An Assessment for Technical, Economic, and Environmental Challenges Facing Renewable Energy Strategy in Egypt

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1 An Assessment for Technical, Economic, and Environmental Challenges Facing Renewable Energy Strategy in Egypt By Eng. Ehab Mohamed Farouk Abd El Aziz Mohi El Din A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Engineering at Kassel University Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE In RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY REMENA FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, KASSEL UNIVERSITY KASSEL, GERMANY 2011

2 An Assessment for Technical, Economic, and Environmental Challenges Facing Renewable Energy Strategy in Egypt By Eng. Ehab Mohamed Farouk Abd El Aziz Mohi El Din A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Engineering at Kassel University Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE In RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY REMENA Under Supervision of Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Schmid Prof. Dr. Mohamed Salah El Sobki (Jr.) Fraunhofer-IWES Professor Electric Power Systems Universität Kassel Cairo University Dr. Mohamed Moustafa El khayat New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, KASSEL UNIVERSITY KASSEL, GERMANY 2011

3 An Assessment for Technical, Economic, and Environmental Challenges Facing Renewable Energy Strategy in Egypt By Eng. Ehab Mohamed Farouk Abd El Aziz Mohi El Din A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Engineering at Kassel University Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE In RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY REMENA Approved by the Examining Committee Prof. Dr. Prof. Dr. Prof. Dr. FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, KASSEL UNIVERSITY KASSEL, GERMANY 2011

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES... VI LIST OF TABLES... VIII NOMENCLATURE... IX ACKNOWLEDGMENT... XI ABSTRACT...XII 1 CHAPTER ONE: ENERGY SITUATION IN EGYPT Introduction Energy Institutions and Governance in the Energy Sector The Ministry for Electricity and Energy (MOEE) The Ministry of Petroleum (MOP) Supreme Council of Energy (SCE) Energy Policy Energy Situation in Egypt Oil Natural Gas Electricity situation in Egypt Conventional Thermal Hydropower Wind Solar Nuclear International Connections CHAPTER TOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN EGYPT Energy Demand Scenarios for Egypt Energy Consumption I

5 Drivers of Energy Demand Electricity Market Design Background Present Status of Electricity Market The Proposed Electricity Market Structure Tariffs Independent Power Producers, IPPs IPP frameworks and projects developed IPPs Projects in Egypt Future IPPs Projects in Egypt IPPs Projects Evaluation CHAPTER THREE: NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGY in Egypt Introduction Incentives for the Private Sector Energy Planning Model The Methodology of Data Processing The Current Situation at the Year 2009/ The Expected Situation of Electricity By Wind Energy Situation The Land Required For Wind Farms The Available Land for Wind Projects Wind Atlas for Egypt Wind Farm Area Calculator Repowering of wind turbines Solar Energy Situation Solar Atlas II

6 3.7.2 EM Power Program, Country visit Report CSP+D potential in Egypt SolarPACES The complete evaluation for the targeted plan CHAPTER FOUR: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION Renewable Energy Market and Industry Highlights Economic and Financial Evaluation for Wind Projects Investment costs Lifecycle Cost of Energy Operations and Maintenance Financing Schemes for Wind Park Projects in Egypt Grant Scheme Self-Finance/Grant Scheme Self-Finance Scheme The expected investment cost for wind projects The Expected Projects in the East and West Nile Banks Economic and Financial Evaluation for Concentrating Solar power Investment Costs Operation and maintenance costs Costs of providing finance for CSP plants Generating costs The expected investment cost of CSP in Egypt Parabolic Trough Modeling in Solar Advisor Model (SAM) Concentrating Solar Power Plant Model Economic and Financial Evaluation for Photovoltaic PV Levelized Energy Production Cost Cost Reduction Goals Cost of Turnkey PV in Germany drops, (the German experience) III

7 4.7.4 The Expected Investment Cost of PV in Egypt Tariff Requirements PV Power Plant SAM Model General Economic evaluation and Impacts General economic indicators General economic impacts CHAPTER FIVE: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS EVALUATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Introduction The Impact of Wind Energy on Climate Change Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Pollution How Much CO2 Can Wind Energy Save? Environmental Impacts of Wind farms Noise Problems Interference Appearance Land use Impact on wildlife Safety The Environmental Impacts of Wind farms in Egypt Land characteristics and use: Flora and Fauna (without avi-fauna): Avifauna: Water quality: Air quality: Noise levels: Environmental Effects of Solar Energy IV

8 Carbon Emissions Abundant Components Cadmium Ecological Concerns CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Introduction Conclusions on the Present Work Recommendations and Proposed Action to Speed RE In Egypt Fossil-Fuels Subsidy Access to Transmission, Grid Connection Promoting and Encouraging Solar Water Heating Systems Educate the awareness about the role of wind energy Research, development and demonstration support of local industry Garbage-To-Energy- Recycling instead of Burning Energy Production per Ton of Garbage REFERENCES V

