SHOPPING2020. Abraham Lincoln 'The best way to predict your future is to create it'. Amstelveen, 4 th of March Shopping 2020.

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1 SHOPPING2020 Abraham Lincoln 'The best way to predict your future is to create it'. Amstelveen, 4 th of March 2014 Source: istock Shopping 2020

2 Table of Content What is Shopping2020? Key Findings Shopping2020 Action Plan Participation Possibilities Shopping

3 About the Shopping 2020 research program How do consumers shop in 2020? Shopping 2020 is a research program launched in 2013 by 16 industry organizations in order to answer the following question: How do consumers shop online in 2020 and which actions need to be undertaken on an national, sector and company level upon that Dutch B2C selling companies can act on this successfully, nationally, within Europe and globally. The motive for this research program is that the current retail, finance and travel landscape is changing rapidly and despite the current economic crisis, companies have to reposition themselves in order to survive beyond 2020: Changing consumer behavior (from single- to omni-channel); Disintermediation of the value chain (producers sell direct); Rise of new media (Google glasses, voice/virtual recognition) Product digitalization (gaming, 3D printing); Internationalization and global hyper competition (Amazon, Wallmart); etcetera Many of the developments are universal and reach across multiple Industries and sectors. Source: _van_tas Shopping

4 Shopping2020 was formally launched on the 13th of June 2013 The end results of the research program are presented mid March 2014 Desk research (1 mar. 1 jun.) Expert Trend Analyse (13 jun. 15 dec.) Wisdom of the Crowds (15 oct. 25 nov.) Action plans (15 oct. 15 dec.) Synthese (15 dec. 15 mar.) Macro Trends Micro Trends Meso Trends The research study and experts were determined and the kick off prepared 19 expert groups were defined to identify and substantiate key trends 444 experts and consumers were interviewed in two separate studies Based on the weighted trends the expert groups determined the key actions The synthesis lists the most important findings and defines an overall action program Shopping

5 19 expert groups were defined to create a vision on shopping in 2020 In each expert group experts from the scientific, political and business community are participating Future Trends Shopper Behavior Cross border (e)commerce Technological Future Touchpoints Ecology Political & Legal Customer Journey Key Themes Orientation Selection Shopping2020 Vision Business Models Omnichannel Organization Transaction Delivery Action Plan Shopping2020 Security & Fraud The New Shopping Street Customer Care Customer Data Value Management Travel Action plan Retail Action plan Smarter shopping Supply Chain Finance Action plan Action plan Online Entrepreneurship All 19 expert groups created their own report on which basis a synthesis was written. Shopping

6 The Shopping2020 has been initiated by 16 industry associations And is supported by experts from the business, science and political community Board of Recommendation Ed Nijpels (chairman) Bernard Wientjes (VNO-NCW) Arie van Bellen (Directeur ECP) Martijn van Dam (kamerlid PvdA) Jan Kees de Jager (vml. Min. Fin.) Cor Molenaar (Erasmus Universiteit) Kitty Koelemeijer (Universiteit Nyenrode) Walther Ploos van Amstel (VU) Erik Fledderus (Directeur TNO) Heleen van Oord (Directeur DQ&A) Giovanni Colauto (CEO Bijenkorf) Harry Bruijniks (CEO Euretco) Ronald van Zetten (CEO Hema) Joost Romeijn (CEO Sundio Group) Paul Nijhof (vml. CEO Wehkamp) Annemarie van Gaal (CEO van Gaal) Herna Verhagen (CEO PostNL) Nick Jue (CEO ING NL) Michiel Buitelaar (COO Sanoma Media) Danny van der Eijk (Chairman Achmea) Harry van Dorenmalen (CEO IBM Europe) Program Board Support Team Program mgt: Jorij Abraham Mar/Com: Inge Demoed Research: Eveline Poerink Events: Marin Wiellersen Travel Retail Finance Future Trends Dymfke Kuijpers Expert group Shopper Behaviour Expert group Cross Border (e)commerce Expert group Technological Expert Group Future Touchpoints Expert Group Ecological Expert Group Political & Legal Key Themes Axel Groothuis Expert Group Online Entrepreneurship Expert Group Business models Expert Group Security & Fraud Expert Group Omnichannel Organization Expert Group The New Shopping Street Expert Group Supply Chain Smarter Shoppi ng Customer Journey Arjen Bonsing Expert Group Orientation Expert Group Selection Expert Group Transaction Expert Group Delivery Expert Group Customer Care Expert Group Customer data value mgt. Founding Partners: Knowledge partners: Science partners: Netwerk partners: Media partners: Shopping

