC of PV in Kom Ombo 94

110 4.7.5 Tariff Requirements According to the financial analysis which was carried out to determine the project s required tariff given the target indicators for investor s financial benefits, using the same cost assumptions and time schedules as in the economic analysis. The expected economic levelized unit costs amounted to 1,242 TEGP/MWh which is within the typical range for photovoltaic installations in tropical climates. On the other hand, the economic rate of the project is negative. Among the funding options, Development Bank Financing generates the lowest project feed-in tariff requirement of 1.60 EGP/kWh (0.20 EUR/kWh) and payback period of 7 years, [39] PV Power Plant SAM Model Using PV model with total installed 20 MW in Cairo airport weather to verify the results coming from the feasibility study or make comparison, After making the simulation using the SAM modeling we found the technical results in the annual energy production is nearly similar, but the change in economic results due to the different installed capacity In the feasibility study the total installed capacity is about 100 MW and the the SAM model is 20 MW, it means that, the increase in the installed capacity will decrease the investment cost and so the LCOE 95

111 Table 4-8: results of SAM simulation for 20 MW PV 96

112 4.8 General Economic evaluation and Impacts General economic indicators To conclude the economic evaluation for the three technologies, it is clear that the wind energy is the leading and the commercial technology which reached to be a competitive energy source with the other traditional resources. The market investment cost of the wind energy become about USD 1.45 to USD 2.6 million/mw (EUR 1 to EUR 1.9 million), and the production cost range from a low of USD 70 (EUR 50)/MWh, under the best circumstances, to a high of USD 130 (EUR 90), the expected production cost for the electricity generated in Egypt is to be 72Euro/MWh without the CDM subsidize, and so the selling tariff will be about at least 8 cent Euro /KWh (65 PT) For the CSP technology the market cost is more expensive than the wind energy and expected to be decreased with the next few years, it reached to be about USD 4200/KW to USD 8400/KW (Euro 525 to 1050)/ KW, and the generating costs range from USD 200/MWh to USD 295/MWh (Euro 25 to 37)/ MWh, the expected investment cost for the CSP plants in Egypt is to be about 933 EGP (124 Euro), when the required or expected FIT will be about 2.12EGP/KWh For the PV technology and according to the German projects at the year 2010, the estimation is about 2,740 Euros/KW; the production cost was about from USD 240 /MWh to USD 480 /MWh (Euro 30 to 60)/MWh, and the expected investment cost for the Egyptian market is 2,460 Euro/KWh and The expected economic levelized unit costs amounted to 1,242 TEGP/MWh, the lowest project feed-in tariff requirement of 1.60 EGP/kWh (0.20 EUR/kWh) and payback period of 7 years 97

113 4.8.2 General economic impacts The expected wind projects during the wind park construction and operation would have many economic benefits. About 30 to 40 % of the investment volume would be produced locally. During construction there will be an employment opportunities, local personnel would be employed for civil, electrical and installation works. The works would be carried out essentially by Egyptian companies. During the operation a significant number of electricians, mechanics, engineers and workers would be employed for O&M of the wind park. At steadily increasing oil prices wind power utilization, especially at a site with very high wind energy potential like the NREA area, is approaching competitiveness. It saves indigenous gas and oil reserves, which alternatively could be exported at world market prices. For the CSP projects the expected impacts will be to offer Jobs: - Direct Jobs, Temporary Engineering, Procurement, Construction, Permanent Operations, Maintenance, Engineering, Administrative - Indirect Jobs. Manufacturing, Hospitality & Services, Infrastructure, Ancillary Commerce Private Investment: Plant and transmission facilities, ancillary businesses and infrastructure Tax Base Increase: Real and personal property tax, sales tax, employment and income taxes 98