9 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1: Egypt s Oil Production and Consumption , source EIA... 9 Figure 1-2: Egypt s NG Production and Consumption , source EIA Figure 1-3: fuel input and electricity generation in power plants in Egypt, in Mtoe (EEHC) Figure 1-4: Development of Hydro Generated Energy (GWh), source EEHC Figure 2-1 Share of Egypt s Total Energy Consumption, by Sector, Figure 2-2: Share of Egypt s Total Energy Consumption, by Fuel Type, Figure 2-3: Share of Egypt s Total Primary Energy Production, by Source, 2007, F 24 Figure 2-4: Historic and Future Population Trends in Egypt, Figure 2-5: Egypt s GDP Growth, Two Scenarios, , Figure 2-6: Egypt s Real Per Capita GDP, , Figure 2-7: Egypt s Economic Growth by Sector, , Figure 2-8: Egypt s Economic Growth by Sector, , Figure 2-9: Structure of the EEHC, source H. El Salmawy Figure 2-10: Power sector structure, source H. El Salmawy Figure 2-11: The proposed Electricity Market Structure Figure 3-1: Energy Planning Model Components Figure 3-2: current situation of electricity 2009/ Figure 3-3: the forecasting of total electricity generated up to Figure 3-4: Estimate Targeted share of renewable energy up to Figure 3-5 : Elevation map of Egypt showing the meteorological stations used for the Wind Atlas for Egypt Figure 3-6: Mean wind speeds and power densities at a height of 50 m over roughness class 1 (z0 = 0.03 m) for the 30 stations in Egypt Figure 3-7 Wind resource map of Egypt: mean wind speed at 50 m a.g.l. determined by mesoscale modeling (Wind Atlas for Egypt, 2006) VI

10 Figure 3-8: offshore wind resource map of Egypt: mean wind speed at 50 m a.g.l. determined by mesoscale modeling (Wind Atlas for Egypt, 2006) Figure 3-9: Solar Atlas of Egypt, source NREA annual report Figure 3-10: Egypt coastal strip in the Mediterranean Sea in red color Figure 3-11: Elevation profile of the Egypt coastal strip in the Mediterranean Figure 3-12: Egypt coastal strip in the Red sea in red color, Figure 3-13: Elevation profile of the Egypt coastal strip in the Red sea Figure 3-14: DNI results of the Egypt coastal strip in the Mediterranean Sea, Figure 3-15: Elevation profile of the Egypt coastal strip in the Red sea, Figure 3-16: Comparison between the planned targeted and the estimated planned projects GWh Figure 4-1: SAM Model Processing Figure 4-2: result of CSP SAM modeling Figure 4-3: current performance and price of different PV module technologies, Figure 5-1: Global Power Capacity and avoided CO2 emissions ( ) VII

11 LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: Generated Energy (GWh), source EEHC Table 1-2: Hydro Power Indicators, source EEHC Table 1-3: Fuel Saved Due to the Use of Hydro Power, source EEHC Table 1-4: Total Installed Capacity of Wind Energy, source Wind Energy Council. 17 Table 1-5: Egyptian Energy overview, source EIA Table 2-1: Egypt s IPPs, source Anton Eberhard and Katharine Gratwick Table 3-1: The weighted capacity factor Table 3-2: Estimated land for wind energy, scenario 1, source NREL web site Table 3-3: Estimated land for wind energy, scenario Table 3-4: Proposed lands suitable for solar projects, source Em Power, Table 3-5: expected electricity generated from Kom Ombo, Table 3-6: Targeted Strategy by Table 3-7: Real projects Table 3-8: shortage from the targeted and planned projects Table 4-1: the expected investment of wind farm, source, 200 MW FS Table 4-2: Operation and Maintenance, source, 200 MW FS Table 4-3: technical data of 200 MW wind in West of Nile Table 4-4: the expected cost of the project Table 4-5: the results of the project of west of Nile Table 4-6: expected investment cost for CSP projects, PFC Kom Ombo Table 4-7: investment cost of 100 MW PV power plants, source PFC of PV in Kom Ombo Table 4-8: results of SAM simulation for 20 MW PV Table 5-1: Global Power Capacity and avoided CO2 emissions ( ), source wind roadmap VIII

12 NOMENCLATURE MW Mega Watt GW Giga Watt KWh Kilo Watt Hour OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries MOEE Ministry Of Electricity and Energy MOP Ministry of Petroleum EEHC Egyptian Electricity Holding Company EETC Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company SCE Supreme Council of Energy REF Renewable Energy Fund EEL Energy Efficiency Labeling GCC Gulf Cooperation Council EGPC Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation Tcf Trillion Cubic Feet LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas AGP Arab Gas Pipeline CC Combined Cycle GHG Greenhouse Gas IX

13 Mtoe Million Ton Oil Equivalent IEA International Energy Agency GEF Global Environmental Facility PPA Power Purchase Agreement BAU Business-As-Usual GDP Gross Domestic Product HEG High Economic Growth BOOT Build-Own-Operate-Transfer EHV Extra High Voltage HV High Voltage TSO Transmission System Operators EEUCPRA Egyptian Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Authority IPPs Independent Power Producers NECC National Energy Control Center LCA life cycle assessment UTM Universal Transverse Mercator A.G.L Above Ground Level Acre area unit (1 acre = 4000 m2) X