7 In total more than 460 experts have worked for half a year on Shopping2020 Shopping

8 Some intermediate results of Shopping Vistors at ShoppingTomorrow Research study among consumers subscribers to Shopping2020 bi-weekly newsletter followers 25+ external presentations Supported by 16 industry associations 200+ press publications 150+ companies participating visitors at ShoppingToday 460 experts involved 150+ expertgroup meetings visitors at Shopping Together 20+ company visits 60+ planned incompany Master Classes reports downloaded at Shopping2020.nl Unique visitors p/w at Shopping2020.nl Shopping

9 Table of Content What is Shopping2020? Key Findings Shopping2020 Action Plan Participation Possibilities Shopping

10 THE MARKET The Dutch consumer expects to by 52% online in % expects to not use the offline channel at all anymore Online purchases 1 Percentage xx Expenditures in billions Which products/services will for sure no longer be bought via physical retail? % respondents (n=11913) expert opinion consumenten expectation Flight tickets & hotels 41 Event tickets 40 nsurances 37 Travel packages 36 Telecom 31 Media & entertainment 24 Consumer electronics 23 Toys 20 Book 20 Fashion: shoes & lifestyle 17 Daily groceries 17 Home & garden 15 Sport articles 14 Fashion: clothing 12 Ø 25 Services Goods 1 GfK definieert de volgende definitie voor online aankopen: aankopen via smartphone, tablet, desktop, laptop, instore devices, overige digitale devices (watch, glasses, ) en online aankoop afhalen op pick up point Bron: GfK Consumentenonderzoek, November 2013 onder Consumenten Shopping

11 THE CONSUMER The C2C market is already bigger than the B2C market The growth of the share economy is expected to be huge Consumer-toconsumer (c2c) turnover is growing 28 times faster than retail Total retail turnover in the Netherlands Billion % p.a Turnover Marktplaats.nl 1 Billion 7,5 ~9 ~11 28% ~ C2C platformen Jaar van oprichting The number of C2C platforms is growing rapidly Alleen data beschikbaar van 2010 en groei , voor is een groei van 20% aangenomen (groei online markt was 19% p.a. in deze jaren) BRON: online search; Marktplaats.nl; Forrester Shopping

12 THE TECHNOLOGY Technology will grow closer to our body We will buy more at an instant and expect 1-hour delivery Shopping

13 THE COMPETION Competition will increase on all fronts Supplier Brands selling direct China selling direct New entrants Scrary 5 own the infrastructure Foreign players enter the market Extre price & service transparancy Consumer Spends less Group buying Substitutes Share economy is growing 3D printing is developing Shopping 2020

14 WHAT NOW? Five new business models will arise Klantaandeel Vertical Retailers (Brands) Generic Retailers (Portals) Specialist Retailers Market Makers Market space Optimizers Twilight zone Service Providers Market place Product / Marktaandeel Shopping

15 WHAT NOW? Competition will more from focusing on price and service to innovation This demands a new kind of organizational structure! Shopping

