Science, Sustainability and Global Responsibility Desy Hamburg Germany

Transcription

1 Symposium Solar Energy for Science Science, Sustainability and Global Responsibility Desy Hamburg Germany May 19, 2011 Prof. Amin Mobarak, Cairo University Former Head of Energy & industry Committee Egyptian Parliament 1

2 Sustainable Development: 66 The World Commission on Environment and Development WCED (Brundtland Commission) has defined sustainable development as development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs Sustainable Development has three dimensions:

3 EGP Thousand Per Capita Income * Per Capita Income in Q1 2009/2010 was16.3 EGP Thousand Sources: MED, CBE

4 Source: IMF & EIU

5 Sectors Contribution in GDP growth in 2009/2010 Financal Services & Insurance, 8.4 Real Estate activities, 2.3 Others, 11.8 Manufacturing, 15.9 Extractive industry, 2.4 Agriculture, 9.0 Wholesale & Retal, 12.5 C.I.T, 10.2 Tourism, 9.3 Construction, 12.5 Transportation, 5.7 Source: MED

6 EGP Billion Percent Investment & Economic Growth * Private Investment Real Economic Growth * Private Investment in Q1 2009/2010 was 27.3 Sources: MED, CBE

7 Percent Unemployment Rate Sources: MED, CBE

8 The Earth Climate Earth s axis oscillates every 41,000 years between 21.5 and 24.5 degrees. This causes changes in earth s orbit and is therefore the reason for a glaciation period that takes place every approximately 100,000 years.

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10 Effect of CO 2 an climate change

11 CO 2 emissions of fossil fuels (1900 to 2100)

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13 Emission factors of fossil fuels [kg CO 2 /kwh]

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15 Biomass Renewable Energy Resource Mapping Wind Energy Geothermal Energy Hydropower Solar Energy 3

16 Countries analysed within the MED-CSP Study and total EU-MENA Region Southern Europe Western Asia Arabian Peninsula North Africa 4

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18 Solar Energy Resource Assessment Egypt lies the sun belt area. In 1991, Solar Atlas for Egypt was issued, concluding that: 1. Direct Normal Irradiation ranges between 2000 KWh/m 2 /y at the North and 3200 KWh/m 2 /y at the South. 2. The sun shine duration ranges between 9-11 h/day from North to South, with very few cloudy days. 3. Economic Potential Twh/Y 6

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20 Wind Energy Resources Assessment Egypt enjoys excellent wind regime, particularly in the Suez Gulf where the wind speed reaches 10.8 m/sec. The wind atlas for the Suez Gulf Coast shows that the region can host about MW of wind farms. Economic Potential 90 Twh/Y 9

21 Concentrated Solar Power in Egypt A CSP experimental plant was built in Maadi -Cairo in 1913 by the American Inventor Frank Shuman. Five parabolic troughs (each 204 ft long and 13 ft wide), Steam was then produced and used to pump 6000 GPM of water. Oil was later discovered then, He wrote: One thing I am sure of ; the human race should eventually either utilize solar energy directly or go back to precivilization. Two pilot plants for industrial process heating ( Pharma -Textile..) Kuraymat plant will produce 140 MW using solar assisted combined cycle power plant (incremental cost paid by GEF). In constructions stage. Fuel Gas Turbine Solar Field (Parabolic Concentrators) Exhaust HTF Heater Solar Boiler W.H. Boiler Preheater High Pressure Superheater High Pressure Boiler Intermediate Pressure Boiler Intermediate Pressure Superheater Deaerator Steam Turbine Condenser Expansion Vessel Integrated Solar Combined Cycle System (I.S.C.C.S) Natural Gas for "Parabolic Trough Technology Option" Supplementary Firing 11

22 Technology Portfolio:Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Technologies parabolic trough (PSA) linear Fresnel (Solarmundo) 12 solar tower (SNL) parabolic dish (SBP)

23 Average wind speed (M/S) Region Ras Sadr Abu Aldurg Zafarana Ras Gharb El Ttour El Zeit Gulf Hurghuda Alexandria Port Said Sidi Barani Kharga Shark El- Ounat Ras El Hekma Kossir Average wind speed M/S