14 ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my deep gratitude to my supervisors Prof. Dr. Ing. Jurgen Schmid, Prof. Dr. Eng. Mohamed Salah El Sobki, Dr. Mohamed El Khayat for their continuous help in my work and guidance to complete this thesis. I would also like to thank them for their valuable advices in the different contexts of this document. My heartfelt thanks are due to Prof. Dr. Adel Khalil for his great help and support during the time of this work. Many thanks go to Dr. John Severs for his help and support during the various stages of this thesis work. His insightful comments and notes were of great significance for this work. Many thanks to Eng. Ehab Ismaiel for his help, and providing me by all required data and advices throughout this work. His contributions were of great impact on this work. I also wish to thank my colleagues at the REMENA Program for their friendship, support and for creating an enjoyable working atmosphere throughout my working period, specially Mustafa Shaban and Mohamed Rany. Finally, I would like to express my gratefulness to my Family, my Wife and my daughter Mai, my sons Omar and Ziad for their continuous care, patience, tolerance, encouragement, and support. XI

15 ABSTRACT Securing energy demand for next generations is one of the most challenges aspects facing any sustained development plans, due to the growing electric energy demand and Egypt as a country of limited fossil fuel resources has to diversify its energy portfolio by utilization of its renewable energy resources, mainly wind due to its economic potential and solar as proved by Egypt's wind and solar atlases. In the year 2009/2010, the total installed capacity in Egypt was MW with electricity generation 139,000 GWh, of which 89 % was delivered by thermal plants and about 10% from Hydro power with total installed 2800 MW and electricity generated is about GWh and 1% from Wind energy with total installed 550 MW and electricity generated 1542 GWh. In the solar energy field, the first solar thermal power plant of 140 MW with a solar share of 20 MW using parabolic trough technology was started the initial work since the 1st of July with estimated total energy generated of 852GWh/year. Recently, Egypt has adopted an ambitious plan to cover 20% of the generated electricity by renewable energy by 2020, including a 12% contribution from wind energy, translating more than 7200 MW grid-connected wind farms. Such plan gives a room enough to the private investment to play the major role in realizing this goal. The plan includes also a 100 MW Solar thermal energy CSP with parabolic trough technology in Kom Ombo city, and also two PV plants in Hurgada and Kom Ombo with a total installed capacity 20 MW each. Due to the high investment cost of solar energy technologies, still limited in spread all over the world on the other hand wind energy has an economic potential and becomes a commercial technology but the future potential for solar energy due to the limited land for wind energy. Current study will evaluate the Egyptian strategy for renewable energy up to 2020 and find how much the planned projects from the Egyptian government will fulfill its target, the economic study and the expected investment cost of these projects, and the environmental impacts of the renewable energy. XII

16 1. CHAPTER ONE: ENERGY SITUATION IN EGYPT 1.1 Introduction Egypt is a Middle Income Country with strong ownership of its development strategy. The Government has established a good track record of economic reform. This has led to a friendlier investment climate, which in turn has yielded a strong private sector response. However, this economic growth has been accompanied by a growth in energy use, especially higher demand for electricity implying adding about MW/year. Securing energy demand on continuous bases is a vital element for sustained development plans and Egypt as a country of limited fossil fuel resources In this sense and in line with the general framework of energy policies in Egypt, the Supreme Council of Energy in Egypt announced the strategy for the electric power based on diversifying energy sources of production, rationalizing the use of energy and expanding use of renewable energy sources as a component of energy provision. The strategy, which was approved in February 2008, aims to: Contribution of renewable energies by 20% of the total electricity generation by the year The share from the grid-connected wind power is 12% of the total electricity generation, and that represents about 7200 MW total capacities. Also, other renewable energy applications, led by hydropower and solar energy, will have a significant contribution." The polices to foster increasing private sector participation consist of two phases; Competitive Bidding, which will apply for around 5 years, and Feed-in-Tariff approaches. Current study will focus on analyzing main challenges facing the renewable energy strategy of Egypt, such as: A) High penetration of wind projects with very large scale projects will be concentrated in 3 main regions. Such situation entails considering several issues 1

17 such as wind forecasting systems, wake effects of large farms, Energy security, as well as grid stability issues. B) Implementing about 600 MW yearly during the next 10 years in spite of implementing 550 Mw during the last 10 years. C) Recent financial crises could represent one of the main obstacles cause delay in achieving the strategy target. D) How to cover the gap between the production cost and the selling price. E) Are current planned projects able to fulfill the strategy targets? If not, what are the possible scenarios to reach 20% of electricity production from renewable resources by the year 2020? F) What is the Cost/Benefit Analysis of implementing such renewable energy projects? G) Environmental assessment for the implementing different scenarios. 2