16 Table of Content What is Shopping2020? Key Findings Shopping2020 Action Plan Participation Possibilities Shopping

17 Shopping2020 will transform from research to action program in Shopping

18 Four strategies & nine action programs have been defined to prepare the Dutch market and it s companies for the Consumer of 2020 Four strategies Realized by nine programs A Programs for BV Netherlands B For Companies I II III Create a seamless customer journey across the on- and offline channels Position the Netherlands as the ecommerce country for innovation, logistics and entrepreneurship Increasing our (online) market by selling more across our borders E-ID One click buy The New Shopping Street Digital Gateway to Europe eaccelerator Level Playing Field X-border pipeline Further develop Shopping2020 as Knowlegdge Platform Communicate the results via: Road shows Master classes Conferences Etcetera Share know-how via the ecommerce handbook Train: the 7 success factors of modern entrepreneurship IV Realize this ambition in a sustainable way ecommerce Footprint (Responsible) Advertising 2020 Shopping

19 Activation programs for companies Communicate the findings via roadshows, event, master classes, Share know-how by writing the 2020 handbook with experts Train: the 7 success factors for modern entrepreneurship Ik Know my existing and potential customers Have organized my customer experience Use the relevant technologies Have a clear role in the value chain Have optimized my customer reach Am organized to realize my objectives Can change fast and flexible Shopping

20 Part of the Shopping2020 Actionplan is to write the 2020 Handbook The handbook is written and maintained by the expert groups Online Branding Basic Supply chain mgt. Social Media Usability & design Warehousing Online Security Product Information Mgt. Best Practices Affiliate Marketing Product Photography Search Engine Adv. Analytics & Big Data Seach Engine Opt. Merchandising Campaign Management Advanced issues Market Places Marketing Customer Care Content Marketing Finance & Fraud Social Monitoring Scientific Research Customer Retention Delivery & Return Mgt. Retail Packaging Shopping

21 Shopping2020 Sector & Company Activation Program 2014 / 2015 Activating companies by sharing the Shopping2020 Insights Program Board Meeting Shopping2020 Synthese Company Master classes Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Shopping2020 Roadshow Sector Events eretail Modint DNW2020 NUVO RCC Gebra ANVR Shopping Tomorrow Expert Group Meetings Shopping Today Multichannel award Seattle Study Trip Shopping Time New York Study Trip Shopping Together/Diner registration nominees awards Shopping

22 The Shopping2020 Program Organization for 2014 Board of Recommendation Program Board Ed Nijpels (voorzitter) Bernard Wientjes (VNO-NCW) Leendert-Jan Visser (MKB NL) Arie van Bellen (Directeur ECP) Martijn van Dam (kamerlid PvdA) Jan Kees de Jager (vml. Min. Financiën) Cor Molenaar (Erasmus Universiteit) Kitty Koelemeijer (Universiteit Nyenrode) Walther Ploos van Amstel (Vrije Universiteit) Erik Fledderus (Directeur TNO) Heleen van Oord (Directeur DQ&A) Giovanni Colauto (CEO Bijenkorf) Harry Bruijniks (CEO Euretco) Ronald van Zetten (CEO Hema) Joost Romeijn (CEO Sundio Group) Paul Nijhof (CEO 3 Suisses) Annemarie van Gaal (CEO van Gaal & Co.) Dick Boer (CEO Ahold) Herna Verhagen (CEO PostNL) Nick Jue (CEO ING NL) Michiel Buitelaar (vml. COO Sanoma) Danny van der Eijk (Chairman Achmea) Harry van Dorenmalen (CEO IBM Europe) Support Team Program mgt: Jorij Abraham Mar/Com: Inge Demoed Research: Eveline Poerink Congres: Marin Wiellersen Travel Retail Finance Action Program Teams E-ID One Click Buy The New Shopping Street Digital Gateway to Europe E-Accelerator Level Playing Field Dutch Export Pipeline E-Commerce Footprint Advertising2020 Key Themes Expert Groups Nieuw ondernemen Concept Modelling Cross Border (e)commerce Omnichannel Organisatie Winkel Concepten De Slimme Winkel Commerce Platforms Mobile Commerce Agile Development System Integration Wetgeving Orientation Selection Transaction Delivery Customer Care (Online) Branding Market Places Usability & design Payment & Refunding Purchasing & Supply chain Customer Service Customer Journey Expert Groups Direct Marketing Performance Based Search Engine Marketing Content Marketing. Merchandising Product Photography Product Info. Mgt. Fraud Management Hosting & Security Warehousing & Returns Retail Packaging Delivery & Service. Brand Monitoring Analytics & Big Data Customer Retention Founding Partners: Kennis partners: Wetenschappelijke partners: Netwerk partners: Media partners: Shopping