114 5 CHAPTER FIVE: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS EVALUATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY In this section an evaluation for environmental impacts of different renewable energy and specially the projects which will be in Egypt mainly wind and solar energy, the evaluation depends on the data collection from different web sites and papers. The general view of the land location which used for the wind farms or solar power plants are desert land, it means that most of the environmental impacts are very low and in some regions neglected, it is far from the population, the agriculture regions and may be far from the bird migrations direction. 5.1 Introduction The environmental problems is the result for the fossil and nuclear energy sources use, the energy use and supply is the most fundamental importance to society and life. The most environmental impacts of burning fossil fuels including: Global climate change, acidification of ecosystems, risks from nuclear accidents, long term accumulation of radioactive waste, and effects on the public health from air pollution. With the possible exception of agriculture and forestry, energy has made the greatest impact on the environment of any human activity - a result of the large scale and pervasive nature of energy related activities. Although the local effect of using energy on the environment such as problems associated with extraction, transport or noxious emissions - they have now widened to cover regional and global issues such as acid rain and the greenhouse effect. Such problems have now become major political issues and the subject of international debate and regulation, [40]. It is a great challenge to win the fight against climate change without a dramatic shift in the way of electricity production and encouraging the use of renewable energy resources to face the increase in electricity demand. The power sector accounts for around 40% of global CO2 99

115 emissions, renewable energy technologies must be rolled out quickly to provide emissions-free renewable electricity for industrialized and developing countries alike. As renewable energy technologies rely on natural energy and material flow cycles, they can reduce the environmental impact of energy supply. Although for most of them the energy conversion process is emission free, environmental impacts result from the provision of raw materials and the manufacturing and disposal of components, [41]. Electricity consumption will be changed due to the Climate change which will alter energy demand patterns. Electricity consumption in the Mediterranean region will increase due to projected temperature increases and the associated increasing demand for space cooling. Energy demand for space heating in northern Europe will decrease, but the net effect across Europe is difficult to predict. Climate change will affect power production. Due to projected changes in river runoff, hydropower production will increase in northern Europe and decrease in the south. Furthermore, across Europe, summer droughts are projected to be more severe, limiting the availability of cooling water and thus reducing the efficiency of thermal power plants. Both types of impacts may lead to changes in emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from energy, which are, however, difficult to estimate at present, [42]. 5.2 The Impact of Wind Energy on Climate Change The impact of Wind farms may be strong on the surrounding area and it may affect weather in their immediate vicinity. The mixing of heat and water vapor which generated from the closed box of turbine rotors generate a lot of turbulence in their wakes like the wake of a boat. This turbulence affects the meteorological conditions downwind. Many studies had been demonstrated to investigate the impacts of wind farms on weather and climate used a regional climate model. The main results of these studies refer to; wind farms lead to a warming at night and cooling during the day time. Which means a kind of climate change will happen in this region and to reduce this effect we have to use more efficient rotors or placing wind farms in regions with high 100

116 natural turbulence. Other studies have used climate models to study the effect of extremely large wind farms. The result of the simulations shows detectable changes in global climate for very high wind farm usage, on the order of 10% of the world's land area. Wind power has a negligible effect on global mean surface temperature, and it would deliver "enormous global benefits by reducing emissions of CO2 and air pollutants". Another study suggested that by using wind turbines to meet 10% of global energy demand in 2100 this could actually have a warming effect, causing temperatures to rise by one degree Celsius in the regions on land where the wind farms are installed, including a smaller increase in areas beyond those regions, [43]. 5.3 Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Pollution Wind power is clean electricity without any other pollution during the operation and there is no emissions directly related to production. Wind turbines produce no carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, mercury, particulates, or any other type of air pollution, unlike fossil fuel power sources. Wind power plants consume resources in manufacturing and construction. using fossil fuels During manufacture of the wind turbine, steel, concrete, aluminium and other materials will have to be made and transported using energy-intensive processes, this will cause emissions. The wind turbine manufacturer Vestas states that initial carbon dioxide emissions "payback" is within about 9 months of operation for off shore turbines. There was a study in 2006 found that the total emissions of CO2 of wind power to range from 14 to 33 tons per GWh of energy produced. Most of the CO2 emission comes from producing the concrete for wind-turbine foundations. On the other hand the generating electricity from wind energy instead of fossil fuels makes reductions of in CO2 emissions ranging from 0.33 to 0.59 tons of CO2 / MWh, [43] How Much CO2 Can Wind Energy Save? The calculations on just how much CO2 could be saved by wind energy is based on an assumption for the carbon intensity of the global electricity sector, i.e. the typical 101