18 1.2 Energy Energy plays a significant role in any nation s development, and securing energy is one of the most important challenges facing any development plans. We can understand Energy security more when take it literally. We need to be secure in our energy in terms of the source, i.e. where it comes from, the control of the consumption and distribution of that energy, and having alternatives in place to allow us to withstand highs and lows associated with any commodity. Securing energy resources and production to meet the national demand both on the short and long terms, along with adequate attention to environmental impacts concerns, are considered vital elements for sustainable development. To face all these challenges Egypt takes a different effective measures to increase the role of RE in the energy supply and use matrix. The very high potential of renewable energy supports this orientation from the energy sector, which are not completely exploited. Egypt is also still in the development phase of legislation supporting the use of RE. A proposed electricity law is currently under construction and development. It would include some legislation supporting RE in terms of obligations or commitments on both energy consumers and producers to assign a part of their production capacity and/or consumption to be from RE. In the same time there is a renewable energy fund has been established between the Ministry of Electricity and Energy MOEE and Ministry of Petroleum MOP, funded from the difference between the international and local price of fuel saved by using RE. This difference will be split equally between the two ministries. The share of MOEE will be directed to support RE. Another incentive tool is that the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) bears the cost of wind farms connection to the 220 kv transmission lines until and including 22 kv in addition to paying a tariff per kwh about 10% higher than that paid to conventional generation companies, finally the support of RE fund box which ratified from the Egyptian Cabinet, [1]. Fossil fuels (Oil and NG) considered the main energy source, Egypt considered an important non-opec energy producer. The large Commercial quantities of oil were 3

19 first found in 1908, and more petroleum was found in the late 1930s along the Gulf of Suez. Later, there is large oil fields were discovered in the regions (Sinai Peninsula, Gulf of Suez, Western Desert, and the Eastern Desert). The Abu Rudeis and Ra's Sudr oil fields in the Sinai, captured by Israel in 1967, were returned to Egyptian control in November 1975, and the remaining Sinai oil fields reverted to Egyptian control by the end of April 1982, [2]. In terms of electricity generation, natural gas considered the main fuel source and accounts for over 70 % of the total energy mix, the remainder being met mostly by hydroelectricity. Plans are underway to further expand electricity generation capacity by utilizing the country s vast wind and solar resources. 1.3 Institutions and Governance in the Energy Sector The Egyptian energy sector consists of a variety of institutions and organizations, some of these have direct influence on the governance while others more indirectly influence activities and decisions. Ministry of Electricity and Energy, and Ministry of Petroleum, are basically taken care of the fields of electricity and of petroleum and natural gas, and their connected authorities and organizations. In addition to the ministries, a Supreme Council of Energy has been established; more details for each of them and the responsibilities will be below The Ministry for Electricity and Energy (MOEE) The main objective of the Ministry is to provide the electricity for all consumers all over the country. In order to full fill that obligation, the ministry has to: Settle the general plane & energy generation, transmission and distribution using the high-tech and the latest scientific development and supervise the execution of such plan and follow-up the different activities concerning the electrical network. Suggest the electric energy prices for all different voltage levels and different usages. 4

20 Supervise the study and execution of essential electrical projects. Publish the statistics and data relating to electric energy production & consumption Supply the technical consultancies and services in the electric fields to Arab countries and all others. Ministry of electricity and energy has a lot of goals to be achieved includes: Optimize use of available energy sources and minimize environment pollution Provide electricity with minimum price and best quality Expand utilization of new and renewable energy resources Support electricity availability in towns and cities and complete electrifying the urban areas and low population communities. Interconnect the Egyptian Electrical network to African, west and east neighboring countries Boost local and domestic contribution to design, implementation and manufacturing of electrical equipment s. Develop peaceful use of nuclear power. Restructure electricity sector to optimize investments and improve electrical services. Utilize modern and sophisticated technical systems in electricity sector's operation and activities. Develop the expertise and skills of engineers and technicians working in the electricity sector. Export Egyptian expertise in design, manufacture, negotiation, construction and operation of electrical projects. Use soft loans as much as possible, [3]. Ministry of Electricity and Energy consists of Institutions and Authorities includes: Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) which considered the main player and 5

21 consists of generation, transmission and distribution companies, Rural Electrification Authority (REA) which had been canceled, New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) the responsible entity for Renewable energy, The Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency, Hydropower Project Authority, Nuclear Power Plants Authority, Atomic Energy Authority, Nuclear Materials Authority The Ministry of Petroleum (MOP) The main strategy of Ministry of Petroleum is supporting oil and gas reserves and increasing their production, meeting the local demand of oil, gas and petrochemicals, supporting the exports and increasing Egypt's income from foreign currency and the state's treasury. In 2000, the ministry of petroleum adopted an integrated strategy, the most important mechanism to implement it is to develop and amend the structure of the Egyptian petroleum sector through separating the activities of the natural gas and petrochemicals from the activities of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, and establishing a strong entity for each of them, in addition to focusing the attention on Upper Egypt through establishing an independent entity. After adding the activities of the mineral resources to the duties of the ministry of petroleum and establishing the Mineral Resources Authority on the 14th of October 2004, the petroleum sector now consists of five strong entities cooperating and integrating to make the best use of petroleum and mineral resources wealth. They are: The Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, The Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company, The Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company, Ganoub El-Wadi Holding Company and The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority, [4] Supreme Council of Energy (SCE) The Supreme Council of Energy (SCE) considered as the highest policy making authority in the energy sector in Egypt, it was established in 1979 by the Prime Minister's decree, No. 1093/1979. The decree defines SCE responsibility as short and 6

