Pervasive Video What s Ahead? And Why

Transcription

1 Pervasive Video What s Ahead? And Why Mobile, Social, Virtual, and Visual Andrew W. Davis Sr. Analyst & Partner andrewwd@wainhouse.com 1

2 Today s Discussion Current market data Technology changes affecting your business The cultural shift Channel partner challenges and advice to the lovelorn 2

3 But first a pop quiz 3

4 QUIZ: What important industry event took place on March 10, Cisco made its first acquisition 2. The first pixel was discovered in Norway 3. Microsoft introduced Lync Server Alexander Graham Bell demonstrated the first telephone call 4

5 What did Alexander Graham Bell say? 1. Can you hear me now? 2. Who just joined the call? 3. Please hold the anchovies 4. Hit star six to mute. 5

6 The real answer.. Mr. Watson, come here, I want to see you. And hence, the need for video conferencing was established! 6

7 Market Data & Forecast 7

8 Endpoint Shipment History Endpoint Revenues Endpoint Units $2, ,000 $2,000 $1, , , ,000 $1, ,000 $ ,000 50,000 $0 Y97 Y98 Y99 Y00 Y01 Y02 Y03 Y04 Y05 Y06 Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11 Y12 0 Y97 Y98 Y99 Y00 Y01 Y02 Y03 Y04 Y05 Y06 Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11 Y12 Y/Y Revenue Growth Y/Y Unit Growth 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% -10% Y97 Y98 Y99 Y00 Y01 Y02 Y03 Y04 Y05 Y06 Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11 Y12 0% -10% Y97 Y98 Y99 Y00 Y01 Y02 Y03 Y04 Y05 Y06 Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11 Y12-20% -20% 8

9 Recent History EP & IF $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Endpoints & Infrastructure Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 CALA APAC EMEA NA 9

10 Q Market Shares Endpoint + IF Market Share Others 8% TeamChina 27% Polycom 21% Avaya 3% Cisco 41% 10

11 Market Forecast

12 Services Forecast Details

13 Six Technology Trends Affecting Your Business 13

14 1 Unified Communications 14

15 UC & Video: Customer Benefits Familiar UI reduces intimidation Video as feature makes roll outs easier Compatible with wide variety of endpoints Easier integration into business processes Supports ad hoc & scheduled meetings 15

16 Information Week 2013 Survey (reality check) % of companies with UC deployments % % 47% deployed to <25% of workers

17 A Dose of UC Reality Relative Sizes Enterprise Workers 10 Enterprise Workers with UC 1 Enterprise Workers with Mobile UC UC on mobile clients is over-hyped and under-deployed 17

18 Y2013 Customer Survey (end users) What is your organization s 2013 plan for MOBILE video conferencing and UC? Our UC plan will include a mobile client WITH video conferencing Don't know We will support mobile video conferencing independent of any UC We have no plan to support mobile communications Our UC plan will NOT include a mobile client Our UC plan will include a mobile client WITHOUT video conferencing 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 18

19 Y2013 Channel Partner Survey Customers' Interests Mobile video conferencing Integrating VC with UC VC managed services Integrating VC with telephony Integrating Skype None Some Strong Very strong Immersive TP 0% 50% 100% 19

20 2 Hardware to Software 20

21 Maxims OLD Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster NEW Performance demands shifting from need more power to need lower cost, wider availability 21

22 3 WebRTC Open source framework for real-time communications within a browser Opens voice and video to any web programmer 22

23 WebRTC: Customer Benefits Familiar browser UI reduces intimidation Supports B2B and B2C communications Compatible with wide variety of endpoints, including mobile Will be integrated into virtually every vendor and service provider offering 23

24 4 CPE to Cloud 24

25 The Customer s Perspective CPE CLOUD HYBRID Cost High CapEx High recurring Could be best of both or worst of both Management Manage all assets with internal resources or managed service Manage routers and network only, not servers and apps Manage cloud provider Use internal IT resources for business Manage integration of the two Manage dual environment Security Internal Control External Control Need to secure both sides plus interconnect 25

26 5 Switching Architectures 26

27 Switching: Customer Benefits Issue Cost Scale User Experience Interop Resolution No transcoding MCU required Switch / router can be software on a standard server Multi-way for 1/10 th or less of the cost per port! One router can support hundreds of calls Routers can work together to support a single call Routers can be software-based and virtualized No transcoding delay on multipoint No additional loss of signal quality Strong SVC network resiliency mobile friendly H.264 is an ITU standard SVC is in Microsoft Lync

28 6 Video Managed Services 28

29 Visual Communications Strategies CapEx OpEx Do It Yourself: Build internal team Integrate, deploy, support Outsource to Expert: Free up tech & mgmt resources Monitor success and costs Facilitate technology refresh 29

30 Y2013 Channel Partner Survey Fastest Growing Segments Other 3% One time services 14% Resale of products 28% Recurring services 55% Recurring services Resale of products One time services Other 30

31 A Hitchhikers Guide to the Video Galaxy Millennial Information Workers Mobile and Personal Devices Scale New Technology Focus on Core Competence Quality Infrastructure Reliability Virtual Servers X86 HW to SW VaaS Managed Hosted Calling Web conferencing 31