117 amount of CO2 emitted by producing one kwh of power. Individual countries emissions differ substantially, but here we use the IEA s estimate of 600g/kWh as an average value for the carbon dioxide reduction to be obtained from wind generation, (wind road map, 2010). Figure 5-1: Global Power Capacity and avoided CO2 emissions ( ), source wind roadmap GW ,081 2,375 mil tco2/year ,591 3,236 Table 5-1: Global Power Capacity and avoided CO2 emissions ( ), source wind roadmap The expected CO2 emission will be avoided by the generated electricity from wind energy up to 2020 will be estimated as approximately 18.6 mil ton CO2. 102

118 5.4 Environmental Impacts of Wind farms The environmental impact of wind energy is relatively minor when comparing it with the huge impact of fossil fuels specially the amount of CO2 emission. Wind energy does not consume any fuel and there is no any pollution production, so it is considered a free emission energy source. Wind farms are seen as a great way of generating green electricity without polluting the environment; however do they cause their own environmental problems? There are plenty of concerns about the environmental problems caused by wind farms which will be explained in details below Noise Problems The noises created by wind turbine make people worried; the noise has been minimized, by designing the turbines to minimize noise. Modern wind farms do not create huge amounts of noise as many people expect. Modern wind turbines produce significantly less noise than older designs. Turbine designers work to minimize noise, as noise reflects lost energy and output. Noise levels at nearby residences may be managed through the siting of turbines, the approvals process for wind farms, and operational management of the wind farm. In a 2009 report about "Rural Wind Farms", a Standing Committee of the Parliament of New South Wales, Australia, recommended a minimum setback of two kilometers between wind turbines and neighboring houses (which can be waived by the affected neighbor) as a precautionary approach. In July 2010, Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council reported that "there is no published scientific evidence to support adverse effects of wind turbines on health". A 2008 guest editorial in Environmental Health Perspectives' published by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, the U.S. National Institutes of Health, stated: "Even seemingly clean sources of energy can have implications on human health. Wind energy will undoubtedly create noise, which increases stress, which in turn increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer." A 2007 report by the U.S. 103

119 National Research Council noted that noise produced by wind turbines is generally not a major concern for humans beyond a half-mile or so. Low-frequency vibration and its effects on humans are not well understood and sensitivity to such vibration resulting from wind-turbine noise is highly variable among humans. There are opposing views on this subject, and more research needs to be done on the effects of low-frequency noise on humans, [43] Interference Wind turbines have moving blades which could make disturbance for the TV and Radio signal, and so cause interference affecting TV and radio transmissions. It is well known that obstacles affect radio and TV transmissions. However the blades are made out of synthetic materials to minimize the risk. The generator and transformer could potentially emit small levels of electromagnetic radiation, however these emissions will be very week, and as the turbines are located off the ground, there is no risk at all, [44] Appearance The appearance of wind turbine different from person to another, so it is a very personal topic; it depends mainly on whether people like the look of them or thinks that they destroy the look of the landscape. This opinion depends on the background of each one, if he knows the benefits of the using of wind energy instead of traditional energy or just a structure like anything Land use The land of wind farms can be used for another purposes like farming for example, wind farms are normally built in mountainous regions to get higher wind speeds. In mountainous or desert regions, farming normally concentrates on sheep and goats. The sheep actually like wind turbines as they provide shade during hot days. 104

120 The land can still be used for farming and cattle grazing. Livestock are unaffected by the presence of wind farms. International experience shows that livestock will "graze right up to the base of wind turbines and often use them as rubbing posts or for shade". Wind-energy advocates contend that less than 1% of the land would be used for foundations and access roads, the other 99% could still be used for farming. Critics point out that the clearing of trees around tower bases may be necessary for installation sites on mountain ridges, such as in the northeastern U.S. Turbines are not generally installed in urban areas. Buildings interfere with wind, turbines must be sited a safe distance ("setback") from residences in case of failure, and the value of land is high. There are a few notable exceptions to this, [43] Impact on wildlife Environmental assessments are routinely carried out for wind farm proposals, and potential impacts on the local environment (e.g. plants, animals, soils) are evaluated. Turbine locations and operations are often modified as part of the approval process to avoid or minimize impacts on threatened species and their habitats. Any unavoidable impacts can be offset with conservation improvements of similar ecosystems which are unaffected by the proposal. Projects such as the Black Law Wind Farm have received wide recognition for its contribution to environmental objectives, including praise from the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, who describe the scheme as both improving the landscape of a derelict opencast mining site and also benefiting a range of wildlife in the area, with an extensive habitat management projects covering over 14 square kilometers, [43] Safety Operation of any utility-scale energy conversion system presents safety hazards. Wind turbines do not consume fuel or produce pollution during normal operation, but still have hazards associated with their construction, operation and maintenance. 105