23 The expert groups have as main goal to write a chapter in the handbook The set-up of each expert group is as follows Goal: Write a chapter for the handbook including both basics, best practices, solutions to advances issues and links to further reading Optionally do further research into a specific area within the expert group s field of interest. Experts: Specialists who are known for their expertise (e.g. professors, researchers, consultants). Retailers (goods & services) who are endreponsible for the expert group theme within their company. Experts are invited in close cooperation between the chairman and host of the expert group and Shopping2020. Method: The book is writing using Wikimedia as platform. Each expert group meets 4 5 times to discuss specific content of the chapter. Goals is to create a print version end January Obligations for experts: Share expertise and own insights Write sub-sections of the chapter Learn & have fun Obligations for the expert group chairman Chair the expert group meetings Coordinate the writing of the chapter Guard the quality of the chapter s content Obligations for the expert group host Facilitate the expert group meetings Participate as expert within the group Support Shopping2020 financially Shopping

24 Roadshow & Master classes The road show is open for all local companies Master classes: Are given at individual companies meant for (higher) management and board level Time slot: 1 3 hours Presentations focus on the overall findings. At request a detailed presentation of one or more expert groups can be given. Roadshows: Goal is to organize a roadshow in each province together with local city counsels Entrance is free for members of participating associations & local SME retailers*. Registration is mandatory at Shopping2020.nl Set-up: 17:30 Coffee, Tea & Sandwiches 18:00 Introduction Shopping :15 Trends, Scenario s & Ambition 19:15 Break (Coffee & Tea) 19:30 How to prepare for 2020? 21:00 Discussion & end of event * If supported by local city counsel. No accessible for service providers. Shopping

25 Shopping Today: The Shopping Event of the Year (23th of September) Sharing consumer trends, insights & best practices about shopping in Retail, Travel & Finance Keynote speaker Keynote speaker Keynote speaker Retail Finance Travel Cross Border Twinkle Top 100 Keynote speaker Keynote speaker Networking Drink Multi Channel Awards Shopping

26 USA Study Trips: Seattle & New York Goal: Inspire companies & create urge for change. Target group: Board of Directors & C-level. Draft Seattle Program 2014: 28/9: Arrival 29/9: Visit Shop.org Annual Conferences Day 1 30/9: Visit Shop.org Annual Conferences Day 2 1/10 and 2/10: Visit Amazon, REI, Nordstrom, Expedia, Microsoft, Nike, etcetera. 3/10: Departure Draft New York Program 2015: 8/1: Arrival 9/1 and 10/1: Visit Multichannel best practices and New York Alley companies 11/1: Day off 12/1: Visit NRF Big Retail Show 2015 Day 1 13/1: Visit NRF Big Retail Show 2015 Day 2 14/1: Departure Investment: p/p per trip (only for participants). Shopping

27 Table of Content What is Shopping2020? Key Findings Shopping2020 Action Plan Participation Possibilities Shopping

28 Participation of Industry Associations in Shopping2020 Industry Associations can become member of the Program Board of Shopping2020 Benefits for Associations: Access to the program board of Shopping 2020 to jointly steer the defined actions. Promotion of own brand (listed at Shopping2020 website, reports, etc.). Shopping2020 synthesis can be published under own association name* Access to the reports created by the experts. Association members have the right to access: ShoppingTomorrow: 2 persons. ShoppingToday: 3 persons. ShoppingTogether: all members** Association members receive a discount of 200 for access to ShoppingToday. Support of own event with Shopping2020 content & experts. Access right to USA Seattle (additional: p/p) & New York study trips ( p/p). Base investment: * With clear reference to Shopping2020 and its participants. ** Depending if Shopping2020 can be hosted at the WWVD again. Shopping