24 Positioning and Economics of R.E 20

25 POSITIONING OF RE TECHNOLOGIES ( factors affecting positioning) 1. Average annual growth rate & size 2. Value Added for industry 3. Competition Strength 4. Technology requirements 5. Technology perspective future 6. Technology Maturity 7. Environmental impacts 8. Technology Provisions 9. Implementation Satisfaction 21

26 Positioning of Renewable Market Attractiveness Energy Technologies in Egypt 5.00 Low Medium High H 3.00 M L Technology Positioning Wind CSP PV Biomass SWH 22

27 Local Manufacturing of R.E. Components 50

28 Potential of Egyptian Industry for RE Local Manufacturing A) Local manufacturing B) Research and Development needed C) Technology Transfer/Joint Ventures/Import 51

29 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) a) Parabolic Trough Component A B Reflector material and glass Vacuum and absorber tube Rotary Joints Step Motor Steel structure Sun tracking system Control system Piping Auxiliaries Trough cleaning system Operation and maintenance C 52

30 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) b) Fresnel Collector (Flat mirrors) Component A B C Flat mirrors and surface quality Step Motor Steel structure Sun tracking system Control system Piping Auxiliaries Cleaning system Operation and maintenance 54

31 Photovoltaic Systems Component Solar Cells Modules Assembly System Integrators A B C 56

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33 Wind Energy Systems Component A B C Tower Blade Yawing system Gear-box Generator Control systems Cables Transformers Auxiliaries Operation and maintenance 57

34 Potential Share of Local Manufacturing Technology Reactive Policy Pro-active Policy Wind energy Solar water heaters Photovoltaic systems 40% 70% 20% 60% 95% 30% Biomass Concentrated solar power 50% 30% 95% 50% 59

35 Strategy for Manufacturing Renewable Energy Equipment (Objective: 23 % RE Inst. Power share by 2022) Component 1 Financial Instruments Component 2 Research, Development and Innovation Program Component 3 Legislations for Feed in Law and Feed in Tariff Component 4 Market Enhancement and Infra- Str Development Component 5 Information Service, Awareness and Capacity Building Strong Sustainable National Industrial Program for Local Market and Export of RE Equipment and components 62

36 Innovation R&D program 64 Fostering Innovation Culture Establishing A Framework Conductive To Innovation Gearing Research To Innovation Establishing a center of excellence for RET National research plan including solutions to problems facing the five selected RETs

37 Financial Instruments Soft Loans Commercial loans Revenue bonds Ownership certificate Developing RE Projects as CDM-Projects RE fund 65

38 Tailored Legislation Objective: The creation of a legal, institutional and incentive framework to stimulate and support large scale annual investments in RE in fulfillment of Government policy objectives for the energy sector: Scope: Feed-in Law and Feed in Tariff in order to secure the RET market Liberation of fuel prices Removal/reduction of taxes and duties RE Incentives 66

39 Information Service, Awareness and Capacity Building Program 67 Awareness and promotion programs such as: demonstrations of systems brochures training courses Workshops, seminars and presentations for targeted users School/University educational materials

40 Gross Electricity Consumption TWh/a Historical Data First Slowdown: Efficiency Gains & Liberalisation Scenario Closing the Gap / High Efficiency Second Slowdown: Demand Stabilisation Social Sustainability Challenge: Year Growing Electricity Demand in MENA Turkey Spain Portugal Malta Italy Greece Tunisia Morocco Libya Egypt Algeria Yemen UAE Syria Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Lebanon Kuwait Jordan Israel Iraq Iran Cyprus Bahrain 29

41 Power [GW] Power [GW] Power [GW] Power [GW] 14 Power Generation on the Peak Load Day in Egypt Peak Load Day in Egypt Scenario CG/HE Peak Load Day in Egypt Scenario CG/HE fuel csp geo hydro bio pv wind fuel csp geo hydro bio pv wind Hour [h] Hour [h] Peak Load Day in Egypt Scenario CG/HE Peak Load Day in Egypt Scenario CG/HE fuel csp geo hydro bio pv wind fuel csp geo hydro bio pv wind Hour [h] Hour [h] 41

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43 Concept of a EUMENA interconnected electricity grid based on HVDC power transmission (DESERTEC)

44 Thank You 72