121 With the installation of industrial sized wind turbines numbering in the thousands, there have been at least 40 fatalities of workers due to the construction, operation, and maintenance of wind turbines, and other injuries and deaths attributed to the wind power life cycle. Most worker deaths involve falls or becoming caught in machinery while performing maintenance inside turbine housings. If a turbine's brake fails, the turbine can spin freely until it disintegrates or catches fire. Often turbine fires cannot be extinguished because of the height, and are left to burn themselves out. In the process, they generate toxic fumes and can scatter flaming debris over a wide area, starting secondary fires below. Several turbine-ignited fires have burned hundreds of acres of vegetation each, and one burned 800 square kilometers (200,000 acres) of Australian National Park. During winter ice may form on turbine blades and subsequently be thrown off during operation. This is a potential safety hazard and has led to localized shut-downs of turbines. Electronic controllers and safety sub-systems monitor many different aspects of the turbine, generator, tower, and environment to determine if the turbine is operating in a safe manner within prescribed limits. These systems can temporarily shut down the turbine due to high wind, electrical load imbalance, vibration, and other problems. Recurring or significant problems cause a system lockout and notify an engineer for inspection and repair. In addition, most systems include multiple passive safety systems that stop operation even if the electronic controller fails. In his book Wind Energy Comes of Age, Paul Gipe estimated that the mortality rate for wind power from was 0.4 deaths per terawatt-hour. Paul Gipe's estimate as of end 2000 was 0.15 deaths per TWh, a decline attributed to greater total cumulative generation, [43]. 106

122 5.5 The Environmental Impacts of Wind Farms in Egypt The assessment of the different possible environmental impacts, which may be caused by wind power development Egypt, did not show any significant bottleneck except limitations set by expected impacts to the avi-fauna. The Consideration of competing environmental interests, such as bird protection and renewable energy generation and implied CO2 avoidance is the most important aspects, the most environmental impacts of wind farms in Egypt according to the last feasibility study for wind farm and this land similar to the other regions in the other promised locations for other wind farms in Egypt, the source (200MW FS in GZ 2008) Land characteristics and use: All the area is consisting of desert ground (compacted gravel or rocky) and not ecologically sensitive. Very little deterioration is expected. According to the previous information received from last feasibility studies, the selected area is free from oil concessions Flora and Fauna (without avi-fauna): The field survey revealed that due to the desert nature of the land, there is a complete absence of flora and very limited expected fauna, which is of common nature. Accordingly, wind park utilization in the area will have no impacts on the biodiversity and other environmental characteristics of the site. Not a single specie or animal recorded in the area or expected to occur in it, is included in the Red Lists, both internationally or nationally. Moreover, the nature of wind parks, which leaves most of the wind park area untouched, is not critical to the rare existing fauna (not considering avifauna) in that area, if basic mitigation measures are kept Avifauna: Although, this area is away from the main migration routes and does not show topographical bottlenecks, some smaller amounts of migrating birds were assessed to 107

123 likely occur in that part of the greater area. Therefore, the wind park installation requires technical Avoidance/mitigation measures at the plants and in the infra-structure itself as to the best practicable standard. Moreover, a careful post installation monitoring programme needs to be executed to assess, whether the impacts in a wind park will remain on acceptable level or whether additional measures will have to be carried out Water quality: Wind power utilization in the area will not have any effects to the groundwater and surface water. Eventually constructed service buildings near to the area, such as store, control and apartment buildings, shall be interconnected to the existing water pipeline and equipped with an appropriate waste water treatment system (e.g. septic tank with underground seepage and regular sludge collection) Air quality: Some additional dust will occur locally during construction works what, however, is not critical because of the absence of population or wildlife, which may be affected Noise levels: There is no settlement area in the surroundings of the proposed area. Antiquities or sites of historical & cultural importance: None 108