22 long-term energy planning reporting directly to president. Membership of the council includes ministers of petroleum, electricity, industry, water supply, transportation and housing; however, the council undertakes very limited activities and has thus presently no importance for the decisions in the energy sector. 1.4 Energy Policy The energy policy is mainly prepared by The SCE. The main structure of it consists of the ministers of electricity and petroleum, with consultations in the parliamentary committee for industry and energy. Egypt's policy aims to increase the use of renewables with in part by environmental considerations, and in part by an interest in diversification of energy supply. Moreover, in Sept. 2006, the direction for using nuclear technology to generate electricity and increase dependence on RE has been announced by the ruling National Development Party, but still up to now the real construction of the power plan postponed due to more safety. The energy policy in Egypt focuses on the following; - Enhancement of natural gas utilization, - Adjustment of energy price and removal of subsidies, - Energy conservation and efficient energy use, - Promotion of renewable energy utilization. There was an agreement in June, 2004 between the Ministry of Petroleum and the Ministry of Electricity and Energy had been signed and established the Renewable Energy Fund, REF. The REF aims to support the renewable energy resources by around 0.3 Cent US$/kWh, this amount represent the difference between the prices of selling N.G. inside and outside Egypt. The methodology behind REF is that, the production of RE saves the consumption of natural gas in domestic thermal power plants and also it can be exported, incentives for installing wind farms include assignation free of charge lands, and exempting imported equipment from the Tax Tariff. For solar heating systems there is a domestic standard code, meanwhile for wind 7

23 turbines and PV systems international codes; e.g. DIN, Germanschier Loyed, and IEC are applied, [5]. The strategy for the electricity generation based on diversifying energy sources of production, rationalizing the use of energy and expanding use of renewable energy sources as a component of energy provision. The strategy, which was approved in February 2008, aims to: Contribution of renewable energies by 20% of the total electricity generation by the year The share from the grid-connected wind power is 12% of the total electricity generation, i.e., reaching more than 7200 MW gridconnected wind farms while the remaining will be from mainly hydro 4% and solar energies 4%. 1.5 Energy Situation in Egypt Oil Crude oil is located in the Gulf of Suez, Sinai and western desert and recently exploration activities have extended to southern Egypt and the east of Oweiynat. Egypt s proven oil reserves stand at 4.4 billion barrels, an increase from 2010 reserve estimates of 3.7 billion barrels, according to the Oil and Gas Journal s January 2011 estimation. The total oil production in Egypt averaged 660,000 (bbl/d), of which approximately 540,000 bbl/d was crude oil, in Crude oil production continues its decline, despite the new discoveries and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques at mature fields. At the same time, natural gas still increase in production due to new fields production liquids and lease condensates which have offset some of the declines in total oil liquids production. The total estimation of Oil consumption is about 710,000 bbl /d, which slightly higher than production and makes gap. To cover the gap with the increase of domestic demand growth, oil imports are expected to continue with some refined product exports in the short-term. 8

24 The government direction is to gradually lifting subsidized prices and targeting subsidizes more effectively to reduce the demand growth of oil, despite this is a politically and socially very sensitive issue that will be difficult to fully implement, [6]. Figure 1-1: Egypt s Oil Production and Consumption , source EIA Exploration and Production There are mainly five areas for the production of the Egyptian oil: the first and more effective is the Gulf of Suez and the Nile Delta but also the Western Desert, the Eastern Desert, and the Mediterranean Sea. Most of the fields are mature, relatively small that are connected to larger regional production systems. The Overall production of the old fields especially the Gulf of Suez is in decline. However, these declines have been compensated by small yet commercially viable discoveries in all producing areas, [6]. 9

25 Exports Egypt registered exports of crude oil about 145,000 bbl/d in 2010, although it is a net oil importer. These exports went to India (50,000 bbl/d) as the first level, followed by Italy (29,000 bbl/d), and the United States (16,000 bbl/d). The remainder of Egypt s crude oil exports went to other European countries and Asia, [6] Natural Gas The production of natural gas in Egypt is expanding rapidly with production quadrupling between 1998 and The natural gas reserves stand at 77 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), an increase from 2010 estimates of 58.5 Tcf and the third highest in Africa, according to the Oil and Gas Journal In 2009, Egypt produced roughly 2.3 Tcf and consumed 1.6 Tcf. Egypt will continue to be one of the most an important supplier of natural gas to Europe and the Mediterranean region. Figure 1-2: Egypt s NG Production and Consumption , source EIA 10