32 Cultural Shifts Affecting Your Business 32

33 A Brief History of Videoconferencing Alex G. Bell H323 IP video LifeSize HD New-normal economics & technology Earth cools ISDN intro UC & SIP Cisco TP Vidyo SVC (1/08) Everything TP Mobile Social Visual Virtual 33

34 Digital Natives A way of working A way of living A way of thinking Millennials tweet, text, and IM through the day 34

35 Digital Immigrants Grew up without the technology Understand and use technology, but don t live by it Prefer more formal, in-person meetings and discussions 35

36 End User Survey Pressure from Younger Workers None of the above Presence/IM Video solutions Work at home Mobile solutions 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 36

37 The Channel Partner Dilemma & Advice to the Lovelorn 37

38 Video Conferencing is Changing Deployments Technology Customer Focus Conference room Full Service Premise-based Hardware Dedicated app Travel savings Desktop & mobile Self Service Cloud-based Software Browser & UC-based Innovation, decision making, & retention 38

39 Caution. Many technology and deployment changes may change the customer s purchasing decision maker 39

40 The Large Enterprise View TODAY Dozens or scores of video-enabled conference rooms A few hundred Microsoft Lync users in trial deployment 2 or 3 vendors for audio and web conferencing TOMORROW Tens of thousands of desktop and mobile video clients Integration between Lync and non-lync users One environment for come as you are workspaces 40

41 The SMB View TODAY Zero to 4 room systems A few people on Skype One vendor for audio and web conferencing TOMORROW Cloud services for audio-video-web Internal and external calling with transparent connectivity Support for home and remote workers 41

42 Impact of Personal on Room VC If your organization were to deploy large numbers of personal and web-based video conferencing systems (video-enabled laptops, desktops, tablets, smartphones), what impact would that have on your organization s interest in room-based video conferencing systems? Y2011 Don't Know 11% Y2013 Decline 19% Don't Know 19% Grow 27% No Impact 35% Decline 20% Grow 27% No Impact 42% 42

43 Y2013 Channel Partner Survey Customers are confused by the many options between video conferencing, web conferencing with integrated video, and UC. The poor macro-economic climate. External Challenges Customers are trying to decide on a services vs. products strategy Conveying the value of video conferencing or UC to prospects No customer demand or budget for video conferencing or UC Interest in mobile solutions has created a "wait and see" situation WebRTC is causing a "wait and see" effect in the marketplace Other: 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 43

44 Channel Partner Survey 100% Skype is a Threat to My Business 10% 13% 15% 15% 100% Threats to My Business 80% 34% 80% 60% 40% 20% 68% 53% 62% 63% Not sure Disagree Agree 60% 40% 20% Not sure Disagree Agree 0% 22% 23% 22% Y2010 Y2011 Y2012 Y2013 0% Skype-2013 WebRTC

45 DO Help Customers Build a Business Case Identify goals Get end user buy in, not just IT department Establish champion, cross functional team, and C level sponsor Deploy technology against goals align business and technical requirements Measure before and after results (not easy) Drive adoption 45

46 Key Takeaways People are frustrated about video They view video as complicated And they don t know what to buy But they know video is strategic They see video as game-changing They know video is THE FUTURE So Opportunity is Knocking!

47 DO Help Customers Find Real Value Recognize the difference between hard and soft benefits Hard Easily quantifiable Soft Usually deliver more value 47

48 Finding Value beyond ROI Operational Cut costs (travel, telephony, real estate) Support workforce virtualization Productivity More efficient workers, less human latency More inclusion, better decisions Shorter time to market Reduced management stress Strategic Business transformation & improvement Innovation Sexier recruiting Hard Soft Squishy Wainhouse Research, Research, Inc. All rights LLC. reserved. 48

49 Real Value beyond ROI Biggest factor in perceived VC & UC success User Satisfaction Least important factor in perceived success Cost savings Biggest factors in building a customer relationship #1: Focus on solving customer s business problem #2: Responsiveness in support situations #3: Price competitiveness 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% VC Customers' Perceived Benefits 82% Increased Efficiency Increased Impact Expedited Decisions Reduced Travel Costs 49

50 DON T Keep Saying Video saves travel (who travels anymore?) Video is low cost Video is easy Everyone needs video Video will replace audio (only in deviant subcultures) 50

51 Changing the way you do business. It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change Charles Darwin 51 51

52 About Wainhouse Research Independent Research and Analyst Firm Founded in 1999 with HQ in Boston, MA Exclusively Focused Conferencing and Collaboration Unified Communications Rich Media Technologies WR provides our clients with the information they need to make informed decisions about conferencing and collaboration. Key Services Market Intelligence & Research Reports Market Size, Forecast,Research Notes Strategic Advisory Services UC&C Planning, Product & Business Positioning End-user Services Needs & Situational Assessments, RFPs Guest Speaking Industry Insights, Educational Briefings, Customer Seminars 52

53 About Your Presenter Co-founder (1999) & Partner at Wainhouse Research More than 15 years in video conferencing market Research Focus Visual Collaboration Unified Communications Companies, products, services, technologies Client Base Vendors Channel Partners End user companies Financials (hedge funds, investors, M&A specialists) 53

54 Thank You Andrew W. Davis 54