124 5.6 Environmental Effects of Solar Energy Solar energy is the source for electricity without air pollution during operation and generation mode, only the impact of solar on the environment and the health during the manufacturing, installation and the wastes after finishing. Materials used in some solar systems can create health and safety hazards for workers and anyone else coming into contact with them. The most danger comes from the manufacturing of Photovoltaic cells often requires hazardous materials such as arsenic and cadmium. Even relatively inert silicon, a major material used in solar cells, can be hazardous to workers if it is breathed in as dust. Effective measures must be taken to protect the Workers involved in manufacturing photovoltaic modules and components to protect them from exposure to these materials. There is an additional-probably very small-danger that hazardous fumes released from photovoltaic modules attached to burning homes or buildings could injure fire fighters. None of these potential hazards is much different in quality or magnitude from the innumerable hazards people face routinely in an industrial society. This danger can be removed or reduce through effective regulation, the dangers can very likely be kept at a very low level. For the Wildlife protection when using the large amount of land required for utility-scale solar power plants- which approximately one square kilometer for every megawatts (MW) generated. Ecosystems can also be affected by Water from underground wells may be required to clean concentrators and receivers and to cool the generator, which may harm the ecosystem in dry climates. Large central power plants are not the only option for generating energy from sunlight, however, and are probably among the least promising. Because sunlight is dispersed, small-scale, dispersed applications are a better match to the resource. They can take advantage of unused space on the roofs of homes and buildings and in urban and industrial lots. And, in solar building designs, the structure itself acts as the collector, so there is no need for any additional space at all, [45]. 109

125 5.6.1 Carbon Emissions There is no carbon emissions, this is the best thing when we use solar energy to generate electricity, so that the there is no greenhouse gases, It doesn't burn oil, it doesn't produce toxic waste, and its lack of moving parts reduces the chances of an environmentally devastating accident to nil. By using solar energy to generate electricity for a large scale will reduce its environmental footprint to tiny fractions of its current level, [46] Abundant Components The photovoltaic cells which constitute most solar energy systems are usually made of silicon, one of the most common minerals found on Earth. That means that creating the components is extremely easy, doesn't require mining or drilling in a dangerous locale to produce, and can be acquired without involvement in politically unstable areas such as the Middle East. The environmental effects of this are subtle but, because fewer resources are expended in the acquisition of silicon, its overall effect on the ecosystem is reduced, [46] Cadmium Cadmium is used in cadmium telluride solar cells as a semiconductor to convert solar energy into electricity. Though used in very small amounts, it is extremely toxic and can build up in a given ecosystem if it isn't monitored. Firms which make this kind of solar cell often instigate recycling programs so that damaged or unusable cells don't inadvertently damage the surrounding environment, [46] Ecological Concerns The pro-alternative energy site Cooler Planet points out that many conservationist groups are concerned about animal habitat depletion. There are concerns that the large spaces required for solar energy production will create habitat problems, but these doubts are often not balanced against the environmental needs of other power110

126 generation facilities. For example, a solar power generation plant requires the destruction of fewer habitats than a coal-generating station when the land space of the mines producing the coal is added into the equation, [46]. 111

127 6 CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Introduction The goal of this thesis is to study the renewable energy strategy in Egypt up to the year 2020, and the different challenges technical, economic and environmental which may face it. Possible scenarios for the estimating the expected total generated electricity from different resources thermal and renewables at this year 2020 have been investigated taking into considerations the renewable energy planned projects. Is there is a gap between the targeted goals and the projects installed and planned?, and if there is a gap, how could this gap covered?. Alternative scenarios consider different site locations according to the projects criteria (wind, solar CSP, solar PV, ), the expected investment cost, the production cost and the sell tariff. In this study a model has been built and used to forecasting the electricity generation, a gap between the targeted goal and the installations has been found. Also SAM, simulation model has been used to check the findings with the model have been built, and results are matched. SAM model used also to estimate economic parameters. Main conclusions on the current study and recommended actions to speed the renewable energy in Egypt are presented below. 6.2 Conclusions on the Present Work Energy Planning Model refers to an annual growth rate of electricity generation by 6.4% until the year 2020, this result has been concluded based on past electricity demand and the expected increased demand. Accordingly, the total generated electricity will reach GWh. Consequently the estimated share of renewable energy, 20% of the total generated electricity, is about GWh. This renewable energy could be occurred from different sources, 12% wind with total generated electricity GWh, 112