26 In 2009 the electricity sector accounted for the largest share of natural gas consumption (54 %) using mainly in electricity generation, followed by industrial sector (29 %) according to Cedigaz. While still using natural gas in transportation sector through the use and development of compressed natural gas vehicles and fueling stations a relatively small share. For residential consumption and business use, the government is encouraging the use of natural gas as a substitute for petroleum and coal. The World Bank approved loans for the Natural Gas Connections Project, in January 2008 which solve the problem of using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to natural gas through investment in new connections and to further expand natural gas use in densely populated, low income areas, [6] Exploration and Production In the Egyptian natural gas sector exploration and production activities continue its growing. While there have been marked decreases in the production of natural gas associated with oil extraction, new finds of non-associated gas fields combined with growing domestic demand and export capacity, are increasing interest. Most industry analysts place Egypt s natural gas production on an upward trend in the short- and medium-term despite the existing limitations to the sector s growth. To promote exploration in the more expensive deep-water offshore, the Egyptian government revised pricing policies by agreeing to pay more for natural gas produced in these areas, assuring continued international interest in developing these potential resources. Over 80 % of Egypt s natural gas reserves and 70 % of production is in the Mediterranean and Nile Delta but exploration and production continue in all major hydrocarbon rich areas including the Western Desert. Natural gas is locally distributed by Egypt Gas, City Gas, Natgas and Nile Valley Gas Company. It is planned to supply natural gas to 2.5 million housing units by the end of the 4th five years plan in the year It is expected that the demand on natural gas will increase to 28, 36 and 52 billion m3 in 2002, 2007 and 2017, respectively, [6]. 11

27 Exports The exporting of natural gas began in the mid-2000s after the completion of the Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP) in 2004 and the startup of the first three LNG trains at Damietta in Egypt exported about 650 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas in 2009, around 70 % of which was exported in the form of LNG and the remaining 30 percent via pipelines, [6]. 1.6 Electricity situation in Egypt The power generation in Egypt is characterized by a prevalence of natural gas as the main fuel, the absence of coal, as well as rather low generation losses (Fig 1-4) due to significant hydro-power and a substantial capacity of efficient combined cycle (CC) natural gas plants. This structure results in a rather low grid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions factor of approximately 0.5 kg CO2/kWh. The total losses due to on-site consumption and the transmission and distribution system account for approximately 15% of gross production. The plan will change when the ambitious plan of electricity generation expanded and almost triple 2007 capacity by 2022, the fuel mix will become more unbalanced in the power sector. According to this plan, most new capacity would be natural gas combined cycle and steam turbine plants, the latter also being capable of using heavy fuel oil, [7]. 12

28 Figure 1-3: fuel input and electricity generation in power plants in Egypt, in Mtoe (EEHC). The Egyptian electrification rate in 2008 was approximately 99.4 %, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA); this rate is among the highest in Africa with a 100 % urban access to electricity and 99.1 in rural areas. The total installed capacity of electricity reached to be about 24.7 GW with total generated electricity about GWh at the year 2009/ 2010, 21.4 GW of which was conventional thermal generation capacity, 2800 MW hydro power with generated electricity GWh and 550 MW of wind energy with total generated electricity 1540 GWh. Current peak demand is estimated to be 22.7 (GW). The rising demand and ageing infrastructure have led to intermittent blackouts. The summer of 2010 highlighted these problems, as the country experienced rolling nationwide blackouts. The Egyptian government planning to invest over $100 in the power sector over the next decades to cover the increase of electricity consumption, and at the same time seeking financing from external sources. Egypt encourage the privet sector to establish more power plants and the other international organizations, and renewable energy 13

29 funds such as the World Bank s Clean Technology Fund have all provided investment in the sector. Under existing plans, Egypt hopes to produce 20 % of its electricity from renewable energy by 2020 while also developing a nuclear power industry, (EIA Feb. 2011) Conventional Thermal The thermal power plant is the main player in the electricity generated in Egypt, in 2010, conventional thermal energy sources accounted for GWh of electricity generation, about 89% of the total. Almost natural gas is the main fuel used to produce this electricity. Existing natural gas subsidies combined with plans to expand gas-fired generation capacity indicate that the fuel will continue to play an important role in Egypt s electricity mix Hydropower Hydro power is considered one of the cheapest and cleanest sources of power generation. In Egypt, the power generation from hydro resources started in 1960, with the construction of Aswan Dam to control the Nile water discharge for irrigation. In 1967 the 2.1 GW High Dam hydro power plants was commissioned, followed by the commissioning of Aswan 2 power plant in 1985 and in cooperation with the Ministry of Water Resources and Public Works; Isna hydropower plant was commissioned in 1993 and Naga-Hamadi in year Egypt generated around 14 Bkwh from hydroelectric resources, the share of hydro generation represents about 9.2% from total generation in 2009/2010, almost all of which came from the Aswan High Dam and the Aswan Reservoir Dams, (EEHC annual report). 14

30 Table 1-1: Generated Energy (GWh), source EEHC Figure 1-4: Development of Hydro Generated Energy (GWh), source EEHC It s clear from the above figure (1-5) the decrease of the generated electricity from the hydropower from GWh at the year 2007/2008 to GWh at the year 2009/2010 due to the decrease of the efficiency of the turbines. 15

31 Table 1-2: Hydro Power Indicators, source EEHC Table 1-3: Fuel Saved Due to the Use of Hydro Power, source EEHC the fuel saved by using hydropower energy is estimated to about 2773 Ktoe in the year 2009/2010 which equvelent to about 613 Million EGP. 16