29 Participation by City Counsels & Municipalities in Shopping2020 City counsels and municipalities can become City Partner of Shopping2020 City Partner Benefits: Access to the Shopping2020 network of more than 100 retailers and 460 business experts. Local companies receive a discount of 200 for access to ShoppingToday. Access to the Shopping Today conference on the 25 th of September (max. 3 persons). Access to all expert group reports. Access to the final report for all local businesses. The right to publish the final report under own name for the local business community*. An exclusive Master class of all Shopping2020 findings at a facility of the city/municipality. Promotion of the own city/municipality as City Partner Shopping2020 (listed at Shopping2020 website, reports, etc.). Access right to USA Seattle (additional: p/p) & New York study trips ( p/p). City Partners of Shopping2020 Investment: * With clear reference to Shopping2020 and its participants. Shopping

30 Participation of B2C Selling companies in Shopping2020 B2C Selling companies can become Premium Participant in Shopping2020 Premium Participant Benefits: Employees (max. 3) can participate for free in the expert groups of Shopping2020. Access to all Shopping2020 expert group reports and synthesis for internal use. Promotion of own brand (listed at Shopping2020 website, reports, etc.). Free entrance.to the three planned conferences: ShoppingTomorrow: 1 person; ShoppingToday: 3 persons; ShoppingTogether: free Additional employees receive a discount of 200 for access to ShoppingToday. In company Master class about Shopping2020 findings including all GfK research results. Access right to USA Seattle (additional: p/p) & New York study trips ( p/p). Premium Partners in 2013 Investment: Shopping

31 Founding Partners of Shopping2020 Service Providers can become Founding Partner of Shopping2020 Network benefits Host of an expert group of Shopping2020: Expert group meeting at own location First choice of an expert group theme Access to all Road Show meetings. Access to the ShoppingToday, Tomorrow & Together events (max. 3 p). Founding Partners in 2013 Knowledge benefits: Access to all expert group reports & synthesis. The right to publish the synthesis & expert group report under own brand name*. An in company master class of all Shopping2020 results. Branding benefits: Keynote slot at ShoppingToday with an A-brand client. Promotion of own brand as Founding Partner of Shopping2020 (events, website, reports, etc.). Access right to USA Seattle (additional: p/p) & New York study trips ( p/p). Investment: (split 50/50 over 2014/15) * With clear reference to Shopping2020 and its participants and after written approval of Shopping Shopping

32 Expert group Hosts of Shopping2020 Service Providers can become Expert Group Host of Shopping2020 Network benefits Host of an expert group of Shopping2020: Expert group meeting at own location Jointly determine research theme Access to the ShoppingToday, Tomorrow & Together events (max. 3 p). Expert group Hosts in 2013 Knowledge benefits: Access to all expert group reports & synthesis. The right to publish the synthesis & expert group report under own brand name*. An in company master class of all Shopping2020 results. Branding benefits: Track slot at ShoppingToday to present group findings. Promotion of own brand as Expert Group Host of Shopping2020 (conference, website, reports, etc.). Access right to USA Seattle (additional: p/p) & New York study trips ( p/p). Investment: (can be split over 2014/ 15) * With clear reference to Shopping2020 and its participants and after written approval of Shopping Shopping

33 The Shopping2020 Team Jorij Abraham Programma Management E: M: Inge Demoed Marketing Communication E: M: Eveline Poerink Expert Group Coordination E: M: Marin Wiellersen Event Organization E: M: Shopping

ecommerce Industry Outlook 2016 Satisfying shoppers who want anything, anywhere, anytime!

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