128 4% solar energy with total generated electricity GWh, and 4% Hydro power with total generated electricity about GWh. The estimated generated electricity from the projects, established and planned, to cover the strategy is about GWh, which considered 13.75% from the total expected generated. So, there is a deficit of about 6.25%, estimates approximately GWh by year To cover this shortage there is a need to plan erecting more wind, solar, and biomass projects. For wind energy, based on Egypt Wind Atlas suitable locations for establishing wind farms could be determined according to the following priorities: the east and west banks of the Nile, the Gulf of Suez, and some areas located in the Western Desert. These sites were chosen based on wind energy potential, the wind speed varies between 7 and 8 m/s, which result a weighted capacity factor about 30% to 35%. Concerning solar energy, solar maps of Egypt indicate some of the promising locations which are suitable for CSP and PV applications. Such sites exist in Abu Simbel, Toshka, Kom Umbo, Esna, Marsa Alam, Quseir Resory, West and South of Safaga, Hurgada, Kuraymat, and Farafra Oasis. The total recommended projects for these locations are around 1863 MW installed capacity of PV and about 1935 MW installed of CSP. Moreover the Egypt coastal strip at the Mediterranean and Red Sea have a good potential for CSP with water desalination projects with estimated capacity of about 2.1 GW of installed power and 1.7 Mil. m3 of installed desalination water. Either for solar or wind projects several studies are needed to check the suitability of these sites such as, environmental impact assessment, ornithological studies, grid situation, etc. consequently, it is expected that some of the proposed areas could not be used as part of the proposed solution. The economic evaluation for these renewable projects refers to that the investment cost of the renewable energy technology varies from one to another according to the total 113

129 installed all over the world and the mass production of its components, the wind energy is the commercial technology till now and expected decrease in the investment cost of CSP and PV projects for next years. The market investment cost of the wind energy become about (EUR 1 to EUR 1.9 million) /MW, and the production cost range from a low of (EUR 50)/MWh, under the best circumstances, to a high of (EUR 90), the expected production cost for the electricity generated in Egypt is to be 72Euro/MWh without the CDM subsidize, and so the selling tariff will be about at least 8 cent Euro /KWh (65 PT)/KWh For the CSP technology the market cost is more expensive than the wind energy and expected to be decreased with the next few years, it reached to be about (Euro 525 to 1050)/ KW, and the generating costs range from (Euro 25 to 37) / MWh, the expected investment cost for the CSP plants in Egypt is to be about 933 EGP (124 Euro), when the required or expected FIT will be about 2.12EGP/KWh For the PV technology and according to the German projects at the year 2010, the estimation is about 2,740 Euros/KW; the production cost was about from (Euro 30 to 60)/MWh, and the expected investment cost for the Egyptian market is 2,460 Euro/KWh and The expected economic levelized unit costs amounted to 1,242 EGP/MWh, the lowest project feed-in tariff requirement of 1.60 EGP/kWh (0.20 EUR/kWh) and payback period of 7 years The environmental impacts of wind and solar projects in Egypt are limited, the general view of the land location which used for the wind farms or solar power plants are desert land, it means that most of the environmental impacts are very low and in some regions neglected, it is far from the population, the agriculture regions and may be far from the bird migrations direction. 114

130 6.3 Recommendations and Proposed Actions to Foster RE In Egypt Renewable energy is the coming future and the best choice for securing energy demand to the next generations with clean environment. Egypt is a rich country with renewable resources which can be used for power generation on a commercial scale. to foster renewable energy we will need more capacity building with more awareness through the different media facilities to strength the concept of renewable energy and the importance of using it instead of conventional resources, and on the other hand the concept of energy conservation and energy efficiency for electrical appliance which will reduce the electricity consumption, for this purpose many effective measures must be taken from the decision maker or suggested from the institutions and organizations which interested in the field of renewable energy technology development, hereinafter some suggestions for action plans to speed the utilization of renewable energy technologies, these actions may be acceptable or non-acceptable from some experts, this debate very useful for more development and spread the use of RE technologies Fossil-Fuels Subsidizes In Egypt, most of the fossil fuels are subsidized. These subsidies may be reduced gradually, to make renewable-energy marketable with cost competitiveness, these resources will be presented to citizens at its real cost, but added that butane will continue to be subsidized through cash payments to individuals, rather than what he called in-kind support, This will increase the end user electricity price which put the price of conventional and renewable energy in comparison and the choice will be to the consumers Access to Transmission, Grid Connection The right to access and connect to the grid must be obligated for all renewable plants, which facilitate the electricity-wheeling between buyer and seller that provides open 115