32 1.6.3 Wind The renewable energy in Egypt has gained momentum over the last two decades, thanks to the successful international cooperation and the support of RE from the government. The New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) was established in 1986 as the national focal point to develop and introduce renewable energy technologies to Egypt on a commercial scale together with implementation of related energy conservation programs and investigate technology options through studies and demonstration projects. Another aim of NREA is to introduce mature technologies into the Egyptian market and to support the activities of the domestic industry. For the wind energy technology in Egypt which considered the largest in Africa, since the 1980s, a series of large-scale grid connected wind energy projects were installed, and 120 MW were added in 2010, taking the total installed wind capacity to 550 MW, [8]. Year MW 1999/ 2000/ 2001/ 2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2008/ Table 1-4: Total Installed Capacity of Wind Energy, source Wind Energy Council Operating and planned wind farms in Egypt Zafarana wind farm Zafarana wind farm by the Red Sea coast considered the largest farm in Africa; it has been constructed in stages since 2001, the international cooperation with Germany, Denmark and Spain shared in financing these farms through a grants. Lastly in 2010, 120 MW of wind capacity were added to Zafarana in cooperation with the Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA), taking the total installed capacity to 545 MW. The total generated electricity from the wind farm is about 1,147 GWh. The 17

33 region of the Gulf of El Zayt has an excellent wind regime, there are currently about 1,120 MW at various stages of development in cooperation with Germany, the European Investment Bank (EIB), Japan and Spain. These include: 200 MW in cooperation with KFW, EU and the EIB. After a tender in 2010, the contractor is expected to be selected at the beginning of 2011 and the project is scheduled to start operations by the end of MW in cooperation with Japan and 120 MW in cooperation with Spain are in the pipeline. Further projects in preparation include: 180 MW in cooperation with Spain; 200 MW in cooperation with Abu Dhabi s MASDAR programme; and 200 MW in cooperation with Germany, the EU and the EIB, [8]. 1. Western Bank of the Nile 200 MW installed capacity are planned on the Western Bank of the Nile in cooperation with Japan. 2. Gulf of El Zayt The Gulf of El Zayt region had a good potential of wind with a high speed varies between 7-10 m/s, the Egyptian government, in cooperation with the World Bank in May 2009, published an international tender for a wind farm at the Gulf of El Zayt, and inviting private sector from inside Egypt and international developers to submit their prequalification documents for the first competitive bid to plan build and operate a 250 MW wind farm. The project will benefit from the conditions outlined above. Following the tender, 34 offers were received and a short list of ten qualified developers was announced in November A second stage of the tender calling for final bids will be issued mid-2011 and the project is scheduled to start operations by 2014, (World Wind Energy Council). 18

34 3. Gulf of Suez The Egyptian government plans to install about 2,000 MW of wind power in the Gulf of Suez region, through four stages. A first tender was published in January 2010 for two projects of 250 MW each, again on a build, own and operate basis and a 20 year PPA. A second tender for the same amount of wind power two projects of 250 MW each - is expected for July 2011, (World Wind Energy Council) Solar Egypt has an excellent potential of solar energy which will be suitable for a lot of solar technologies projects even Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) or Photo Voltaic (PV), the construction of the first solar thermal power plant at Kuraymat City with total installed capacity of 140MW and solar share of 20MW, using parabolic trough technology integrated with combined cycle power plant using natural gas as a fuel. Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and the Japan Bank for International Development will finance this power plant. The initial operation of this power plant started at the 1st of July 2011 with estimated total energy generated of 852GWh/year Nuclear Egypt is also working on developing nuclear power as an energy source. It has a 22-MW nuclear research reactor at Inshas in the Nile Delta which began operation in The Ministry of Electricity and Energy in 2010 approved a 1,200 MW power station at al-dab a which is open to international participation and expected to become operational by 2019 as the country s first nuclear power plant. Bidding for the development of this plant was supposed to have started in early Three additional plants are planned by 2025, (Source EIA 2011). 19

35 1.6.6 International Connections Egypt has established an electric transmission grid with other countries in the region. The five-country interconnection of Egypt's system with those of Jordan, Syria, and Turkey was completed by 2002, and Egypt also activated a link to Libya's electric grid in December Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Power Grid The GCC Power Grid project plans to link Egypt to the GCC through Saudi Arabia. The link is expected to be complete between 2013 and 2015 and will allow the sharing of 3GW of electricity between the two countries. This project will indirectly expand each country s electricity capacity by pulling from each other s supplies at different peak hours. Longer-term plans call for broader interconnections that would include North Africa, the Middle East and Europe, (Source EIA). 20