131 access to customers. Transmission-services should not discriminate against, or give unfair advantage to, specific ownership or certain types of generation Promoting and Encouraging Solar Water Heating Systems The use of solar water heater even in the domestic or commercial use will be reduce the electricity consumption for heating water and we can benefit from this electricity in another sector and decrease loads from the grid. The main barrier for the use of SWHS is the high initial cost, financial support from the government and the private sector and donor agencies should be put in place, so the proposal action can help and support the use of SWHS and at the same time support the local industries and decrease the unemployment. This proposal depends on a financial program to encourage citizens to use the solar water heater instead of the electrical or gas water heater by the following steps: Funding system to facilitate the acquisition of solar heaters in Egypt 1. The electricity distribution companies make a contracting with solar water consumers against payment of 10% of the total cost and the rest will be added as monthly installment on the electric bill each month so as not to bear the high cost of consumer the boiler solar. 2. Electricity distribution companies will make contract with the national banks to finance the project through soft loans to cover 70% of the total cost. 3. The bank benefits will be covered through the support of international organizations and bodies which encourage and support the clean and renewable energy 4. The last 20% of the cost will be covered through national funds such as the support fund for renewable energy which ratified by the supreme council of energy to encourage the use of RETs 5. The electricity distribution companies will make a contract with the local manufacturing and suppliers of SWHS for supplying a large number of solar 116

132 water heaters with capacity of 150 liter, (enough for a family of five persons), through public tender in accordance with the following specifications:. The solar water heater certificate quite standard technical specifications The contract includes the installation and maintenance throughout the period of hire purchase (5 years, 10 years, and 15 years) Educate the Awareness about the Role of Renewable Energy It is very important that the general public and local populations in in Egypt of a proposed development understand the full value of wind energy and using solar energy technologies. The variability characteristic of renewable energy is taken by some as a measure of unreliability so that its role in strategic socio environmental strategy to abate CO2 emissions is often underestimated. This needs to be addressed with effective public information campaigns that highlight quantifiable benefits of the technology. To achieve this awareness, there is a need for training courses, demonstration systems, brochures, and workshops for targeted users. These programs should be prepared based on market surveys and studies Research, Development and Demonstration Support of Local Industry Egypt must take effective measures toward encouraging the researches and support the local manufacturing to transfer the technology from the advanced countries and start self-reliance Garbage-To-Energy- Recycling Instead Of Burning Take one problem - worthless garbage - and solve energy crises. Garbage then becomes a good thing a fuel Some researchers at the University of California have come up with ways to draw energy from the garbage you dispose into bio-gas that has the potential to 117

133 generate electricity and can power homes and offices. They have devised a digester which works in two-stages (unlike most digesters which use just one stage). Typically, all the food waste and other such forms of garbage is collected from homes and restaurants for instance and is fed into these digesters which allow this feed to undergo decomposition which is naturally occurring. Different classes of bacteria have different effects on feed like this, but our group of bacteria actually decomposes the entire feedstock and produces methane (up to 60-80%) which can then be used as fuel to provide electricity.[47] Energy Production per Ton of Garbage, If the landfills can be spared from the leftover food and other digestible waste, it can all be used to produce power to run our homes. It is estimated that one ton of leftover food can power a whopping 18 homes. The capacity of this process is slated to power about 25 homes a day and can also be extended to other uses such as fuel processing plants. This is bound to be eco-friendly, easy for the industry to adopt and a great energy source for the rest of the world. For the Egyptian case, we have huge quantities of garbage in every place in all cities and villages, we can collect every day what we need for producing energy or estimated energy for each place individually, and use this energy for homes or another purposes instead of using electricity from the conventional resources A contract can be signed (were asked to sign) long term in every city or village to deliver and pay for a guaranteed supply of garbage. If the city didn t have enough garbage, it had to pay anyway. The incentive to recycle would be gone. 118

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