36 As conclusion for the energy situation in Egypt, production and consumption and the reserve of fossil fuels in this table: Proven Oil Reserves (January 1, 2011) 4.4 billion barrels (Oil & Gas Journal) Oil Production (2010) 660 thousand barrels per day Oil Consumption (2010) 710 thousand barrels per day Refining Capacity (2009) 975,000 bbl/d (OGJ and APS Review) Proven Natural Gas Reserves (January 1, 2011) Natural Gas Production (2009) 77.2 trillion cubic feet (Oil & Gas Journal) 2.21 trillion cubic feet Natural Gas Consumption (2009) 1.57 trillion cubic feet Recoverable Coal Reserves (2009) Coal Production (2009) 23.1 million short tons (World Energy Council) 0.03 million short tons Coal Consumption (2009) 1.39 million short tons Electricity Installed Capacity (2008) 23.4 gigawatts Electricity Generation (2008) 124 billion kilowatt hours Electricity Consumption (2008) 109 billion kilowatt hours Total Energy Consumption (2008) 3.2 quadrillion Btus Total Per Capita Energy Consumption (2008) Energy Intensity (2008) 41.0 million Btus 7,681 Btu per $2005-PPP** Table 1-5: Egyptian Energy overview, source EIA 21

37 2 CHAPTER TOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN EGYPT Egypt has witnessed growth in energy demand attributed to demographic trends, increased industrial production as well as rising penetration of consumer products such as electric and electronic home devices. In 2008, Egypt has reached a peak demand of 21,500 MW, 23,000 at 2009 and it is expected to reach 54,200 MW by the year Moving to the installed electric capacity, it reached around 24,726 MW in 2010, compared to 23,502 MW in 2009 with variance 5.2%, and to be 20,593 MW in 2005, [9].The electricity demand increased by 6.7% between 2007 and 2008, and expected to increases with around 7% annum until 2014 as a result of increasing the electricity demand in the industry, agriculture and tourism largely as a result of rising demand from the residential and commercial sectors, [10]. The key technological option for fostering this high increase in demand is the direction of renewable energy and energy efficiency. Rather than the burning of fossil fuels energy reserves considered a spurious industrial competition that has no future, especially with a country like Egypt gas a limited resources, by applying these programs it could build on its engineering and industrial base and become a competitive player and regional leader in the new energy economy of the 21st century. 2.1 Energy Demand Scenarios for Egypt Energy Consumption The indications of energy balance in Egypt for the year 2007 referees that the industrial sector energy consumption was the largest share sector with about (34.2 %), followed by transportation (24.2 %), residential (18.8 %), and agriculture and mining (4.7 %) together accounting for 81.9 % of total consumption. On the other hand the energy consumption by the fuel type, oil products account for (54.1 %), followed by natural gas (20.6 %), and electricity (18.3 %) together comprising 93 % of total demand. The 22

38 remainder is non-energy use. Energy transformation for the internal market occurs mainly via oil-refining activities, natural gas treatment, and power generation (hydro and thermal). Natural gas (56.2 %) and oil (38.2 %) account for the bulk of primary energy supply, representing 94.4 % of the total. The rest is mainly electricity, generated with hydropower (3.9 %, according to IEA methodology) and other primary sources (1.7 %), [11]. Figure 2-1 Share of Egypt s Total Energy Consumption, by Sector, 2007, source Francisco Figueroa de la Vega, 23

39 Figure 2-2: Share of Egypt s Total Energy Consumption, by Fuel Type, 2007, source Francisco Figueroa de la Vega Figure 2-3: Share of Egypt s Total Primary Energy Production, by Source, 2007, Francisco Figueroa de la Vega 24

40 2.1.2 Drivers of Energy Demand There are several major factors contributing to the rapid growth in Egypt s energy demand, these factors including population growth, economic growth, and increased motorization. We have to take these in our consideration to understand the present and future dynamics of Egypt s energy economy Population Egypt is considered to be one of the populous countries in Africa and the Arabic Region; it is estimated to be around 82,079,636 million people with growth rate 1.96% (2011est.)[12], but the growth rate is expected to slow in the future, at a rate of 1.56 % for 2030 as shown in fig (2-3). Figure 2-4: Historic and Future Population Trends in Egypt, , source Francisco Figueroa de la Vega, 25

41 Economic Development Egypt s GDP witnessed a real increase of 5.0 % annually during , which was similar to the average growth rate of 5.2 % annually during , and reached to be 5.3% in The evaluation of the real per capita growth has been positive throughout the last two decades. According to the study of Francisco Figueroa de la Vega, JCEE and GTZ, there are two future economic growth scenarios: The first scenario is called business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for GDP in , which depends on assumption of a constant increase of 3.1 % year, or roughly half the per capita GDP growth of the past. This scenario also assumes that Egypt will pull out of the current economic crisis relatively slowly. The second scenario is called high economic growth (HEG) scenario, which depends on assumes that the economy continues to grow dynamically, at an average annual rate of 4.5 %, on the basis that Egypt will implement important investments in economic and social infrastructure that stimulate the internal market for goods and services and for the domestic labor force. There is no significant change in the economic growth by sector up to 2030; only a modest increase in agriculture and mining, there will be a higher growth in industry and slight reduction in commerce and construction growth. Nevertheless, there will be an increase in economic activity in all sectors in terms of real GDP growth, [11]. 26

42 Figure 2-5: Egypt s GDP Growth, Two Scenarios, , Source: Francisco Figueroa de la Vega Figure 2-6: Egypt s Real Per Capita GDP, , source: Francisco Figueroa de la Vega, 27

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